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Why Idera Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Shares Popped

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Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Idera Pharmaceuticals , a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing DNA and RNA-based therapeutics for autoimmune diseases, advanced as much as 13% after announcing the publication of preclinical data with regard to treating psoriasis.

So what: According to Idera's press release, the publication, Suppression of Molecular Inflammatory Pathways by Toll-Like Receptor 7, 8, and 9 Antagonists in a Model of IL-23-Induced Skin Inflammation, noted in testing on mice that antagonists of TLR's 7 and 9 normalized expression of IL-17 induced genes, which are involved in the inflammatory pathway. Further analysis from this study showed all the TLR's (7, 8, and 9) "down-regulated the JAK-STAT, IL-23, IL-12, and IL-17 canonical pathways," resulting in a hypothesis that "IL-23-driven inflammation in mouse skin may be dependent on signaling mediated by TLR's 7, 8 and 9."


Now what: Without getting too scientific here, what the above data simply demonstrates is that inhibiting specific toll-like receptors in mice demonstrated efficacy that would suggest these TLR's could be a therapeutic target for the treatment of psoriasis. Idera is currently conducting a mid-stage trial involving IMO-8400, an antagonist of TLR's 7, 8, and 9 for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plague psoriasis, lending excitement that its study will deliver positive results. As for me, while I find this new treatment pathway exciting, I'd wait for the results from Idera's trial before even considering the thought of sending this wholly clinical-stage company's stock any higher.

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The article Why Idera Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Shares Popped originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor  Sean Williams has no material interest in any companies mentioned in this article. You can follow him on CAPS under the screen name  TMFUltraLong , track every pick he makes under the screen name  TrackUltraLong , and check him out on Twitter, where he goes by the handle  @TMFUltraLong . Try any of our Foolish newsletter services  free for 30 days . We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that  considering a diverse range of insights  makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a  disclosure policy .

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Where the Money Is: January 22

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We take a look at the earnings reports you've overlooked! Join Motley Fool analysts Matt Koppenheffer and David Hanson as they discuss Gold vs. Bitcoin, Elon Musk's brilliance, and dip into their mailbag.

Looking for massive growth opportunities in 2014?
They said it couldn't be done. But David Gardner has proved them wrong time, and time, and time again with stock returns like 926%, 2,239%, and 4,371%. In fact, just recently one of his favorite stocks became a 100-bagger. And he's ready to do it again. You can uncover his scientific approach to crushing the market and his carefully chosen six picks for ultimate growth instantly, because he's making this premium report free for you today. Click here now for access.

The article Where the Money Is: January 22 originally appeared on Fool.com.

David Hanson owns shares of BB&T;, JPMorgan Chase, and PNC Financial Services. Matt Koppenheffer owns shares of Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and PNC Financial Services. The Motley Fool recommends Bank of America, SolarCity, Tesla Motors, and Wells Fargo. The Motley Fool owns shares of Bank of America, Huntington Bancshares, JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial Services, SolarCity, Tesla Motors, and Wells Fargo. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Boeing Announces 2014 Deliveries for China and General Dynamics Beats Estimates

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Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over daily movements, we do like to keep an eye on market changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

Without any major economic data releases today the market is struggling to find direction, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 0.25% lower in midafternoon trading. As of this morning only 65 members of the S&P 500 index have posted quarterly earnings; look for the market to find direction in the new year as more of those earnings turn out for the better or worse. Bloomberg reported that roughly two-thirds of the earnings so far have beaten profit and revenue estimates. Here are some companies making headlines today.

Boeing , one of the Dow's most-weighted components, is trading 1.9% higher today after announcing it would this year deliver roughly 140 aircraft to China, the world's second largest economy. This will be something for investors of the aviation juggernaut to watch going forward. Boeing already has a massive backlog of orders worth roughly $415 billion, and that's a figure likely to grow when the company releases its fourth-quarter results on Jan. 29. Now it's time for the company to ramp up production and start increasing deliveries to customers in a timely fashion. Successful operations in those areas will have a direct impact on the stock's potential over the next few years. 


Outside the Dow, General Dynamics this morning topped estimates on earnings and revenue in its fourth-quarter report. Revenue in the fourth quarter totaled $8.1 billion. The company produced earnings from continuing operations of $624 million, or $1.76 per share on a fully diluted basis. Net earnings came in at $495 million, or $1.40 per share, due to a $129 million loss in discontinued operations related to the A-12 aircraft litigation settlement. 

For the full year, company margins checked in at 11.8%, an increase from last year's low 2.6%. General Dynamics' backlog of orders checked in at $46 billion at the end of 2013; when you include management's estimates of "indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity," or IDIQ, contracts the figure balloons to $73.6 billion. That's more than double the amount of revenue generated by General Dynamics last year.

Going forward, investors will need to keep tabs on how U.S. defense budget cuts hurt General Dynamics' combat and marine systems segments. So far it appears its aerospace segment is growing strong enough to offset potential declines in thse sectors, but it will definitely be a situation to keep tabs on in 2014.

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The article Boeing Announces 2014 Deliveries for China and General Dynamics Beats Estimates originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Daniel Miller has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of General Dynamics. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Valve's Steambox Is a Serious Contender in the Console Wars

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A new test version of Valve's Steam OS includes a virtual reality (VR) mode. Fool contributor Tim Beyers says it's another reason to think of the company's forthcoming Steambox as a serious contender in the console wars in in the following video.

VR isn't for everyone, obviously. But some of the most exciting games at CES 2014 were playable in VR mode -- none more so than Oculus Rift, which captivated playtesters and journalists alike. That Steam is now heading for seamless playability of such an advanced game speaks to the potential for the Steambox, Tim argues.

What's more, the device purports to be completely open and upgradable. That's a big departure from what we've seen in the traditional console market, where each system is self-contained and publishers work years to tailor each game to a specific platform. Think of Take-Two Interactive and Rockstar Games, which had invested far too much code and time in Sony's PS3 and Microsoft's Xbox 360 to even consider making a version of Grand Theft Auto 5 for the PS4 and Xbox One.


Steam won't change the dynamics of the console market overnight, of course. But in making an open, upgrade system capable of handling a huge volume of console and PC games, Valve could change what gamers expect, and in turn, how publishers serve them.

Do you agree? Did you get a chance to see the Steambox prototypes or Oculus Rift at CES 2014? Please watch the video to get Tim's full take and then leave a comment to let us know how you see Valve impacting the gaming industry in the years to come.

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The article Valve's Steambox Is a Serious Contender in the Console Wars originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Tim Beyers is a member of the  Motley Fool Rule Breakers stock-picking team and the Motley Fool Supernova Odyssey I mission. He didn't own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article at the time of publication. Check out Tim's web home and portfolio holdings or connect with him on Google+Tumblr, or Twitter, where he goes by @milehighfool. You can also get his insights delivered directly to your RSS reader.The Motley Fool recommends Take-Two Interactive. The Motley Fool owns shares of Microsoft. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Is Windstream Holdings, Inc. Destined for Greatness?

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Investors love stocks that consistently beat the Street without getting ahead of their fundamentals and risking a meltdown. The best stocks offer sustainable market-beating gains, with robust and improving financial metrics that support strong price growth. Does Windstream Holdings Inc fit the bill? Let's take a look at what its recent results tell us about its potential for future gains.

What we're looking for
The graphs you're about to see tell Windstream's story, and we'll be grading the quality of that story in several ways:

  • Growth: Are profits, margins, and free cash flow all increasing?
  • Valuation: Is share price growing in line with earnings per share?
  • Opportunities: Is return on equity increasing while debt to equity declines?
  • Dividends: Are dividends consistently growing in a sustainable way?

What the numbers tell you
Now, let's take a look at Windstream's key statistics:


WIN Total Return Price Chart

WIN Total Return Price data by YCharts.

Passing Criteria

3-Year* Change

Grade

Revenue growth > 30%

73.5%

Pass

Improving profit margin

(75.7%)

Fail

Free cash flow growth > Net income growth

1.4% vs. (57.8%)

Pass

Improving EPS

(68.6%)

Fail

Stock growth (+ 15%) < EPS growth

(11.5%) vs. (68.6%)

Fail

Source: YCharts. * Period begins at end of Q3 2010.

WIN Return on Equity (TTM) Chart

WIN Return on Equity (TTM) data by YCharts.

Passing Criteria

3-Year* Change

Grade

Improving return on equity

(82.8%)

Fail

Declining debt to equity

(4.7%)

Pass

Dividend growth > 25%

0%

Fail

Free cash flow payout ratio < 50%

80.4%

Fail

Source: YCharts. * Period begins at end of Q3 2010.

How we got here and where we're going
Things don't look good for Windstream -- the telecom services provider earns a measly two out of nine possible passing grades. Although Windstream's revenue has soared over the past three years, the company's profit margins have collapsed as it struggles to build out the infrastructure necessary to support its next-gen offerings. Windstream has been an income investor favorite thanks to its hefty dividend yield, but this payout has been flat and its free cash flow payout ratio seems unmanageably high at present. Let's dig a little deeper to find out what Windstream is currently doing to overcome its fundamental weaknesses.

Over the past few years, regional telecoms Windstream and CenturyLink have both faced major headwinds in high-margin areas like enterprise telecom and residential broadband. The rising demand for smartphones has siphoned customers away from landlines, which has forced regional telecom providers to build out their high-speed Internet, digital video, and enterprise businesses. Fool contributor Chad Henage notes that AT&T , Verizon, and Windstream all reported landline losses of at least 6% in their current quarters, so the landline exodus is nationwide and hardly confined to regional providers. However, Windstream's dividend yield, presently above 12% despite losing customers in its core segments, has held up above its telecom peers for at least a year since Frontier Communications was forced to slash its payouts:

WIN Dividend Yield (TTM) Chart

WIN Dividend Yield (TTM) data by YCharts.

Quite recently, Windstream's management had to reassure investors that the company generates enough amount free cash flow to support quarterly dividend payouts. While Windstream's free cash flow payout ratio is high, it's not too far out of line with those of larger rivals AT&T and Verizon -- the free cash flow payout ratio for these three companies presently hold roughly 80%, 78%, and 61%, respectively. After its dividend cut, Frontier Communications now appears to boast the most defensible payout of the bunch, as its free cash flow payout ratio is more than 50% at present.

Windstream also has a humongous debt load of more than $8.8 billion, which could hinder progress and force it to slash shareholder distributions in the near future if it fails to find new avenues of post-landline growth. Frontier is already threatening Windstream in the rural telecom market thanks to its pending acquisition of AT&T's wireline business and its Connecticut-based fiber network for $2 billion. Morgan Stanley downgraded Windstream to a sell rating two months ago over concerns regarding the sustainability of its dividends.

Fool contributor Dan Caplinger notes that Windstream has high hopes in the cloud computing market, as it's opened several data centers in key strategic locations in the U.S. The company is now building a fourth enterprise-class data center in Charlotte to meet the surging customer demand. While Windstream and Frontier have faced difficulties convincing rural customers to sign up for high-speed Internet and video services, CenturyLink has done better at retaining its voice customers while boosting broadband and video subscriber counts. It will be interesting to see how Windstream tries to take on Frontier and CenturyLink in the enterprise-services business over the next few quarters.

Putting the pieces together
Today, Windstream has few of the qualities that make up a great stock, but no stock is truly perfect. Digging deeper can help you uncover the answers you need to make a great buy -- or to stay away from a stock that's going nowhere.

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The article Is Windstream Holdings, Inc. Destined for Greatness? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Alex Planes has no position in any stocks mentioned, and neither does The Motley Fool. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Starbucks, McDonald's, and Marriott Have an Edge in This Important Category

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Given the nature of the U.S. workforce, there's a good chance that you or someone in your family have to travel for business, or have had to in the past. Regardless of when your business travel occurred, try to think of where you spent the most money on restaurants, airlines, and hotels.

Based on the title of this article, you've probably already guessed that Starbucks McDonald's , and Marriott  benefit greatly from business travel spending. What are the actual numbers? And are these trends likely to continue? 

Dominating breakfast
Based on a study conducted by Certify -- a travel and expense report management company -- if you're a business traveler and you're hungry, then you're most likely to spend your money at Starbucks or McDonald's.


According to the study, business travelers are most likely to visit Starbucks for breakfast. This makes sense because Starbucks sells highly caffeinated coffee that gives business travelers an extra kick to complete a day's tasks. Once someone gets hooked on Starbucks coffee, it's unlikely they will ever give it up. It doesn't hurt that caffeine is mildly addictive.

Another positive for Starbucks is that most of its locations offer a comfortable atmosphere and free Wi-Fi service, which gives a business traveler an opportunity to catch up on work prior to an important meeting. Furthermore, it's possible that this business traveler will then order more coffee or a snack while working there. This leads to increased sales for Starbucks. 

Based on the Certify study, 14% of business travelers choose Starbucks for breakfast, which gives Starbucks the largest piece of the business-traveler market-share pie for breakfast. These business travelers spend an average of $8.44 on breakfast.

What about lunch and dinner? 

Dominating lunch and dinner
Business travelers are more likely to frequent McDonald's than any other restaurant for lunch and dinner. This might surprise you, but remember that McDonald's can be found in almost any city or town, it sells coffee, and it's quick.

The average amount of money business travelers spend at McDonald's for lunch: $7.19. The average for dinner: $7.47.

Given McDonald's presence in almost every city and town across the United States, this trend is likely to continue. According to the Global Business Travel Association, domestic business traveler spending is expected to increase 6.6% to $289.8 billion in 2014. This is a potential sales catalyst for McDonald's. The Global Business Travel Association also expects outbound international business traveler spending to increase 12.5% to $36.7 billion. No problem there, considering McDonald's has such a strong international presence.

Food is the biggest expense for business travelers, making up 25% of spending. You might think airlines or hotels would represent the largest piece of the pie, but not all business travel requires flight, and not all business travel is overnight.

Below are some other interesting numbers to consider. 

Other business travel winners
Delta Air Lines is the airline used the most by business travelers. This is a positive for Delta. On the other hand, the average cost for a Delta Air Lines flight slipped to $391 in 2013 from $474 in $2012. Additionally, while business travelers used Delta the most frequently, this wasn't always by choice. Employees may have to use preferred vendors. The airline that received the highest traveler rating from business travelers was actually Southwest Airlines.

As far as hotels go, Hilton saw the most use in 2012, with business travelers spending an average of $271 per night. In 2013, Marriott supplanted Hilton to see the most use by business travelers. The average amount spent per stay at Marriott in 2013: $225. However, Marriott wasn't the hotel rated the highest by business travelers in 2013: That title belongs to Residence Inn. The good news is that Marriott owns Residence Inn.

The bottom line
If business travel is expected to increase in 2014 and the majority of business travelers prefer to visit Starbucks, McDonald's, and Marriott during their travels, then all three companies are likely to benefit from this trend.

Starbucks must contend with Dunkin' Brands adding locations in the Western United States, but this will be a lengthy process, so it should have no immediate impact on Starbucks. McDonald's must contend with Starbucks and Dunkin' Brands in the coffee wars, but McDonald's still offers the most in the way of food, which should keep business travelers coming back. Marriott sees a win-win thanks to its namesake brand seeing the most use and its Residence Inn brand being the most liked. 

These are all potential positive sales catalysts for the three companies mentioned above. Therefore, investors should consider digging deeper on these companies as investment options. However, this is only one piece of the puzzle for all three companies, and investors should do their own due diligence prior to making any investment decisions. 

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The article Starbucks, McDonald's, and Marriott Have an Edge in This Important Category originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Dan Moskowitz has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends McDonald's and Starbucks. The Motley Fool owns shares of McDonald's and Starbucks. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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The Big Opportunity for Fifth Street Finance Corp.

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Regulators are cracking down on big banks, like Bank of America, and what kind of deals they can participate in - which may spell opportunity for specialty lenders like Fifth Street Finance .

In this segment of The Motley Fool's financials-focused show, Where the Money Is, banking analysts Matt Koppenheffer and David Hanson discuss the outlook for big banks and how Fifth Street Finance can potentially step its game up.

Is Fifth Street the best dividend stock you can buy?
One of the dirty secrets that few finance professionals will openly admit is the fact that dividend stocks as a group handily outperform their non-dividend paying brethren. The reasons for this are too numerous to list here, but you can rest assured that it's true. However, knowing this is only half the battle. The other half is identifying which dividend stocks in particular are the best. With this in mind, our top analysts put together a free list of nine high-yielding stocks that should be in every income investor's portfolio. To learn the identity of these stocks instantly and for free, all you have to do is click here now.


The article The Big Opportunity for Fifth Street Finance Corp. originally appeared on Fool.com.

David Hanson has no position in any stocks mentioned. Matt Koppenheffer owns shares of Bank of America and The Blackstone Group L.P.. The Motley Fool recommends Bank of America. The Motley Fool owns shares of Bank of America. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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How This Watchmaker Will Continue to Grow

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Watchmaker Fossil has seen its share price drop roughly 13.6% over the past two months on news of slipping U.S. same-store sales. Despite this setback, the company has a five-point growth strategy that includes extending product categories of existing brands, introducing new brands, expanding international retail locations, and leveraging its existing infrastructure.

Expand the brands
Fossil makes fashion products under owned and licensed brands like SKAGEN, FOSSIL, Burberry, and Michael Kors , among others. The company views this as a competitive advantage and has focused the first two points of its growth strategy around introducing and expanding its existing brands.

Expanding the product category of existing brands refers to producing leather goods and jewelry in addition to growing its watch portfolio. These newer product categories have been notably successful in the European wholesale market, where they had double-digit sales increases in the most recent quarter. The company has also produced hats, gloves, and scarves under the FOSSIL brand name.


The company also introduces new products through development or acquisition of brands or licensing agreements. With a wide range of brands, Fossil can produce watches for consumers with different tastes and lifestyles. The company's current brands range from competing in the high-end luxury market to the more affordable mass market. The company is in the process of expanding its brands with new Tory Burch watches that are expected to launch across the world in late 2014.

Fossil designs, markets, produces, and distributes its wares. This infrastructure helps it to launch new products. This increases efficiency as the company expands and releases different brands and accessories.

As Fossil grows its brands, it faces competition from rival watchmaker Movado , which recently launched Scuderia Ferrari watches. The core product offerings of these watches range from $125 to $695 placing them in the moderate to premium watch markets. Movado also produces watches under popular brands like Coach, Lacoste, Tommy Hilfiger, and others.

More locations in more countries
The next two growth strategy points are expanding retail locations and international business. At the end of its third quarter of 2013, Fossil opened a net of 52 stores bringing the company-owned store count to 525. These stores allow Fossil to raise awareness of its brands by displaying the products in an environment that the company controls. The stores help Fossil present a consistent brand image and allow it to test new-product categories and designs that later influence merchandising and presentation at other retailers. Also, a large number of the new stores are being opened in foreign markets.

International expansion is fundamental in the company's long-term growth strategy. In the third quarter of 2013, the company had sales growth in Europe and Asia's wholesale markets of 28% and 7%, respectively. The company has been making large strides to increase brand awareness in China, and recently opened a store location in Hong Kong at Causeway Bay, a high-traffic tourist location. Fossil will also benefit from Michael Kors stores opening overseas. During its most recent quarter, Michael Kors opened 10 stores in Asia, bringing the total number of retail locations in Korea, China, and Southeast Asia to 87.

Final thoughts
Fossil recently reported shaky U.S. same-store sales, but with the company's plan for international, retail, and brand expansion, I think it will continue to grow. The company has a wide variety of recognizable brands that appeal to a broad market across the world. With the new Tory Burch watches due soon, the company will continue expanding its watch portfolio to provide consumers with a plethora of new products in 2014.

The article How This Watchmaker Will Continue to Grow originally appeared on Fool.com.

Ben Popkin has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Fossil and Michael Kors Holdings. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Why Penn West Petroleum Ltd Shares Plunged

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Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Penn West Petroleum Ltd sank 10% today after the oil and natural producer's Q4 update disappointed Wall Street.

So what: The stock has plunged in recent months on skepticism over management's turnaround initiatives, and today's Q4 update only reinforces those worries. While Penn West announced yet another "non-core" asset disposition for expected proceeds of $175 million, downbeat production guidance for 2014 suggests that a return to profitable growth will take much longer than expected.


Now what: Management now sees 2014 production of 101,000-106,000 boe per day, down from its prior view of 105,000-110,000 boe per day. "With a solid fourth quarter 2013 development program completed, Penn West is actively executing on its first quarter 2014 development programs with a total of $230 million of capital expenditures expected," the company reassured investors. "In the first quarter, 2014 Penn West has 3 rigs operating in the Cardium forecast to drill 15 (13 net) wells, 4 rigs operating in the Slave Point area forecast to drill 9 (9 net) wells, and 1 rig operating in the Viking forecast to drill 9 (9 net) wells." Given Penn West's worrisome production trend and asset sale-uncertainty, however, I'll take fellow Fool Matt DiLallo's suggestion to just watch from the sidelines.

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The article Why Penn West Petroleum Ltd Shares Plunged originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Brian Pacampara has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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1 Potential Catalyst to Send This Cheap Stock Soaring

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When investors think of Dr Pepper Snapple Group , a multibagger opportunity probably doesn't come to mind. After all, the company's No. 1 product -- Dr. Pepper -- is smack dab in the middle of the carbonated-drink category, which health-conscious consumers are beginning to shun for more healthy options. As a result, management expects net sales to be completely flat for fiscal 2013. 

In addition to a tough carbonated-drink climate, Dr Pepper failed to outperform the S&P 500 index over the past three years, though it did surpass the returns of megacompetitors Coca-Cola and PepsiCo .

DPS Total Return Price Chart


Dr Pepper Snapple Group total return price data by YCharts

Yet even in this situation, I believe that not only is Dr Pepper cheap right now, there's also one major catalyst for this company not priced into the stock. Getting in today -- in spite of touch economic conditions and general bearish sentiment -- could present investors with a multibagger opportunity.

Dr Pepper is cheap
To determine a stock's value, we can look at several different metrics -- P/E ratio, price/book value, and even dividend yield. No matter how you slice it, Dr Pepper looks cheap.

First, Dr Pepper has a P/E ratio of around 16. This is cheaper than competitors Coca-Cola (20) and PepsiCo (19) and also below the industry average of 20. But it's not just cheap when compared to competitors, it's also cheap when compared to itself over the past three years.

DPS PE Ratio (TTM) Chart

Dr Pepper Snapple Group P/E ratio (trailing-12 months) data by YCharts

Beyond the simple P/E ratio, Dr Pepper is cheap when considering its price/book value. 

Company Price/Book Value
Dr Pepper Snapple 4.22
Coca-Cola 5.46
Pepsi 5.68
Industry Average 253.2

And finally, Dr Pepper is cheap when considering its dividend yield -- currently sitting at 3.1%. This beats out Coca-Cola's 2.8% and PepsiCo's 2.9%. The dividend has been paid out every quarter since it was started in December 2009 and has increased 150% during that time.

Incredible portfolio
Dr Pepper isn't a one-trick pony. This company's portfolio is bursting at the seams with recognizable brands. It owns megabrands such as Dr Pepper, Snapple, and Country Time, as well as easily recognizable brands that include Hawaiian Punch, Yoo-hoo, 7-Up, and A&W Root Beer. It even controls small brands with cult-like followings like Sun Drop and Cactus Cooler.

However the company doesn't just have a large beverage portfolio but a diversified snack division as well with its Mott's brand. Since this brand is mostly natural fruit products, it gives the company a bit of a buffer as consumers change habits. While the Dr Pepper brand was down 1% in the last quarter, Mott's was up 1%.

While not as diverse as PepsiCo, Dr Pepper does have enough diversification to steady itself during tough times.

The potential catalyst
Dr Pepper's management is blaming flat results on a tough consumer environment, and potential investors do need to heed this assessment. But one issue not being talked about is the impact of Dr Pepper's current market penetration.

According to Beverage Digest's top-10 brands by sales, Dr Pepper is No. 5 and Diet Dr Pepper is No. 10, gobbling up 6.5% and 1.8% of the United States' market share in 2012 (the most recent data compilation), respectively. Sure, it's still a long ways from Coca-Cola's industry-leading 17% market share, but two top-10 brands is nothing to sneeze at.

This data shows that Dr. Pepper doesn't have too much room to grow domestically, but therein lies the hidden opportunity. Currently the company only does business in North America, leaving a huge international runway for growth. Consider that in 2008, only 8% of Monster Beverage's sales came from abroad.

In fiscal 2012 (the latest full-year results) international sales made up 22% of the company's sales and accounted for 31% of the company's sales growth. Although it already has a presence in more than 90 countries, this growth trend will continue as it makes investments in big economies like South Korea and India.

For Dr Pepper, the ball is already rolling. In March it announced that it had reobtained the distribution rights from Mondeléz International for Snapple (and other beverages) in key Asian-Pacific countries like Japan, South Korea, and China. This move is likely a signal that management is beginning to think toward international expansion -- the greatest untapped opportunity this company has.

It's worth mentioning that this is an opportunity that Coca-Cola and PepsiCo don't have anymore. With a large international presence already, these two companies have already capitalized on the market that awaits Dr Pepper.

The multibagging conclusion
An investment in any carbonated-beverage manufacturer is not without risk. A mild consumer shift is happening. But I believe there's very little downside in a Dr Pepper Snapple investment. With its low valuation and better than 3% dividend yield, it should at the very least continue to perform with the market.

But should the company capitalize on its tremendous international opportunity, this stock could become a multibagger.

What would Buffett do?
Warren Buffett has made billions through his investing and he wants you to be able to invest like him. Through the years, Buffett has offered up investing tips to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. Now you can tap into the best of Warren Buffett's wisdom in a new special report from The Motley Fool. Click here now for a free copy of this invaluable report.

 

The article 1 Potential Catalyst to Send This Cheap Stock Soaring originally appeared on Fool.com.

Jon Quast has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Coca-Cola, Monster Beverage, and PepsiCo. The Motley Fool owns shares of Coca-Cola, Monster Beverage, and PepsiCo. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Can Sodastream International Ltd Pop Back?

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Last week was brutal for Sodastream International Ltd  shareholders, as the global leader of home carbonation surrendered 22% of its value. The pessimism is warranted. SodaStream's refreshed outlook for the holiday quarter calls for it to post a small profit on a 26% uptick in sales. 

SodaStream disappointed, and the market did what it does nearly every time that it sees that happen. 

However, more than a week removed from SodaStream's bombshell, we can begin to walk through the ruins to assess the damage. Analysts who thought SodaStream would be ringing up a profit of $0.41 a share for the quarter are now hovering around $0.10 a share. SodaStream didn't publicly peek at 2014, but Wall Street gets paid to do that, and what a month ago was a profit target of $3.28 a share has been whittled down to $2.46 a share. 


This isn't necessarily the end of the downward revisions. There could be a few unfashionably late analysts who have yet to chime in, and naturally, things can always get worse when SodaStream reports next month if its early read on 2014 isn't comforting. However, we can begin to assess the damage and provide a temporary approximation of what the pros see the year ahead has in store for the company that popularized the making of carbonated beverages at home. 

On the surface, things appear comforting. Analysts see revenue and earnings per share climbing 21% and 17%, respectively, in 2014. SodaStream is fetching a reasonable 16 times this new year's projected profitability. That's a bargain, and not just because it's a discount to its slower growth rate. Coca-Cola and PepsiCo both trade at 18 times this year's income targets. There's naturally a consistent predictability to Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, but keep in mind that these are companies only expected to grow their sales by 3% to 4% this year. 

The arguments that carbonated beverages are on the decline, or that SodaStream is a fad, don't carry a lot of weight at the moment. Sodastream, Coca-Cola, and PepsiCo are all expected to grow their sales this year, and all three are looking to grow their bottom lines even faster. Knocks about SodaStream's beverage maker being a fad go against the actual sales growth that the Israeli-based company has been producing. Growing sales 26% this past quarter doesn't suggest that sales have peaked, and neither does the year ahead of projected growth in the high teens. 

SodaStream isn't perfect, of course. Margins took a cold shower in the fourth quarter, and SodaStream needs to improve its operations and its product mix to get its markups back on track. However, with the new Scarlett Johansson Super Bowl ad on the horizon next weekend, the bar-raising potential of SodaStream Caps flavor capsules, and the possibility that next month's report is more optimistic than the market is right now about SodaStream's prospects, it certainly seems like an opportunistic time to warm up to SodaStream.

Last week, and the last half of 2013, haven't been easy, but until sales go the wrong way, it seems as if the revolution for homemade carbonated drinks is still taking place.  

Source: SodaStream.

Warren owns Coke, but don't call him a dealer
Warren Buffett has made billions through his investing, and he wants you to be able to invest like him. Through the years, Buffett has offered up investing tips to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. Now you can tap into the best of Warren Buffett's wisdom in a new special report from The Motley Fool. Click here now for a free copy of this invaluable report.

The article Can Sodastream International Ltd Pop Back? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz owns shares of SodaStream. The Motley Fool recommends Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and SodaStream. The Motley Fool owns shares of Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and SodaStream. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Why Textron Inc. Stock Is Being Airlifted Higher

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Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of defense and industrial conglomerate Textron are ascending as much as 8.7% higher today, reaching new four-year highs.

So what: Revenue for the quarter rose 4% to $3.5 billion. Earnings per share from continued operations leaped 20% to $0.60, which brought earnings per share for the year to $1.75. During the course of 2013, Textron reduced 23% of its debt, which is currently down to $1.98 billion.


CEO and chairman Scott C. Donnelly pointed out that it was a good fourth quarter that generated solid cash across all of its businesses. He credited the success with the company making "significant new product introductions and investments for future growth" of its businesses. Textron plans to make more investments in 2014 that it expects will create long-term shareholder value.

Now what: Textron sees an even better 2014 ahead of it. The company guided for revenue to jump 9% to $13.2 billion along with a 14%-26% rise in earnings per share from continuing operations to between $2.00 and $2.20. The fourth quarter of 2013 marked the first of the last six to show gains, and the outlook suggests that it is the start of a new trend.

The guidance doesn't include any gains from the planned acquisition of Beech Holdings, which is expected to close sometime over the next few months. Textron had announced back in December that it intended to acquire the company for $1.4 billion.

Overall, the results and guidance were close to analyst expectations. The positive reaction from the market may just be a simple case of a bird in the hand equaling two in the bush. Textron has missed analyst estimates several times, so the crowd may be showing its pleasure by rewarding the company due to the simple fact that it did not disappoint and was able to deliver solid results and offer a positive outlook.

This may be your last chance for the Fool's 2014 pick
There's a huge difference between a good stock and a stock that can make you rich. The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for 2014, and it's one of those stocks that could make you rich. You can find out which stock it is in the special free report "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2014." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

 

The article Why Textron Inc. Stock Is Being Airlifted Higher originally appeared on Fool.com.

Nickey Friedman has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of Textron. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Mythbusting: Intel Isn't Really Paying Tablet Makers

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Word has it that Intel is paying for tablet sales. Yet if you understand the accounting term "contra revenue," you'll know that's not entirely true, Fool contributor Tim Beyers says in the following video.

If revenue is the amount of money collected from sales, "contra" revenue is money forfeited via returns, incentives, and discounts. Headlines nevertheless describe Intel's efforts to put its new "Bay Trail" chipset in some 40 million tablets this year as just short of bribery.

Value is where truth and myth meet. By offering incentives, and then documenting the discounts as "contra" revenue, Intel is paying for a foothold in a market that's proven difficult to crack. Unsurprising when you consider that Samsung decided to forgo Intel in its new Galaxy Pro tablets. Contra revenue allows Intel to keep its list prices for Bay Trail stable while pursuing market share. Think of it as the difference between a blowout sale at your favorite retailer and anti-competitive dumping.


How should Intel investors treat the change? For now, Tim says, it's probably best to focus on operating income since contra revenue will skew top-line results for at least a few quarters.

Do you agree? What do you think of Intel's tablet strategy? Please watch the video to get Tim's full take  and then leave a comment to let us know whether you would buy, sell, or short Intel stock at current prices.

Big opportunities that pay you
One of the dirty secrets that few finance professionals will openly admit is the fact that dividend stocks as a group handily outperform their non-dividend paying brethren. The reasons for this are too numerous to list here, but you can rest assured that it's true. However, knowing this is only half the battle. The other half is identifying which dividend stocks in particular are the best. With this in mind, our top analysts put together a free list of nine high-yielding stocks that should be in every income investor's portfolio. (Hint: Intel isn't among them.) To learn the identity of these stocks instantly and for free, all you have to do is click here now.

The article Mythbusting: Intel Isn't Really Paying Tablet Makers originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Tim Beyers is a member of the  Motley Fool Rule Breakers  stock-picking team and the Motley Fool Supernova Odyssey I mission. He didn't own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article at the time of publication. Check out Tim's web home and portfolio holdings or connect with him on Google+Tumblr, or Twitter, where he goes by @milehighfool. You can also get his insights delivered directly to your RSS reader. The Motley Fool recommends Intel. The Motley Fool owns shares of Intel. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Top Dividend Stocks: These Dow Giants Paid Out $23 Billion in 2013

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Dividend investors saw a record year in 2013. The 30 stocks that compose the Dow Jones Industrial Average paid out a record $124 billion in dividends to their shareholders over the year.

In the video below, Fool contributor Demitrios Kalogeropoulos takes a closer look at three of the biggest dividend giants from that group: Microsoft , Chevron , and Johnson & Johnson , which together distributed $23 billion to investors in 2013. He notes that all three companies have already boosted their payouts for 2014 and that their earnings levels leave a lot of room for dividend growth in the years ahead.

More dividend picks
If you're looking for some long-term investing ideas, you're invited to check out The Motley Fool's brand-new special report, "The 3 Dow Stocks Dividend Investors Need." It's absolutely free, so simply click here now and get your copy today.


The article Top Dividend Stocks: These Dow Giants Paid Out $23 Billion in 2013 originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Demitrios Kalogeropoulos has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Chevron and Johnson & Johnson. The Motley Fool owns shares of Johnson & Johnson and Microsoft. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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This Company Can Make Your Portfolio Healthier

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One of the most popular breakfast items in the U.S. is eggs. A large number of people in the U.S. prefer eggs as an important dietary supplement. This has led to an increase in the per capita consumption of eggs from 247.7 in 2011 to 248.7 in 2012. Additionally, it is expected to rise to 250.7 for 2013 . Therefore, producers and marketers of eggs have been enjoying this trend.

Cal-Maine Foods is the largest producer of shell eggs in the United States. It has been largely benefiting from the increase in egg demand, as reflected by its second-quarter results. Its recently-reported quarter was better than analysts' expectations, making investors optimistic about its future.

Reasons to smile
Driven by higher product prices and increased volumes, revenue surged 8% to $354.3 million over last year's quarter. Specialty eggs have been much in vogue since they cater to health-conscious consumers and are priced at a premium. As a result, the demand for specialty eggs has been one of the key drivers behind top line growth. Moreover, the price of specialty eggs has jumped 4.1% over last year.


One of the most important contributors of growth is the acquisition of egg producer Maxim Production last year, which has largely helped Cal-Maine in revenue growth. However, this is not the first time that the egg producer has tried to expand through the acquisition of other businesses. It has also acquired commercial egg assets of Pilgrim's Pride Corporation , which specializes in chicken production; this expanded Cal-Maine's footprint in Texas .

Pilgrim's Pride sold off its egg assets since it wanted to focus more on chicken products. Both the seller and the buyer benefited with the transaction. Pilgrim's stock price has increased 126.5% over the last year and has been performing well. In fact, the chicken provider's last quarter was a blockbuster one wherein its bottom line surged 265%. The company's cost-cutting measures paid off as it doubled its margin to 11% over last year .

Moving to the bottom line, the shell egg producer's earnings jumped a whopping 80% over last year to $1.08 per share. Earnings were mainly driven by higher sales as well as lower feed costs, which are expected to remain at the same level in the coming months. The increase in sales of specialty eggs also helped as they make up 23.7% of the total revenue.

Reasons to believe
Cal-Maine has been an excellent performer and is getting better with each passing quarter. Its strategy of expanding through acquisitions and focusing on specialty eggs has been quite fruitful, delivering reasons to believe in its growth prospects. The egg producer has also been able to reduce its debt in the last few years, reflecting the company's growth potential.

Its recent acquisitions should continue to expand its presence in the commercial eggs space, enhancing its capabilities as well as its total sales.

Even meat protein company Tyson Foods has followed a similar strategy and has benefited much from it. It acquired two new businesses in February and June 2013, the advantages of which were reflected in its fourth-quarter results that were reported last month.

Tyson Foods' acquisition of Don Julio Foods and Circle Foods, along with higher chicken prices, helped revenue jump by 7% to $8.89 billion and earnings surge by 27% over last year. The buyouts basically strengthened the meat company's prepared foods segment and caused it to grow 5%. Even Cal-Maine is expected to reap the fruits of the acquisitions.

Cal-Maine Foods also provides organic and healthy eggs which carry a premium and is in high demand. Specialty eggs have high growth potential as its contribution to the total sales has been increasing. Moreover, it will help in expanding the margins. Therefore, concentrating on specialty eggs should prove to be advantageous.

Final words
Cal-Maine Foods has been performing well and its prospects look bright. It is the largest producer of eggs and is the leading industry player. As a result, it directly enjoys the benefits of an increase in egg demand and a decrease in feed costs. Eggs are also an important part of breakfast, so players in this industry should continue to shine.

The article This Company Can Make Your Portfolio Healthier originally appeared on Fool.com.

Pratik Thacker has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Royal Dutch Shell plc's Recent Profit Warning Won't Be the Last

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Royal Dutch Shell just issued a big profit warning for the fourth quarter of 2013, bringing its expected full-year 2013 earnings to $16.8 billion. This is a significant fall from its 2012 full-year earnings of $27.2 billion. Thanks to upstream cost overruns and downstream overcapacity, 2013 probably will not be the last year Shell faces low earnings. 

Downstream challenges
Shell's refineries put a hole in its Q4 2013 earnings. Its Asia-Pacific and European refineries are facing margin pressures and for good reason. They don't have access to cheap U.S. crude. They are forced to buy expensive Brent crude and pay a premium relative to U.S. refiners. Also, U.S. refiners have access to cheap natural gas and natural gas liquids.

As of Dec. 31, 2012, Shell had equity interests of at least 13% in eight Asian refineries. As if feedstock issues weren't enough, the Asian refinery market is facing overcapacity and low margins for years to come. Thanks to expansions in India, China, and other nations, analysts project that Asia could have a refining surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day in 2018. 


HollyFrontier is the opposite of Shell. HollyFrontier operates five small refineries with a total capacity of 443,000 barrels per day of capacity. Thanks to its location in the American Midwest it has great access to cheap crudes, with a number of promising investments on the table. For $300 million HollyFrontier is expanding its Woods Cross facility to produce a relatively secure $125 million in additional annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

HollyFrontier does have its challenges. The closing Brent-West Texas Intermediate spread will put downward pressure on its net income. HollyFrontier's 2012 net income per barrel was more than $10, but it could head toward the $2.69 average it posted from 2001 to 2010 when WTI traded at a premium to Brent. 

Shell's upstream challenges
The huge Gorgon LNG project keeps seeing cost increases. Recently the big partner, Chevron , upped the project's cost by $2 billion to a total of $54 billion. This cost increase comes after Chevron previously added $15 billion to Gorgon's price tag. Cost overruns are hurting Big Oil across the board, as Shell and ExxonMobil each own 25% of Gorgon.

Not only is Gorgon facing big challenges, the Shell-ExxonMobil-Total-KazMunaiGas-Eni Kashagan project was recently shut down due to pipeline leaks. The field's current $50 billion cost is more than five times its original price, and recent delays have pushed back its commercial start date even further. High levels of hydrogen sulfide make production especially difficult and point to further setbacks in the years to come.

In addition to the aforementioned problem projects, Shell's expensive Arctic drilling has come up short.

Delays and cost overruns in these big projects mean more of Shell's cash must be diverted toward capital expenditures. At the same time there is less money flowing in from production. From 2012 to 2013 Shell's net capital investment is expected to increase from $29.8 billion to $44.3 billion. Lower upstream volumes are another negative factor for Shell, helping to push expected Q4 2013 upstream earnings down to $2.5 billion from $4.4 billion in Q4 2012.

Once more of Shell's big upstream projects come online, its volumes and earnings should head upward; but it may be a number of years or more until the major kinks are worked out.

Shell is not alone
Cost overruns and upstream production challenges are not unique to Shell. In the last four quarters, ExxonMobil saw its revenue fall from $126 billion to $109 billion and its EBITDA fall from $33 billion to $15 billion. Its presence in both the Gorgon and Kashagan projects has put stress on ExxonMobil's capex budget.

Just as Shell is having problems trying to maintain its upstream volumes, ExxonMobil is facing similar challenges. ExxonMobil was able to boost its Q3 2013 upstream volumes relative to Q3 2012 but only by 1.5% on an oil-equivalent basis. In Q3 2013 it produced a massive 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, and there is a good chance this could fall slightly in the coming years. There are only so many mega-projects available in the world.

Chevron is a different story
Chevron will have an easier time maintaining its upstream volumes than ExxonMobil. In Q3 2013 it produced 2.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, significantly less than ExxonMobil's 4 mmboepd. Chevron is active in the Vaca Muerta region in Argentina, off the coast of the Congo, and it is already producing in the Brazilian Papa-Terra field.

In the last four quarters Chevron's EBITDA did fall from $14 billion to $11 billion, but compared to ExxonMobil it fared much better. Overall Chevron's smaller size will help it to be more nimble and stay out of projects like Kashagan.

Final thoughts
Shell is a massive company stuck with many refineries and expensive greenfield projects. It has a challenging future ahead as it struggles to bring large upstream projects online and on budget. Investing in smaller companies like HollyFrontier or Chevron helps you make sure that your investment dollars are shoved into fewer $50 billion dollar quagmires.

Buffett's big bet on energy
Imagine a company that rents a very specific and valuable piece of machinery for $41,000... per hour (that's almost as much as the average American makes in a year!). And Warren Buffett is so confident in this company's can't-live-without-it business model, he just loaded up on 8.8 million shares. An exclusive, brand-new Motley Fool report reveals the company we're calling OPEC's Worst Nightmare. Just click HERE to uncover the name of this industry-leading stock... and join Buffett in his quest for a veritable LANDSLIDE of profits!

The article Royal Dutch Shell plc's Recent Profit Warning Won't Be the Last originally appeared on Fool.com.

Joshua Bondy has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Chevron. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Earnings Preview: Murphy Oil Corporation

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Next week Murphy Oil will update investors on its fourth quarter results. Don't pay too much attention to how metrics like EPS and revenue compare to Wall Street estimates, however, and instead look at how Murphy Oil plans on generating shareholder value over the long term. .

Shareholders got a brief update on how operations were going a few weeks ago. Fourth quarter production was revised upwards from 199,000 boe/d to 205,000 boe/d due to planned maintenance being pushed back into the first quarter of 2014. As a result, the company reduced its 2014 production guidance by 5,000 boe/d to 235,000 boe/d.

On the flip side, this still represents strong 15%-20% growth if guidance is met. So what should investors pay attention to this quarter?


Onshore
The Eagle Ford is another play investors should pay attention to, as output is expected to increase from under 40,000 boe/d in 2013 to over 70,000 boe/d in 2016. Future growth will come from 40-acre downspacing and deeper laterals.

Beneath the Eagle Ford bench lays the Buda Lime and Pearsall benches, which could yield additional output. By drilling down deeper and allowing for more wells to be completed per unit, Murphy Oil can access each part of the prolific Eagle Ford. Shareholders should look toward what management has to say about how downspacing is affecting production and what output could look like past 2016.

Offshore
Two wells in Brunei were completed at the end of the year, with results expected to be announced this quarter. Management guided for the potential to find 180 million gross barrels of recoverable oil equivalent through these two wells.

This year several exploratory wells are going to be completed around the globe -- in Indonesia, the Gulf of Mexico, Vietnam, and Cameroon. Results here could dictate where future investments go and if Murphy Oil can increase its reserve lifetime without acquisitions.

You don't want to get burned
Malaysia is home to the maintenance issue weighing on 2014 output, as a rig caught fire that was going to service the Siakap North-Petai field. Four oilfields were brought online in 2013 by assets owned by Murphy Oil, and investors need to see how the maintenance issue weighs on further development.

Block K development in 2014 and the construction of the first phase of Block H, due to be completed in 2017, will provide major cash flow growth over the next decade. Shareholders should look to see this quarter if that is how management wants to proceed, and how the maintenance issue will affect Malaysian operations. If the construction of wells is delayed then cost overruns and lost revenue could depress financial performance.

Foolish conclusion
Murphy Oil has built up quite the extensive portfolio of assets for a company with a market cap of just $12 billion. Offshore wells take much longer to bring online than wells in the Eagle Ford, but once they start producing stable cash flow they don't stop for decades. Malaysia and Cameroon are two key areas to watch for this quarter in terms of exploration, while technological improvements in the Eagle Ford also offer significant upside.

The best way to invest in energy?
Imagine a company that rents a very specific and valuable piece of machinery for $41,000... per hour (that's almost as much as the average American makes in a year!). And Warren Buffett is so confident in this company's can't-live-without-it business model, he just loaded up on 8.8 million shares. An exclusive, brand-new Motley Fool report reveals the company we're calling OPEC's Worst Nightmare. Just click HERE to uncover the name of this industry-leading stock... and join Buffett in his quest for a veritable LANDSLIDE of profits!

 

The article Earnings Preview: Murphy Oil Corporation originally appeared on Fool.com.

Callum Turcan has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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The Dow Chemical Company Prepares to Reveal Its Beach Body

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Like middle-aged spread that accumulates over time, companies also become slower and fatter over the years, weighed down by acquisitions and extensions that lead to a flabby performance. At some point, it becomes apparent the excess weight has to go. Dieters shed the pounds and companies calve off business units, either putting them up for sale or spinning them off into stand-alone operations.

Petrochemical plant. Source: Dow Chemical.


Dow Chemical is in the midst of a starvation diet, having agreed last year to sell off its polypropylene business to W.R. Grace for $500 million and announcing in December a $5 billion spinoff of its chlor-alkali business.

Yet following the news that activist hedge fund operator Third Point Capital had taken a sizable $1.3 billion stake in the specialty chemicals giant, it's likely we're going to see Dow shed even more pounds, er, businesses, as Daniel Loeb agitates for the complete separation of its entire petrochemical unit, one he charges has held back the stock's advance.

Despite outperforming the S&P 500 Chemicals Index in 2013, Loeb maintains it's under-performed the index over the past decade and an investor can buy Dow shares today for the same price they could have back in 1999. 

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Dow's petrochemicals business has not benefited from the wild expansion of the shale oil and gas boom so by divesting that division it can better focus on maximizing its profits by realigning itself away from downstream operations. In turn, the remaining business can become a true specialty chemicals company.

Rival DuPont was also pressured by activist investor Nelson Peltz into concentrating its business lines. It sold its performance coating unit in 2012 for $4.9 billion and last year announced the spinoff of its performance chemicals unit. 

The specialty chemicals industry has been ripe for a shake up and activist investors have largely been the straws stirring the drinks. Both Air Products & Chemicals and Ashland responded to arm twisting by activist investors that targeted their companies, with the former adding three new directors at the prodding of Pershing Capital while Jana Partners cajoled the latter into ending staggered three-year terms for directors. More broadly, investors have also been having a large say in the future of restaurant operators Darden Restaurants and Bob Evans Farms, as well as clothing retailers Abercrombie & Fitch, Men's Wearhouse, and Jos. A. Bank.

Although separating the commodity and specialty chemicals businesses as Loeb proposes may increase costs because they share among other things an integrated supply chain, by focusing on more attractive growth businesses like agriculture, food, electronics, and pharmaceuticals Dow will gain a "valuation uplift from increased business focus and disclosure."

Dow's not necessarily opposed to the plan, as it had already said it hoped to realize some $3 billion to $4 billion of divestments by the end of 2015. Coupled with cost-cutting measures that analysts peg at $750 million this year (up from $500 million in 2013), Dow Chemical could become a svelte beauty that will turn the heads of investors, activist or not.

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The article The Dow Chemical Company Prepares to Reveal Its Beach Body originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Rich Duprey owns shares of Abercrombie & Fitch Co. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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This Food Producer Looks Set for Growth

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Turkey is the fourth most popular protein choice for American consumers after chicken, beef, and pork. However, on Thanksgiving Day, chicken, beef, and pork step aside making room for turkeys. In the U.S., 51 million turkeys were consumed last year on Thanksgiving according to Statistic Brain. In addition, 22 million turkeys are consumed on Christmas, and 19 million on Easter.

The USDA is projecting turkey meat production in 2014 to reach 6 billion pounds . This means that it is time to take a look at how Hormel Foods , the second-largest turkey producer in the U.S., has performed. Hormel competes directly with the largest turkey producer, Seaboard , and chicken, beef, pork and prepared foods company Tyson Foods . Will it be able to outperform them?

Strong performance
Hormel is known for its pork and turkey products, and has popular brands like Jennie-O turkey, Hormel, and the Spam family of products. It has also beefed up its portfolio by acquiring the iconic brand Skippy early last year . A robust performance from Skippy peanut butter and Hormel products in the international market resulted in stellar fourth-quarter results recently.


Hormel reported earnings of $0.58 per share, registering a jump of 18.4% over the year-ago quarter on estimate-beating fourth-quarter revenue of $2.3 billion. The company generated segment profits and revenue growth in four out of five of its segments.

Aggressive moves
Hormel is focused on allocating advertising resources to brand building in 2014, although there are no specific figures available as yet. The company will launch its first national advertising campaign to support the Skippy brand in the latter half of the year. This is going to be a growth driver going forward as Americans individually consume three pounds of peanut butter each year, and the current peanut butter market leader is J.M. Smucker's Jif.

While Hormel and J.M. Smucker battle it out for supremacy in the peanut butter market space, Hormel also has plans for allocating advertising dollars on its Jennie-O Turkey Store "Make The Switch" campaign . With grain and turkey commodity costs expected to be more favorable heading into 2014, the initiative will lead to top and bottom line growth.

With the emphasis on the "Make The Switch" campaign, Hormel is aiming at Seaboard's Butterball LLC in its battle for supremacy in the turkey products market space that Butterball currently dominates. Seaboard is a global conglomerate with interests in food, energy, and transportation. Seaboard also has its hand in the pork processing verticals through its subsidiary Seaboard Foods, which is one of the largest vertically integrated pork producers and processors in the United States. Pork remains a big business in the U.S., and around 70% of Hormel's revenue revolves around the pork business with another 20% coming from turkey .

Tyson's loss Hormel's gain?
Tyson Foods is another force to reckon with in the "Protein Power" market space. During the fourth quarter, it reported revenue growth in the chicken, beef, pork, and prepared foods segment, leading to a consolidated sales increase of 7% to $8.9 billion . Driven by revenue growth, it reported adjusted earnings of $0.70 per share and this was better than what analysts had expected.

Tyson, traditionally a meat processing company, has been more involved in the prepared food business as it offers value addition and the possibility of higher margins. Because of intense competition at grocery stores, it will be challenging for Tyson Foods, which is relatively new to the packaged food business, to compete for customer dollars with established suppliers like Hormel.

For fiscal 2014, Tyson projects sales to be around $36 billion on the back of strategies to fuel growth in domestic value-added chicken sales, prepared food sales, and international chicken production. Tyson might find the going difficult, however, as it recently ran into controversy and had to recall 34,000 pounds of its chicken products. This happened after reports emerged that it might be contaminated with salmonella.

These chicken products are mainly sold for institutional purposes, but Tyson's image might take a hit and hurt its financial performance.

Bottom line
Hormel is aggressively planning to build its brand going forward, and this is why it will be spending on marketing this year. The company has also rolled out a campaign to win over customers from peers such as Seaboard. Meanwhile, trouble at Tyson could help Hormel gain more share in the pork segment. All in all, Hormel seems to be in a good position going forward and investors should definitely take a look at it.

The article This Food Producer Looks Set for Growth originally appeared on Fool.com.

Meetu Anand has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Thursday: 2 Big Losers in Health Care

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On Thursday's edition of Market Checkup, The Motley Fool's health-care focused show for investors, Fool health-care analyst David Williamson sheds some light on what's driving the biggest movers in the health-care space today.

In this segment, David takes a look at two of the day's biggest losers in the health-care space. Medical equipment maker Hill-Rom fell by more than 15% today, after reporting an abysmal quarter. Net income fell by an astounding 45%, with the company lowering 2014 guidance and cutting 350 jobs within the company. Meanwhile, Herbalife is being called into question, yet again, for potentially being a pyramid scheme. This time, U.S. Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts is the one calling for an investigation, both from the SEC and the Federal Trade Commission. David takes a look at the inside story on these two stocks in the video below.

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The article Thursday: 2 Big Losers in Health Care originally appeared on Fool.com.

David Williamson has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has the following options: long January 2015 $50 calls on Herbalife Ltd.. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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