A sad day for Irrational Games might end well for Take-Two Interactive , Fool contributor Tim Beyers says in the following video.

First, the bad news. After 17 years, Irrational Games, the Take-Two studio subsidiary responsible for the megahit Bioshock Infinite, is shutting down. Talented people will be laid off, which stinks. Yet Tim says there's hope to be had in what Irrational co-founder Ken Levine has planned.

Writing in a blog post, Levine said he plans to start anew inside Take-Two with a skeleton team of just 15. Together, they'll be working on what he describes as "narrative-driven games for the core gamer that are highly replayable." How that will manifest isn't entirely clear at this point, though Tim says it seems like a massive undertaking.

Importantly for investors, Levine said he was "prepared" to jettison from the company he founded and create a new start-up. Take-Two instead convinced him to develop the project as an employee, as if he were an entrepreneur in residence at a venture capital firm. Tim says that's a hugely bullish sign, reflecting Take-Two's willingness to bet on proven innovators.

In the meantime, Levine said that unwinding Irrational will involve attempts to place those laid off with other Take-Two or external studios and provide financial support as developers prepare their portfolios and seek new gigs elsewhere. A bummer, certainly, since layoffs are always a bad outcome. Yet there's reason to be optimistic amid the fallout from Levine's ambitions. In trying to create something radical, his efforts may prove beneficial not only to Take-Two investors, but also to an industry that needs as much innovation as it can get.

Now it's your turn to weigh in. Are you enthusiastic about what Levine has planned, or would you rather Take-Two stuck with Bioshock? Please watch the video to get Tim's full take on the news, then leave a comment to let us know where you stand, and whether you would buy, sell, or short Take-Two Interactive stock at current prices.

DirecTV is reporting a better-than-expected Q4. In its quarterly and fiscal 2013 results released today, the company said it took in $8.6 billion in revenues for the quarter, up from the $8.0 billion in the same period the previous year. Attributable net income was $810 million ($1.53 per diluted share), a drop from the $942 million ($1.55) of Q4 2012. On average, analysts had been expecting $8.5 billion in revenues and EPS of $1.30 for the quarter.

For the full year, DirecTV's top line was $31.8 billion, against the year-ago figure of $29.7 billion. Net profit slumped to $2.86 billion ($5.17 per diluted share), from 2012's $2.95 billion ($4.58).

The company also announced the start of a share repurchase program for up to $3.5 billion worth of its stock. It said the initiative "reflects our strong balance sheet and confidence in continued strong DIRECTV revenue, earnings and free cash flow growth, as well as our belief that our stock is far below our intrinsic value."

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over daily movements, we do like to keep an eye on market changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

The stock market bounced back from a lackluster performance yesterday, seizing on strong U.S. manufacturing numbers to justify its gains. Only last month, Wall Street found itself stricken with anxiety from China's surprisingly weak manufacturing output -- how quickly things can change in a matter of weeks! The S&P 500 Index added 11 points, or 0.6%, to end at 1,839. All it needs is another 0.6% gain to reach all-time highs.

Cliffs Natural Resources , on the other hand, isn't in much danger of eclipsing record levels. Shares shed 2.4%, the most in the entire S&P 500, as Morgan Stanley added insult to injury by not only reiterating an underweight rating on the stock, but lowering its price target from $12 to $10 a share. For perspective, Cliffs Natural Resources would have to fall more than 50% to reach those levels. Even though the coal and iron ore miner swung to a profit in its most recent quarter, pessimism is easy to come by, and the company is currently fighting back against an activist investor intent upon changing the structure of the entire company. 

Even though the materials sector gained more than any other in the stock market today, Cabot Oil & Gas managed to join Cliffs at the bottom of the S&P Thursday, losing 2%. It's hard to understand the psychology behind a move like this, which came before Cabot's scheduled quarterly earnings release after hours today. Betting on whether earnings will overachieve or underachieve in any given quarter is like betting on black or red in roulette: unadvisable. Your best bet is to keep your money in your pocket -- Cabot Oil & Gas added more than 2% in after hours trading on Thursday after exceeding earnings and revenue expectations. 

The ADT Corporation continued its recent downtrend on Thursday, losing 1.9% in trading. Shares of the security company are off about 22% in the last month alone, losses mainly driven by ADT's weak quarterly report at the end of January. The business was only able to increase revenues by 3.7%, and earnings actually fell from the same quarter a year prior. The good news is that ADT pays a decent, sustainable 2.6% annual dividend, something you might expect from a profitable, low-growth company. However, ADT's balance sheets could use some work, as its debt-to-equity ratio sits around 1.4, and its current liabilities exceed its current assets.

Shares of Crocs rose to their feet following the release of the company's Q4 and fiscal 2013 results. For the quarter, revenue was $229 million, an improvement from the $225 million in the same period the previous year. Net, however, swung to a loss of $17.7 million ($0.20 per diluted share), from Q4 2012's profit of $4.4 million ($0.05).

But the latest figures weren't as bad as expected -- on average, analysts had been projecting a shortfall of $0.22 per share on revenue of $221 million. For the entirety of 2013, revenues amounted to $1.2 billion, which bettered the $1.1 billion of the previous year. Net income dropped to $78.8 million ($0.82 per share) from 2012's $129.0 million ($1.42).

The firm attributed the improvement in top line to "a solid 7% increase in wholesale revenue, with particular strength in Europe, as well as our global retail expansion," according to CEO John McCarvel.

Crocs provided limited guidance for its current Q1, saying that it anticipates revenue of $305 million to $315 million for the quarter.

In the wake of the results announcement, the company's stock advanced by just more than 5%, or $0.76, to close the day at $15.81.

Tesla Motors  delighted bulls once again with a phenomenal Q4 earnings report, capping off its best year ever. While Tesla initially projected that it would deliver fewer than 6,000 Model S cars in Q4, it ultimately crushed that guidance with a record 6,892 deliveries during the quarter.

Tesla is on a rapid growth path and should see big increases in sales over the next several years as it adds new models to its lineup, starting with the Model X crossover. Nevertheless, Tesla stock is just too hot to handle now.

Tesla One-Year Stock Chart, data by YCharts.

A few months ago, I noted that Tesla stock was starting to look attractive again because it had a clear path to more than quadrupling annual sales to the 100,000 level by 2016. The company's recent earnings report confirmed that this goal is very achievable. However, the stock has risen nearly 75% since early November, making it too pricey compared to the scope of its opportunity.

Strong growth platform
In Tesla's Q4 earnings release, management projected that the company would deliver 35,000 cars in 2014, representing a 55% year-over-year increase. By the end of the year, Tesla expects to be building roughly 1,000 cars per week, which would potentially allow it to produce 50,000 Model S cars next year.

Model X development also remains on track, and Tesla expects to start producing prototypes on its assembly line later this year, before starting mass production in early 2015. Furthermore, CEO Elon Musk stated that Tesla is seeing strong customer interest for the Model X even though it is not actively selling that model yet. As a result, Musk thinks Model X demand will eventually exceed Model S demand.

Tesla is seeing very high demand for the upcoming Model X. Photo: Tesla Motors.

Since Tesla still seems to have a way to go just to meet demand for its Model S sedan, it's pretty easy to see how the company could be selling 100,000 or more luxury vehicles by 2016.

China could become a particularly lucrative market for Tesla in the next few years. The Chinese luxury auto market is already large and it is growing rapidly. While lots of global automakers have a head start there, most automakers sell luxury vehicles for a big premium in China.

Tesla is forgoing the customary luxury car mark-up in China. Photo: Tesla Motors.

By contrast, Tesla aims to sell the Model S and Model X closer to the prices it charges in other markets. This will make the relative cost of a Tesla compared to other luxury cars much lower in China than in other markets. Furthermore, with the Chinese government eager to cut pollution in big cities, Tesla cars may become eligible for subsidies.

The big long-term opportunity
Looking out a little further, Tesla hopes to develop a more affordable car with a base price of $30,000-$35,000 by 2017. The key to building a Tesla-quality car at that price point while still earning a good margin is reducing battery supply costs.

Next week, Tesla will roll out initial plans for a battery "Gigafactory" that will have more lithium ion capacity under one roof than exists in the whole world today. This concept could potentially provide a means of reducing Tesla's battery costs to a level that would provide a long-term moat.

However, the success of this plan ultimately depends on two big unknowns: how low Tesla can push battery costs and how much of a premium mass-market car buyers are willing to pay for a Tesla electric vehicle.

Valuation is the key
Thus, I feel confident about Tesla's ability to push Model S and Model X production to 100,000 vehicles per year by 2016, and I think the "affordable car" concept holds a lot of promise. Still, that's not enough to justify investing in Tesla with the stock trading for more than $200. Including the shares that will likely be issued over time due to outstanding stock options and warrants, Tesla's market cap is now roughly $30 billion.

If Tesla grows revenue to $10 billion by 2016 -- by selling 100,000 vehicles for an average of $100,000 -- and gross margin reaches 30%, it will produce gross profit of $3 billion. However, operating expenses are growing by leaps and bounds. Tesla's operating expenses totaled a little more than $500 million in 2013, but have already reached a run rate approaching $800 million per year in Q1 2014.

As Tesla continues to add more stores, service centers, and Supercharger stations to support its global growth plans, investors should expect operating expenses to continue skyrocketing. When all is said and done, Tesla's after-tax profit will probably be less than $1 billion even if it reaches these aggressive growth targets by 2016.

If Tesla shares generate a market rate of return over the next few years, the stock would still maintain a lofty valuation by the end of 2016 in that scenario: around 50 times earnings. Thus, to invest in Tesla today, you have to be confident that Tesla will be able to push high-end-vehicle sales well past 100,000 per year or that it will be extremely successful in the mass market.

Foolish bottom line
Either one (or both) of these bullish scenarios could materialize in the next decade. However, considering the amount of investment necessary for Tesla to become a global automaker and the fact that Tesla shares already valued at $30 billion, investors will need a decade of flawless execution to beat the market. At this point, there are better growth bets than Tesla in the market.

Microsoft's SkyDrive, renamed OneDrive, received more than a name change when it rolled out globally yesterday. The cloud storage service was bolstered with a number of new features, making the product more competitive among a plethora of competing alternatives. As one of the company's first major moves under CEO Satya Nadella, is the company's increased focus on software and services a sign of things to come? After all, Nadella previously held the position of executive vice president of Microsoft's Cloud and Enterprise group.

Image source: OneDrive official blog

"Our goal is to make it as easy as possible for you to get all of your favorite stuff in one place -- one place that is accessible via all of the devices you use every day, at home and at work," said Chris Jones, Microsoft corporate vice president of Windows services, in a blog post announcing the rollout. Sounds a bit like Dropbox, doesn't it? It might also sound a bit like Google Drive, Amazon Cloud Drive, and Box. The space is littered with competitors.

Despite clear competition, Microsoft's new features suggest the company plans to take consumer cloud storage seriously. New features include, automatic camera backup for Android, the ability to share and view videos just as easily as photos, 500 MB of incremental storage for every referral (on top of 7GB of free storage initially), and 3GB just for using the camera backup feature.

A good move?
Monetizing users that initially opt for the free features in cloud services and software isn't easy work. A number of cloud companies have faced troubles with this tricky business -- LogMeIn, SugarSync, and Droplr to name a few. Why, then, can Microsoft expect to get any profits out of OneDrive?

Perhaps OneDrive's close ties with Office, SharePoint, and other Microsoft products the company has ushered into the cloud means more opportunity to turn free into sales through interdependent products. But even if it can't, there is still an argument for OneDrive as a prerequisite for a company that clearly aims to capitalize on opportunities in the cloud. Whether OneDrive translates into sales directly, indirectly, or not at all, services like these improve the whole picture of Microsoft's cloud services and software. Over the long haul, convenient cloud storage is a good investment for Microsoft -- not because it may make money, but it's a necessary step in serving customers.

As one of Nadella's first moves as CEO, could the executive who once oversaw Microsoft's cloud services be giving investors an early look into Microsoft's plan? Is cloud software and services going to continue to take an increasingly larger role at Microsoft at the future?

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Millenial Media, plunged more than 14% Thursday after the company turned in disappointing forward guidance.

So what: Adjusted fourth-quarter revenue rose 44% year over year, to $109.5 million, which translated to adjusted net income of $0.08 per share. On a GAAP basis, Millenial Media turned in a net loss of $0.04 per share. By contrast, analysts were looking for a loss of $0.05 per share on sales of $95.62 million.

However, the company also expects total revenue in the current quarter to be in the range of $72 million to $76 million. Analysts, on average, were looking for significantly higher first quarter revenue of $83.25 million. Adjusted EBITDA is also expected to come in at a loss between $5 and $6 million.

Now what: Millennial Media's fourth-quarter results were decent, but there's no denying that our market is a forward-looking machine. With shares currently trading at a lofty 23 times this year's estimated earnings -- and keeping in mind those estimates are likely to fall as analysts have time to fully digest today's news -- I think investors would be wise to simply watch from the sidelines for now.

AT&T and IBM are partnering at just the right time, Fool contributor Tim Beyers says in the following video.

The two are cooperating to help cities and mid-size utilities glean data and insights from the Internet of Things. Principally, the idea is for AT&T to provide mobile technology and software while IBM contributes data analytics for helping assess the health and performance of city infrastructure.

Sound ambitious? Perhaps, but Tim says AT&T and IBM have no choice but to think bigger, thanks to huge changes in their core industries. Look at how T-Mobile has altered how we think of mobile pricing and contract commitments. Or consider how the do-it-yourself server movement has cut into IBM's hardware sales. Big Blue sold its low-end server division to Lenovo in response.

Teaming on smart cities won't offer any immediate relief, especially since IBM has already spent years pitching its "Smarter Planet" consulting services. But it's a start. Investors can't ask for much more than that, Tim says.

Now it's your turn to weigh in. How are you investing in the Internet of Things? Please watch the video to get his full take and then leave a comment to let us know whether you would buy, sell, or short AT&T or IBM stock at current prices.

Even though it's no secret that the TV industry has struggled because of fragmentation over the years, the top companies still account for the bulk of distribution fees and advertising revenue. This has been led by Disney in subscription fees and Comcast's NBC in advertising revenue.

The combination of advertising and subscription fee revenue in the TV industry amounts to just under $80 billion. Subscription fees come in at $40 billion, while TV advertising revenue amounts to $37 billion, according to Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Todd Juenger. 

Distribution fees
In the distribution fee segment of the market, Disney is the leader; it has accounted for 20% of all revenue, just beating out Time Warner , which has 18% market share. Since TV revenue growth is expected to be predominately tied in with distribution fees over the next several years, this is a significant market to lead in.

Included in Time Warner's properties are CNN, TNT, HBO, and TBS. Disney owns ABC Family, ABC broadcasting network, ESPN, and of course the Disney Channel, among others. Other companies among the leaders in distribution fees are 21st Century Fox , which was formerly part of the News Corp. empire. It is the parent of Fox Broadcasting, Fox News, and FX. Next is NBCUniversal, the owner of CNBC, NBC, and USA, followed by Viacom , which owns Nickelodeon, Comedy Central, and other channels.

Since distribution or retransmission fees are considered to be the major TV growth catalyst over the next few years, this is a key metric to watch when evaluating the future growth of any of the major TV companies. Investors need to consider the fact that the larger media companies have a variety of sectors they serve in, however, so TV content fees must be taken as only one of the factors in the overall growth outlook of any company.

Assuming that Disney and Time Warner continue to lead in this area, though, they have a strong position going forward.

Advertising revenue
On the advertising side of the equation, NBC is the leader there with 20% of market share, followed by Disney with 17%, Fox with 12%. Viacom and CBS have 11% each, while Time Warner comes in with about 10%.

With about $77 billion in overall TV revenue, you can see how strong Disney is when taking into account advertising and distribution fee revenue. That means Disney generates about $28.5 billion in revenue from its TV operations, while Time Warner generates about $16.6 billion. Together, these two companies account for over $45 billion of the $77 billion in revenue the overall TV industry produces.

That's not to say the fragmentation of the TV industry hasn't had a negative impact, as on the advertising side of things it's a loss of about 20% when you go outside the major players. That's about $7.4 billion in revenue that the big TV companies aren't getting, which is not an insignificant amount. It also shows that the impact of market fragmentation maybe isn't as deep as some may think.

Outlook
Looking ahead, it appears advertising will be under pressure because of the growing digital ad market, where marketers aren't willing to pay as much per ad as they do on TV. One exception is digital video ads, which advertising companies say they are willing to pay top dollar for.

For now, distribution fees are looked upon as the growth engine on the TV side of the business. That area will eventually come under pressure, however, because companies like Comcast and Time Warner Cable will have to pass some of those rising fees onto consumers. This will cause conflict, as consumers have become increasingly resistant to rising prices.

It doesn't look like it has come to the point of consumers abandoning the content distributors yet, but it is something that investors need to closely watch as the fees continue to rise.

"I do not know how to express the conflicting emotions that have surged like a storm through my heart all night long. You have the greatest soul, the noblest nature, the sweetest, most loving heart I have ever known, and my love and admiration for you have increased so much since we've known each other that it still amazes me. You are more wonderful and lovely in my eyes than you ever were before; and my pride and joy and gratitude that you should love me with such a perfect love are beyond all expression. Love Always,"

This kind of sweet, hopelessly romantic literary gesture slays hundreds of thousands of hearts, and lays financial waste to victims around the globe thanks to Internet schemes designed to take advantage of lonely hearts and trusting souls.

The sweetheart scam was born

In 2005, Barb Sluppick met an Englishman through one of her online message groups. He said he lived in Arizona but was working in Virginia. The picture he sent showed an attractive gentleman. Though she was at times leery because she'd never actually met him, the romance blossomed.

Then the Englishman needed a little help cashing checks. During their first phone call, Barb said, she got sick to her stomach when instead of the proper British accent she expected, the voice was of a Nigerian man. The man eventually acknowledged that he was from Lagos.

Theresa Smalley fell in love around that same time. In his picture, Richie was a bearded guy curled up on a couch with his cat. It started with a chat, then friendly emails, then it swelled into passion. He sent her chocolates, a teddy bear, and an "I love you" balloon for Valentine's Day. Smalley was smitten, and she couldn't wait for Richie to visit her in Ohio after he finished his job ... in Nigeria. 

Months down the road, Richie said he had problems cashing money orders and asked if Smalley could help. Over a few weeks, as he prepared to leave the country, Smalley cashed them for him -- until her bank notified her that there were alterations in the money orders. They had been purchased for $20, then "washed" and "doctored" to read $900. Smalley still held out hope until a friend pointed her to an Internet site devoted to Nigerian scams. Smalley was devastated. Her four-month whirlwind romance was only a ploy to earn her trust.

Sluppick and Smalley founded the Yahoo group "Romancescams" to share their stories and hopefully prevent others from suffering the pain, humiliation, and financial loss of of online romance fraud. As of May 2013, their organization has grown to more than 59,000 people who together reported losses totaling more than $25 million. And that's only a portion of all losses reported to law enforcement officials, which is likely only a fraction of the total crimes perpetrated but never reported.

Lonely hearts club

No website is immune from the claws of the online romance scammers. Through ChristianMingle.com, a Nigerian man swindled a 66-year-old divorcee out of $300,000. Under the guise of "David Holmes," an Irishman working on a Scottish oil rig, he built a relationship, eventually asking for help paying off his daughter's tuition. Then she helped him fund his oil rig business, pulling money from her retirement account and refinancing her home for the man she loved.

She was in the process of sending him another $200,000 when her family, with the help of Turkish banking officials and the Santa Clara County District Attorney's office, froze the transaction. The Skype and email accounts used by "David Holmes" were traced back to Nigeria and Turkish authorities were able to nab an associate of the scammer at the bank designated for the fund transfer.

Match.com, consistently ranking as one of the world's largest dating sites, employs a team of fraud agents to detect potential scams. But the company itself reports that "sophisticated criminals" slip through its checking process.

People on social sites -- not just the dating variety -- have fallen prey, too. Ryan (who asked his last name to be withheld) reported that he was hanging out in a chatroom devoted to fans of the Grateful Dead. "The thing that duped me was the whole music issue. She seemed to be into the music I was into." Five weeks later, he had sent $15,200 to the seductive scammer, only to have the bank call, freezing all $11,000 in his bank account -- most of it from a student loan earmarked for the next semester's tuition.

Donning the military uniform

Frequently, members of the military are unwitting tools in the deception, according to Romancescams.com. Maj. Gordon Hannett's grinning face, with three happy children in the photo, has been used to seduce lonely women online, stealing their hearts and thousands of dollars. A 46-year-old reserve military policeman at a base in Washington and an attorney in civilian life, Maj. Hannett stated in an interview with Army Times that he has heard from over 300 women complaining about online romance scams using his identity.

Maj. Hannett is certainly not alone. Special agents from the Army Criminal Investigation Command have warned repeatedly that photos of soldiers, from privates to the highest-ranking generals, are being used to seduce for love and solicit money from vulnerable online romance seekers. Many of these soldiers remain unaware.

Usually, the scammers use photos and identities of real soldiers, including name and rank. Other times, the soldier whose identity was stolen was killed in action and the criminals use the hero's identity to further their twisted scam. In other cases, perpetrators use photos of married soldiers from which heart-tugging stories of dead wives and single-fatherhood bait and hook the compassion of lonely women.

The global business of online romance scams

The art of weaving identities, stories, personalities, and characters often too good to be true is a careful product of a well-organized business, romancescams.com reports.

Scamming organizations often have hierarchical structures, where scammers work in groups and in shifts, and follow a proven procedure -- they have scripts to follow and they get advice from more experienced members of their group.

The successful ones typically ask a lot of questions about the victim's dream and weave this fairy tale into a reality he or she can provide, being attentive, sensitive, caring, empathetic, and patient to build a connection with the victim. Their well-concocted stories tug the heart strings of a victim, and they keep pulling those strings until they have the mark under an influential spell. Then the requests begin.

While some scammers profess undying love in record time, others patiently court their mark for months before asking for money. Sooner or later, the scammers will ask for money to be sent outside the U.S. The amount constantly grows and the requests never stop, each accompanied with legitimate-sounding reasons. Varied and imaginative requests for money are common, usually attached to financial emergencies -- an accident, travel expenses, medical needs for a child, and for those posing as military, pursuits outside deployment such as transportation costs, communication fees, and medical fees.

For some, the heartbreak doesn't end after the initial scam. Victims are put on a contact list of targets, romancescams says. Miriam Munro of Australia not only lost $60,000 to a romantic scam, she went through the unbearably painful realization of being duped a second time. She met "Sean King," who claimed to be another victim of a scammer and claimed that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, a Nigerian law enforcement agency, could help her investigate and recover her lost money. After paying thousands of dollars again for anti-money laundering and insurance certificates, she realized she was on the same fraudulent trail.

The global money trail

The FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center reported in 2013 that people 50 years and over are the most common victims, and the most lucrative for scammers. A quarter (1,152 out of 4,476) of the complaints against online romance scams came from this segment. The total amount reported lost to scam from this age group is almost 70% of the total loss ($38,836,234.14 out of $55,991,601.08 in 2012).

MoneyGram International , which seems to be the money transfer of choice for scammers, reported that in 2011 it refunded 4,870 transactions amounting to $13.7 million in foiled romance scams.

The Anti-Fraud Centre in Canada reported that in 2012, romance scams grossed more than $16 million in losses reported by Canadians. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission reported a loss of AU$25.3 million from 2,770 incidents of romance scams brought to their attention in 2013.

The National Crime Agency in Britain has warned that online romance scams have elevated to inviting victims to visit Africa to meet the person they have fallen in love with, only to be kidnapped.

Des Gregor, a 56-year-old Australian, was held hostage by a Mali gang for 12 days. He was supposed to meet his bride, a woman he met through the Internet. But from the airport, he was taken to a room where two men with a machete and a homemade pistol began beating him, stealing his cash and credit cards. Gregor was rescued when Australian and Mali officials, alerted by Gregor's family, lured the kidnappers to the Canadian Embassy for their ransom.

Authorities in several countries concede the issue is likely far even greater than they are aware. Many victims choose not to report their experiences due to embarrassment and the emotional and psychological impact. Even without knowing the full extent, this particularly painful form of cybercrime is being perpetrated in an international and multi-million, if not billion-dollar crime enterprise. While law enforcement agencies seek to protect unwitting and vulnerable victims after the fact, awareness is the most effective tool for fighting these criminals who do their evil deeds in the name of love.

In what was one of the most anticipated earnings' releases this season, electric-vehicle maker Tesla Motors  crushed quarterly earnings' estimates and provided better than expected 2014 guidance when it released its fourth-quarter and full-year-2013 results after the market close yesterday.

Shares of Tesla soared 11% at today's open, and ended the day up 8.4% at $209.97, an all-time closing high.

First, the highlights of the quarterly results (link opens a PDF):

• Adjusted earnings were $0.33 per share, considerably higher than the $0.21 analysts had expected.
• Adjusted revenue rose nearly 150% from the year-ago period to $761 million, topping the consensus estimate of $677 million.
• Adjusted gross margin was 25.2%, while gross margin on a GAAP-basis was 25.8%

Vehicle deliveries 
Tesla delivered 6,892 Model S vehicles in the quarter, 13% higher than the 6,000 it guided for at the end of the third quarter, and 22,477 vehicles for the full year. These number didn't come as a surprise, as Tesla pre-announced them last month.

The company didn't give a breakdown by region of its vehicles delivered. However, CEO Elon Musk did state during the conference call that deliveries in the U.S. remained fairly steady from the third to the fourth quarter, so most of the increased volume came from Europe. Investors shouldn't take this to mean that demand in the U.S. has significantly slowed. Tesla needed to starve the U.S. in order to feed Europe, given that Europeans who had ordered a Model S had been waiting for a while, as Musk previously has noted.

Gross margin: goal of 25% met 
This was surely one of the key numbers investors homed in on, as Musk has long stated that the company's goal was to achieve a gross margin of 25% (excluding credits for zero-emission-vehicle, or ZEV, sales) by the fourth quarter of 2013. A miss on this metric would have surely disappointed investors and likely resulted in the stock selling off.

Tesla has made steady progress in improving its gross margin, which increased from 14% in the second quarter to 21% in the third to 25.2% last quarter.

To provide some perspective, Ford's gross margin for the trailing-12-month period is 15.5%. BMW and Daimler, which make for better comparisons (at least while Tesla is still focused solely on the high-end market) sport gross margins of 19.9% and 21.5%, respectively.

So, Tesla is doing darn well on the margin front, especially considering that the auto manufacturing business is one which is notorious for its high fixed costs. Tesla's gross margin should further improve, at least slowly, as it benefits from economies of scale.

2014 guidance: clear skies on the horizon 
Tesla expects its gross margin to reach 28% by late 2014. This target is based upon the option uptake decelerating, as Musk noted on the call. So, if folks continue to demand the many bells and whistles they've been buying, Tesla could exceed this number. It's very likely, in my opinion, that Chinese buyers will go gangbusters with options, which should help offset the likely deceleration in option uptake among U.S. buyers.

The company expects to deliver more than 35,000 vehicles in 2014, which would represent a 55% increase over 2013, and is more than the 31,000-32,000 most analysts had been forecasting.

As to production, Tesla anticipates producing about 7,400 vehicles in the first quarter, which is about a 12% sequential increase from the 6,587 it manufactured last quarter. That said, there's a planned considerable gap between this quarter's production and planned deliveries (about 6,400) due to the fact that more vehicles will be in transit for longer periods of time, as they'll be heading to international buyers. Tesla expects its production rate will ramp up to about 1,000 vehicles per week by the end of 2014, up from its current rate of about 600.

The company stated that its battery cell supply will continue to constrain its production in the first half of the year, but will improve significantly in the second half of 2014.

China and Europe outlook: rosy 
The Model S is scheduled to begin shipping to China this spring. There are numerous reasons the Chinese are likely to snatch up the vehicle at a higher rate than even optimistic forecasters are predicting. That's a whole other article; suffice to say for now that Tesla's earnings release included the statement: "Already, the Beijing store is our largest and most active retail location in the world."

As for Europe, where Model S deliveries began last August, Tesla is systematically building out its Supercharger network. It started with Norway, given that Norwegians have the highest electric-vehicle ownership rate in the world, and is now focused on Germany, Europe's largest auto market, which it plans to have completely covered by the end of this year. Coverage for the rest of Western Europe is planned, as per the company's previous earnings release, as follows: "By the end of 2014, we expect that the entire population of the Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, Austria, Denmark and Luxembourg and about 90 percent of the population in England, Wales and Sweden will live within 320 km of a Supercharger station."

Model X launch: slight delay 
The sole hiccup in Tesla's report was news its Model X crossover vehicle is now slated to launch in the spring of 2015, rather than in late 2014.

This slight delay doesn't seem like an issue, in my opinion, given Tesla had previously announced that the Model X would have only "limited availability" in late 2014 anyway. Now, a delay of a full year or more might be another matter. The concern wouldn't simply be due to the delayed launch of the X itself, but the resultant push-back effect on the launch of the more affordable third-generation model, dubbed Model E.

The mass-market third-gen vehicle is due to launch in "approximately three years," per Tesla's earnings' release. This vehicle is widely expected to be priced in the $35,000-$40,000 range.

"Giga factory" plans: expect news next week 
Musk deflected most questions about the giga factory during the call, stating that Tesla will be announcing plans on this front next week.

So, we should soon be leaning more about Tesla's plans to construct a factory to produce the lithium-ion batteries it requires to greatly ramp up its production, as it will need to do for the mass-market vehicle. I'd hope for an approximate timeline, location, and partners involved to be included in that announcement.

While I'd not hold my breath about an Apple teaming on this front (as some are speculating), a big-name partner could send Tesla's stock soaring (yet again).

Foolish final thoughts
Tesla had blow-out quarterly earnings, and its rosy forecast bodes well for 2014.

That said, battery supply and costs are key to Tesla's successful production and sales of its mass-market vehicle, slated to launch in approximately three years. So, substantial news about the giga factory will be just as important as Tesla's 2014 guidance for long-term investors, especially given Tesla's sky-high valuation.

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of DealerTrack Technologies, jumped more than 15% Thursday after the company turned in solid fourth-quarter results and encouraging forward guidance.

So what: Quarterly revenue rose 23.9%, to $126.1 million, which translated to adjusted net income of $0.27 per diluted share. Analysts, on average, were looking for earnings of $0.27 per share on sales of $123.17 million.

In addition, DealerTrack expects 2014 revenue between $800 million and $816 million, or an increase of 66% to 69% over last year. That should translate to adjusted net income per share between $1.42 and $1.53. The midpoint of both ranges is significantly higher than analysts expectations for earnings of $1.41 per share on sales of $561.82 million.

Now what: After reminding investors of their pending acquisition of Dealer.com, DealterTrack CEO Mark O'Neil stated, "Our successes and recent acquisitions provide us with a firm foundation as we head into 2014 and give us confidence in our ability to deliver accelerated growth this year as we execute on our strategy."

As it stands, with shares currently trading around 37 times this year's expected earnings, I prefer to let the dust settle before diving in for the time being. But that doesn't necessarily mean that current shareholders should take all their chips off the table; over the long term, if DealerTrack can successfully translate its huge top-line growth to a just-as-impressive boost in earnings, I think the stock should be able to continue rewarding patient investors.

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of AVG Technologies NV popped more than 13% Thursday after the online security specialist reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results.

So what: Quarterly revenue increased 7% year over year to $101.9 million, including a 25% increase in subscription revenue, to $67.3 million. This, in turn, translated to adjusted net income of $0.52 per diluted share. Analysts were only looking for earnings of $0.41 per share on sales of $95.22 million.

In addition, AVG provided a "broad revenue outlook" for 2014 in the range of $365 to $405 million, with adjusted earnings per diluted share of $1.80 to $2.10. Analysts, on average, were modeling 2014 earnings of $1.92 per share on sales of $394.31 million.

Now what: Taking the midpoint of AVG's guidance -- and even despite AVG's modest top-line growth -- the stock looks pretty attractive trading around 10 times this year's expected earnings. Assuming AVG can continue controlling costs to maximize its bottom line, I think the stock has what it takes to reward investors over the long term.

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over daily movements, we do like to keep an eye on market changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

Stocks overcame a weak manufacturing report, poor earnings from Wal-Mart , and yesterday's concerns about the stimulus taper to finish in positive territory as the Dow Jones Industrial Average  finished up 93 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 closed up by the same amount. A report from the Philadelphia Fed showed manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic has actually contracted this month as the index fell to -6.3 points, down from 9.4, and below estimates at 7.4. Analysts seemed to attribute the slowdown to poor weather, though a report from Markit showed manufacturing nationwide expanding at its fastest pace in four years, rising from 53.7 to 56.7. Elsewhere, a report in China showed manufacturing contracted again, hitting a seven-month low. Finally, initial unemployment claims held steady last week at 336,000, even with expectations.

The world's biggest retailer finished the day down 1.8% after its outlook for the year disappointed the market. Like many other retailers, Wal-Mart cited poor holiday sales and bad weather for the underwhelming earnings report. as it posted a per-share profit of $1.60, down from $1.67 a year ago, but $0.01 ahead of estimates. Sales inched up 1.4%, to $128.8 billion, but that missed estimates at $130.2 billion. Meanwhile, same-store sales dropped 0.4%, though comps at its smaller-format Neighborhood Market stores increased 5%. For the current quarter, Wal-Mart expects a per-share profit of $1.10-$1.20, worse than estimates of $1.23. For the year, the retail giant sees EPS of $5.10-$5.45 against expectations of $5.54. CFO Charles Holley said economic factors would "continue to weigh on our outlook," and cited issues like food-stamp cuts, higher taxes, and health-care spending for the slow profit growth. Separately, the company said it would accelerate openings of its Neighborhood Market stores, and raised its quarterly dividend 2%, to $0.48, its 41st consecutive yearly increase.

After hours, Groupon  shares were tumbling, down 11% after the daily deals merchant provided its own weak outlook. The online clearinghouse posted EPS of $0.04 in the past quarter, better than expectations of $0.02, while revenue jumped 20.4%, to $768.4 million, much better than the consensus at $718.7 million. For the current quarter, Groupon expects sales of $710-$760 million, ahead of estimates, but the bottom line sent investors fleeing as it projected results of -$0.04-$0.02, while analysts had expected a per-share profit of $0.06. During its brief history as a publicly traded company, Groupon has proven to be skilled at growing its top line, but profits have consistently been elusive. Its Goods department drove the surprising increase in sales, proof of its changing business model, and the company seems to be making the right steps for long-term stability with acquisitions of companies like Ticket Monster. Still, this will remain a risky investment until the deal merchant sees consistent profit growth. 

Giant software developer Oracle is a relative newcomer to the server business, having burst into the scene in January 2010 after its acquisition of Sun Microsystems. The global server business is as competitive as they come, and dominated by such tech titans as IBM , Hewlett-Packard , Cisco , Dell, and other large hardware firms.

Oracle's revenue from its server division has been trending south ever since the company bought out Sun Microsystems. Just prior to its acquisition, Sun Microsystems reported revenue of $12 billion and $9 billion in fiscal years 2008 and 2009, respectively. This revenue included sales of servers and related hardware.

The business has continued to decline under Oracle, and the segment posted revenue of $7 billion, $6 billion, and $5 billion in server sales and services for fiscal years 2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively. Is this negative trend attributable to Oracle and its execution strategies, or lack thereof, or is it a reflection of a wider global trend, similar to the steady decline in PC sales for all large PC vendors?

Global server market
HP, IBM, and Dell, lead the global server market, with double-digit market shares. Cisco, like Oracle, also came into server business quite recently in 2009, and has a market share comparable to Oracle's.

x86 servers dominate the market with a 90% slice (based on unit sales), while high-performance Unix and Mainframe systems take up the rest. HP claimed the top spot in the first quarter of 2013 after overtaking IBM. Its ProLiant brand has been the top seller.

Smaller players such as Huawei and Cisco have been seeing strong growth in server shipments in recent times. Both companies have been focusing on blade server form factors that seems to resonate well with customers. Cisco posted a huge 43% growth in server shipments in the third quarter of 2013, and took fourth position from Oracle with revenue of $600 million versus Oracle's $500 million. Huawei also recorded a stupendous year-over-year growth of 200% in that quarter, after shipping 69,573 units.

Looking at the bigger picture, slowing server sales seems to be a global trend that cuts across the board, since worldwide shipments fell 3.1%. Oracle's 16% decline, however, is much larger than the market average of 3.7%. Customers have a strong preference for blade servers over rack servers or high-performance Unix-based servers. Blade servers are credited to HP, which introduced them into the market over a decade ago. Blade servers increase the density of computing resources, so it makes sense that Oracle is focusing more on these servers. Oracle's 16% decline is, however, far worse than the average market decline.

Should Oracle just sell?
Oracle's huge decline in server sales is actually by design, not by accident. The software developer's main goal when buying out Sun Microsystems was to acquire Sun's powerful software platforms such as Java and Solaris, and to acquire Sun's high-end customers.

To prove this point, Oracle moved out of the low-margin x86 server business soon after the Sun acquisition and shut down the OpenSolaris project to concentrate on rebranding Solaris as a fully featured Unix-based system. The company then turned its attention to rebuilding Sun Microsystem's RISC microprocessor platform to better compete with Unix platforms of market leaders like IBM's PC-based AIX systems and HP's UX systems.

Oracle has also moved into engineered SPARC servers, which command higher margins. Although the unit selling prices of these high-end servers are much higher than that of the commodity x86 servers, total shipment volumes have been declining due to global server weakness.

One viable option for Oracle would be to issue a "mea culpa" to its shareholders and admit that the server project has been a lead balloon. Last year, IBM considered the sale of its server business to China's Lenovo. This would not be the first time the two companies have done business, since Big Blue sold its PC division to the Chinese giant in 2005 for $1.75 billion.

Foolish takeaway
It is, however, quite unlikely that Oracle will let go of its sever business any time soon. Oracle seems more keen on upgrading old legacy Sun x86 and SPARC servers into higher-margin Oracle Engineered systems. Oracle Engineered systems grew by double-digits in the second quarter of fiscal 2014. Revenue from the company's high-end SPARC SuperCluster servers also managed to grow by triple-digits.

Oracle is banking on strong global growth of demand for data services to drive server sales in the future. According to a recent Internap report, the demand for co-location hosting services, led by robust cloud hosting demand, will drive growth in the sector from the current $25.7 billion to approximately $43 billion by 2018. So, don't hold your breath waiting for Oracle to sell its server division any time soon.

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Blackhawk Network Holdings, plunged 20% Thursday after the company posted solid fourth-quarter results, but followed with disappointing forward guidance. In addition, Blackhawk announced that Safeway has decided to distribute the remaining Blackhawk shares it owns.

So what: Adjusted quarterly revenue grew 21% year over year, to $540.7 million, which translated to an 11% increase in adjusted earnings per share, to $1.09. Analysts, on average, were looking for earnings of just $0.84 per share on sales of $539.15 million.

Blackhawk also told investors during the subsequent conference call that it expects 2014 adjusted net income per share in the range of $1.19 to $1.24. Analysts, on average, were expecting 2014 earnings of $1.39 per share.

Perhaps most disconcerting, however, was Blackhawk's announcement that Safeway has chosen to distribute the remaining 37.8 shares of Blackhawk it owns to Safeway shareholders. For reference, that represents around 72.2% of outstanding Blackhawk shares. The exact timing of the distribution is yet to be decided.

Now what: In anticipation of Safeway's move, Blackhawk is currently negotiating a credit agreement of up to $475 million. This includes a $175 million four-year term loan, and revolving credit facility of up to $200 million with up to an additional $100 million available during the crucial year-end holiday period.

This could signal trouble if it means Safeway -- which spun off Blackhawk in a $230 million IPO last April -- wants to move away from Blackhawk's payment products and toward its own remaining solutions.

Taking the midpoint of Blackhawk's guidance, shares still don't look particularly cheap to me trading around 18.4 times this year's expected earnings. As it stands, and especially given the added uncertainty surrounding the Safeway distribution, I think investors would be wise to steer clear until the dust settles.

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over daily movements, we do like to keep an eye on market changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

Some retailers are constantly changing their daily sales, or bringing out hot new merchandise. Similarly, retail stocks have constant price fluctuations. In this column, I like to point out a few notable daily moves made by big retail stocks and let you know whether or not you should be concerned about the stock move, or buy more.

Without further ado, let's jump into today's movers and shakers in the world of retail. Today we'll look at Crocs , Urban Outfitters , and SUPERVALU .

Shares of Crocs jumped 5.05% today after the company reported earnings this morning prior to the opening bell. Revenue came in at $229 million, better than the $225 posted during the same quarter last year, and higher than the amount analysts expected of $221 million. Earnings per share hit a negative $0.20, worse than the $0.05 posted last year, but better than the loss of $0.22 that Wall Street was expecting. The company attributed the better-than-expected results to a 7% increase in wholesale revenue and positive results from its global expansion efforts. 

Another clothing retailer, Urban Outfitters, didn't have quite as good of a day today as shares dropped 1.57% this afternoon. The move lower came with very little news and below-average trading volume. Furthermore, the stock was upgraded just last week by an analyst at Brean Capital. The previous rating of hold was changed to buy while the price target was moved to $43. The analyst feels that the company's price is very favorable considering the fundamentals. But, while this all may be true, this group of teen apparel retailers has been having a rough few months; it  appears that teen fashion trends are changing faster than most of the retailers can keep up with. While each player in the market should be looked at separately, sometimes the market doesn't always follow that rule, which means the Brean analyst just may be onto a good opportunity. 

Lastly, shares of the struggling supermarket SUPERVALU increased by 2.15% today. The jump higher comes at a time when deep value investors are likely the only ones taking on the risk involved with owning shares of this company. SUPERVALU is unprofitable, heavily indebted, and has very few prospects for growth in the near term. The company's only hope is if management can somehow begin to attract more clients, while keeping costs low and increasing margins -- a near impossible challenge. But for those risk takers, the stock is only trading at 0.1 times sales, which means that, if a miracle does occur, this would likely produce a big payday. 

Image source: Marvell.

On Thursday night's release of fourth-quarter results, shares of Marvell Technology Group lost the regular session's 2.3% gains. But don't cry for Marvell shareholders, as the stock had gained 71% over the last year, and 21% in the last three months alone, setting the stock up for a correction tonight.

The communications microchip designer reported non-GAAP earnings of $0.29 per share on $932 million in revenue. That's a 20% year-over-year sales boost, and 53% stronger earnings per share.

Marvell surpassed analyst targets on both the top and bottom lines. Wall Street firms were looking for earnings near $0.25 per share on roughly $900 million sales. Free cash flows fell 49%, to $82 million.

Looking ahead, Marvell's earnings guidance for the first quarter is largely in line with Wall Street's current $0.21 estimate, though the $870 to $910 million revenue range sits far above the Street's $850 million target.

"Fiscal year 2014 was the start of a turnaround for Marvell," said Marvell CEO Sehat Sutardja in a prepared statement. "We are investing in advanced technologies that will help drive increased business opportunities and continued revenue and profit growth in all of our target end markets."

According to a Feb. 6 article on Re/code, the "love affair with the tablet is over." The author, Andreessen Horowitz partner Zal Bilimoria, claims that tablet use has peaked. 

Does the data support such a claim? What does this mean for investors of Apple , Microsoft , Samsung , and Amazon.com ?

An epic run
When Apple introduced the iPad in 2010, it marked the beginning of a downward spiral in the PC industry. The product quickly became the No. 2 source of revenue for the company. 

What does the future hold? According to more credible data, sales of tablets will actually grow dramatically over the next few years, while shipments of notebook PCs are projected to decline and those of ultra-slim devices will double. See Figure 1 below for a visual.

Investors shouldn't worry. The tablet is here to stay for awhile. Apple, which regularly updates the iPad with new features every year to keep users coming back for more, should keep doing well for at least the foreseeable future, as the tablet space generally continues to expand. 

(*) In thousands -- Source: NPD DisplaySearch

However, despite that success, Apple does have a big issue. Growth in the high end of the smartphone market, which Apple dominates and profits from immensely, could slow as the trend swings toward lower-priced handsets to gain share. The company probably needs to find an alternative to its cash cow. Perhaps a smart watch or a platform for mobile retail payments will be forthcoming this year. What will become the next Apple device that can radically change an industry?

Scratching the surface
Microsoft started offering a tablet to compete with the iPad in 2012. The Surface was one of the first Windows-based hardware programs that the company did not outsource.

The product has had less-than-stellar results so far. Only 1.7 million devices were sold during fiscal 2013, and it is likely that the company lost money on the business overall. In contrast, Apple sold more than 3 million devices during the opening weekend of sales for the latest iPad versions last fall. Maybe Bilimoria was only referring to Microsoft when he stated that the tablet was dead in that Re/code article.

New Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella might have to take the company down a different path, away from tablets. Nadella has spent a good chunk of his time at the company working on cloud computing technologies, which is generally a growing industry. Microsoft might be better off if it played in the cloud and not with tablets.

By the book
Amazon actually released the first version of its tablet series, really an e-book reader, three years prior to the iPad. The device has morphed into a multimedia device over the years.

While it certainly has its niche user base, sales have lagged behind that of the iPad and other devices. As of the second quarter last year, the Kindle series had an estimated 2.3% share of the general tablet market, down from 4.4% a year earlier. Amazon does not break out sales and profit figures on its products. 

The company strategy with the Kindle is to use it as a gateway into its other businesses, especially its top-of-the-line e-commerce platform, which continues to do well. Since the Kindle is losing market share, the plan may not be paying off. Amazon might have to find another way to boost online ordering. Drones perhaps?

A note on Samsung
While Apple probably doesn't need to fear Microsoft or Amazon in the tablet space, it does need to watch Samsung. The maker of the Galaxy Note and Tab ranks No. 2 on most lists of tablet sales and has eaten into Apple's market share recently on the lower end. Samsung uses the same strategy it employs in the smartphone business. Still, Apple managed to sell 11 million more tablets than Samsung did in the last quarter. 

Although emerging markets favor the lower end, where more of the future growth in tablet shipments exists, Apple's margins are somewhat higher than those of Samsung, and there probably is still money to be made by both of the two titans. 

Foolish conclusion
Despite Bilimoria's pronouncement that the "tablet is dead," total shipments are forecast to increase dramatically over the next few years.

Tech giant Apple will likely continue to reap rewards from the iPad, which has grown sales every year since its release. Samsung is hanging right with Apple in the tablet space, mainly with its low-end offerings. 

Image source: HP.

Hewlett-Packard just reported first-quarter results. In after-hours trading, HP shares dove sharply as the report hit the news wires, then climbed to a 1.1% after-hours gain as management explained the figures in a call with analysts.

Non-GAAP earnings climbed 10% year over year to $0.90 per share, above the top end of management's guidance for the quarter. Analysts would have settled for $0.84 per share. HP sales fell 1%, to $28.2 billion, again beating Wall Street's $27.2 target.

Management's earnings guidance for the next quarter fell just below the reigning Street view, but the full-year outlook matched analyst expectations.

Four of HP's six reportable divisions saw revenues falling year over year. The personal systems PC group reported a 4% gain, led by 8% higher corporate systems sales, but held back by 3% lower consumer sales. The product mix here shifted away from desktops and into notebooks.

"HP is in a stronger position today than we've been in quite some time," said HP CEO Meg Whitman. "At a time when many of our competitors are confronting new challenges, two years of turnaround work is setting us up for an exciting future."