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Is This Drug Maker's Stock Too Cheap to Ignore?

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Generic drug stocks have done very well over the past year. Companies like Mylan and Actavis  have seen their shares rise roughly 60% and 120%, respectively. One sector laggard has been Teva Pharmaceutical Industries , however. Its stock has only seen a fraction of the gains achieved by competitors. Trading at a noticeable discount to its peers, are Teva's shares a compelling bargain?

Multiple problems sapping investor confidence
Teva Pharmaceutical investors haven't had much to cheer about lately. Turmoil in the executive suite has shaken confidence. The drug maker's Chief Executive Officer abruptly departed, apparently due to differences with the board of directors. Being in the position less than two years, his sudden exit and the recent appointment of an untested replacement has worried shareholders. An announced U.S. Department of Justice investigation into the company's marketing and promotional efforts for a couple of high profile products only increased anxieties.

One of the drugs under scrutiny is the blockbuster Copaxone. While the inquiry is certainly a concern, the compound's imminent patent expiration is even more troubling. Copaxone will could facing biosimilar competition in May and that means sales of this multiple sclerosis treatment will probably fall substantially. Being Teva's best seller (generating around 20% of all revenues), investors are understandably nervous about the upcoming expiration.


Intriguing opportunities for better times
Teva may be able to make up some of the decline with its budding oncology drug program. Its partnership with OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals on the drug Custirsen might pay off. A promising treatment for prostate and lung cancer, it's currently in a Phase III clinical trial. A couple of Teva's own drugs are intriguing as well. Lonquex, a novel biologic drug for patients getting chemotherapy for non-bone-marrow-related cancers, was recently introduced in Europe. Biologic drugs, or those derived from natural sources like humans or animals rather than purely chemical compounds, are at the forefront of current biomedical research.

The drug Granix is another exciting Teva product. The treatment, which reduces the risk of infection for patients receiving chemotherapy, was approved in the U.S. as a branded biologic. The same compound is considered a biosimilar in Europe, however. Biosimilars, which are basically generic versions of brand-name biologic drugs, offer enormous potential and drug makers are just beginning to explore the space. The development of generic biologics is costly and complex, though. Only those that have both the funds and experience will likely gain a lucrative place in this fledgling market.

Pharmaceutical giant Amgen is aiming to become a biosimilars leader, seeing it as a multibillion-dollar opportunity. Partnering with generic drug maker Actavis, both companies believe that success in generic biologics will be more likely when leading generic firms and major brand companies work together. If Teva can build on its biosimilar experience (besides Granix, it also offers a product called Ovaleap), its entering into a highly beneficial partnership with a major drug company is a strong possibility.

As good as the future could be, Teva investors appear focused on the company's current troubles. Trading at a modest 9.7 times analyst 2015 earnings expectations, which includes a full year of depressed Copaxone sales, the share's appear at a noticeable discount to peer drug companies.

Building a generic powerhouse
Actavis is one of Teva's peers. Created through a $6 billion merger between Swiss-based Actavis and U.S.-based Watson Pharmaceuticals in 2012, the firm became an industry leader. Increasing its scope, the acquisitive drug maker recently closed on a $5 billion takeover of Irish tax-based Warner Chilcott and recently announced the acquisition of Forest Laboratories.

Growth does not appear an issue for Actavis. Total revenues increased 67% year-over-year in the latest quarter, though much of the gain came from its 2012 merger. The Warner Chilcott deal looks to deliver another boost when current earnings per share are expected to climb 35% from 2013 levels, helped by merger-related cost savings. Actavis' longer-term outlook is also encouraging. It has five biosimilar products in development with partner Amgen.

It seems that the stock market is fully aware of the company's bright future. Valued at a hefty (though not outrageous) 14.8 times 2014 analyst estimates, investors might have to wait for a price pullback before Actavis becomes an appealing value-based consideration.

Multiple avenues for growth
Mylan, another Teva competitor, is taking a diversified approach to garner growth. An imminent launch of generic Lidoderm, a well-advertised no-pill option for shingles pain relief, and the springtime release of a generic version of Teva's Copaxone blockbuster should elevate sales in the company's core generic drugs business.

Looking to advance in the biosimilar space as well, Mylan recently introduced Hertaz in India. The drug, a generic version of Roche's Herceptin treatment for breast cancer, is an impressive debut in the potentially lucrative market. Further success is expected as the company has four other biosimilar products in development.

Mylan is also amenable to growth by acquisition. It recently purchased Agila, an India-based maker of generic injectable drugs, for about $1.75 billion. The deal will open markets and improve sales in some key growth regions. Trading at 13.4 times 2014 analyst earnings expectations, Mylan shares look reasonably priced though with upside potential if any one of their multiple growth paths should thrive.

Summary
Teva's shares have lagged over the past year. This is understandable, as the company faces some serous issues. Investors may have overlooked some promising opportunities and valued the drug maker too pessimistically, however. Teva's discounted share price, compared to rivals like Actavis or Mylan, may be of interest to bargain hunters. The company's stock could be primed to rise on any unexpected good news coming from the beleaguered drug maker.

Hunting for more high yield ideas? Here are nine rock solid dividend plays
One of the dirty secrets that few finance professionals will openly admit is the fact that dividend stocks as a group handily outperform their non-dividend paying brethren. The reasons for this are too numerous to list here, but you can rest assured that it's true. However, knowing this is only half the battle. The other half is identifying which dividend stocks in particular are the best. With this in mind, our top analysts put together a free list of nine high-yielding stocks that should be in every income investor's portfolio. To learn the identity of these stocks instantly and for free, all you have to do is click here now.

The article Is This Drug Maker's Stock Too Cheap to Ignore? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Bob Chandler has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Teva Pharmaceutical Industries. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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First Solar, Inc. Earnings: What to Expect Tuesday

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First Solar will release its quarterly report on Tuesday, and investors have had mixed views in how they assess the solar giant's future. Falling costs throughout the industry have led many more people to consider solar installations, but at least for now, First Solar has largely ceded the booming residential-solar market to SolarCity and SunPower , choosing instead to continue focusing on its competitive advantage in meeting utility-scale solar demand.

Success in the solar industry right now is all about growth, and First Solar has made the most of its particular area of specialty in serving big utility customers with massive projects to take maximum advantage of opportunities for solar electricity generation. Yet the company doesn't have that space all to itself, with SunPower and other players looking to get their fair share of such projects as well. The question investors have to answer is whether First Solar can keep its edge while finding enough projects to take full advantage of its production capacity. Let's take an early look at what's been happening with First Solar over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its report.


Source: First Solar.


Stats on First Solar

Analyst EPS Estimate

$0.99

Change From Year-Ago EPS

(51%)

Revenue Estimate

$965.38 million

Change From Year-Ago Revenue

(10.2%)

Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters

2

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

What's next for First Solar earnings?
Analysts have gotten a bit more optimistic about First Solar earnings in recent months, boosting their fourth-quarter estimates by a penny per share and their full-year 2014 projections by $0.04 per share. The stock has given up ground, though, falling 13% since mid-November.

First Solar's third-quarter earnings report impressed shareholders, with revenue jumping by more than half and net income more than doubling from year-ago levels. Moreover, First Solar increased its earnings guidance for the full year, citing both reductions in production costs and sales of major projects in California and Canada for the surprising results. The company reduced its sales expectations for the full 2013 year, but First Solar expects that to be a timing issue rather than a permanent loss of revenue.

Still, some fear that First Solar is missing out on the boom in residential solar installations and that doing so could cause problems down the road. Yet even though residential solar has soared in popularity, solar costs are now falling to a level at which some utility-scale installations are competitive with fossil-fuel-produced grid electricity, with First Solar having signed an agreement recently to sell electricity in Arizona below the grid price. The fact that SunPower is still trying to be a force in utility solar shows that it's still a potential growth opportunity, and with utilities having to fight back against residential solar, adopting lower-cost solar projects of their own is a natural place to center their efforts.

One fascinating area for growth for First Solar could come from the mining industry. With energy costs on the rise, miners across the world are looking at customized projects to provide power for mining operations. First Solar's presence in Australia gives it a big opportunity to serve miners there, while competitor SunEdison expects to complete a 100 megawatt project to serve Chile's CAP and other companies are looking at similar power agreements.

Not everything has gone well for First Solar, though. Last month, Europe chose not to impose tough renewable-energy targets on all of the European Commission's member nations, instead choosing an overall goal. The resulting drop in possible demand hit First Solar and its peers hard, but First Solar has diversified its exposure well beyond Europe and so shouldn't see as big a business impact as some of its more Euro-centric peers.

In the First Solar earnings report, watch to see how the company's integration of its TetraSun purchase last year is faring. With expectations for higher-efficiency cells, First Solar needs to demonstrate that it can expand its scope of business as a result of the deal. If it can, then First Solar could see a new wave of growth as a result.

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The article First Solar, Inc. Earnings: What to Expect Tuesday originally appeared on Fool.com.

Dan Caplinger has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of SolarCity. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Don't Get Too Excited, BlackBerry

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Upon hearing that Facebook  is acquiring WhatsApp, BlackBerry  shares rallied on the confirmation that there is significant value in message services. One of BlackBerry's key turnaround hopes is BBM. The WhatsApp deal values each user at approximately $42, which implies that BBM would be worth nearly $3.4 billion based on its 80 million users. However, that comparison is rather misleading, since BBM has significantly fewer users than WhatsApp and network effects are precisely what create value per user.

There is absolutely some validity that messaging platforms are worth more now than ever before, but each platform is entirely different. BBM doubled its registered user base after offering cross-platform support for Apple iOS and Google Android, but chances are that user growth will slow after that initial spike. Perhaps BlackBerry can sell its underlying BBM technology as a better way to recoup some value.

In this segment of Tech Teardown, Erin Kennedy discusses BlackBerry's misplaced jump with Evan Niu, CFA, our tech and telecom bureau chief.


The next big thing in tech
Let's face it, every investor wants to get in on revolutionary ideas before they hit it big. Like buying PC-maker Dell in the late 1980's, before the consumer computing boom. Or purchasing stock in e-commerce pioneer Amazon.com in late 1990's, when they were nothing more than an upstart online bookstore. The problem is, most investors don't understand the key to investing in hyper-growth markets. The real trick is to find a small-cap "pure-play", and then watch as it grows in EXPLOSIVE lock-step with it's industry. Our expert team of equity analysts has identified 1 stock that's poised to produce rocket-ship returns with the next $14.4 TRILLION industry. Click here to get the full story in this eye-opening report.

The article Don't Get Too Excited, BlackBerry originally appeared on Fool.com.

Erin Kennedy owns shares of Apple. Evan Niu, CFA owns shares of Apple. The Motley Fool recommends Apple, Facebook, and Google. The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple, Facebook, and Google. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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The Biggest Social Security Mistake People Make (And How You Can Avoid It)

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Social Security helps millions of Americans make ends meet in retirement. That makes it surprising to see so many people make a basic mistake that can cost them thousands in benefits over the long run.

In the following segment from their video guide to investment planning, Motley Fool director of investment planning Dan Caplinger talks with Fool markets/IP bureau chief Mike Klesta about this crucial mistake. Dan notes that he sees too many people take their Social Security benefits at the earliest possible moment, taking reduced payments at age 62 rather than waiting longer to reap higher monthly benefits. Dan points out that in many cases, these retirees have other potential income sources to tap, including company pensions and retirement investing accounts like IRAs and 401(k)s. By using them more extensively, people could wait and increase what they get from Social Security. Yet Dan points out that it's hard for many to see the future impact of their Social Security choices, and so it's uncertain whether most people will stop making this mistake.

Don't make a Social Security mistake
Fortunately, we have the answers you need to avoid this big Social Security mistake. In our brand-new free report, "Make Social Security Work Harder For You," our retirement experts give their insight on making the key decisions that will help ensure a more comfortable retirement for you and your family. Click here to get your copy today.


The article The Biggest Social Security Mistake People Make (And How You Can Avoid It) originally appeared on Fool.com.

Dan Caplinger and The Motley Fool have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Dow Dividend Aristocrat: Chevron

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Over the past few weeks I've been working my way through the nine dividend aristocrats on the Dow Jones Industrial Average , and today we'll look at Chevron . The company's consecutive dividend streak started back in 1988, and its $4.00 dividend gives the stock a current yield of 3.50%, the third highest on the index.

So how did we get here? Well, Chevron is the Dow's youngest dividend aristocrat. Before 1988, Chevron made a number of consecutive quarterly dividend payments of $0.15, but the payout has increased every year since then, up to its current quarterly dividend of $1.00. It's been a slow but steady climb over the past 26 years:

CVX Dividend Chart


CVX Dividend data by YCharts.

Chevron has a stable business, and economists think demand for its key product will continue to rise, so a future chart of Chevron's dividend increases and payments will look very similar to the one you see up above. So the next question for investors is how well the stock price has appreciated over the past few years.

Since late February 1988, the stock is up more than 896%, or 9.2% annualized without reinvestment of dividends. Adding in dividends improves the performance to 2,455%, or an annualized return of 13.3%. Over the past 26 years, the S&P 500 has returned 587%, annualized at 7.69%, without dividends reinvested, so even if you didn't reinvest your Chevron dividends, you still would have outperformed the S&P over that period.

But will Chevron still be a good buy going forward? Let's look at what investors should be watching.

Over the next 30 years, economists estimate that world energy consumption will increase by 56%, and fossil fuels are projected to supply almost 80% of the world's energy through 2040. Fossil fuels are Chevron's bread and butter, meaning demand for its product will keep rising. But there's a finite supply of oil and gas, and what's left is often hard to access. That has already started causing problems for Chevron and will probably continue to bring new challenges in the coming years.

Rising costs for exploration and drilling could also weigh on the company's margins and profitability in the future, because as costs go up, Chevron can't just start charging more for its oil, since oil is traded as a commodity -- meaning the company doesn't set the price; the market does.

Investors should also keep an eye on oversupplies of oil or gas on the market. When we began finding natural gas in abundance in the U.S., the price of the commodity fell through the floor. A number of smaller businesses have since pulled out of the industry because they couldn't make a profit. It's unlikely, but the same thing could happen to Chevron if the company doesn't stay vigilant.

Finally, while Chevron currently pays out just 35% of its profits in the form of a dividend, the industry requires heavy investing and a large amount of free cash. So for Chevron's industry, 35% is a safe place to be, and investors will be well served if the company can can continue to grow profits and free cash flow, so that Chevron can raise its dividend without increasing the payout ratio. On the other hand, even if Chevron falls on hard times, it could manage to raise both the dividend and payout ratio without causing substantial harm, as long as management reinvests back into the business through research and development projects.

Final thoughts
Chevron is a great company that's not going anywhere. There are some long-term concerns about the industry, and none of our analysis takes into account unforeseen events like a massive oil spill. As we saw with BP following the Deepwater Horizon disaster, those events can be devastating to a company and its dividend. These are things that investors in oil and gas companies always need to keep in mind. There are risks in these investments, but with big risk comes big potential reward. That's true for Chevron as much as for any of its peers.

Want to know more about dynamite dividend-paying stocks?
One of the dirty secrets that few finance professionals will openly admit is that dividend stocks as a group handily outperform their non-dividend-paying brethren. However, knowing this is only half the battle. The other half is identifying which dividend stocks in particular are the best. With this in mind, our top analysts put together a free list of nine high-yielding stocks that should be in every income investor's portfolio. To learn the identity of these stocks instantly and for free, all you have to do is click here now.

The article Dow Dividend Aristocrat: Chevron originally appeared on Fool.com.

Matt Thalman has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Chevron. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Samsung's Next Product Could Be a Bigger Threat to Google's Android Than Anything Apple Has Released

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The second version of Samsung's  Gear smartwatch, unveiled yesterday, will run Tizen, its own operating system, not Google's Android.

Wearables seem to be emerging as the next great tech trend, with companies such as Apple diligently working on smartwatches and similar sensors to extend the usefulness of their handsets. With Samsung pushing its own operating system at the expense of Google's Android, it's a sharp blow to the Android ecosystem, and should cause further fragmentation.

The growing importance of wearables
At least at the high end, the smartphone market appears to be near saturation. Both Samsung and Apple have disappointed in recent quarters, as sales of their high-end handsets have come in weaker than analysts anticipated. To be clear, the businesses are still growing, but the days of double-digit expansion look to be long gone.


To reignite growth in their businesses, both Samsung and Apple appear to be turning to wearables -- a growing market that's still in its early stages. Samsung struck first, rolling out the Galaxy Gear smartwatch last year.

For now, Apple's wearables remain unseen, but various media outlets have reported on Apple's forthcoming iWatch project for over a year. Patent filings have suggested that Apple's interest in wearables may extend to headphones as well.

The advantage of having a walled garden
Apple's wearables, whenever they arrive, will more than likely compliment its existing iOS operating system, serving to bolster the appeal of Apple's growing mobile platform. 9to5Mac reports that Apple's watch will run a modified version of its iOS operating system.

If Apple's watch is anything like Pebble or Samsung's first Galaxy Gear, iOS developers should be able to easily create apps taking advantage of Apple's wearable technology. 

Complicating matters
Google's Android ecosystem should be capable of something similar: Indeed, Samsung enticed some Android developers to code for its original, Android-powered Galaxy Gear. But with its focus shifting to Tizen, the growth of wearable technology could only serve to fragment Android further.

Samsung is, without a doubt, the most successful of Google's hardware partners. Last year, OpenSignal estimated that about half of all Android devices in existence were made by the South Korean tech giant, while surveys have indicated that consumers are actually more familiar with Samsung's Galaxy brand than they are with the Android name itself.

Samsung's original Galaxy Gear was widely panned, and failed to generate substantial sales. Still, that hasn't stopped Samsung from trying -- less than six months later, the company is back with two new models. Given its success in smartphones and its growing retail presence, it's not a stretch to assume that of all Google's hardware partners, Samsung has the best chance at succeeding in wearable technology.

But if Samsung's Tizen-powered watch succeeds, it would be a blow to Android developer community. Android developers, looking to take advantage of Samsung's new hardware, would have to familiarize themselves with Tizen, making the Android platform even more difficult to develop for than it already is. They'll have to work within the confines of Samsung's own app store rather than Google's, further complicating matters.

Google's other partners, including HTC, and Google itself are said to have their own watches in the works, ones that will likely run Android. That could make developers' lives even more difficult, as apps written for one watch wouldn't work for another. This wouldn't be a big deal if these watches were truly separate, standalone platforms -- but they're not. For now, the smartwatches that have been released, including Samsung's, serve to compliment -- not replace -- an existing handset.

The same is true for many of their apps: Both the Evernote app and the RunKeeper app for Samsung's original Galaxy Gear worked in conjugation with their handset counterparts, syncing with the Android app on the user's phone.

Boosting Apple's app advantage
Despite the overwhelming market share of Google's Android, developers continue to favor Apple's smaller platform. With a limited number of different iPhone models in existence, developing for iOS is easier and less expensive. In contrast, the wide variety of different Android-powered devices makes it harder to develop for -- an app that works fine on a Samsung-made phone may not work at all on another handset.

As the handset market matures and shifts to wearables, Apple's advantage should re-exert itself. Samsung's decision to use Tizen for its smartwatch has further complicated the Android platform.

The real winner of the smartphone war
Want to get in on the smartphone phenomenon? Truth be told, one company sits at the crossroads of smartphone technology as we know it. It's not your typical household name, either. In fact, you've probably never even heard of it! But it stands to reap massive profits no matter who ultimately wins the smartphone war. To find out what it is, click here to access the "One Stock You Must Buy Before the iPhone-Android War Escalates Any Further."

The article Samsung's Next Product Could Be a Bigger Threat to Google's Android Than Anything Apple Has Released originally appeared on Fool.com.

Sam Mattera has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Apple and Google. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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2 Common 3-D Printing Misconceptions

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On a high level, 3-D printing is relatively easy to understand: It's an additive manufacturing process that builds objects in a layer-by-layer fashion. However, the nuances of investing in the space may be confusing to some.

For instance, Germany-based voxeljet trades in the U.S. with American Depositary Shares, and each ADS represents one-fifth of an ordinary share. As a result, financial portals like Yahoo! Finance often misprice the company's market cap by a significant factor. Because many financial valuation ratios use market cap as an input, it's extremely important for investors to know how much voxeljet is actually worth before starting to assess its valuation.

To calculate voxeljet's real market cap, multiply the value of each ADS by five, and then multiply that result by the number of ordinary shares outstanding, which is currently 3.12 million. At a present price of about $35 per ADS, voxeljet's market cap is roughly $546 million.


Additionally, selective laser sintering, or SLS, and electron beam melting, or EBM, are two competing 3-D printing technologies that appear awfully similar, but are technically significantly different. SLS uses a laser to selectively heat and melt fine powders into objects, while EBM uses an electron beam to accomplish the same thing. As a result, SLS excels at creating more detailed parts than EBM, but the cost per part is significantly higher. SLS was invented by 3D Systems and EBM was invented by Arcam .

In the following video segment, 3-D printing analyst Steve Heller discusses with Blake Bos, head of Motley Fool's industrials sector, these two common 3-D printing misconceptions. (The relevant segment can be found between 17:01 and 20:42.)

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The article 2 Common 3-D Printing Misconceptions originally appeared on Fool.com.

Blake Bos has no position in any stocks mentioned. Steve Heller owns shares of 3D Systems. The Motley Fool recommends 3D Systems. The Motley Fool owns shares of 3D Systems. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Why Are Legos Complicated and TVs Camouflaged? Because Red Associates Decided

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Behind The Scenes At Legoland
Getty Images/Oli Scarff
By Drake Bennett

When the German philosopher Hans-Georg Gadamer died in 2002, at the age of 102, he was unaware of the impact he would posthumously have on mobile electronics, distilled beverages, and personal grooming, among other consumer-product categories. A giant in the field of phenomenology, Gadamer examined how human beings perceive and make sense of the world around them. He was celebrated for adapting hermeneutics -- interpretive methods originally developed by Biblical scholars -- to the study of human perception. He wrote a lot, but he did leave some questions unanswered, such as: How can a low-end electronics company create products that wealthy consumers crave? And: What do women want in athletic gear?

According to Christian Madsbjerg and Mikkel Rasmussen, of Red Associates, that was a lost opportunity. Gadamer's hermeneutics offer insight into commercial questions as well

"It's applying very theoretical constructs to very concrete situations," says Madsbjerg, a cultural theorist. "I think that's the ultimate skill that's here. I don't think that the people that designed theories of identity ever, ever thought about toothbrushing, but it's very, very helpful."

"I'm probably more practical," adds Rasmussen, an economist. "Christian is very much into Heidegger, and I understand why, because once you get down to what it is he's really trying to say, it is really inspirational. It gives you a completely new idea about 'what is it I do, and how do I study something?' "

Sports Gear and Vodka

Since opening in Copenhagen a decade ago, Red has signed up some of the biggest companies in the world, including Intel (INTC), Novo Nordisk (NVO), and Beiersdorf (makers of Nivea skin-care products). Samsung Electronics relied on Red's research in designing what would become the world's best-selling televisions. Red helped Adidas unshackle itself from its focus on competitive sports so it could capture much of the exploding fitness and sports-lifestyle market. With the firm's advice, Pernod Ricard figured out how to sell more vodka in a world where fewer people are drinking in bars.

"The great thing about Red is that they're supersmart," says Mike Milley, the director of Samsung's lifestyle research lab. "They are an unparalleled deliverer of that well-framed idea that's going to help tell the story of what we need to do."

Red's 70 consultants, hired mostly out of graduate programs in sociology, philosophy, political science, history, and anthropology, conduct a form of ethnography, embedding themselves in the lives of consumers the way Margaret Mead did among Samoans. They interview their subjects and the people around them, itemizing the contents of kitchens and dressers while photographing and videotaping, and accompany them as they cook, or commute or primp. Then they sift the resulting information for weeks, even months, looking for connections and telltale behaviors.

Several years ago, Lego turned to the firm. In an attempt to compete against the immediate gratification of PlayStations, the company was marketing easier Lego sets, action figure lines, and jewelry kits that weren't really about building at all. Yet Red's research showed that, while kids love video games, many also love things that reward time and patience and, importantly, allow them to show off their hard-earned skills. In an example that has become Lego lore, Red found an 11-year-old German boy whose most prized possession was a pair of skateboarding shoes worn down in such a way that it was obvious to his fellow skateboarders that he had mastered a specific trick.

Those were the kids Lego should be courting, Red argued, and they didn't want easy Lego sets, they wanted hard ones. The insight helped persuade the company to jettison much of its product line, part of a larger refocusing that has put it at the top of the toy industry.
More from Bloomberg BusinessWeek:

Little Data

In the age of big data, Red practices what one might call little data: Rather than using algorithms to analyze oceans of numbers, it uses small data sets and subjective information parsed by smart, highly educated fellow human beings. Now, having honed their method during hundreds of client projects, Madsbjerg and Rasmussen have written a book, "The Moment of Clarity," a slim volume about the power of the "human sciences."

"Companies, other consultants, they're often trying to figure out what's useful or convenient for people," says Rasmussen. "I'm not interested in what's useful or convenient. I'm interested in what's meaningful." The last decade has seen a profusion of firms that offer similar services -- qualitative research is one term for it; corporate anthropology or consumer-centric strategy are others -- and companies such as Procter & Gamble (PG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Intel today have in-house anthropologists and sociologists. The best-known of the innovation consultancies is Ideo, legendary for its work with Apple (AAPL).

Red's human scientists take questions about sales figures and product lines and reconfigure them into questions about "worlds," the context in which people unthinkingly live their everyday lives. This, they argue, is what Heidegger would have done. The idea is that examining the beliefs and unconscious biases that people have about modernity, or masculinity, or domesticity, or death will eventually yield profitable insights for food and beverage companies, or kitchen appliance makers, or financial advisers peddling annuities.

"One of the attributes that Christian and Mikkel bring -- especially Christian -- is an intense desire for social science to count in business. It's almost an ethical or moral imperative," says Tony Salvador, director of Intel's social research lab.

Contemplating the Future of Food

On a snowy Wednesday morning in early February, a team of Red ethnographers in New York is spread around a table, thinking about food. The five people around the table are all 30 or younger, and between them they are fluent in eight languages. A client, one of the world's best-known food and beverage companies (Red is not allowed to reveal its name), sees consumer attitudes about food changing and is apprehensive about what that means for a product line.

Four Red ethnographers have just returned from two weeks in the field, one pair in Latin America, the other in Europe. Each has studied seven households, augmented with interviews with store owners, journalists, food experts and activists. Earlier, the team's leader and a Red partner spent three weeks with the client company interviewing staffers.

The meeting is the second day of the six weeks that the team will spend analyzing its field data and shaping the findings into recommendations -- Red charges $250,000 to $300,000 a month for its services. A management consulting firm such as McKinsey or Bain typically charges more than twice that. The ethnographers take turns introducing the households they studied: a young accountant and her family, a civil engineer who used to be a chef, a hipster filmmaker.

"There's a lot of stuff you just said that's juicy," one of them, Morgan Ramsey-Elliot, says to another, Sandra Cariglio, stopping her as she describes the layout of a particular household larder. Photos of one subject's apartment trigger a discussion of why someone might splurge on high-end furniture while scrimping on food. It's taken as a given that the subjects' descriptions of their own behavior will only sometimes match up with what they actually do, and whenever the group unearths an example, they take note. "We need to pause on that because it is weird -- or interesting, to be more polite," says Charlie Hill, the partner in charge of the team.

"We're looking for tensions, gaps -- 'asymmetries' is a word Christian uses a lot," says Hill, "places where things don't align." Places, especially, where the unexamined assumptions of the client company and the unexamined habits of the consumer don't match up. "That's the easiest way I have of explaining to my teams where an insight comes from," he says.

Heidegger doesn't come up during the pattern-recognition sessions, and it may be that, at least in part, the philosophers and anthropologists Madsbjerg talks about serve more as a branding mechanism, signifying intellectual rigor the way Warren Buffett's modest Omaha home signifies prudence. In an increasingly crowded marketplace of corporate anthropology firms, Red's pitch is that it is the company that can do the smartest stuff with the information it gathers.

Teen Bikers Don't Watch the Olympics

Red's clients seem convinced. "They have this ability to take even existing market data and decode it in a different way," says James Carnes, the global creative director for sport performance at Adidas. "At the core of what they do well is that they ask the right dumb question, the one no one else has asked." Adidas, for example, for decades defined being a sporting-goods company as providing equipment to competitive athletes. The approach served it well as it expanded from a German shoemaker into a global company. By the early 2000s, however, it meant that "we would create products for archery, because archery is in the Olympics," says Carnes, "and then you have 100 million women on the planet dedicated to yoga whom we were ignoring."

"I remember at one point we were spending all this time working on Olympics sprint-bike equipment, and they came in and said they found something: The number of 16-year-olds who globally watched more than one hour of the Olympics was basically zero," he says. Teenagers were and are a hugely important demographic for the company. "This event that we consider to be the epicenter of sports glory was not being watched by the target," Carnes says. What Red helped Adidas do, in his telling, is realize the ways that what felt like rational decisions to its executives were stemming from a set of assumptions of which they weren't aware.

Hiding the TV

In the mid-2000s, Samsung wanted to figure out how to sell high-end televisions to design-conscious Europeans. At the time, Samsung TVs, like those made by Sony (SNE), Sharp, and Panasonic, were sold as high-performance machines. The packaging loudly showcased screen size, resolution, and other technical specs, and the TVs had what one Red respondent described as a "very Star Wars" aesthetic of bright indicator lights and functional black-and-gray plastic. They were expensive, and Samsung assumed people would want to show them off.

Talking to their Scandinavian subjects, Red's ethnologists found the idea of camouflage coming up again and again. People didn't want their TVs to dominate their living rooms, and they didn't want them to be visible when they were turned off, which was much of the time. One subject had jerry-rigged a system so he could hide his entertainment center in a cabinet and the remote control would work even when the doors were closed. Another had his television in a corner, like a framed poster he hadn't gotten around to hanging up.

Red also found that the final decision on a TV purchase was usually made by the woman of the house. "When women decide, they see it as furniture," Madsbjerg says. "What's important to them in the situation is that 'it should fit into my home, and it should fit as much as my couch and my books and whatever I have in my home.' " This idea, that TVs are furniture, not electronics, proved a breakthrough, guiding a series of design decisions at Samsung -- a move toward subtler lighting and more tactile finishes that would make televisions blend in rather than stick out. The company today enjoys a reputation for elegant design and is the world's largest TV maker. It also remains a voracious consumer of Red research.

"I am constantly amazed at the kind of insights these guys get," says Bill Hoover, the chairman of Red's board and a veteran of three decades at McKinsey, "and it's often not really clear where the insight came from. I've seen Red in meetings with hard-core board members who've dealt with the Big Three consulting firms their whole lives who are just blown away."

 

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What to Watch on Wall Street This Week: Smartphones, 3-D Printers

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US-IT-CONSUMER ELECTRONICS SHOW-CES
AFP/Getty Images/Robyn Beck
You can never know in advance all the news that will move the market in a given week, but some things you can see coming. From new smartphones hitting the market to a troubled department store chain reporting financial results for the holiday quarter, here are some of the things that will help shape the week that lies ahead on Wall Street.

Monday -- A New Galaxy Invades

Samsung has emerged as the world's largest smartphone manufacturer. Sorry, iPhone fans, but it's true. Samsung has made the most of the freely available Android operating system to build cutting edge phones and tablets, and these just happen to be the two product categories that have been eating into the growth of desktops and laptops.

Samsung is hosting its annual Samsung Unpacked event on Monday, coinciding with the 2014 Mobile World Congress powwow in Spain. It's widely expected that Samsung will introduce the Galaxy S5 smartphone and update its Galaxy Gear smartwatch.

It there aren't enough fireworks out of Samsung, it's a safe bet that smaller mobile device makers will try to make waves with new products that they will unveil.

Tuesday -- Taking Care of Business

Office Depot (ODP) completed its merger with OfficeMax in November, creating an office supply superstore giant with 66,000 associates worldwide ringing up $17 billion in annual sales through its 2,200 retail locations.

We'll get our first snapshot on the officially combined company's performance on Tuesday when Office Depot reports its quarterly results. Naturally it's too soon to see the synergies behind the deal start to bear fruit, but analysts see the most profitable quarter out of the company in more than a year with sales topping $4 billion.

Wednesday -- Penney for Your Thoughts

It's been a bad couple of years for J.C. Penney (JCP). After an unsuccessful stint by a seasoned industry veteran to update the chain in 2012, the department store chain has gone back to its basics in an attempt to woo back the shoppers that have sworn off the retailer.

Wall Street's bracing for another sharp loss at the retailer when it reports on Wednesday, and that's something that's rare during the seasonally potent fourth quarter. If you're not turning a profit when holiday shoppers are storming the mall, it's not going to be easy to stay in business.

J.C. Penney has shown signs of bottoming out, but it remains to be seen if it has the financial support to see it through a potential turnaround.

Thursday -- Monster Under Your Bed

Energy drinks is one of the few beverage categories that isn't dominated by the world's leading soft drink companies. Red Bull and Monster Worldwide (MNST) have grown into the two top dogs putting out cans of adrenaline-boosting refreshment.

Monster reports on Thursday. It took some heat recently on fears of the health ramifications of ingesting too many energy drinks. This has become particularly problematic for children and teens. Activists and even politicians have tried to crack down on energy drink consumption by young sippers, and it's against this backdrop that analysts see double-digit percentage improvement in revenue and earnings, but it should be noted that Monster has missed Wall Street's profit targets in each of the four previous quarters.

Friday -- 3-D Glasses May Be Rose Colored

3-D printing has been one of the tech world's most compelling innovations in recent years. Printers can now crank out actual objects. It's no longer merely science fiction.

3D Systems (DDD) is a leader in this booming niche, and it's naturally been a great stock to own since 2012. It closes out the trading week by posting fourth quarter results. The market's holding out for a 53 percent surge in revenue, as even office supply superstores are starting to stock its entry-level devices.

If you have $1,300 burning a hole in your pocket you can pick up 3D Systems' Cube printer at Office Depot. Is there anything that Office Depot doesn't carry these days?

Motley Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends 3D Systems and Monster Beverage. The Motley Fool owns shares of 3D Systems and Monster Beverage. Try any of our newsletter services free for 30 days. ​

 

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The Hidden Financial Risk of Buying a Home in a New Development

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Buying a house in a new subdivision can be exciting. You're often the first person to live in your home, and it likely will have many of the latest features and amenities. But there's a danger too -- one I know only too well.

In 2009, my wife and I bought a new home in a new neighborhood. Today, with the developer still building more houses in the subdivision, we're finding that we can't easily sell it -- at least, not without losing $20,000 or more in equity.

We've learned the hard way that it's incredibly tough to compete with the developer who built your house, especially when the firm is still building more models nearby.

Here are a few things that you should consider before you make such a purchase.

Homes Are Still Being Built

In my neighborhood, the same builder who sold to us is developing all 80 of the remaining available lots. So why would anyone purchase my home when he or she could buy a brand new one? What do I have to offer that the builder does not? Two new homes for sale have identical floor plans to mine.

This means I'll have to lower my price considerably to attract potential buyers. Beyond that, I'll likely have to pay closing costs, upgrade amenities, offer a home warranty, or agree to some combination of these things to entice a buyer to purchase a 5-year-old home instead of a new one.

I could try to lure buyers with upgrades like granite countertops or incredible landscaping, but there is also a danger in having the most expensive house in the neighborhood. It's often impossible to recoup your costs for those types of upgrades in today's real estate market. I'd have to take a loss on most of them. So, even if I sold the home for close the price I bought it for, I'd still be losing money.

Do You Even Have the Right to Sell?

You may be shocked to learn that, even though you own it, you might not have the legal right to sell your home in a new subdivision for several years. Many homebuilders are adding clauses to contracts that force you to wait -- similar to an employer's non-compete clause

"The first thing a seller needs to do is check any contract terms they had with the builder -- many have a clause prohibiting sale during a certain period except in hardship cases," says Katie Wethman, a licensed Realtor with the Wethman Group in McLean, Va.

Always consider when you could potentially need or want to sell the home you're buying -- preferably before you're in the lawyer's office closing on the purchase. It's almost like playing chess. You've got to think a few moves ahead and ensure that there aren't clauses in your purchase contract that will prevent you from selling when you want. For that matter, it's worth looking for other hidden issues as well. Don't just sign a boilerplate contract without understanding what it means to you.

Comparison Shopping: Not So Simple

A new neighborhood is in many ways a closed environment. It'll be hard to get accurate sales comparison data because there has been so little turnover yet.

Of course, you and your real estate broker can (and will) try to compare similar homes in other neighborhoods. But comparable home sales in your neighborhood are the best indicator of what you can expect your home to resell for. You may have to wait years before you start to see some resales in your new neighborhood and learn what similar houses to yours go for on the open market.

Can You Beat the Builder at His Own Game?

Everyone trying to sell a home must strive to display it in the best possible light, but that is doubly true when you are selling a home in a new subdivision. You'll have to showcase any upgrades you have made. You must have perfect landscaping. You'll need to accentuate any way that your home stands out from the builders' new homes on the market. And you should probably spend the money to stage your home.

"A seller in this situation needs to spend extra time making sure the house is in pristine condition. Even normal wear and tear on a house is going to make it seem 'dirty' compared to a new construction home," says Wethman.

Sellers of pre-existing homes may be able to make their homes feel warmer if they choose the right colors and have it appropriately staged. A builder may have to show a less-inviting model home, or even one not quite finished.

If a buyer could move into your home quickly, with a very short escrow period, highlight that. Many builders need time to get new homes ready for people to move in.

Beware of the Fire Sale as Homebuilders Finish

You will have an especially tough job of selling if you're trying to do so at the same time as your homebuilder starts slashing prices to finish the subdivision and move on to the next project.

"Upon starting a subdivision, [developers] have to place hundreds of thousands of dollars or more in escrow with the governing body. This ensures completion of everything from final grades of roads to planned trees and parks," says Jerry Grodesky, managing broker at Farm and Lake Houses Real Estate in southern Illinois. "It is no surprise when they discount the remaining lots or homes in a 'fire sale', which undermines the established pricing structure of the neighborhood," he says.

The builder receives a large financial windfall when the government returns escrow money -- yet another reason why a company may slash prices on the last few homes in a new neighborhood to finish. Cutting prices ultimately hurts existing home values and comparable sales figures.

Websites like Zillow and Trulia, by the way, can provide you with a wealth of knowledge on home pricing trends and comparable sales figures. But that works both ways. Buyers typically conduct a lot of research before purchasing, and bargain for the best possible price. It's still a buyers' market in America, and this often adds to the nightmare for sellers in a new subdivision.

My wife and I have decided to wait to sell our home, in the hopes that prices will increase over the next few years, and that the developer will finish the neighborhood. In the meantime, since we had to move away for new jobs, we've become accidental landlords. We're losing $300 month renting out our home, but that's better than losing a lot more by selling at the wrong time.

Have you ever tried to sell a home in a new subdivision? What have been some of your struggles? Was it worse than selling a home in a built up, established neighborhood? Hank Coleman is a financial planner and the publisher of the popular personal finance blog Money Q&A, where he answers readers' tough money questions. Follow him on Twitter @MoneyQandA.


More from Hank Coleman

 

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Netflix to Pay Comcast for Faster Speeds

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Comcast netflix deal
Elise Amendola/AP
By STEVE ROTHWELL

NEW YORK -- Netflix has reached a deal with Comcast to ensure that its TV shows and movies are streamed smoothly to households, the first deal the online video streaming service has reached with an Internet service provider.

The two companies said in a joint statement Sunday they're establishing a more direct connection to provide a better service to customers that will also allow for future growth in Netflix traffic. The companies say the arrangement is already giving customers a better experience.

Netflix (NFLX) had 33 million U.S. streaming subscribers at the start of the year and accounts for about one third of all traffic at peak times on the Internet, according to research firm Sandvine. As the video steaming company has grown, Internet service providers like Comcast (CMCSA) (CMCSK) have pushed the company for more structured deals to enable its content to be transmitted smoothly and reduce the strain on their networks.

While the companies didn't disclose the terms of the deal, Netflix investors will want to know how much this deal will affect the company's bottom line and whether the costs will be passed on customers.
Netflix has been resisting paying fees to Internet companies and this deal could open the door to similar agreements with other providers.

Netflix is already experimenting with different rate plans that charge slightly more for households that want to stream its shows and movies on four different screens simultaneously.

The deal comes after months of collaboration with Comcast though Netflix will receive no preferential network treatment under the multiyear deal, the statement said.

Comcast was ranked as the 14th fastest Internet service provider in January, according to a table on Netflix's website. By connecting directly to Comcast's network, Netflix should be able to boost the quality and speed of its video streaming as it adds more customers and prepares to start streaming its content in the ultra high definition format this spring.

Other large Internet companies such as Google already pay broadband providers a fee to enable more direct connections.

Comcast is the nation's number-one pay TV and Internet provider under its XFINITY brand. The company said earlier this month that it had agreed to acquire Time Warner Cable (TWC) for $42.5 billion in stock.

-AP business writer Michael Liedtke contributed to this report.

 

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Facebook CEO Riding High for Now After WhatsApp Deal

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Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder, Chairman and CEO of Facebook.
AlamyFacebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg
By Alexei Oreskovic
and Leila Abboud


SAN FRANCISCO and BARCELONA -- Facebook (FB) Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg will take a victory lap at the world's largest mobile technology conference in Barcelona on Monday, after beating out Google (GOOG) in a $19 billion acquisition of free messaging service WhatsApp. But he is facing a new arduous race on the horizon.

Just 18 months after appearing at risk of getting crushed by the swelling mobile wave, the No. 1 social network is riding high. It gets a huge chunk of ad revenue on world-wide users of smartphones and tablets, from virtually nothing several years ago.

Now, Zuckerberg's purchase of WhatsApp -- while raising eyebrows with the hefty price paid for a company that boasts 450 million users but has little revenue -- places Facebook at the heart of smartphone communications.

It's a twist that is sure to have some telecom bosses in Barcelona gritting their teeth. WhatsApp and its fellow messaging apps, including China's WeChat and Israel's Viber, have punched a hole in operators' sales by offering a free alternative to text messages, a $120 billion market for operators. Research group Ovum said telcos lost $32 billion in text revenue last year and will lose $54 billion by 2016.

Zuckerberg and WhatsApp co-founder Jan Koum are likely to cast themselves as partners not foes of the industry in their appearances at Mobile World Congress on Monday.

Zuckerberg's keynote at 17:00 GMT is expected to focus on Facebook's efforts to make wireless Internet access easier and more affordable in developing countries.

Surprise Deal

Facebook's purchase of WhatsApp is its latest move to transform a platform and company born on the PC into a full-fledged network for a mobile generation.
Zuckerberg's progress so far on mobile has positioned the company to take advantage of the fast-growing markets. And it has helped boost Facebook's stock roughly 150 percent since July.

But with a new crop of smartphone applications threatening to eat into Facebook's audience, worrying signs of waning interest amongst younger users -- which the WhatsApp acquisition may help address -- and a tech landscape evolving more rapidly than ever before, Facebook can't afford to fall behind again.

That is critical for Facebook as it courts the "next 5 billion" Internet users, many of whom live in places like India and Africa and who are likely to first experience the Internet on a mobile rather than a PC.

"If Facebook is not first in line when those people are firing up their devices, it stands a chance of never connecting with those folks, because there are so many alternatives," said Brian Blau, an analyst at research firm Gartner.

No Sure Thing

To some, Google wields the advantage for now.

Its Android mobile operating system comes pre-installed on roughly 80 percent of the smartphones sold in the world today. That helps ensure new users will see and use its various online services, including search, maps and its Google+ social network.

Once WhatsApp is in Facebook's pocket, there's no guarantee the messaging service -- which famously eschews games, shopping or other popular add-ons to focus on pure messaging -- can remain ahead in a notoriously fickle market.

Rival messaging apps such as Tencent Holding's WeChat and Naver's LINE are popular across Asia and have hundreds of millions of users. They have also expanded to allow users to book taxis, top up phone credit, and take part in flash sales, all on the app.

WhatsApp, which Zuckerberg has promised will remain independent, fits Facebook's recent approach of designing or buying "spinoff" apps for smartphones, such as Instagram or the Paper news app, which has earned positive reviews.

"You see Facebook trying to increase its surface area, with different apps for different things," said Josh Elman, a venture capital firm Greylock Partners. The idea is to give users multiple ways to interact with Facebook throughout the day.

To meet his ambitions, Zuckerberg could use the telecom industry's help. He will make his case to the handset makers and operators gathered in Barcelona that they should work together to make Internet access cheaper and more ubiquitous in the developing world.

Facebook has partnered with over 150 wireless providers over the past four years to offer free or discounted access to the social network, including a deal with Globe Telecom to provide three months of free access to customers in the Philippines.

Not everyone is on board.

Vodafone (VOD) chief executive Vittorio Colao said earlier this month that Facebook had approached him about waiving data charges when customers access the website from their mobiles. But Colao rejected the idea because he didn't see any benefit for his company, which is Europe's largest wireless carrier and also operates in India and across Africa.

 

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Don't Expect a Repeat Performance from Fannie Mae

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Fannie Mae posted incredible financial results in 2013 with comprehensive income climbing to over $84 billion; however, due to a host of one-time charges, investors shouldn't expect remotely similar result going forward.

In this segment of The Motley Fool's financials-focused show, Where the Money Is, banking analysts Matt Koppenheffer and David Hanson look at three tweets regarding Fannie Mae, Citigroup's pay packages, and the Fed.

Is there big opportunity in big banks after the crisis?
Many investors are terrified about investing in big banking stocks after the crash, but the sector has one notable stand-out. In a sea of mismanaged and dangerous peers, it rises above as "The Only Big Bank Built to Last." You can uncover the top pick that Warren Buffett loves in The Motley Fool's new report. It's free, so click here to access it now.


The article Don't Expect a Repeat Performance from Fannie Mae originally appeared on Fool.com.

David Hanson has no position in any stocks mentioned. Matt Koppenheffer owns shares of Bank of America and Citigroup. The Motley Fool recommends Bank of America. The Motley Fool owns shares of Bank of America and Citigroup. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Will You Buy This GE Spin-Off?

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General Electric is planning on spinning off its North American consumer lending segment of GE Capital in the form of an IPO. In this segment of The Motley Fool's financials-focused show, Where the Money Is, banking analysts Matt Koppenheffer and David Hanson take a question from their mailbag about GE's plan and whether the new company is appealing, as well as stack the segment against the already-public Discover .

Is the credit card business the next one to crumble after this disruption hits?
The plastic in your wallet is about to go the way of the typewriter, the VCR, and the 8-track tape player. When it does, a handful of investors could stand to get very rich. You can join them -- but you must act now. An eye-opening new presentation reveals the full story on why your credit card is about to be worthless -- and highlights one little-known company sitting at the epicenter of an earth-shaking movement that could hand early investors the kind of profits we haven't seen since the dot-com days. Click here to watch this stunning video.

The article Will You Buy This GE Spin-Off? originally appeared on Fool.com.

David Hanson has no position in any stocks mentioned. Matt Koppenheffer has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of General Electric Company. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Visa Can Still Move Higher in 2014

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Card companies Visa , MasterCard , Discover Financial Services and American Express handily beat the S&P 500 in fiscal 2013 with solid share gains. Visa was up 36%, MasterCard gained a massive 61%, Discover Financial Services climbed 37%, and American Express shot up 46%. In comparison, the S&P 500 was up 30%, its best year since 1997. Although dividend stocks routinely outperform their non-dividend paying brethren, growth stocks with modest dividends but potentially greater runways for growth -- such as Visa -- are good long-term investment tools.

Visa is not your classic dividend champion, yielding just 0.8%. What Visa lacks in hefty dividends it makes up for in other key arenas: it commands the best gross margin among the four card companies with a healthy 43%, and the highest net income of the four. Visa finished fiscal 2013 with a $5 billion net income, a huge 18% jump over last year's figure, while its full-year net income grew 23% to $7.59 per diluted share. Visa looks like a good growth stock, and its valuation relative to MasterCard's still looks quite cheap.

Despite its recent run-up, Visa still has some upside potential.


Income and dividend growing exponentially
Since its maiden year in the market, Visa's income and dividend have grown at a sweltering pace. Its income before taxes has more than doubled since 2009 to hit $7.2 billion in 2009. This sustained growth is part of the reason it was inducted into the Dow Jones in 2013.

 Visa's bottom-line grew at an even faster clip than its top-line, with its dividend more than tripling over the same timeline, to stand at $1.32 in fiscal 2013.


A New Strategy At Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Is Making All The Difference

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The health care IT space is still very competitive, with Epic and Cerner holding large shares in large hospitals, but new management has made a big difference for Allscripts . Strong bookings put the company on good footing for 2014, while growing interest in population health and a sizable replacement opportunity in electronic health records (EHR) offer more enduring potential.

Q4 strong, but bookings were the star
Allscripts' fourth quarter came in quite strong relative to sell-side expectations for non-GAAP numbers. Revenue fell 4% for the quarter, with growth in maintenance revenue offset by declines in the other line items, good for a modest (approximately 4%) beat with every line above expectations. Gross margin improved on both a sequential and annual basis, but operating income declined 19% from the year-ago level on higher SG&A spending (on a non-GAAP basis, SG&A is almost one-third of sales).

There was a wide range of sell-side expectations for non-GAAP operating profits, but Allscripts clearly beat expectations for its bookings. Bookings rose 52% (and 16% sequentially) in the fourth quarter, almost 14% better than the average estimate. With this strong influx of orders, Allscripts' backlog rose almost 22% at year-end.


Population health continues to draw interest
There are a lot of positive moving parts to Allscripts' bookings, as the company saw good interest in its SaaS offerings (44% of bookings) and good strength in core EHR products. One of the notable positives was also the interest in the company's population health product.

Population health is an emerging category that that uses electronic medical data to manage and improve outcomes for groups of patients through data aggregation, risk stratification, care coordination, and outreach. Allscripts' population health platform represented 40% of third quarter bookings, and that grew to 42% in this quarter.

As an emerging category, I believe population health is an invaluable growth opportunity for Allscripts. Large rivals like Epic and Cerner do not have entrenched relationships within this market, though Cerner is intending to fully ramp its Healthe Intent platform in the coming years. Allscripts is certainly going to have to deal with competition from Cerner, Epic, athenahealth , and others, but survey results suggest that Allscripts has a very good opportunity here.

Has Allscripts put its problems behind it?
Allscripts hasn't always been the best-run health care IT company in the business, but today's management team has taken a lot of steps to turn around the business. These moves appear to already be bearing fruit and could position the company for further share gains and profit growth.

Part of the problem for Allscripts is its legacy of growth through acquisition. That has left the company selling disparate systems and lacking an integrated platform. Consolidating platforms risks alienating customers, so it is at best a multi-year project. In the meantime, management has increased R&D spending and begun offering customers a clearer product roadmap. Allscripts management has also been focusing on improving the quality of the products it offers, and that has been reflected in improving survey scores and solid customer commitments to upgrades.

One of the remaining challenges is for Allscripts to gain share in the hospital/health care system market. MU-eligible provider attestations show that Allscripts enjoys better than 11% share in the ambulatory care market (against about 6% for General Electric, 3% for Cerner, and 2% for athenahealth), but the company's share in the market for hospital health care IT systems is closer to 4% (against around 15% for Cerner).

Cerner has talked about 50% of the EHR market being ripe for competitive replacement, so I will be very interested to see if Allscripts can drive share growth with its Sunrise enterprise platform. Keep in mind, though, that athenahealth has shown itself to be a very strong fast-mover - the company has moved into clinical management (from revenue cycle management) much faster than most of its rivals expected.

The bottom line
Allscripts shares have performed pretty well over the past year as investors have started buying into the turnaround theme. With the ambulatory care market only about 50% penetrated and a large chunk of the acute care market up for competitive take-away, there is definitely an opportunity for Allscripts to make hay with better products, service, and marketing.

Like many turnarounds, Allscripts doesn't look all that cheap right now. If the company can continue to grab share from established leaders like Cerner and stay ahead of them (and others like athenahealth) in growth opportunities like population health, there could yet be worthwhile rewards from these shares.

More powerhouse investing ideas
It's no secret that investors tend to be impatient with the market, but the best investment strategy is to buy shares in solid businesses and keep them for the long term. In the special free report "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich," The Motley Fool shares investment ideas and strategies that could help you build wealth for years to come. Click here to grab your free copy today.

The article A New Strategy At Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Is Making All The Difference originally appeared on Fool.com.

Stephen D. Simpson, CFA has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Why Does Your Credit Score Fluctuate?

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By Becky Frost

You are already ahead of many Americans if you check your credit score on a regular basis. But what happens when you see that your score has fluctuated? A number of factors affect your credit score. Once you have examined these more closely, you may find some areas for improvement when it comes to your financial habits. Here are five factors to consider.

Did You Max Out Any Credit Cards?

Things happen, like emergency purchases, holiday spending, and unforeseen medical bills. If you are in a position that prevents you from paying off the balance on your cards each month, consider paying as much as you can and stay current with your payments. This will help keep your payment history solid and your balance from hitting too close to the limit. It is generally recommended to keep credit card balances at or below 1/3 of their limits.

Have You Recently Applied for Any New Credit Cards?

Were you tempted to apply for a new auto loan, mortgage or new credit card? When you are in the market for a new house or car loan, your credit may show additional inquiries. One or two inquires may not have a considerable impact. On the other hand, too many credit inquiries may negatively impact your credit score since a hard inquiry can stay on your credit report for up to two years.

Is There Suspicious Information on Your Credit Report?

If so, verify the information on your credit report across all three credit reporting agencies. There's a possibility that something you don't recognize on your report could mean you're a victim of identity theft.

Do not hesitate to report to the credit bureaus any information on your credit report that you feel is questionable. Suspicious information could be a red flag that your identity has been stolen. If your credit card is maxed out or new credit cards are opened in your name, it could lower your credit score.

Have You Made Any Late Payments?

If so, it may be time to adapt a new mental approach that encourages you to pay your bills on time. Consider the idea that paying your bills promptly not only a responsibility, but an accomplishment. Even paying the minimum due can help when it comes to your credit card, mortgage, and loan payments. Consider automatic bill pay options or online payments, since many creditors and banks let you set up payment reminders via your account.

Have You Contacted Your Creditors?

If you are not up to speed on your credit payments, you may feel a creditor is the last person you want to talk to. On the other hand, there is always the possibility that reaching out to your credit card issuer can help you resolve any issues. It doesn't hurt to ask if they sponsor any temporary hardship programs that can reduce your monthly payments and help get you back on your feet. Contacting them before you fall behind can help you get back on track before you start racking up late payments that could impact your credit.

Before contacting your credit card issuers, check with your financial advisor to make sure there aren't other solutions that could be better for your financial situation. After all, negotiating your credit card debt could have negative implications to your credit score.

Becky FrostAbout Becky Frost: Becky Frost is senior manager of consumer education for Experian Consumer Services, which offers credit monitoring products like freecreditscore.comTM. Find Becky on Google+.

This article is provided for general guidance and information. It is not intended as, nor should it be construed to be, legal, financial or other professional advice. Please consult with your attorney or financial advisor to discuss any legal or financial issues involved with credit decisions.

 

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Money Minute: Netflix, Comcast Strike Deal; Apple, Samsung Back in Court

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Netflix wins the race for speed -- but at what cost to consumers?

Netflix (NFLX) has agreed to pay Comcast (CMCSA) (CMCSK) to ensure that its programs will be streamed without interference -- making it faster for Netflix customers to download programs. Comcast had reportedly slowed the speed on some transmission, and since its recent agreement to buy Time Warner Cable (TWC), resolving this became a priority for Netflix. What makes this important to all of us -- Netflix subscriber or not -- is that this deal could set a precedent for the way cable companies deal with other content providers. It's not clear yet if Netflix subscribers will have to pay more.

You may have heard of net neutrality. That's the government's attempt to prevent deals like this on the belief that big companies like Netflix will be able to pay, but smaller, start-ups won't. In the long run, that could limit consumer choice. But a court recently ruled the Federal Communications Commission overstepped its authority with the net neutrality rules.

Two other big companies were unable to settle their long-running dispute. Apple (AAPL) and Samsung have been at war over patent rights about the technology that goes into their iPhone and Galaxy smartphones.
Top executives from both companies held a series of meeting with court appointed mediators to resolve the suits and counter-suits against each other, but to no avail. So it appears they're headed back to court next month.

Here on Wall Street last week, the Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) and the Standard & Poor's 500 index (^GPSC) edged lower, while the Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) posted a modest gain.

The North Dakota energy boom has led the resurgence of domestically produced oil and gas. But The Wall Street Journal reports the crude oil shipped from there contains several times the amount of combustible gas as oil produced elsewhere. That could be a contributing factor in a series of railcar explosions including some that led to multiple fatalities.

Finally, the Postal Service is planning to issue a stamp featuring Steve Jobs, the late founder of Apple. Published reports say other famous Americans that will be immortalized on a stamp include rock legends Janis Joplin and Jimi Hendrix.

-Produced by Drew Trachtenberg.

 

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Can TNT's 'Dallas' Succeed Without Larry Hagman?

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The cast of 'Dallas.' (Credit: TNT)

Dallas remains one of TV's most iconic shows, thanks in large part to its impact on pop culture. The drama perfected the TV cliffhanger and introduced arguably TV's biggest villain, both of whose success is credited to the late Larry Hagman. While TNT's (a subsidiary of Time Warner ) version of Dallas (which returns tonight) marched on in the wake of Hagman's passing, many are curious if they can keep it up for another season.


Generation gap

TNT's Dallas works because unlike other reboots, it didn't completely ignore the past; instead it embraced it. The addition of previous cast members such as Hagman, Patrick Duffy, and Linda Gray made it a hit and helped cross the bridge between generations of TV viewers. The show was at times a nostalgic blast that netted solid ratings.

In addition to the established talent, producers also added in Josh Henderson, Jesse Metcalfe, Jordana Brewster, and Julie Gonzalo as the next wave of characters set to inhabit the legendary Southfork Ranch. The quartet quickly proved they were up to the challenge and the notorious rivalries the original version was known for were fired up again and in grand fashion.

The new generation of 'Dallas.' (Credit: TNT)

J.R.

The celebration quickly turned to grief though as prior to the launch of the second season, Larry Hagman passed away from cancer. Audiences mourned along with the cast and crew as they came to terms with the death of one of TV's most charismatic performers. With the permission of Hagman's family and longtime friend and co-star Patrick Duffy, the show decided to carry on in the actor's memory. The series reintroduced the famed "Who Shot J.R.?" storyline and used it to give Hagman the sendoff he deserved.

Now with the "Who Killed J.R.?" angle over, the focus moves onto season 3 where audiences will have to decide if they are still interested in a Dallas without J.R. Ewing. Hagman's larger than life personality is still a major factor -- on-set his name remains number one on the call-sheet and on-air his legacy still carries the same swagger he was known for his entire life. Producers have also assured viewers that while Hagman may be gone, J.R. will still have a strong presence in the show's plot, even if largely in memory.

The future

TNT's decision to renew the show for this third season wasn't an easy one, but it was the right one. It should be up to the audience whether they want to stick with the series. Dallas executive producer Cynthia Cidre and her team have crafted a new group of storylines that inhabit the same feisty and soapy spirit that made the show a long-running hit in the first place. If they can keep it up and continue to draw viewers, it makes it more likely TNT will have the ammo it needs to justify a fourth season.

However TNT's also knows right now it can afford to gamble on Dallas. The nostalgia factor is still in play, and quite frankly it has the timeslot to spare. That won't be the case for long -- TNT has two very strong "event series" type dramas prepping for a summer 2014 bow and if Dallas struggles, it'll likely be the odd show out.

This summer TNT will premiere The Last Ship starring Eric Dane (Grey's Anatomy), Rhona Mitra (Boston Legal), and Adam Baldwin (Chuck), and Legends headlined by Game of Thrones' Sean Bean. Both series have been in the works since early 2013 and are very much in line with where the network is looking to go with its original programming.

While legal procedurals like Major Crimes and Rizzoli & Isles are still on the roster, larger-scale, bigger-budget series like Falling Skies are the new push and that will continue into pilot season where the action series Agent X, starring Sharon Stone, is seeing major buzz.

Cable TV no longer holds the monopoly on off-peak programming as the broadcast networks are beginning to realize the appeal of year-round scheduling. As a result something's eventually got to give, but it remains to be seen if that something will be Dallas.

The article Can TNT's 'Dallas' Succeed Without Larry Hagman? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Brett Gold has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Newmont Mining Corp's Priorities Mean Less Cash Returned to Shareholders

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When reporting its fourth-quarter results, Newmont Mining announced its strategic capital allocation priorities. The company plans to maintain financial flexibility, invest in top development projects, and return capital to shareholders. What's important is that those priorities were named in order of significance. Returning capital to shareholders is in last place, and Newmont's dividend policy highlights this fact.

Dividend should decrease with current gold prices
The dividend policy links the distribution to gold prices. The company starts paying a $0.10 per-share dividend at a $1,200 per-ounce gold price and raises it to $0.20 per share at $1,300-$1,400 per ounce of gold. Going further, every $100 upside in the gold price increases the dividend by $0.20 per share.

For all of January and half of February, gold prices were below $1,200 per ounce. If there's no major price upside ahead, chances are that the average gold price for the quarter will remain below $1,300. This would lead to a $0.10 per-share dividend, a hefty 50% cut from the $0.20 per-share dividend that shareholders received last time.


Will Newmont be able to reduce its debt?
When Newmont states that it wants to maintain financial flexibility, it is primarily talking about reducing its $6.1 billion in debt. This is a significant sum to deal with. In its latest effort to push the debt maturities further into the future, Newmont secured a five-year term loan of $575 million. This loan refinances existing debt that comes due in July.

Newmont's operational cash flow in 2013 was $1.6 billion. If we look into 2014, it's hard to predict that this figure will increase substantially. Yes, Newmont has recently become more cost effective, but gold prices for the most part of 2013 were higher than they are now.

Newmont stated that it did not believe that using equity to pay off debt was a sound business practice and added that it had no intention of doing so. In comparison, Barrick Gold diluted its shares by 16% in November to reduce its debt load. Barrick Gold reduced the value of maturities for the next four years to $1 billion, but the overall debt remains high at $12.9 billion. The offering did not progress at a fast pace, but Barrick was finally able to sell its shares.

As Newmont wants to reduce its debt level but doesn't want to issue equity, it will have to do so with the help of its free cash flow. Capital expenditures this year are estimated between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion. They will decline to $1 billion-$1.1 billion in 2015 and to $900 million-$1 billion in 2016. Does the company have enough free cash to reduce its debt and fund growth projects after we subtract capital spending from operational cash flow? Only if gold prices rise above current levels.

Problems in Indonesia continue
Another irritating fact is that Indonesia tax negotiations seem to lead nowhere. The country has imposed a progressive tax on copper-concentrate exports. This tax turns into a complete ban in 2017. Newmont has argued that this tax violates its existing contract of work, but to no avail.

As a result, Newmont must deliver its production to the country's only smelter at Gresik. Newmont stated that this smelter resumed operation after a maintenance shutdown, and that it expects to ship its concentrate to Gresik as soon as possible. Currently, half of production from Newmont's Batu Hijau mine could be placed at Gresik.

Several companies managed to receive the right to export concentrates from Indonesia, but neither Newmont nor Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold were among them. For Freeport-McMoRan, which operates a huge Grasberg mine deposit in the country, Indonesian operations are very important. Just like Newmont, Freeport plans to negotiate its way through the crisis, but it has had no success on this front so far.

Bottom line
Newmont's shareholders will receive less cash if current gold prices do not improve. What's more, the company's aim to reduce debt and fund several development projects does not combine well with returning cash to shareholders in the current environment. If you are an income-oriented investor, Newmont is probably not your choice.

Newmont may not be right for income investors, but these might be
One of the dirty secrets that few finance professionals will openly admit is the fact that dividend stocks as a group handily outperform their non-dividend paying brethren. The reasons for this are too numerous to list here, but you can rest assured that it's true. However, knowing this is only half the battle. The other half is identifying which dividend stocks in particular are the best. With this in mind, our top analysts put together a free list of nine high-yielding stocks that should be in every income investor's portfolio. To learn the identity of these stocks instantly and for free, all you have to do is click here now.

The article Newmont Mining Corp's Priorities Mean Less Cash Returned to Shareholders originally appeared on Fool.com.

Vladimir Zernov has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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