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State of the Unions This Labor Day: Losing Battles in the States

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Unions have taken a beating this year from state courts and legislatures. The most notable beat-down came in Wisconsin this summer when the state Supreme Court upheld a law limiting collective bargaining rights for public workers. If collective bargaining is limited by the courts -- meaning unions can't negotiate much more than wages, and not greatly at that -- then workers may not see as much benefit in joining them, which further cuts into their strength.

Act 10 limited bargaining rights to pay raises within the rate of inflation. The law also required workers to contribute more for their health care and pensions, a move that Gov. Scott Walker (R) said was needed to lower the state's budget deficit. It did just that, saving Wisconsin taxpayers more than $3 billion, according to the governor.

It also helped lower public sector union membership in Wisconsin. With workers forced to contribute more money to their health care and pensions, some couldn't afford union dues and dropped out of the union. One public sector union in the state saw membership fall by as much as 60 percent.

How Many Union Members Are Left?

The overall effect of moves like this on union membership hasn't been tallied. The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is for 2013, and it shows union membership at 11.3 percent, the same as it was in 2012.

There are 14.5 million wage and salary workers who belong to unions, which is little different than in 2012, but a large drop from the 17.7 million union workers and 20.1 percent union membership rate in 1983, the first year the bureau started collecting such data.

Actions in Michigan and Indiana

Some union contracts call for mandatory union membership of non-managerial employees at specific workplaces, which can leave some people paying for representation they don't want. Michigan and Indiana recently passed laws making union membership and dues voluntary. Before the school year began in August in Michigan, about 1 percent of teachers opted out of the union, with more defections expected.

One teacher, for example, said he objected to having his union dues go toward political causes that supported things he found morally objectionable.

A similar law was enacted in Wisconsin in 2011, after which a third of teachers dropped their union memberships in what's called a "right to work" movement.

For workers who are on the fence about joining a union, some courts are giving them another reason not to join by preventing unions from automatically deducting union dues from their paychecks. Wisconsin's state supreme court did this, as did an Illinois court in a case relating to home-based personal care providers.

Right to Work

In the 26 states without those so-called "right to work" laws, workers can lose their jobs for refusing to pay union dues, according to the National Right to Work Legal Defense Foundation.

Probably the best news for workers who are in unions is that they still make more money than their non-union counterparts. Among full-time workers, union members had median weekly earnings of $950, compared to $750 for those who weren't in a union, according to the BLS.

And what work do most of these union members do? According to the BLS, the highest membership rate is in the public sector, where 35 percent or workers are in a union. It's only 6.7 percent among private-sector workers. Teachers, police officers and firefighters, among other public employees, are heavily unionized, which might give you a bit of extra confidence in the people you are trusting to educate your child, protect you from criminals, or keep your house from burning to the ground; you'll know they feel adequately compensated for their hard labor on your behalf.

 

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Mastermind of $800 Million Fraud Gets 20 Years in Prison

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Businessmen in jail
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By CURT ANDERSON

MIAMI -- The man who masterminded an $800 million insurance scam that fleeced tens of thousands of investors in one of Florida's all-time largest fraud schemes was sentenced Friday to 20 years in prison.

U.S. District Judge Robert Scola gave Joel Steinger, 64, credit for pleading guilty to avoid a lengthy and costly trial and said Steinger's multiple medical problems -- he appeared in court in a wheelchair, with an oxygen tank -- argued against the maximum 50-year sentence sought by prosecutors.

But Scola said Steinger still deserved a lengthy prison term because, as chief executive of now-defunct Mutual Benefits Corp., he orchestrated a fraud scheme that victimized more than 30,000 investors in all 50 states and numerous foreign countries between 1994 and 2004.

"My understanding is that most of the time, on the major decisions, it was you making the decisions," Scola said. "It's clear that you were the mastermind of the criminal enterprise."

The Books Were Cooked in This Ponzi Scheme

The company, first investigated in 2003 by the state Office of Insurance Regulation, bought life insurance policies from people with AIDS, cancer and other chronic illnesses and sold them to investors. The policyholder would get paid an upfront, discounted amount and the investor was promised a larger insurance payout when the person died.

The company promised safety and sky-high returns. But Steinger and others involved in the scam admitted that life expectancy numbers were cooked, the company's financial strength was falsified and eventually older investors were being paid with money from newer ones in classic Ponzi scheme fashion. Mutual Benefits was shut down by the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2004.

Assistant U.S. Attorney Karen Rochlin argued for the longest possible sentence, comparing Steinger to convicted Ponzi schemers Bernard Madoff and Scott Rothstein, the former South Florida attorney who is serving a 50-year sentence for running a $1.2 billion scam involving investments in fake legal settlements. "There should be no others like him ever again," Rochlin said of Steinger.

'It Eats My Guts Out,' Steinger Says

From his wheelchair, Steinger delivered a rambling 40-minute monologue repeating his many health issues and apologizing for hurting investors and his own employees. "It eats my guts out that this turned into a criminal enterprise, that people got hurt," he said. "Nobody intended this to end up the way it did, least of all me."

Steinger is the last of 13 defendants convicted in the case, including his brother, Steven Steiner, who is serving 15 years behind bars. The brothers spell their last names differently.

Part of Friday's hearing concerned Steinger's 2007 assistance to the FBI in an offshoot case involving Dr. Alan Mendelsohn, a Fort Lauderdale eye doctor who was seeking campaign contributions to wield influence among state leaders in Tallahassee. Steinger wore a recording device in conversations in which Mendelsohn falsely claimed he had enough clout to make criminal investigations into Steinger's business disappear. Mendelsohn eventually pleaded guilty in a federal corruption case and was sentenced to four years in prison.

Steinger got little credit in his own sentencing for his cooperation because, as Rochlin put it, he only turned to the FBI about Mendelsohn when investigators were closing in on his own fraud scheme and he didn't help them uncover the truth behind Mutual Benefits. "It was too little, too late," she said.

 

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Market Wrap: Stocks Close Hot August with Another S&P Record

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Financial Markets Wall Street
AP/Richard Drew
By ALEX VEIGA

The Standard & Poor's 500 index (^GPSC) delivered its fourth record high in five days Friday, ending with the biggest monthly gain since February.

The milestone-crushing run capped a week when the S&P eclipsed the 2,000-point mark for the first time. And the index ended August with a gain of 3.7 percent.

Six months of solid job gains, strong company earnings and a bevy of corporate deal news contributed to the rally, part of a bull market that's been rumbling on for more than five years.

The market appeared ready for a correction at the end of July, but the downturn didn't last long. For most of August, stocks have managed to shake off geopolitical conflicts from Ukraine to Gaza and Iraq.

"The market has a good underlying tone," said Mike Levine, portfolio manager of Oppenheimer Equity Income Fund. "People feel like the economy is gaining some strength and the job market is getting better and corporate earnings should be pretty good."

Even in a quiet day of trading ahead of the Labor Day holiday, stocks eked out a gain.

The indexes opened higher, but eased soon after, as investors digested news that consumer spending fell and income growth slowed in July.

Traders also had their eye on the conflict in Ukraine, as a group of European Union foreign ministers accused Russia of invading the eastern region of the country and said Moscow should be punished with more economic sanctions.

The markets began to recoup some losses by midmorning, however, when a gauge of consumer sentiment indicated greater optimism in August, particularly among higher-income groups. Some better-than-expected company earnings also lifted stocks.

Overall, the indexes wavered between small gains and losses throughout the afternoon.

"We're seeing a listless, pre-holiday market," said Drew Wilson, an investment analyst at Fenimore Asset Management.

The S&P 500 index finished up 6.63 points, or 0.3 percent, to 2,003.37. It closed above 2,000 for the first time on Tuesday and has gained 8.4 percent this year. The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) gained 18.88 points, or 0.1 percent, to 17,098.45. The Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) added 22.58 points, or 0.5 percent, to 4,580.27.

Stocks rose broadly, with all 10 sectors in the S&P 500 index higher for the day, led by utilities.

The gains marked the index's best August since 2000.

"It's been a good August," said Linda Duessel, senior equity market strategist at Federated Investors. "I imagine it's the end of the month and people closing their books are saying 'I better show I'm invested, we had a brand-new high this week,'" she said.

Nevertheless, some investors may be more hesitant next month.

September is widely considered the stock market's worst month.

Since World War II, the S&P 500 index has ended the month with a loss half of the time. Recently, however, September has been good to investors. The S&P 500 has turned in a September loss just twice in the last decade: in the depths of the financial crisis in 2008 and following a fight over raising the government's borrowing limit in 2011.

Last September, investors saw an array of threats lined up after Labor Day, including a fight over the federal budget and a possible U.S. attack on Syria. The result? The S&P 500 gained 3 percent.

Elsewhere in the markets, bond prices were little changed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note held at 2.34 percent.

In metals trading, gold slipped $3 to $1,287.40 an ounce, silver fell 14 cents to $19.40 an ounce and rose a penny to $3.14 a pound.

The price of oil rose for the fourth day in a row on concerns about the escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia, the biggest oil exporter outside of OPEC. Benchmark U.S. crude rose $1.41 to close at $95.96 a barrel. Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils used by many U.S. refineries, rose 73 cents to close at $103.19. Wholesale gasoline rose 3 cents to close at $2.783 a gallon. Natural gas rose 2.1 cents to close at $4.065 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Among the stocks making big moves Friday:
  • Avago Technologies (AVGO), which makes semiconductors used in smartphones, computer servers and other devices surged $5.73, or 7.5 percent, to $82.09. The big gain came after the company reported earnings that beat analysts' estimates. Avago rose the most in the S&P 500 index and touched an all-time high.
  • Splunk (SPLK) soared 19.1 percent after the data management software developer reported earnings late Thursday that beat expectations. It also raised its full-year profit and revenue estimates. The stock gained $8.64 to $53.93.
  • Tesla Motors (TSLA) and a state-owned Chinese phone carrier announced plans Friday to build 400 charging stations for electric cars in a bid to promote adoption of the technology in China. Tesla increased $5.84, or 2.2 percent, to $269.70.

AP Business Writers Kelvin Chan in Hong Kong and Matthew Craft in New York contributed to this report.

What to Watch Monday:
  • U.S. stock and bond markets are closed for Labor Day.
What to Watch Tuesday:
  • At 10 a.m. Eastern time, the Institute for Supply Management releases its manufacturing index for August, and the Commerce Department releases construction spending for July.

 

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Olive Garden Can't Cook Its Way Out of This Mess

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Olive Garden's Take Our Daughters and Sons to Work Day Celebration
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One has to wonder if Olive Garden parent Darden Restaurants (DRI) will ever get it right. The meandering casual-dining giant announced on Thursday that it's delaying its upcoming annual shareholder meeting. The event is being bumped from the end of September to Oct. 10.

Delaying a meeting by 10 days isn't the end of the world. Darden has clearly been through worse. However, we can't ignore that the reason for the delay is that it has been having difficulties getting its proxy statement materials finalized and approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Activist investors have been rattling the cages at Darden, and that's apparently making it harder than usual to get the required materials out to shareholders on time.

Turning to Starboard

It's been two years since I argued that Olive Garden and Red Lobster -- Darden's two flagship eateries at the time -- would never be great again. There's no reason to back off that brazen statement now.

Both concepts have been posting declining comparable-restaurant sales for several quarters, and Darden unloaded Red Lobster this summer at a price that was apparently too low for some activist investors.

Longtime CEO Clarence Otis also announced this summer that he would be retiring later this year, a move that Starboard Value -- the activist investor that has an 8 percent stake in the company and that has been the most vocal about its displeasure with Darden's performance -- claims was long overdue.

Starboard has been hard to please. Despite the resignation of Otis and the agreement to nominate just nine candidates to its dozen-member board -- opening up the board for Starboard nominees -- the activist investor wants more. It doesn't want Darden filling up the majority of the seats, even if they are independent board members. In short, this annual shareholder meeting is delayed because the war is far from over.

Spotlight on Olive Garden

With Red Lobster bowing out, it will be up to Olive Garden to carry the weight at Darden Restaurants. Darden also runs several smaller and potentially promising concepts, including Seasons 52, LongHorn Steakhouse and Yard House, but Olive Garden accounted for 57 percent of the revenue from continuing operations in Darden's latest quarter.

The spotlight shining on Olive Garden is starting to feel more like a heat lamp. Darden closed out it fiscal 2014 year with negative comparable-restaurant sales at Olive Garden for all four quarters. We'll soon find out how things played out for Olive Garden during the fiscal first quarter of 2015. Darden reports on Sept. 12, and analysts are bracing for a sharp drop in profitability.

Why have patrons turned on Olive Garden? Is it the quality of the food, the perceived value of the meals or service concerns? There are plenty of casual-dining operators smarting these days, but there are also plenty of market leaders that are doing just fine in growing their store-level traffic and sales.

A Wilting Garden?

Darden's trying to please its investors. It is taking chunks of the $2.1 billion that it sold Red Lobster for earlier this year to pay down debt and buy back shares. It's also standing firm on its quarterly dividend that adds up to $2.20 a share over the course of an entire year.

Analysts see Darden earning just $2.23 a share this year, and given the way that the company has missed Wall Street's profit targets in three of the past four quarters, one has to wonder if it will earn enough to cover its payouts.

More important, the activist distractions and Darden's emphasis on returning money to its shareholders may limit what it can do to make Olive Garden popular again. It's clear that recent menu tweaks that have included new premium salad toppings, an actual hamburger and happy hour pricing on select appetizers aren't enough. Olive Garden is still going in the wrong direction, and the longer it backpedals, the farther it will be from where it used to be when it was a concept that rocked.

Motley Fool contributor Rick Munarriz and the Motley Fool have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our newsletter services free for 30 days.

 

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How Coca-Cola Built Up Its Business Way Beyond Soda

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www.minutemaid.com
As demonstrated by its recent purchase/asset-swap deal with energy drink company Monster Beverage (MNST), Coca-Cola (KO) is more than just a slinger of soda. The company draws billions of dollars in revenue from a other liquids, including Dasani water and Powerade sports drinks.

That's par for the course in the sugary beverage industry. Coke's eternal rival PepsiCo (PEP) does a brisk business selling drinks that aren't soda, such as the Starbucks (SBUX) ready-made concoctions it offers in partnership with the coffee giant. PepsiCo, in fact, draws most of its revenue from food products. These include notable brands such as Doritos and Quaker Oats.

Diversification is key in this business; there's only so much cola the world is willing to drink. With that in mind, here's a look at a trio of influential asset buys Coke made outside of its signature fizzy product line that have molded it into the behemoth we all know and love and will continue to shape the company.

Minute Maid (1960)

The history of Coca-Cola as a brand and company can be broken down roughly into three eras -- the soda fountain era (beginning when Coke was first served in 1886 to 1898), the bottle era (from 1899 to 1959), and what we can call the diversification era (from 1960 to the present).

The latter began when Coke made its first non-soda buy that year. Through a stock swap it acquired the now-familiar line of orange juice products, notable for being the first such juice available in frozen concentrate form (making it available year-round no matter a customer's location).

From then on, Coca-Cola became a company selling more than only carbonated beverages. This was a smart move -- these days, the firm boasts 11 non-soda brands that each take in more than $1 billion in revenue. They're Minute Maid (U.S.), Del Valle (South and Central America), Georgia (Japan), Aquarius (Japan), Powerade (U.S.), BonAqua (Hong Kong), Sokenbicha (Japan), Dasani (U.S.), Vitamin Water (U.S), Simply Orange (U.S.) and Minute Maid Pulpy (China).

Columbia Pictures (1982)

The early 1980s marked a brief era when Coke ventured far out of the beverage business to diversify.

The target asset was Columbia Pictures, a storied Hollywood movie studio. Coke made an overwhelming bid for the company of $750 million, and just like that, it was in the film business.

The results were mixed. The studio had success with several releases (like the enduringly popular underdog story "The Karate Kid"), but also unloaded the comedy "Ishtar" on the world. The expensive, poorly reviewed film became one of the most notorious bombs in Hollywood history.

In spite of Columbia's wins (which also included TV hits thanks to Embassy Communications, a small-screen production outfit it bought in 1985), it couldn't escape the hit to its finances and reputation incurred by the $40 million loss from "Ishtar."

It was time for Coke to return to fundamentals, and in 1989 it sold the bulked-up Columbia to a much more entertainment-oriented company, Japanese electronics giant Sony (SNE), for a fizzy $3.4 billion.

Keurig Green Mountain (2014)

Sometimes it's better to take an anchor stake -- and reach production, distribution and marketing deals with a target company -- rather than buy it outright.

That seems to be the ambition for Coke with the Monster Beverage deal, as well as the arrangement it reached this past February with Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR). For $1.25 billion, Coke took a 10 percent stake in Keurig (later raised to 16 percent), maker of the K-Cup beverage pod brewing system.

The two also signed a 10-year agreement to mutually develop Coke-branded offerings for the latter's Keurig Cold at-home drink-making device.

Cold is a clear attempt by Keurig to grab some do-it-yourself-soft-drink market share from SodaStream (SODA), which has seen its sales grow robustly over the past few years. There's money to be made in this market, so Coke and Keurig are making a lunge for it.

Expanding by Degrees

Might this be the future for Coke: purchases of minority stakes and co-development deals? The company's acquisitions have historically been full-on buys rather than strategic purchases.

The Monster Beverage and Keurig deals indicate a more cautious approach for the soda maker, as befits its stature as a conservative enterprise investors can rely on for profits and dividend income. Time will tell if this style of expansion will sweeten Coke's results or not.

Motley Fool contributor Eric Volkman has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Coca-Cola, Keurig Green Mountain, Monster Beverage, PepsiCo, SodaStream and Starbucks. The Motley Fool owns shares of Monster Beverage, PepsiCo, SodaStream and Starbucks and has the following options: long January 2016 $37 calls on Coca-Cola and short January 2016 $37 puts on Coca-Cola. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

 

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Is SeaWorld Doing Enough to Silence the Haters?

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www.seaworldparks.com
SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS) is tired of seeing its brand sink all the way down to Davy Jones' locker. SeaWorld is taking steps to address the criticism that activists have been hailing at the theme park operator since last year's "Blackfish" documentary began to gain traction depicting the downside of having killer whales in captivity.

Bigger tanks are coming. SeaWorld is backing down from requests to have its trainers performing in the water. It's also back to heavy promotional activity to get turnstile clicks increasing again. Will it be enough?

SeaWorld has been moving quickly to restore its image since seeing its stock lose nearly a third of its value a couple of weeks ago after posting devastating quarterly results. It's not easy to bounce back when social media turns on you, but SeaWorld investors hope that it's up to the task.

So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish

SeaWorld's been making some conciliatory moves since Wall Street's displeasure with its second quarter's financial performance. The biggest move from a public relations standpoint is that it announced new habitats for its orcas.

Two days after seeing its stock plunge 33 percent following the unsettling quarterly report, SeaWorld announced that it was updating its tanks. Starting with SeaWorld San Diego, the killer whale environment will have its capacity nearly double to 10 million gallons of total water volume. Viewing areas will expand so park guests can enjoy Shamu and friends even when they're not performing. A common complaint is that the current environments are too small. This may not silence the concerns entirely; many protesters argue that the killer whales need to be set free. San Diego's new environment will open to the public in 2018. SeaWorld Orlando and SeaWorld San Antonio will follow shortly after that.

SeaWorld has also ended its legal fisticuffs. SeaWorld has been battling the Occupational Safety and Health Administration in court after regulators demanded that the park stop placing trainers in the water with the killer whales. OSHA acted after a SeaWorld Orlando trainer died during a 2010 performance. The U.S. Court of Appeals sided with OSHA last April, and SeaWorld was readying an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. It has decided not to expose itself to any more negative publicity by forgoing the appeal.

Doubling the size of its tanks and keeping trainers out of the water would seem to address the two biggest concerns raised in "Blackfish," but it remains to be seen if that will be enough to silence the social media venom and the occasional picketers at its marine life attractions.

Cutting Bait

SeaWorld doesn't have much of a choice. Many consumers have turned on the company. At a time when most theme park operators are thriving in an economy that's taking baby steps toward prosperity, we're seeing SeaWorld still retreating.

Attendance declined 4.1 percent across its family of parks last year, and it's off by another 4.3 percent through the first half of the year. Things aren't likely to get better anytime soon. SeaWorld's updated guidance is now calling for revenue to decline by as much as 7 percent for all of 2014. Most of the national and regional amusement parks have experienced an uptick in traffic.

Bad things happen when guests stay away. SeaWorld's earnings have fallen short in back-to-back quarters, and the operator's refreshed outlook calls for profitability to suffer an even sharper decline.

Swimming Against the Current

At least one analyst believes that SeaWorld is bottoming out here. FBR upgraded SeaWorld's stock a week after its report. With the stock hitting an all-time low in the high teens, it wasn't an outlandish call if one truly believes that the brand can bounce back. FBR sees the world's obsession with animals and zoos eventually coming around to accepting SeaWorld back into the fold.

SeaWorld isn't taking any chances. For the first time since going public at $27 early last year, attendance growth outperformed revenue growth. Revenue per capita took a surprising dip in SeaWorld's latest quarter, suggesting that the company is getting more generous in offering deals and discounts.

The promotional activity didn't end there. A few days after its stock's meltdown, SeaWorld offered its Fun Card -- passes that are good for unlimited visits through the end of the calendar year -- as a "buy one, get one free" promotion during that weekend. Discounts and partly conceding to activists aren't ways that companies prefer to succeed, but SeaWorld's exhausted most of the other alternatives.

Motley Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has no position in any stocks mentioned. He's a seasonal resident of Central Florida, living in Celebration -- near SeaWorld Orlando -- when he's not in Miami. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our newsletter services free for 30 days.

 

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Market Wrap: Tech Dip Takes a Tick Out of Stocks

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Samsung Electronics Co. Unveils The Galaxy Note 4
Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesThe new Samsung Galaxy Note Edge smartphone was unveiled Wednesday, which took a toll on rival Apple's stock price.

By MATTHEW CRAFT

NEW YORK --- The relief that greeted reports of a possible cease fire in Ukraine faded on Wall Street, as a slide in Apple and other technology stocks tugged the U.S. stock market to a small loss Wednesday.

News that that Russia and Ukraine were close to reaching a cease-fire agreement rippled through markets early, lifting stocks in Europe and pushing up oil prices. In the U.S., the stock market headed higher at the start of trading then sagged in the afternoon.

One reason was Apple (AAPL), the market's top heavyweight. The tech giant's stock slumped $4.36, or 4 percent, to $98.94 after its rival, Samsung, introduced two Galaxy smartphones with displays aimed at quick access to frequently used applications. Analysts expect Apple to unveil iPhones with bigger screens next week.

Shares in other big tech companies, including Amazon (AMZN) and Facebook (FB), also fell than 1 percent or more. Of the 10 sectors in the S&P 500, technology companies lost the most.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (^GPSC) slipped 1.56 points, a fraction of a percent, to end at 2,000.72. The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) rose 10.72 points, or 0.1 percent, to 17,078.28. The Nasdaq composite (^IXIC), which is dominated by large tech companies, sank 25.62 points, or 0.6 percent, to 4,572.57.

Markets have barely moved this week even with news that, in other times, might cause investors to cheer.

Any good news has to be unusually good to push the S&P 500 past 2,000 and further into record territory, said Uri Landesman, president of Platinum Partners, an investment fund in New York.

"Above 2,000, discretion is the better part of valor," Landesman said. "Most people are kind of reluctant to jump in right now."

Another encouraging report on the U.S. economy came out Wednesday. The Commerce Department said that orders for U.S. factory goods shot up 10 percent in July, the biggest one-month jump on records going back to 1992. That followed strong figures for manufacturing activity and construction spending on Tuesday.

"Everything right now is pointing to greater market strength," said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. market strategist at RBC Capital Markets. "What usually stops bull markets? It's almost always a recession." And there are no signs of a recession on the horizon, he said.

In Europe, markets surged following reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart had agreed to the broad terms of a peace plan to stop the fighting in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine and Western countries say Russia has armed insurgents in eastern Ukraine. Moscow denies it.

Germany's DAX climbed 1.3 percent. The CAC-40 in France picked up 1 percent. Russia's benchmark MICEX soared 3.5 percent.

Craig Erlam, market analyst at Alpari, said the reports of a cease-fire were "welcomed with open arms by the markets."

The hope, he said, must be that economic sanctions on Russia would soon be lifted, which could help the European economy reclaim lost ground.

"We can't forget that the effects of the crisis have been felt in many countries beyond those directly involved," said Erlam.

The crisis in Ukraine has played a role in hampering the European economic recovery this year. In its monthly survey of the 18-country eurozone, financial information company Markit pointed to the conflict as a culprit behind a sharp fall in its gauge of business activity. Some economists expect the European Central Bank to announce new measures on Thursday to help pull the region out of a rut.

Back in the U.S., Delta Air Lines (DAL) tumbled 5 percent, the steepest drop of any company in the S&P 500. The airline cut estimates for a measure of revenue, blaming "events in Russia, the Middle East and Africa," an apparent reference to fighting in eastern Ukraine, war in Syria, and an Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Shares in Delta dropped $2.11 to $38.82.

U.S. government bond prices inched up. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note slipped to 2.40 percent, down from 2.42 percent late Tuesday.

In metals trading, the most active contract for gold rose $5.30 to settle $1,270.30 an ounce. Silver inched up 4 cents to $19.19 an ounce, and copper slipped 3 cents to $3.13 a pound.

The price of oil rose sharply on hopes that the possible accord between Russia and Ukraine would lead to increased economic activity and oil demand in Europe. Benchmark U.S. crude oil jumped $2.56 to close at $95.54 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils used by many U.S. refineries, climbed $2.43 to $102.77 in London. Wholesale gasoline rose 7.7 cents to close at $2.620 a gallon. Natural gas fell 4.3 cents to close at $3.847 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Youkyung Lee in Seoul, South Korea contributed to this report.

What to Watch Thursday:

  • Payroll processor ADP (ADP) releases private-sector employment figures for August at 8:15 a.m. Eastern time.
  • At 8:30 a.m., the Commerce Department releases international trade data for July, and the Labor Department releases second-quarter productivity data and weekly jobless claims.
  • At 10 a.m., the Institute for Supply Management releases its service sector index for August, and Freddie Mac releases weekly mortgage rates.
These major companies are scheduled to release quarterly financial results:
  • Cooper Cos. (COO)
  • Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV)
  • Mattress Firm Holding (MFRM)
  • Verifone Systems (PAY)
  • Zumiez (ZUMZ)

 

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Index Fund Booster Takes Victory Lap: How You Can Win Too

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wall st
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I started writing books extolling the virtues of index fund investing back in 2006. At that time, there were already many advocates of the concept, including Burton Malkiel, Larry Swedroe and, of course, John Bogle. The problem then (and even now) was that we were like canaries in the coal mine -- small voices warning of a larger danger.

We were massively outnumbered and significantly outspent. Stories about outsized returns, "hot" fund managers, market timing and underperforming stocks dominated the financial media. They still do.

We were derided and trivialized when we discussed index funds on television. I appeared on CBNC's "Power Lunch" on May 15, 2009. At the time, CNBC used the slogan "In Cramer we trust" as part of its marketing.

I've written a number of blog posts describing how Jim Cramer's antics harmed investors. In one, I quoted David Swensen, a respected financial author and chief investment officer of Yale University, who believes Cramer "exemplifies everything that's wrong with the advice -- and I put advice in quotation marks -- that is given to individual investors." I also referred to a study by Barron's that found "Cramer's recommendations underperform the market by most measures."

This interview represented my chance to make my views known to CNBC's own audience. I couldn't resist. When asked by CNBC's Brian Schactman about the best ways to save for retirement, I said, "One of the things that you could do instead is to give us more 'in Bogle we trust' and much less 'in Cramer we trust.' "

An Angry Cramer Crashes the Interview

Cramer stormed onto the set. With his eyes bulging, he trashed index funds with this comment: "In all due respect, the S&P is flat literally for 10 years. That's John Bogle's world. If you were to sell at 11,000 like I told you in September, 10,000 like I told you in December, and then get back in at 6,500, who wins? Is that so bad? Is that worth not trusting in?"

Cramer continued his rant: "I've had it with the people who tell me about the index fund," he screamed. "For 10 years they've done nothing! For 10 years! When do they get called on the carpet? When are they ever wrong? Do we have to wait another 10 years? Enough of this! I've said my piece."

Investors would understand that Cramer and others who peer into their crystal balls are emperors with no clothes.

In retrospect, I can understand his anger. If investors followed the evidence and limited their investments to a globally diversified portfolio of index funds, in a suitable asset allocation, he would be irrelevant. Investors would understand that Cramer and others who peer into their crystal balls are emperors with no clothes. They pretend to have an expertise that doesn't exist. His show would be quickly canceled.

What a difference five years has made. Charles Ellis, author of "Winning the Loser's Game" and an adviser to Yale's endowment fund, published an article about the fall of performance investing in Financial Analysts Journal. Ellis, a long-time proponent of indexing, concluded that the costs of active investments are so high and the incremental returns so low, "the money game is no longer a game worth playing."

What Hindsight Shows Us

John Rekenthaler, the director of research for Morningstar (MORN), questioned the future of active management. He noted that net sales over the past 12 months for all index-based funds was 68 percent of the total market share, compared to only 32 percent for active funds. His conclusion was stunning: "Active managers have become the periphery. As the slogan goes, there is core, and then there is explore. Active management is no longer core."

Perhaps the death blow to active management came from Warren Buffett. In Berkshire Hathaway's 2013 letter to shareholders, Buffett noted that he instructed his trustee to invest his wife's inheritance in low-cost index funds.

I never believed I would see the time when index-based investing would be considered mainstream. And while this is a welcome development, most investors are still not benefiting from it. According to Morningstar, as of July 31, assets in passive U.S. funds were $3.11 trillion, compared to $5.50 trillion in actively managed funds.

Before I take my victory lap, I want you to join me by dumping your actively managed funds and your individual stocks. You should recognize that no one has the skill to time the markets. If you do have brokers or advisers who are telling you they can "beat the markets" using actively managed funds, you need to make a change. Join the mainstream and become an evidence-based investor.

Dan Solin is the director of investor advocacy for the BAM Alliance and a wealth adviser with Buckingham. He is a New York Times best-selling author of the Smartest series of books. His latest book is "The Smartest Sales Book You'll Ever Read."

 

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8 Best Things to Buy in September

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All good things must come to an end: the wearing of white, prime grilling weather and, of course, summer. As we enter the reign of "ber" months, though, remember that sometimes when good things end, better things take their place. For example, you can look forward to a bounty of pumpkin spiced beverages to consume, a splattering of gorgeous fall foliage photos across social media, and plenty of shopping deals to sate your consumer hopes and dreams.

 

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Michael Bloomberg Returning to Lead Namesake Media Firm

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Michael Bloomberg Returning to Lead Namesake News Firm
Scott Roth, Invision/APFormer New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg
NEW YORK -- Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg is returning to lead the financial data and news company he founded in 1981 but left to serve three terms in City Hall.

The company, Bloomberg LP, said Wednesday that current CEO Daniel Doctoroff will step down at the end of the year.

Doctoroff was a deputy mayor under Bloomberg. His departure makes way for Bloomberg to take back the helm of the company, of which he still owns more than 85 percent.

The 72-year-old Bloomberg handed the reins of America's largest city to Bill de Blasio on Jan. 1.

In a statement, Bloomberg said he never intended to return to his company after 12 years as mayor. But after reacquainting with its operations, he said, he couldn't resist its lure.

"I have gotten very involved in the company again and that led to Dan coming to me recently to say he thought it would be best for him to turn the leadership of the company back to me," said Bloomberg, whose company has grown to employ more than 15,000 people in 73 countries and has made him a billionaire.

Doctoroff joined Bloomberg LP in 2008 and became CEO in July 2011. Before that he served six years as Bloomberg's deputy mayor for economic development. He said he had no job lined up but in the short term would focus on his not-for-profit interests.

Bloomberg, whose fortune Forbes estimates at $33.2 billion, credited Doctoroff with guiding the company through the financial crisis of 2008 and the deep recession that followed.

Bloomberg LP is privately held and isn't obliged to divulge financial information, but it said Wednesday that its revenue grew to more than $9 billion this year from $5.4 billion in 2007. Its subscribers have grown to 321,000 from 273,000, it said, while it added more than 500 reporters and editors.

 

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Before TWX Spurned Fox: 3 Mega-Mergers That Almost Were

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Earns Walt Disney
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Big corporate mergers have been a fact of business life for many years.

This summer, one such high-level combination was almost born when media powerhouse 21st Century Fox (FOXA) made a bid for longtime rival Time Warner (TWX). But Time Warner's board turned down the $85-a-share cash and stock offer (valuing its target at roughly $80 billion), and Fox unceremoniously abandoned the attempt.

That was hardly the first would-be multibillion dollar tie-up attempt that failed. Here's a look at three other prominent deals that never reached consummation.

Comcast/Walt Disney (2004)

Years before Walt Disney (DIS) evolved into a powerful conglomerate owning world-beating intellectual property like Marvel Comics and the "Star Wars" saga, it was a troubled company distracted by a cutthroat battle over the leadership of its board of directors.

Cable TV provider Comcast (CMCSA) made an attempt to win the Mouse in those dark days of 2004. Initially, Comcast approached the focus of that power struggle, then-CEO and board chairman Michael Eisner, with an offer to begin merger negotiations. According to Comcast, though, he was unwilling to discuss such a tie-up.

Undaunted, the cable purveyor directly approached Disney's board with a buyout bid valued at around $66 billion. That attempt was also rebuffed; the board unanimously voted against it because the bid was too low.

Today's aftermath: Disney is currently coming off a quarter that saw its net income soar, with all divisions of the company turning in a bottom-line profit.

In 2009, Comcast went after NBCUniversal, making an ultimately successful bid to grab a majority stake in the broadcaster. It initially took a 51 percent stake in the firm, operating it as a joint venture with General Electric (GE) until it bought out its partner in early 2013.

Today, Comcast is the sole owner of NBCUniversal, and its anchor network -- NBC -- competes directly with Disney's key TV asset, ABC.

Microsoft/Yahoo (2008)

In spite of its success in software, Microsoft (MSFT) has never built a commanding presence on the Internet. In 2008 it attempted to rectify this by offering nearly $45 billion for Yahoo (YHOO), then and now one of the most recognizable names in cyberspace. That shook out to $31 a share, a premium of over 60 percent on the then-current stock price.

That wasn't good enough for Yahoo's top brass, at the time led by founder and CEO Jerry Yang. They took barely over a week to say no, saying that the bid substantially undervalued the company, according to Bloomberg.

Microsoft played hardball, notifying Yahoo that it would take the case directly to shareholders and possibly launch a proxy fight. Again the approach was rejected. Microsoft conceded defeat soon thereafter.

Today's aftermath: There weren't many winners. Yahoo shareholders were deprived of a nice payout, with the shares cratering after Microsoft's exit; they wouldn't hit the $30-plus level until late 2013. Following the Microsoft misadventure, Jerry Yang was out as CEO within a year.

And Microsoft still doesn't have a compelling presence online, in spite of the billions of dollars pumped into assets like its Bing search engine. Its CEO captaining the Yahoo bid, Steve Ballmer, left his position earlier this year.

AT&T/T-Mobile USA (2011)

In 2011 AT&T (T) made a concentrated effort to take over the scrappy rival now known as T-Mobile US (TMUS). In March of that year it offered a $39 billion mix of cash and stock to acquire the firm (then a subsidiary known as T-Mobile USA). This was accepted by its parent Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY).

If successful, the purchase would have made AT&T the largest player in its segment by far, accounting for an estimated 42 percent of all American cellphone service subscribers. But months after the offer was made, the Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit in federal court to block the merger.

It's hard to beat the Feds in court, and at the end of that year AT&T formally ended its attempt to buy T-Mobile USA. It was obligated by the terms of its agreement with Deutsche Telekom to pay the German firm a breakup fee of $4 billion in cash and wireless spectrum access.

Today's aftermath: T-Mobile US is still an attractive merger candidate, it seems. Up until several weeks ago, it and Sprint (S) were deep in merger talks before the latter walked away.

Unsuitable Partners?

Since these high-profile bids, none of the three above-mentioned merger targets has been snapped up by a hungry rival. At this point, there's a good chance none will; Disney has a $154 billion market capitalization, Yahoo is worth $38 billion, and T-Mobile weighs in at $24 billion. In other words, they'd make pricey acquisitions no matter how well-funded a potential bidder might be. So, they're likely as good as off the market and -- like Time Warner -- stand as proud, go-it-alone independents ... at least for now.

Motley Fool contributor Eric Volkman owns shares of Walt Disney. The Motley Fool recommends Walt Disney and Yahoo. The Motley Fool owns shares of General Electric Co., Microsoft, Walt Disney and Yahoo. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

 

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September Is the Cruelest Month - for Investors

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Title:  Grizzly BearCreative image #:  CC001054License type:  Royalty-freePhotographer:  Art Wolfe/Jason ReedCollection:
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Trying to be a market timer is usually a losing proposition for investors, but some seasonal patterns are hard to ignore.

In the long history of the Standard & Poor's 500 index (^GPSC), September is the worst-performing month -- by far -- as big-time portfolio managers return from their summer vacations. The index has averaged a decline of more than 1 percent in all of the Septembers since 1928. That includes the worst monthly performance ever, a nearly 30 percent plunge in September of 1931. By the way, the market ended that month at 9.71; it started this month at a record high 2003.37.

Since 1928, the S&P has posted gains 39 times in September, lost ground on 46 occasions and once ended the month unchanged.

"If I was a shorter-term investor, I'd look at that trend," said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, "but not if I'm in for the long term. It depends on what your time frame is."

The Worst Septembers

Just this century we've seen four of the market's worst monthly plunges come in September:
  • 2001, down 8.2 percent.
  • 2002, down 11.0 percent.
  • 2008, down 9.1 percent.
  • 2011, down 7.2 percent.
The loss in 2008 included the market meltdown on Sept. 29, when the Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) plummeted 777 points and the S&P lost 106.

So should these numbers tell us anything about how we should adjust our investment portfolios right now? Probably not a lot, but analysts say that investors might want to be a little bit cautious right now, especially because the S&P 500 is at an all-time high after a five-year bull market run that may be getting tired. Many believe the market is due for a pullback, but that doesn't necessarily mean we'll get one any time soon. There's also growing worries that the mounting geopolitical concerns in Ukraine, Syria Iraq and elsewhere could rattle the markets here and abroad.

The Worst Days in October

If you want to look out over the next 60 days, October also causes lots of anxiety for market historians. While the S&P 500 averages a small gain (up 0.4 percent) historically, many of the market's biggest one-day crashes have come during that month, including three of the 10 biggest losses ever:
  • Oct. 26, 1987 -- down 20.5 percent.
  • Oct. 30, 1929 -- down 12.5 percent.
  • Oct. 6, 1931 -- down 12.4 percent.
You can see why October is not so affectionately known on Wall Street as the 'jinx month." However, October also has marked the end of bear markets on 11 occasions, most recently in 2002. Many investors think October is a good time to buy stocks, ahead of the big gains we often see in December and January, which are traditionally two of the best performance months of the year.

Silverblatt also notes that market volatility has been extremely low over the past few years, so "any volatility that hits today is going to be difficult for investors to swallow."

 

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Twitter Is Paying Hackers to Find Bugs

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Twitter Is Paying Hackers to Find Bugs

By Rebecca Borison

Twitter has introduced a "bug bounty program" that will pay volunteer security researchers a minimum of $140 for reporting any vulnerability or bug.

The program, called HackerOne, was established for independent security researchers "to recognize their efforts and the important role they play in keeping Twitter safe for everyone." When researchers report an issue, Twitter (TWTR) will hand over some cash to thank them for their time.

While the minimum reward is $140, Twitter says that there is no maximum reward -- the amount will depend on the severity of the bug reported.

There are a few qualifications to meet before you can eligible for the reward, however.

For instance, you have to be the first to report the bug, and you can't publicly disclose the bug before Twitter fixes it. You also can't live in Cuba, Sudan, North Korea, Iran, or Syria, where the national law prohibits Twitter from paying hackers.

According to the HackerOne website, 44 hackers have already been thanked and 46 bugs have been closed. In addition to the cash reward, the hackers are also featured in a hall of fame.

Facebook has offered a similar program since 2011, with a minimum reward of $500. Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG) have similar programs, too. So if you're choosing between these platforms to carry out some independent research, Facebook (FB) or Microsoft might be willing to pay you more for your efforts.

 

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Central Bank Watch: European Central Bank Cuts Rates, Band of England Does Not

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118167478The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England have now made their decisions on interest rates and rate policy for September. The Bank of England effectively did nothing, while Mario Draghi and the ECB decided they better take some actions.

The monetary policy decision by the Governing Council of the ECB acted on interest rates by lowering the rate on the main refinancing operations by 10 basis points to 0.05%. The rate on the marginal lending facility was cut by 10 basis points to 0.30%. And the negative rate policy for reserves continues, with the interest rate on the deposit facility cut by 10 basis points to -0.20%.

One word of caution on the ECB and Mario Draghi needs to be considered on Wednesday. The market was hoping for news of asset purchases to the tune of somewhere around 500 billion euro. The market may have to wait for this in the actual press conference, which will come shortly after the formal rate decision is announced.

As for the Bank of England, it left its policy unchanged. The asset purchase program was left at 375 billion pounds with maturities continuing to be reinvested.

Some of the news was expected, but we would still look for further commentary from Mario Draghi later in the morning. Stay tuned.

READ ALSO: The Best (and Worst) Countries to Find a Full-Time Job


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Private Job Growth Slows a Bit, but Service Sector Upbeat

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adp employment report
Alan Diaz/AP
By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON -- U.S. companies hired fewer workers than expected in August, but an acceleration in service-sector activity to a nine-year high offered assurance that the economy remained on track for a sturdy rate of growth in the third quarter.

That view was reinforced by other data Thursday showing only a slight increase in the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week and a decline in the trade deficit to its lowest point in six months in July.

"The story line of growth momentum at least being sustained and at best picking up this quarter has more or less been confirmed, and this is certainly encouraging," said Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD Securities in New York.

The ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls increased by 204,000 workers last month after rising by 212,000 in July.

While that was below economists' expectations for a gain of 220,000 jobs, it marked the fifth straight month of private sector employment gains above 200,000. The increases in payrolls also were broad-based.

The report is jointly developed with Moody's Analytics.

The data was released ahead of the government's more comprehensive employment report on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased by 225,000 last month after advancing by 209,000 in July, according to a Reuters survey.

In a separate report, the Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 59.6 last month, which it said was the highest reading since its inception in January 2008. That compared to a reading of 58.7 in July.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the vast services sectors.

A subindex of service industry jobs increased solidly, which bodes well for August payrolls.

The upbeat job-market picture was also captured in another report from the Labor Department that showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits increasing by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 302,000 for the week ended Aug. 30, but still at levels consistent with tightening conditions.

The job market is being closely monitored for clues as to when the Federal Reserve will start tightening monetary policy, having kept its benchmark overnight lending rate near zero since December 2008.

Trade Deficit Narrows

The strength the U.S. economy has exhibited in recent months stands in sharp contrast to the euro zone, which is flirting with recession and deflation. The European Central Bank on Thursday cut interest rates to new record lows in an attempt to spur stronger activity.

The dollar rose to a 14-month high against the euro. U.S. stocks traded higher, while prices for U.S. Treasury debt fell.

In a third report, the Commerce Department said the U.S. trade deficit fell 0.6 percent to $40.5 billion in July, the smallest gap since January. June's trade deficit was revised to $40.8 billion.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the deficit to widen to $42.2 billion from a previously reported $41.5 billion shortfall in June.

When adjusted for inflation, the deficit narrowed to $48.2 billion, the smallest gap since December 2013, from $48.9 billion in June. That could see economists raise their estimates for third-quarter gross domestic product. Third-quarter GDP growth estimates range as high as a 3.5 percent annual pace.

Trade weighed on growth in the April-June period.

Exports increased 0.9 percent to a record high of $198.0 billion in July, supported by a surge in goods, automobiles, parts and engines, as well as non-petroleum products.

Imports rebounded 0.7 percent to $238.6 billion after declining in June, a sign of underlying strength in domestic demand.

The increase in imports was driven by food and autos, which both hit record highs.

Petroleum imports declined, which saw the petroleum deficit hitting its lowest level since May 2009. A domestic energy boom has seen the United States reduce its dependence on foreign oil.

The politically sensitive trade gap with China was the highest on record in July.

-With additional reporting by Ryan Vlastelica and Caroline Valetkevitch in New York.

 

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Microsoft Debuts New 'Affordable Flagship' Lumia Smartphone

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Markus Schreiber/APMicrosoft introduced the new Lumia 830, left, and 730 smartphones Thursday.
By Harro Ten Wolde

BERLIN -- Fresh from acquiring Nokia's handset business, Microsoft (MSFT) unveiled the first of its new range of Lumia smartphones Thursday, priced to challenge a market dominated by volume leader Samsung and Apple.

A week before Apple (AAPL) is expected to launch its new iPhone 6, Microsoft, which paid $7.2 billion this year to acquire the Nokia (NOK) business, introduced at the IFA consumer electronics fair in Berlin its new "affordable flagship" phone, the Lumia 830.

The new Lumia will sell globally at a price of around 330 euros ($433), before taxes, or upward of 400 euros($525) in all.

As previously expected, Microsoft also introduced a five megapixel, front-facing camera phone called the Lumia 735 which has been dubbed the "selfie-phone" since it was demonstrated in-house to Microsoft employees in July and features a wide-angle lens for close-in photos of small groups or individuals.

The Lumia 735 will be available globally this month for 219 euros, before taxes or subsidies, for a version designed for the latest 4G networks while the third new phone, the Lumia 730, is priced at 199 euros, excluding tax, which will run on more commonly available 3G networks.

The new phones flesh out the upper end of the Lumia line-up, which has regularly won good reviews from technology experts but has yet to gain a significant following from consumers.

Smartphones run on Microsoft's Windows software, mostly Lumias, captured only 2.7 percent of the global smartphone market in the second quarter, down from 3.8 percent the year before, according to research firm Strategy Analytics.

In comparison, Google (GOOG) Android phones had a smartphones market share of 85 percent, while Apple's iPhone had 11.9 percent, down from 13.4 percent a year ago. Samsung, the market leader among Android-based phone makers and in smartphones overall, had a market share of 25.2 percent, down from 32.6 percent a year ago, as a result of increasingly stiff competition from lower-cost Chinese makers.

Forrester analyst Thomas Husson said Microsoft is focusing on a mid-tier strategy with a good mix of hardware and software that represents "another step in the right direction."

But while the Lumia line is gaining some traction among marketers and app developers that it needs to draw in consumers with creative software and services, he said Microsoft must become a bigger player before the industry considers it a third, "must-support" mobile platform as Android and Apple already are.

Microsoft's new chief executive, Satya Nadella, has often said the company must be "mobile first, cloud first" in order to compete in new tech markets and extend its dominance in computing beyond the PC into phones and Web-based software.

-With additional reporting by Bill Rigby in Seattle.

 

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Labor Department Weekly Jobless Claims Remaining Low

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179125086The U.S. Labor Department is out with its reading on weekly jobless claims. Applications for jobless benefits rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 302,000 for the week ending August 30. Dow Jones and Bloomberg both were calling for 300,000. The prior week's report of 298,000 was unchanged in its revision.

The four-week average rose by 3,000 to 302,750. Continuing claims, or the army of the unemployed (reported with a one-week lag each week), fell by a sharp 64,000 to 2,464,000 million. This is now at a low that has not been seen since 2007.

While the government's usual disclaimer of "There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims" was made, we would note that this last week and this current week could have some noise around the weekly numbers due to the Labor Day holiday.

Thursday's Labor Department report comes with a mixed fanfare. It is not enough to sway the expectations for Friday's unemployment and payrolls report in either direction. The consensus estimates for Friday's report are as follows:

  • Bloomberg expects nonfarm payrolls estimate of 230,000 from a relatively soft July reading of 209,000; Dow Jones estimates of 225,000.
  • Bloomberg estimates the private sector payrolls of 220,000.
  • Bloomberg and Dow Jones both see the official unemployment rate at 6.1%, which would be slightly lower than July's 6.2% but would be identical to June.

READ ALSO: America's Favorite Six-Figure Jobs


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ADP Payrolls Report Unlikely to Sway Labor Department Estimates

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jobsThe ADP payrolls report was released Thursday morning, showing that private sector payrolls increased by 204,000 in the month of August. This came in short of Bloomberg's estimate of 223,000, and the previous month of July marked a level of 218,000. The ADP Small Business report added 78,000 jobs for the month, while the National Franchise Report showed 21,360 new jobs.

Employment in goods-producing jobs rose by 41,000 in August, compared to the 23,000 increase in July. Also the construction industry gained 15,000 jobs this month just above the previous month. Manufacturing hit a high of 23,000 new jobs, which had not been seen since the end of 2012.

Service-producing employment increased by 164,000 in August, which fell from July's total of 190,000. ADP mentions that professional and business services fell to 51,000 for this month from the previous month's 60,000. Trade, transportation and utilities grew by 28,000, which fell from 43,000 in July.

Carlos Rodriguez, the president and CEO of ADP, said, "August marks the fifth straight month of employment gains above 200,000 continuing an encouraging trend for the U.S. labor market."

Businesses with less than 50 employees totaled at 78,000 for August, which fell from 89,000 in July. Medium-sized firms — 50 to 499 employees — rose by 75,000, which was down from 88,000 in the previous month. Large companies marked a bigger increase from the previous month, totaling at 52,000, from the previous 35,000.

This report is derived from ADP's payroll data, which represent 411,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 24 million workers. The report also measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally adjusted basis.

READ ALSO: America's Disappearing Jobs


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U.S. Trade Deficit Falls Slightly

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cargo shipThe U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the international trade gap narrowed in July, which reflects a higher demand for U.S. goods overseas. The trade gap reads at -$40.5 billion, which beat the Bloomberg estimate of -$42.3 billion. The Wall Street Journal economists had forecast a deficit of -$42.5 billion.

July saw gains in both categories, as exports totaled $198 billion and imports totaled $238.6 billion. Ultimately this is a shrinkage of 0.6%, which reflects a higher rise in exports, from June. The July goods deficit decreased to $60 billion from the June level of $60.2 billion, and the services surplus remained unchanged at $19.6 billion.

Exports of goods increased to $138.6 billion while imports of good increased to $198.8 billion. Exports of services increased slightly to $59.4 billion and imports of services remained unchanged at $39.8 billion. The notable increases in exported goods were automotive vehicles, industrial supplies and capital goods. At the same time, consumer goods, foods, feeds and beverages decreased in exports.

Monthly reports of trade deficits rarely move the markets. Still, these show a barometer of how goods and services are being sold into and out of the country.

READ ALSO: Companies That Control the World's Food


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Home Depot Said to Contact Secret Service Over Alleged Breach

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The Home Depot
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By Mark Hosenball

WASHINGTON - Home improvement retailer Home Depot (HD) has been in contact with the U.S. Secret Service about an alleged major breach of customer and credit card data that came to light this week, a law enforcement source told Reuters on Thursday.

Any investigation by the Secret Service appears to be at a very early stage, the source said.

The Secret Service, which declined comment, usually is the lead agency in federal criminal investigations into complex breaches of credit card and other consumer data.

Another law enforcement source said the FBI, which also sometimes participates in such investigations, doesn't appear to be involved. It is unclear whether the U.S. Department of Justice is playing any role.

Customer data could have been stolen from nearly all of Home Depot's 2,200 stores in the United States, according to information released Wednesday by security blog Krebs on Security.

Home Depot hasn't confirmed that a breach occurred and it remains unclear whether or how many customers were impacted.

If confirmed, the Home Depot incident could be among the most widespread in the string of security breaches at U.S. retailers in the recent past.

Spokeswoman Paula Drake said Wednesday that the retailer is working with IT security firms, including Symantec (SYMC) and FishNet Security, to investigate whether there has been a data breach.

A Symantec spokeswoman confirmed that Symantec was assisting with the investigation but didn't elaborate.

Home Depot sought to comfort its consumers, promising free identity-protection services, including credit monitoring, to any potentially impacted customers and reassuring that the retailer or the banks that issued the cards will be responsible for any fraudulent charges.

Home Depot shares were up 1.6 percent at $90.39 Thursday morning on the New York Stock Exchange.

Concerns about a potential Home Depot data theft follow a major breach at retailer Target (TGT), where hackers late last year stole at least 40 million payment card numbers and 70 million other pieces of customer data.

-With additional reporting by Alina Selyukh in Washington, Nandita Bose in Chicago and Subrat Patnaik in Bangalore, India.

 

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