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Collings: Lost Art of Handmade Guitars Still Alive in Texas

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Reviving the Lost Soul of a Guitar

It's beginning to rain on a hot afternoon in Austin, Texas, but Bill Collings doesn't seem to notice. Sitting across from me in a rusty metal chair behind his factory that makes guitars, mandolins and ukuleles, Collings passionately describes his struggles to design the perfect guitar case.

The sudden downpour is refreshing, as is the conversation. Collings looks and acts like anything but the typical top brass, despite owning and running Collings Guitars Inc., which employs more than 100 people and manufactures stringed instruments from steel-string archtop guitars to ukuleles for the likes of Lyle Lovett and Joni Mitchell.

Dressed in ripped jeans and a lovingly faded T-shirt, he enthusiastically jumps from topic to topic, adding in the occasional wry joke without missing a beat.

Collings journey to success has been unconventional, as are the philosophies he trusts to guide his business. While giants in the industry like Fender and Gibson have largely automated their manufacturing processes, a Collings guitar is still made mostly by hand. He estimates that each of his guitars takes about 55 hours of labor to complete, while his competitors spend around four to five hours each on their product.

But Collings has weathered the Great Recession and bounced back in recent years, by building a company that prioritizes quality over automation, buoyed by the belief that people will pay a little more for something with lasting value ... something with a soul.

Chapter 1: The Road to Right

Collings became a luthier, the technical name for a guitar-maker, when he was just 14, stringing rubber bands onto an old cigar box to make his first guitar. "My friends and I would always be building gadgets," he remembers. "I always had a thing with guitars."

But Collings never took a shop class in school, a decision he later realized stemmed from silly prejudice. "When my dad went to school, the most important class he took was shop class. He had a person showing him how to make things," Collings says. "When I grew up, the shop class was supposedly for dumb kids. I didn't want that stigma. That's why I was going to be a doctor."
bill collings guitars handmade musical instruments texas
Josh Franer/Man Made ContentCollings Guitars CEO Bill Collings.
But he never made it to medical school. He left his hometown of Cleveland for Houston in the 1970s. At first, he worked in machine shops, manipulating metal. But soon he switched to working with wood -- and began daydreaming about building his second guitar, this time with real wood and strings. It took him a year of thinking about it before he hand built it using a chisel, hammer, saw and plane. "It sounded great," Collings remembers.

Maybe, he thought, he could actually make guitars for other people. At the time, the music scene in Houston was thriving and Collings reached out to a local musician, offering to make him a guitar if he'd foot the bill for the wood. After that musician played the guitar on stage, Collings instantly got 10 orders. "Back then I thought, 'Oh, this is easy!' " he says. "But really, I got lucky."

Over the next few years Collings supported himself mostly by repairing, not making guitars. By the time he moved to Austin in the 1980s, he was ready to take his passion seriously. "What if I just tried to make my guitar business work?" he wondered.

Collings struck a business agreement with a local seller, George Gruhn Guitars. He built guitars for Gruhn, but also built a reputation for himself by adding his stamp inside the instruments. When Gruhn went through a bumpy financial patch, Collings decided to set up his own shop. "Now we are doing it my way," he says.

"His way" is making instruments much the same way as iconic brands like Martin and Larson Brothers Guitars did back at the turn of the 20th century. Collings and his team handpick the wood for each instrument -- even going on wood-finding missions across the globe. The guitars, mandolins and ukuleles are all hand crafted, but Collings does give a nod to new technology, using a computer-guided saw called a CNC machine to cut the woods to fine tolerances. But then they are put through a rigorous assembly process that is all done by human hands.

The difference between us and our biggest competitors is that everyone who works here cares as much as I care and they're given more.

The journey from raw wood to a finished product involves a staggering amount of steps. Each instrument is overseen by multiple employees who individually make sure that the quality is up to Collings' standards. Specially designed braces are adhered to the inside of the instrument. The neck joint is adjusted so the guitars' sound is never compromised. Lacquer is applied in specific amounts, then sanded down and adjusted between multiple coats.

But it's more than the steps that make a Collings instrument. It's about how much Collings has infused his way of making stringed instruments into every person who works at the company.

"The difference between us and our biggest competitors is that everyone who works here cares as much as I care and they're given more," Collings says. "We're not making 10 of the same guitars, we make 10 individual guitars one at a time."

In a bigger factory, Collings says he would have a stack of 100 guitar tops and 100 backs and the employees would put them together "by the numbers ... not really paying attention to the wood, how it fits -- I'd be just making it like an object. We're building guitars here, there's the difference."

Despite the higher labor and production costs, Collings has faith that keeping a hands-on approach will continue to be the key to success.

"In a world where everything is overly mass produced, it's better to stand out," he says. "Craftsmanship is getting harder to come by, and I think people want something of quality. A guitar doesn't have to be expensive, but it can't be mass-produced, because it almost never has that right feeling. Guitars are special to people, they really are."

Chapter 2: The A-Ha Moment

Like her boss, Bonnie Chipman grew up thinking she was destined for a white-collar job. In her case, it was being an architect. But like Collings, guitars also intrigued her.

Her mother owned two -- a '54 Gibson and a '68 Martin -- that she was allowed to play as a child. "I was always just fascinated by the structural side of the guitar," she says.

But childhood fascination gave way to adulthood and five years at Texas A&M's engineering school. Burned out, but ready to embark on an engineering career, she had one of those moments that changed her life completely.

Collings guitar handmade texas musical instruments
Josh Franer/Man Made ContentCollings Guitars employee Bonnie Chipman.
"I crashed my bike and shattered my collar bone and broke my back," Chipman says. "Instead of performing surgery on me, they stuck me in a back brace and told me not to do anything. Don't drive, don't shower, don't move."

She had a lot of time to think about where her life had been headed and where she really wanted it to go. "Building instruments had been a passion of mine," she says. "But I'd kept it secret because structural engineering was the path I was headed on, and this was pretty different. But life is too short, so I just went for it."

After taking luthier classes, Chipman joined Collings where she started making guitar flat-tops. Now she builds mandolins. Despite giving up a more traditional career, she hasn't given up what she learned in engineering school.

"I'm using it in a different way, which is a lot more challenging," she says. "When I first started engineering, I thought it would be a lot more hands-on, but when I realized it wasn't, I was very disappointed. I didn't want to sit in front of a computer all day and have my eyes glaze over. I'm a visual person -- I like physically touching, smelling and listening to things."

She starts each morning by touching wood, gluing Collings' signature braces to the inside of her instruments. Then she builds the exterior hoops that give the instrument its shape. All the while, she's rushing back and forth from her bench to check on the CNC machine, which cuts pieces for instruments on a constant basis. By day's end, she has two completed mandolins.

"It's the most satisfying feeling in the world to pick up that mandolin body that I've spent weeks assembling, and see it all come together," says Chipman. "It's very emotional. It's not like having a kid ... but it is!"

Chapter 3: Upping the Frequency

Ask Bill Collings about the future of his company and the name Aaron Huff will most likely come up in the conversation. "He's got a killer instinct," Collings says.

Huff arrived on Collings' doorstep with no technical training. In fact, he had studied archeology, anthropology and geology in college. But like Collings, he also loved making things and spent much of his free time in school making furniture.

Intrigued by the young man, Collings found odd jobs for him to do -- from working with the mandolins to buffing the acoustic guitars. Then Huff began shadowing Collings as he worked on the exclusive, high-end archtop guitar line. "To get involved in that was a really big privilege," Huff says. "I took it on personally, like I do with a lot of things."

Soon, Huff was presented with a new challenge -- making an electric guitar worthy of the Collings name. Since the company started in 1989, Collings had only ever made acoustic guitars. But in the early 2000s, Paul Reed Smith, an electric guitar company, decided to move into Collings' turf, making acoustic guitars. As Collings jokingly puts it, "Those were fighting words."

I really do take it personally when I'm making these guitars.

If Collings had made his name as a luthier perfecting the acoustic guitar, the electric guitar was going to be Huff's proving ground. They weren't a success when they first came out in 2005.

"I think we built a lot of guitars at first that never left on purpose," Huff says. Together with Collings himself, the team twisted what they already knew was out on the market, and began to learn what it took to make a Collings-level electric guitar. "There were a lot of valuable takeaways from that experience," he says. "We made a bunch and we listened to them. If they sucked, instead of getting all hurt, you learn from it and grow."

Almost a decade later, the electric guitar business is core to Collings. "They're a bread and butter component of the company. We produce a bunch of them and they're killer," Huff says. But he labors on, never satisfied that they've reached perfection. "I really do take it personally when I'm making these guitars."

Like his mentor, Huff believes the company's future lies in staying true to the details. "We have to convince a whole new world that this is something they want to be a part of, and how do you do that?" Huff says. "You show that this is a guitar that not only looks cool and sounds amazing, but it does something beyond that. These were made with real purpose."

Looking for more Made in the U.S.A. stories? Check out This Built America.

 

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How Spending 30 Minutes Now Can Save You $1,000 Next Spring

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How 1/2 Hour Now Can Be Worth $1,000 Next April

By Maryalene LaPonsie

With a headline like that, you might be prepared for a bait and switch. But we're serious here. You really can save up to $1,000 in only a half-hour. However, there is a catch. We have to talk about taxes. I know! Who wants to talk about taxes in September? Not me, that's for sure.

While tax planning isn't anyone's idea of fun, it doesn't have to be long, difficult or painful. In the amount of time it would take to find out if the family on "House Hunters" is going to pick the perfect home or compromise for the obviously inferior property (hint: they always compromise), you could have done something to ensure you'll have an extra $1,000 next April. Here are six ways.

1. Find Deductions Hiding in Your Closets

The first way to put that half-hour to good use is by cleaning out your closets and taking the contents to your favorite thrift store for a tax deduction.

Set the timer for 30 minutes and go wild. Be ruthless. It's like "Supermarket Sweep," but you're cruising through your home rather than running through the grocery aisles.

Those skis Junior never used? Gone. The baby clothes from your 4-year-old? Outta here. The scrapbooking supplies that haven't seen the light of day in two years? Sayonara.

This strategy has a double benefit. Not only do you get a deduction that can lower your tax bill next year, you're also making space just in time for the rush of holiday gifts that will be arriving shortly.

2. Beef Up Your Retirement Savings

Another way to use those 30 minutes is to review your retirement accounts and see if you can afford to contribute a little more.

For 401(k) and 403(b) accounts through your workplace, you can contribute up to $17,500 this year, an amount that can be deducted from your taxable income. If you're 50 or older, you can contribute up to $23,000.

Even if you don't have an employer-sponsored retirement fund, you can contribute money to your own IRA and get the same tax benefits. IRA contributions for most workers are maxed out at $5,500 in 2014, with those 50 and older eligible for a deduction on up to $6,500 in contributions.

Depending on your tax bracket, you could save 30 cents in taxes for every dollar you contribute to an eligible fund. Remember, there are income caps for some of these deductions, and you get an immediate tax benefit only if you have a traditional 401(k), 403(b) or IRA. If you have a Roth account, you still get tax benefits, but not until after you retire.

3. Dump Your Stock Losses

If you have some stocks, grab a cup of coffee and spend 30 minutes reviewing your portfolio.

Are any perpetually underperforming? If so, now is a perfect time to dump them. You can deduct up to $3,000 in losses from your income, enough to conceivably save as much as $1,000 at tax time, depending on your bracket.

While you're reviewing your stocks, don't forget you can donate them to charities, too. Make a gift of some overachieving stock to your favorite 501(c)3 organization, and then you can take a deduction for its full value.

You avoid the capital gains tax by making a donation, potentially reduce your tax liability with the deduction and, because the organization is tax-exempt, it can cash in without paying taxes either. It's a win-win.

4. Max Out Your Health Savings Account

If you're one of the nearly 17.4 million people with an eligible high-deductible health insurance plan, you should definitely consider opening or adding to your health savings account.

HSAs let you meet your deductible, co-pay and coinsurance requirements using tax-free dollars. In 2014, you can contribute up to $3,300 to your HSA if you have single coverage or $6,550 for a family plan.

If you have the financial means, maximizing your HSA contributions each year can be an excellent way to reduce your tax liability. Unlike flexible spending accounts, which operate under a "use it or lose it" system (although you may be able to carry over $500 to the following year), money in an HSA will roll over each year, so you can build up a healthy savings account for medical emergencies.

5. Check in With a Pro

Actually meeting with a finance pro will probably take longer than 30 minutes, but you only need a half-hour to find someone and make an appointment.

Despite the fact that I feel confident managing my own money and savings, I recently sat down with an adviser for a financial checkup. I didn't go into the meeting expecting much but was surprised at the outcome. Having a fresh set of eyes looking at the numbers proved to be helpful in identifying new ways to save. It also gave me a shot of motivation to stay the course when it comes to sticking to my spending and saving goals.

Remember, some professionals might be more interested in making money than working in your best interest. However, if you can find the right adviser, they should be able to provide information and advice on how to minimize your tax liability, maximize investments and cut out unneeded expenses and fees. There are several ways to evaluate financial advisers.

6. Spend a Little Quality Time Online

Finally, if you don't feel inclined to meet with an adviser, at least spend 30 minutes looking for DIY ways to save money in advance of tax season.

Sure, this is shameless self-promotion, but we have an excellent knowledge base of information here, if I do say so myself. Search for "tax hacks 2014" for a collection of our articles from the past year, stories that will help you do everything from finding helpful tax apps to ferreting out those hard-to-find deductions and credits.

All the above suggestions can be done or initiated in about 30 minutes or less and may result in tax savings of up to $1,000 or more. You could try these strategies at any time in the next few months, but need I remind you that Halloween is practically here? Then, the winter holiday craziness is right behind.

Best get this done during the relative calm of the early fall. There will always be reruns of "House Hunters" to watch later. I promise.

 

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Are These 'Dividend Aristocrat' Stocks Really Less Than Elite?

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Earns Sherwin Williams
Pat Wellenbach/AP
Dividend stocks have become a key source of income for many investors. Low interest rates on more conservative investments like bonds and bank CDs have forced those who need investment income from their portfolio to shift toward stocks, and stocks with histories of consistent dividend growth look especially attractive.

Yet those who aren't familiar with stock investing can draw false conclusions from popular ways of tracking dividend stocks. In particular, the distinction of being a so-called "Dividend Aristocrat" is unquestionably one of the highest achievements most dividend stocks ever reach. But you have to look closely at the numbers to ensure that a company isn't simply hanging on to its Dividend Aristocrat status on a technicality.

What It Takes to Be a Dividend Aristocrat

Dividend Aristocrats have increased the amount of dividends they pay to shareholders every year for at least 25 consecutive years. Over a quarter-century, a company has to demonstrate that it can thrive under strong economic conditions and more sluggish periods. Those that grow their dividend even in tough times show a degree of resiliency that most stocks can't match.

Setting a quarter-century requirement for annual dividend increases limits the number of Dividend Aristocrats to just a few dozen. But when you look more closely at the stocks that make the list, you can see that while some companies legitimately seek to boost their payouts by substantial amounts year in and year out, others seem merely to make increases for the sake of retaining their Aristocrat status -- and don't reward shareholders nearly as much for their loyalty.

Giving Shareholders the Tiniest of Raises

One sign of a less-than-total commitment to dividend investors is when a stock makes only token increases to its dividend. For instance, steelmaker Nucor (NUE) has a more than 40-year track record of raising its payout to shareholders annually. But all four of the company's annual dividend increases since 2010 have been just a quarter-cent per share every three months, amounting to less than a 3 percent rise in dividend payments in four years. Technically, Nucor paid a higher amount each year, but it's hard to give the company much credit for the tiny gains. Walmart (WMT) is another example, having limited its dividend increase earlier this year to a single penny, or slightly more than 2 percent, after a nearly 20 percent hike in 2013. These stocks meet the letter of the law, but they don't necessarily display the level of optimism that investors would prefer to see.

Another thing to watch out for is a Dividend Aristocrat with an unimpressive dividend yield. Just because a company grows its payout over the years doesn't mean that it pays a huge amount to shareholders. Paint maker Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is one example, with its 36-year record of annual payout increases only managing to equate to a 1 percent yield at current prices. Mutual fund and investing specialist Franklin Resources (BEN) has an even uglier yield of 0.85 percent, and that's even after taking into account a 20-percent dividend increase late last year. For those seeking income from their portfolio, these picks won't do a lot to provide regular dividend payments that can help cover living expenses.

Accusing these stocks of gaming the system is a bit harsh. But given that there's little difference between paying the same dividend and making a minor boost, dividends that rise by just a tiny amount or pay an insignificant yield to make future increases easier to swallow certainly make it look like their companies are interested only in preserving their spot on the Dividend Aristocrats list.

Follow the Money

These examples shouldn't lead you to ignore Dividend Aristocrats entirely. Most of the members of the list combine substantial dividend growth with above-average yields, and they still represent a great starting point for investors looking for safety and consistency of income.

What you do need to realize, though, is that just because a stock is a Dividend Aristocrat doesn't automatically mean that it has the favorable attributes that you're looking for. When you see a Dividend Aristocrat that doesn't meet your needs for dividend yield or future growth potential, don't hesitate to reject it and find a stock that does fit the bill.

You can follow Motley Fool contributor Dan Caplinger on Twitter @DanCaplinger or on Google+. He has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Nucor and Sherwin-Williams. To read about our favorite high-yielding dividend stocks for any investor, check out our free report.

 

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Feds Deny Allowing 'Excessive' Executive Pay at GM, Ally

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Automotive News World Congress
GM paid then-CEO Dan Akerson $9 million in cash and stock in 2013.
By Paul Lienert and Bernie Woodall

DETROIT -- The U.S. Treasury last year permitted top executives at General Motors (GM) and Ally Financial (ALLY) to collect "excessive pay" while those companies were part of a taxpayer-funded government loan program, a special inspector general reported Wednesday.

The Treasury responded that the report contained "many inaccuracies and omissions," saying the department balanced limits on executive compensation "with allowing companies to repay taxpayer assistance."

According to Christy Romero, special inspector general for the U.S. Troubled Asset Relief Program, "Treasury significantly loosened executive pay limits resulting in excessive pay for [the] top 25 executives" at GM and Ally while "taxpayers were suffering billions of dollars of losses" on loan repayments and share sales, said the report, prepared for Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew.

Treasury said executive pay packages for the top executives at GM and Ally were "restricted" while those companies were receiving government funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, known as TARP.

The 2009 rescue of the largest U.S. automaker was implemented under TARP, which disbursed billions of dollars to failing U.S. companies. As part of the bailout, Treasury took a substantial stake in GM and sold the last of its shares in December.

In a statement, GM said: "We remain grateful for the assistance we received from taxpayers. While the U.S. Treasury owned GM stock and ever since, we have worked to align executive compensation with the long-term interests of stockholders and we will continue to do so."

Ally said in a separate statement that it was "pleased to have been able to more than repay the American taxpayer" despite "significant restraints" imposed by TARP. Ally also said its executive compensation plan "meets the requirements for TARP companies."

The U.S. Treasury still holds a 13.8-percent stake in Ally.

GM Chief Executive Officer Dan Akerson, who helped revamp the automaker after its 2009 government-sponsored bankruptcy and taxpayer-funded restructuring, was paid $9 million in cash and stock in 2013, according to regulatory filings. Akerson retired in January.

His successor, Mary Barra, was paid $5.3 million in cash and stock in 2013, when her title was executive vice president.

GM noted earlier this year that it put in place "a more appropriate performance-based compensation structure" after Treasury sold its GM shares.

The automaker also said its executive compensation plan is pegged to similar plans at a group of 20 large multinational companies in various industries, including General Electric, Ford Motor (F) and Chevron (CVX).

In April, Treasury said it lost $11.2 billion on the $49.5-billion GM bailout.

GM's Mary Barra Stays Focused on Putting Customer at Center of Goals

 

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Market Wrap: U.S. Stocks Advance After 3 Days of Declines

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Financial Markets Wall Street Federal Reserve
AP/Richard Drew
By KEN SWEET

NEW YORK -- U.S. stocks rebounded Wednesday and had their best performance in more than a month, led by gains in health care and consumer staples companies.

Once again, investors were willing to step in to buy any noticeable dip in the market, even as more bad news emerged about Europe's economy and worries over violence in Iraq and Syria continued.

The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) advanced 154.19 points, or 0.9 percent, to 17,210.06, its best day since Aug. 18. The Standard & Poor's 500 index (^GPSC) rose 15.53 points, or 0.8 percent, to 1,998.30 and the Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) rose 46.53 points, or 1 percent, to 4,555.22.

The gains came after three days of losses for the S&P 500 and two straight days of triple-digit losses for the Dow Jones industrial average. With the gains Wednesday, the Dow recovered more than half of what it lost Monday and Tuesday.

The biggest gainer in the S&P 500 was Bed Bath & Beyond (BBY), which rose $4.64, or 7.4 percent, to $67.33. The home furnishings company reported a quarterly profit of $1.17 a share, two cents above analysts' expectations. The company also raised its full-year forecast.

Walmart (WMT) rose $1.48, or 2 percent, to $77.08, making it the second-biggest advancer in the Dow. The retail giant took a big step into the financial services sector, announcing a new checking account program for customers in collaboration with Green Dot. The news sent Green Dot (GDOT) shares soaring $4.59, or 24 percent, to $23.41.

Investors also got a positive report on the U.S. economy. Sales of new homes jumped 18 percent in August, reaching an annual rate of 504,000, according to the Commerce Department, far better than the 430,000 rate economists had expected.

Even with Wednesday's gain, there's a lot of caution in the market, traders say.

Investors continue to focus on Europe's economic malaise and tensions in the Middle East after the U.S. and several Arab nations attacked the Islamic State group's headquarters in Syria.

The Ifo business confidence index in Germany, Europe's largest economy, dropped for a fifth month in September. The decline was larger than expected and confirmed that Europe's economy remains weak. The day before, a closely watched business gauge for the region fell to a nine-month low. The eurozone's economy has been flat or barely growing since April, hobbled by the lingering effects of a debt crisis, uncertainty over a conflict in Ukraine and a lack of confidence among consumers, businesses and banks.

"It's clear now that the Russian sanctions are causing a slowdown in the European economy, particularly manufacturing," said Anastasia Amoroso, a global markets strategist at JPMorgan Funds. "But we see this as a temporary soft patch."

Health care stocks rebounded after taking a beating at the start of the week on news that the U.S. was tightening rules on a tax-saving maneuver called an "inversion." Many of the companies using the tactic, in which a smaller company is acquired overseas so that the U.S. company can move its headquarters there and take advantage of lower tax rates, have been health companies.

AbbVie (ABBV), which fell nearly 2 percent Tuesday, rose 2.6 percent Wednesday.

Other health care names helping the overall market were the biotechnology stocks such as Biogen (BIIB), Celgene (CELG) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX). They all rose 3 percent or more.

U.S. government bond prices fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.57 percent from 2.53 percent the day before.

In other markets, benchmark U.S. crude oil rose $1.24 to $92.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil rose after the government reported a larger-than-expected decline in oil stocks. Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils used by many U.S. refineries, rose 10 cents to close at $96.95 on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

In other energy futures trading on the NYMEX, wholesale gasoline rose 3.5 cents to close at $2.664 a gallon, heating oil rose 0.6 cent to close at $2.689 a gallon and natural gas rose 9.5 cents to close at $3.911 per 1,000 cubic feet

The euro slid to $1.28 and the dollar rose to 108.94 Japanese yen. The price of gold fell $2.50 to $1,219.50 an ounce. Silver fell eight cents to $17.70 an ounce and copper rose two cents to $3.05 a pound.

What to Watch Thursday, Sept. 25:
  • At 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, the Labor Department releases weekly jobless claims; and the Commerce Department releases durable goods for August.
  • Freddie Mac releases weekly mortgage rates at 10 a.m.
  • Nike (NKE) and Micron Technology (MU) release quarterly financial statements after U.S. financial markets close.

 

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5 Things Windstream Holdings' Management Wants You to Know

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Shares of Windstream Holdings have been crushing the market in 2014. The stock has soared 46% higher year to date, on a dividend-adjusted basis, while the S&P 500 index only gained 8%.

WIN Total Return Price Chart

WIN Total Return Price data by YCharts


The company stands at a crossroads right now. Windstream's business performance doesn't exactly match the company's dazzling stock chart. A game-changing conversion into a real estate investment trust (REIT) is about to reshape Windstream's entire business model.

To gain more insight into what's driving Windstream at this moment, I dove into the company's latest earnings call. Here are five of the most poignant management insights I found.

Source: Windstream

What, exactly, will the new REIT manage?

The majority of the assets are fiber and copper distribution systems. We're also including the central office buildings. Importantly, as we noted, the IRS has confirmed that these assets are ratable assets but the other point, these are long lived assets. So as you think about them as an opportunity to invest, they should be looked at as assets that have a long life. A lot of the other assets that are maintained by Windstream are the electronics and the other equipment that are not ratable but enable the distribution system to work.

--Tony Thomas, Windstream CFO

So the REIT will manage almost anything related to real estate assets, with an eye toward long-haul returns. Meanwhile, the New Windstream operation manages the networking equipment inside. That includes refreshing the machinery to keep up with new networking technologies, and is more of a growth-focused operation than a long-life asset play.

It's a very simple division, but an effective idea nonetheless. Dividend investors should love the REIT but might hate the riskier service-and-technology business. Growth investors with a lower sensitivity to risk will lean in the opposite direction. And when the separation is complete, each investor can buy shares in one or the other of these very different business models, according to preferences and investing strategies.

Debt, liquidity, and leverage

We ended the quarter with ample liquidity comprised of $640 million in revolver availability and $55 million in cash. Net leverage was 3.9 times adjusted OIBDA [profits]. As part of the spin-off transaction, we expect Windstream to reduce debt by $3.2 billion and lower leverage. Following the transaction, Windstream will have a leveraged target of three times OIBDA.

--Tony Thomas, Windstream CFO

Many REIT conversions are simply aimed at lowering tax payments. Not this one. Windstream is unlocking asset-based value and restructuring its massive debt load in a game-changing way.

This is important because Windstream's $8.7 billion long-term debt load results in massive interest payments. In the second quarter, 86% of Windstream's EBIT income was funneled into interest payments. Anything that helps Windstream lighten this anchor around its neck will boost bottom-line profits and give the company more room to try new business ideas.

Meanwhile, the REIT unit won't mind the debt so much because it won't be expected to grow earnings all that fast. Big dividend payers with dependable revenue streams can get away with that sort of thing -- and Windstream's REIT will qualify on both counts.

Source: Windstream

Cash flow progress

For the first half of 2014, we generated adjusted free cash flow of $440 million, up 6% over the same period last year due to declining fiber-to-the-tower investments and lower cash interest.

We have returned over $300 million to our shareholders in the form of dividends during this period.

--Tony Thomas, Windstream CFO

Pulling fiber-optic networks out to cell towers has been a drag on Windstream's free cash flows for years, but these expensive installations are finally slowing down. Tower operators and their wireless telecom customers like fiber connections, because they are essential to modern 3G and 4G broadband services. The old bundle of copper-based T1 lines can only handle 1.5 megabits per second, while a single fiber line can carry many gigabits. These upgrades remove a major bottleneck from the wireless data experience, and network carriers insist on fiber in new installations nowadays.

So this was an important project for Windstream, which will provide the foundation for carrier service sales for decades to come. All the same, removing that capital expense pressure from the cash flow statement will boost Windstream's cash flows and support its generous dividend payouts.

Focus on business services

We continue to position our enterprise business to achieve a targeted long term growth rate of 2% to 4% while improving the stability of our consumer channel. We have expanded our business marketing programs to strengthen sales and are seeing continued solid sales momentum and positive trends supporting our efforts to move upmarket. [...]

We're proactively taking steps to accelerate business revenue growth. We have made many positive changes throughout the organization to improve both sales and service delivery. While these changes take time to gain traction we are encouraged by the positive impact we have experienced thus far in 2014.

--Jeff Gardner, Windstream CEO

This is a core strategy for Windstream nowadays. Management expects the consumer division to shrink over time as landline phone services fall out of favor, mitigated by demand for high-speed Internet services. But the business segment is different. From small business operations to giant enterprises, there's still a place for centrally managed phone systems with dependable, high-quality voice services.

With or without the REIT conversion, this is where Windstream is spending most of its research and marketing dollars. Why chase the fickle consumer when you can track down corporate accounts that will stay around for the long haul?

Consumer broadband

We implemented certain pricing actions during the second quarter which contributed to a sequential revenue growth of $4 million. Consumer broadband units were down by 17,000 due largely to seasonal weakness in the second quarter.

Importantly, broadband revenue was $121 million -- up slightly, driven by the price increases and continued growth in broadband speeds and vertical services.

--Tony Thomas, Windstream CFO

That being said, the consumer segment still matters. As business-focused as Windstream is these days, the company hasn't abandoned its consumer-level subscribers.

In the second quarter, Windstream's consumer broadband business fights a seasonal dip, and lost a few customers. But thanks to modest price increases and up-selling consumers to higher broadband speeds, revenues actually ticked up slightly.

The company isn't likely to keep raising prices every quarter, but look for Windstream to continue pushing add-on Internet features and higher broadband speeds to existing subscribers.

Top dividend stocks for the next decade
The smartest investors know that dividend stocks simply crush their non-dividend paying counterparts over the long term. That's beyond dispute. They also know that a well-constructed dividend portfolio creates wealth steadily, while still allowing you to sleep like a baby. Knowing how valuable such a portfolio might be, our top analysts put together a report on a group of high-yielding stocks that should be in any income investor's portfolio. To see our free report on these stocks, just click here.

The article 5 Things Windstream Holdings' Management Wants You to Know originally appeared on Fool.com.

Anders Bylund has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Why lululemon athletica Has Crashed 30% in 2014

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Source: lululemon athletica.

Retail investors dream of finding the next big thing in fashion, knowing shoppers can jump on new ideas and create flash-in-the-pan sensations that mushroom into huge opportunities nearly overnight. Being first into what has become a huge niche in athletic apparel put yoga-wear retailer lululemon athletica  into an enviable position among much larger peers, forcing companies such as Gap and Under Armour to play catch up in an effort to protect their own brands. Yet the other thing investors know about the retail industry is how fickle shoppers can be, and sudden adversity can knock even a promising company down for the count.

The story of Lululemon shows how an innovative company that successfully identifies a high-potential niche can turn it into a cash cow. Lululemon's ability to engage customers, yoga professionals, and the entire community was masterful for years, leading to a symbiotic relationship that raised awareness of yoga as a way of promoting fitness and healthy living. Yet after handling product-related problems badly, Lululemon has struggled to regain the confidence of its core shopping audience. Let's take a closer look at lululemon athletica to see whether there's hope for an eventual recovery.


Stats on lululemon athletica

2014 YTD Return

(29.9%)

Expected Fiscal 2015 Revenue Growth

12.8%

Expected Fiscal 2015 EPS Growth

(7.3%)

Expected 5-Year Growth Rate

14.6%

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

What crushed Lululemon this year
Coming into 2014, investors hoped Lululemon could put its controversial recall of a high-profile yoga-pant line behind it. After multiple missteps in handling the problem led to the resignation of former CEO Christine Day and landed founder Chip Wilson in hot water for blaming the problem on the body shapes of some of its customers, Lululemon sought to restore its name, with new CEO Laurent Potdevin working to refocus the company on creating innovative products again.

Despite those efforts, Lululemon's results have been mixed at best. When it announced holiday-quarter results in March, Lululemon outperformed low expectations among investors, but same-store sales actually dropped 2%. Moreover, Lululemon expected sluggish results during the first few months of 2014, despite expansion plans that Potdevin hopes will spur longer-term growth. By midyear, Lululemon had shown some signs of life, beating expectations with 13% year-over-year sales growth and a boost in guidance for the full fiscal year. Again, though, comparable results were weak, with a 5% drop in store-based comps pulling down strength in the e-commerce segment to produce overall flat total comparable sales for Lululemon. That has made share-price gains short-lived and left Lululemon shareholders wondering how much longer the bad times will last.


Source: lululemon athletica.

How can Lululemon turn things around for good?
In the long run, Lululemon needs to return to its roots in order to restore its reputation. Lululemon's partnerships with yoga studios, fitness centers, and other workout facilities have been an enormous source of wholesale business, but they've also helped build brand awareness that has led to greater direct sales from the shoppers who visit those facilities. With its brand ambassador program, Lululemon engages well-known practitioners of the discipline, encouraging their students and followers to purchase the company's products in support of their own fitness programs.

The other thing Lululemon is doing to spur greater business is to position its products as appropriate not just for working out but for wearing in everyday life. Initiatives like the new &go brand are designed to keep up with busy professionals while still harnessing the value of the Lululemon name. As long as the quality of its new products remains unquestioned, Lululemon can lay the foundation for the restoration of its reputation.

As the stock's 2014 performance shows, Lululemon will need time to turn things around. With so many people having once been captured by the appeal of the concept, though, Lululemon has the opportunity to regain its lost customers and its luster.

Apple Watch revealed: The real winner is inside
Apple recently revealed the product of its secret-development "dream team" -- Apple Watch. The secret is out, and some early viewers are claiming its everyday impact could trump the iPod, iPhone, and the iPad. In fact, ABI Research predicts 485 million of this type of device will be sold per year. But one small company makes Apple's gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early-in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and see where the real money is to be made, just click here!

The article Why lululemon athletica Has Crashed 30% in 2014 originally appeared on Fool.com.

Dan Caplinger has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Lululemon Athletica and Under Armour. The Motley Fool owns shares of Under Armour. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Is It Time to Buy FedEx Stock?

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On Monday, FedEx announced a new stock repurchase program covering 15 million shares. That represents slightly more than 5% of FedEx stock. This serves as a follow-up to an even larger buyback program that was initiated in late 2013 and concluded last quarter.

FedEx is on a roll. Is it time to buy the stock?


Clearly, FedEx's management thinks that this is a great time to buy FedEx stock. In the past year alone, FedEx has reduced its share count by more than 10%. Should individual investors be looking to load up on FedEx shares, too?

Valuation is still reasonable

FedEx stock has been on a tear for the past two years, after being stuck in a holding pattern for most of the past decade. As FedEx has started to make progress on its restructuring program -- first announced in late 2012 -- investors have become more optimistic about the company's long-term profit growth prospects.

FDX Chart

FedEx 10-Year Stock Chart. Data by YCharts.

Despite this ballooning share price, FedEx stock's valuation is still quite reasonable, because earnings growth is keeping pace. The company projects that EPS will reach $8.50-$9.00 in FY 15, which would mark a 26%-33% improvement over its FY 14 EPS of $6.75.

For Q1 of FY 15, FedEx reported earnings that easily beat most analysts' expectations. That's a good sign that the company could meet or exceed the high end of its EPS guidance range this year.

Furthermore, FedEx has additional profit growth drivers beyond FY 15, including the growth of its high-margin FedEx Ground business, and the replacement of older, fuel-guzzling planes with more efficient models. As a result of this projected profit growth, FedEx's forward earnings multiple has not risen nearly as much as its stock price.

FDX PE Ratio (Forward) Chart

FDX P/E Ratio (Forward). Data by YCharts.

FedEx stock currently trades for about 18 times projected FY 15 EPS, and 15 times projected FY 16 EPS. That's pretty similar to the broader market's earnings multiple.

Based on FedEx's recent earnings growth rate, these modest multiples make the stock look positively cheap. That said, FedEx's current earnings growth spurt is being helped by its restructuring, and the company doesn't have many big cost-cutting opportunities left. Still, even if earnings growth will slow, FedEx stock's valuation seems very reasonable.

Threats should be manageable

Strong earnings growth this year and next year would not be much comfort to investors if FedEx were to face a disruptive threat to its business soon thereafter. FedEx does face some noteworthy threats. For example, the USPS is becoming more aggressive on pricing for bulk shippers.

Amazon's "in-sourcing' of package deliveries is a potential threat to FedEx.

This could allow the USPS to gain share in e-commerce shipments, one of the biggest growth markets for FedEx. A second threat in that area comes from Amazon.com, which dominates the e-commerce market, and has started to "in-source" some of its shipments. If Amazon ultimately handles its own deliveries, FedEx would miss out on a significant growth opportunity.

These threats impact rival package delivery service UPS more than they do FedEx. FedEx is a relative newcomer in the ground delivery business, which UPS still dominates. UPS delivers 42% of all e-commerce shipments, with FedEx, the USPS, and smaller companies fighting for the rest.

Between the growth of the overall e-commerce market and its relatively small share today, e-commerce remains more of an opportunity than a threat for FedEx. Indeed, FedEx has posted very good results in the past year despite losing a significant amount of shipment volume from Amazon.

FedEx stock: Still a decent pick

At $160, FedEx stock is no longer the "no-brainer" that it was when it was trading for less than $100 last year. That said, FedEx shares remain at a reasonable valuation: 18 times expected FY 15 earnings. Moreover, the company's management appears confident that the company's turnaround is on track.

As a result, it's still not too late to buy FedEx stock. As the company gradually improves the efficiency of its operations and rides the global economic recovery from the Great Recession, there could be more upside for long-term FedEx investors.

You can't afford to miss this
"Made in China" -- an all too familiar phrase. But not for much longer: There's a radical new technology out there, one that's already being employed by the U.S. Air Force, BMW, and even Nike. Respected publications like The Economist have compared this disruptive invention to the steam engine and the printing press; Business Insider calls it "the next trillion dollar industry." Watch The Motley Fool's shocking video presentation to learn about the next great wave of technological innovation, one that will bring an end to "Made In China" for good. Click here!

The article Is It Time to Buy FedEx Stock? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Adam Levine-Weinberg has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Amazon.com, FedEx, and United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool owns shares of Amazon.com. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Johnny Rockets: Our Nostalgic Future Is at Drive-In Movies

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Johnny Rockets drive-in movie
Johnny Rockets
Forget the standard fast food drive-through. Johnny Rockets is going that one better and bringing its burgers and shakes to the drive-in -- the drive-in theater, that is.

No, the chain hasn't totally traded burgers and fries for movie screens and popcorn. But Johnny Rockets has announced a partnership with USA Drive-Ins, which is building upwards of 200 new drive-in theater locations by 2018, with many that will sport their own Johnny Rockets, according to a Bloomberg Businessweek report.

The "locations will present family-friendly films and embody a nostalgic, all-American experience," according to a Johnny Rockets press release.

"Drive-ins aren't just about the movie, they're about the whole experience," Johnny Rockets Chief Development Officer James Walker told Bloomberg Businessweek. "You're able to interact with each other more than you would in an enclosed theater." Plus, a drive-in movie can have a captive audience of between 1,200 to 2,000 people. That's a lot of people waiting to hear, "Do you want fries with that?"

The first drive-in theaters appeared in the 1930s. Their cultural high point was in 1958, according to the United Drive-In Theatre Owners Association, when there were 4,063 locations in operation. But then the craze began to decline, with 1,000 closures between 1978 and 1988 alone.

The reasons were varied, including owners who wanted to retire, the rising value of the land they sat on, competition from VCRs and multiplexes, and a growing difficulty in getting distributors to provide them with first-run releases. An added complication was the industry's move to digital technology. Replacing the equipment for a single screen ran tens of thousands of dollars. As of August 2014, there were just 393 drive-in locations with 656 screens.

But drive-ins still have nostalgia value and a retro vibe that is popular with many younger people. Also, there may be a business opportunity. The USA Drive-Ins website notes that while "traditional film viewership at enclosed theatres has fluctuated, drive-in attendance has remained steady."

Johnny Rockets isn't betting the farm on drive-ins. Among other things, the company plans a food-truck concept and a "pop-up theatre prototype with a combined mobile restaurant that allows owners to create a dinner and movie combination in a myriad of venues," as the company's press release explained.

Maybe if you stand in one place and wait long enough, the movie and dinner will drive up to you.

 

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5 Things Reynolds American's Management Wants You to Know

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Ten years into its run under the current business structure, Reynolds American is at a critical juncture in its corporate history. The company is in the process of acquiring Lorillard amid a changing industry landscape that could witness the rise of e-cigarettes. Nevertheless, management is confident that shareholders will receive even more value for their ownership over the next 10 years than they received over the past 10 years. Here are some of the things Reynolds American's CEO had to say during their latest conference call with analysts.

"We see the growth of the vapor category as a great opportunity for R.J. Reynolds Vapor Company, which is currently expanding its VUSE digital vapor cigarette nationally." -- CEO Susan Cameron 

Although Lorillard's blu eCigs brand captures a category-leading 41% market share, the e-cigarette brand will be sold off as part of Reynolds American's acquisition of the company. That leaves Reynolds American's VUSE e-cigarette as the company's entrant in the battle for control of the nascent market. Although it just began national distribution this summer, VUSE is already in 21,000 retail outlets. The brand's market share should grow significantly in the coming months; shareholders should keep an eye out for this number in quarterly reports to gauge the brand's popularity relative to blu and other established e-cigarette brands.


"[T]he company's cigarette volume was negatively affected by one less shipping day, as well as a reduction in wholesale inventory levels. Even so, it is clear that the underlying drivers of the industrywide decline in cigarette volume includes some traditional economic pressure points, as well as the growing demand for smoke-free alternative[s], including vapor products." -- Cameron 

It's no secret that cigarette volume is declining and will continue to decline. In the second quarter, Reynolds American's cigarette volume declined 6.8%, compared with just 4.4% for the industry. Even so, Reynolds American's cigarette market share declined just 0.1% thanks to share gains by Camel and Pall Mall, which account for more than 70% of the company's cigarette volume. Still, VUSE needs to capture a large market share to make up for the steepening decline of the combustible-cigarette market.

"Grizzly [brand snuff] has begun one of its biggest marketing campaigns yet, called Days of Roar, which gives brand enthusiasts a chance to win prizes by mixing it up and sharing outdoor stories and photos." -- Cameron

Amid declining cigarette volume, Reynolds American is pushing its snuff brands through increased marketing campaigns. Snuff accounts for 9% of the company's revenue and 13% of its operating income. Unlike cigarette revenue, annual snuff revenue is growing by mid- to high single digits. Moreover, Reynolds American has a commanding 34.5% market share through the first six months of the year, up from 33.7% in 2013. Continued success in this category could help offset pressure on the bottom line from falling cigarette volume.

"The quarter's achievements rounded out an excellent first half for RAI, and that allowed us to tighten our guidance for the full year. We now expect gross and adjusted EPS in the range of 5% to just over 8% compared with last year's adjusted results." -- Cameron

Despite declining cigarette volume and uncertainty in the e-cigarette market, management raised the lower end of its full-year earnings-per-share guidance from $3.30 to $3.35. If Reynolds American hits this low-end mark, it would represent 5% year-over-year earnings-per-share growth. At the high end of its estimate ($3.45) it would see 8.2% growth. That's about the same pace as the 7.4% jump in earnings-per-share growth in 2013. However, investors should keep an eye on revenue as well; eventually, the company may not be able to increase its profit margin as much as it has in the past. If that were to occur, Reynolds American's earnings growth could dwindle.

"We've accomplished a great deal over these past 10 years, but even more important, I'm confident that great things lie ahead." -- Cameron

Ten years ago, R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Holdings and Brown & Williamson Tobacco Corporation merged to form Reynolds American The stock has gained over 516% since then, including dividends -- crushing the S&P 500. The company has created billions in shareholder value and has the potential to do so for years to come.

RAI Total Return Price Chart

Reynolds American data by YCharts

Top dividend stocks for the next decade
The smartest investors know that dividend stocks simply crush their non-dividend-paying counterparts over the long term. That's beyond dispute. They also know that a well-constructed dividend portfolio creates wealth steadily, while still allowing you to sleep like a baby. Knowing how valuable such a portfolio might be, our top analysts put together a report on a group of high-yielding stocks that should be in any income investor's portfolio. To see our free report on these stocks, just click here.

The article 5 Things Reynolds American's Management Wants You to Know originally appeared on Fool.com.

Ted Cooper and The Motley Fool have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Market Wrap: Bad News All Over Sent U.S. Stocks Down Sharply

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Frankfurt Exchange, Frankfurt, Germany
Gerhard Weber/Getty ImagesTraders at the Frankfurt Exchange in Germany. A weak manufacturing report out of Europe's largest economy helped push stocks lower in the U.S. Wednesday.
By KEN SWEET

NEW YORK -- It was a rough start to October for financial markets Wednesday, with the Dow Jones industrial average dropping more than 200 points as investors reacted to a round of negative economic news in the U.S. and abroad.

At first stocks were driven lower by word that German manufacturing had slowed last month. The selling accelerated after a separate survey indicated U.S. manufacturing slowed as well.

"A lot of people thought this economic data was going to be robust, so when it was weak, everyone moved to reposition," said Tom di Galoma, head of rates and credit trading at ED&F Man Capital.

Investors were also selling stocks following news that the first case of Ebola had been diagnosed in the U.S. Investors dumped airline stocks and bought a handful of drug companies working on experimental Ebola treatments.

The blue chip Dow index (^DJI) lost 238.19 points, or 1.4 percent, to 16,804.71. The Standard & Poor's 500 index (^GPSC) lost 26.13 points, or 1.3 percent, to 1,946.16 and the Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) lost 71.30 points, or 1.6 percent, to 4,422.09.

The report that set off most of the selling in the U.S. was the Institute for Supply Management's monthly manufacturing survey, one of the more closely watched economic indicators that investors look for each month. The ISM index came in at 56.6, below the 58.5 economists expected.

In Germany, Markit reported that manufacturing contracted in September, the latest sign that Europe is being affected by the economic sanctions on Russia. It was the first slowdown in 15 months.

The report came a day before Naples, Italy hosts the European Central Bank's latest policy meeting. There will be great interest in what ECB President Mario Draghi will say about possible monetary stimulus from the central bank following the recent weak economic news.

In European markets, Germany's DAX finished 1 percent lower, France's CAC 40 lost 1.2 percent and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 ended down 1 percent.

"We're in a global economy these days, and U.S. companies get a lot of their revenue and earnings from outside the U.S.," said Matthew Rubin, director of investment strategy at Neuberger Berman. "Investors have valid concerns that the European slowdown could hit companies' bottom line."

Traders moved quickly into U.S. government bonds. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped to 2.39 percent from 2.49 percent late Tuesday, a big move. Gold prices rose $3.90, or 0.3 percent, to $1,215.50 an ounce.

Utility stocks, which investors favor during times of volatility because of their higher-than-average dividends, were among the few that rose Wednesday. The Dow Jones utility index, a collection of 15 utility companies, increased 0.4 percent.

Investors now look forward to Friday, when the U.S. government will release the monthly job figures. Economists are expecting that employers added 215,000 workers last month and no change in the unemployment rate, which stands at 6.1 percent.

Despite October's bad start, analysts believe the next three months should be good for investors.

In recent years, the stock market has risen sharply in the last three months of the year. The S&P 500 rose 10 percent in the fourth quarter last year and 11 percent in the same period in 2011. In 2012 the S&P 500 did fall in the fourth quarter, but only by 1 percent.

"I am not overly concerned about [Wednesday's sell-off]," Rubin said. "The reports were negative today, but most investors believe the U.S. economy is on solid footing and is still on track for a recovery. I still think it's a good time to be an investor in the market."

News that the first case of Ebola was diagnosed in the U.S. reverberated through several industries. Airlines were among the hardest hit as investors feared people would be discouraged from traveling. American Airlines (AAL) fell $1.09, or 3 percent, to $34.39 and Delta (DAL) fell $1.25, or 3.5 percent, to $34.90. Southwest Airlines (LUV) fell $1.22, or 3.6 percent, to $32.55.

Drugmakers developing potential vaccines or treatments for Ebola rose. Tekmira Pharmaceuticals (TKMR) jumped $4.11, or 17 percent, to $27.85 after the company said it may start clinical trials for an Ebola drug this year. NewLink Genetics (NLNK), another company looking into Ebola treatments, rose $1.53, or 7 percent, to $22.95.

In commodities, oil fell to its lowest price since April 2013 on concerns that a weakening global economy will lead to lower oil demand. Benchmark U.S. crude fell 43 cents to close at $90.73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils used by many U.S. refineries, fell 51 cents to close at $94.16 on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

In other energy futures trading on the NYMEX, wholesale gasoline rose 1.2 cents to close at $2.450 a gallon, heating oil rose 0.5 cent to close at $2.656 a gallon and natural gas fell 9.8 cents to close at $4.023 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Silver rose 20 cents to $17.26 an ounce. Copper rose three cents to $3.04 a pound.

What to Watch Thursday:
  • McCormick & Co. (MKC) releases quarterly financial results before U.S. markets open.
  • The Labor Department reports weekly jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 27 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.
  • The Commerce Department reports factory orders for August at 10 a.m.

 

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Cintas Corporation is Looking Sharp While Outgrowing Earnings Estimates

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This article originally appeared as part of ongoing coverage in our premium Motley Fool Stock Advisor service...we hope you enjoy this complimentary peek!

Source: Cintas.

Cintas  refuses to give props to macro factors as it toots its own horn following continued great results. But that's good! It's better to have a company that is leading the pack in an industry rather than merely keeping up with it.

Dressed for success
On Sept. 29, Cintas reported its fiscal first-quarter results. Organic revenue increased 7.2% to $1.1 billion in the period ending Aug. 31. Operating income soared 17.1% to $163.5 million, with earnings per share of $0.93 (including about $0.15 of one-time gains). Revenue hit analyst expectations, but adjusted EPS of $0.78 beat the $0.75 estimate.


In the earnings press release, CEO Scott D. Farmer credited "continued good execution" by Cintas' employees, whom he referred to as "partners." Farmer continued: "We have focused on selling good, profitable business over the past few years, as well as managing our cost structure and continuously improving the efficiency of our processes. This focus has resulted in improved margins and better customer retention."

Source: Cintas

Promoting the guidance
In the earnings release, Farmer noted that profit margins improved in each of Cintas' businesses, which include manufacturing uniforms and fire protection products, the result of better efficiency and more leverage of fixed costs spread out across a higher sales base. While he gave no credit to the economy by referring to "inconsistent employment figures" and "heightened global uncertainty," Farmer increased the earnings guidance due to the company's successful efforts.

Just two months ago, Cintas guided for fiscal 2015 to show revenue of between $4.425 billion and $4.525 billion, along with EPS between $3.06 and $3.15. Now the estimate is for slightly less revenue of between $4.4 billion and $4.475 billion but EPS was raised materially to between $3.20 and $3.29. Analysts had full-year EPS pegged at $3.09.


Look for guidance to continue to climb the corporate ladder
CFO Bill Gale might have let the cat out of the bag that results will be even better than the new guidance. Discussing the new outlook during the Q&A session of the quarterly conference call, he stated: "It could be a bit conservative on our part, but there has been ongoing inconsistency in the jobs reports. We still are seeing reluctance in the part of many of our customers to expand our operations, to add employees." Gale seemingly excluded any potential benefit from gains in headcounts. He said Cintas is growing mostly from new clients rather than higher orders from current clients, and also from "a better pricing environment."

Source: Cintas.

Better pricing is code for raising prices on its customers. It's an excellent sign, though Gale cautioned, "I don't want to create a belief that we just have really skyrocketed prices we haven't, but we certainly have been able to get more of a price increase than we have since the end of the recession."

Foolish takeaway
Cintas is gaining market share by landing new customers while also seeing some pricing power. If the company is doing this well in a sluggish industry the company could improve operations if the economy improves some more. A bet on Cintas is a bet on the job market, along with some downside risk protection based on its excellent execution. 

Top dividend stocks for the next decade
The smartest investors know that dividend stocks simply crush their non-dividend paying counterparts over the long term. That's beyond dispute. They also know that a well-constructed dividend portfolio creates wealth steadily, while still allowing you to sleep like a baby. Knowing how valuable such a portfolio might be, our top analysts put together a report on a group of high-yielding stocks that should be in any income investor's portfolio. To see our free report on these stocks, just click here.

The article Cintas Corporation is Looking Sharp While Outgrowing Earnings Estimates originally appeared on Fool.com.

Nickey Friedman has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Cintas. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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2 Things Target Corporation Dividend Investors Need to Know

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With a dividend yield of 3.3%, Target is putting its best foot forward. The business is deeply invested in giving back to its shareholders, but its cash position is starting to suffer. That's two sides of the same coin, and depending on what you're looking for in a dividend payer it could be good or bad news. The best dividends are the ones that put up solid growth and get paid out on a regular basis -- Target's got one of those nailed.

Sales have been the biggest problem for the company, as it tries to put last year's data breach behind it. So far, things haven't gotten back to business as usual. Heading into the all-important holiday season, Target is still looking a little shaky, and that's going to mean less cash to give back to investors. Here are the two keys that any dividend focused buyer need to know.

Target will prioritize dividends
If you're worried about getting that check in the mail, Target should help you sleep soundly at night. The company has been paying out a dividend like clockwork for almost 16 years. Over that time, Target has made it clear that paying out a dividend is high on its list of things to do. Even with sales fluctuations, the business has managed to hit its payout.


Last year, for instance, Target's revenue fell 1% with earnings per share getting slammed. Even so, Target has bumped up its dividend this year, paying out $0.52 per share next quarter, up from $0.43 per share last year. That rising dividend is a matter of pride for Target, and on the company's most recent conference call, it called out the fact that it had increased annual payouts every year since 1971.

For investors, that's good news. A rising payout, consistent payouts, and a company that's unlikely to stop paying all make for a good dividend player. The problem with Target is that it could start losing out on growth due to its zealous payouts. Cash is supposed to be returned to investors when the individuals can do better with it than the business. Target's flat sales, brand issues, and fumbling stock all point to a business that would be better off investing in itself.

Don't expect huge dividend growth
For all of the reasons above, it's likely that Target is going to have to take its foot off the accelerator a bit over the next few years. That's not to say that the dividend is going to stop being paid or stop growing, but the rate of that grow has to slow.

Last year, the company generated free cash flow of just $364 million, after removing $2.7 billion in proceeds from the one-off sale of its credit card accounts. It also paid out $1 billion in stock and spent another $1.46 billion on stock repurchases. Even if that $2.7 billion was recurring, that would be an untenable situation.

Dividend growth is going to have to slow a bit in order for the company to invest some cash back in its own brand and operations without draining the coffers. Obviously, the share repurchase plan is helping to stem the bleeding from future dividends, but Target is still having a hard time figuring out when enough is enough.

Eventually, it will figure that out. When it does, dividends are going to slow a bit, buybacks are going to take a little time off, and dividend investors are going to have to languish for a time. That's not the end of the world, but it's something that everyone who's investing in Target for its dividend needs to be aware of.

If Target can get its brand back on track and make something out of this year's holiday season, there may be rosier times ahead. For right now, though, Target investors might want to look elsewhere for a more sustainable situation.

Top dividend stocks for the next decade
The smartest investors know that dividend stocks simply crush their non-dividend paying counterparts over the long term. That's beyond dispute. They also know that a well-constructed dividend portfolio creates wealth steadily, while still allowing you to sleep like a baby. Knowing how valuable such a portfolio might be, our top analysts put together a report on a group of high-yielding stocks that should be in any income investor's portfolio. To see our free report on these stocks, just click here.

The article 2 Things Target Corporation Dividend Investors Need to Know originally appeared on Fool.com.

Andrew Marder has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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"Guardians of the Galaxy" Still Isn't as Profitable as "Iron Man," and 4 More Surprising Facts I Lea

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Iron Man and Guardians of the Galaxy are about neck-and-neck in terms of their overall earnings for Disney. Credit: Marvel Entertainment.

You know those headlines that proclaim that Guardians of the Galaxy is now out-earning Iron Man? Turns out they aren't quite right. By my math, the Golden Avenger is still slightly ahead:

Movie
Worldwide Gross
Production Budget
Marketing and Distribution
Est. Gross Profit
Profit Margin

Iron Man

$585.2 million

$140 million

$0*

$94.1 million

16.08%

Guardians of the Galaxy

$635.0 million

$170 million

$60 million

$87.5 million

13.78%


*Based on Marvel's distribution agreement with Paramount. Sources: Box Office Mojo, BoxOffice.com, and author's estimates.

Why even go through this exercise? To prove that there's still a fair amount of misunderstanding when it comes to Marvel's impact on Disney's Studio Entertainment business. Here are four more things you might not know.

1. The Avengers is 75 times more profitable than Captain America: The First Avenger!

When you add in $216 million from home video sales (source: The-Numbers.com), Marvel's The Avengers clears an estimated $621.3 million in gross profit versus just $8.2 million for Captain America: The First Avenger. Why the disparity? First Avenger was the last movie under Marvel's original distribution agreement with Viacom's Paramount Pictures. The deal allowed the studio to forgo marketing costs in exchange for an 8% to 10% cut of the gross and the lion's share of DVD, Blu-ray, and download sales. This agreement allowed Marvel to transfer a decent amount of risk over to Paramount, but accept less revenue from the film. Disney has since repurchased the rights.

2. The last five Marvel Studios movies account for over 90% of the profits earned since Iron Man.

Sound crazy? Here's why it isn't: Marvel Studios didn't control distribution for those first five films, and DVD, Blu-ray, and digital sales can be remarkably profitable. Look at The Avengers. By my math, over a third of the film's estimated gross profit traces to home video. Captain America: The Winter Soldier and Guardians of the Galaxy should enjoy similar success in this area, creating a nice windfall for the Studio Entertainment segment leading into next year's Avengers: Age of Ultron.

3. Guardians of the Galaxy has already earned four times John Carter's domestic haul.

Like any studio, Disney has had its share of big-budget busts. What we tend to forget is that big winners generally overshadow big losers. Take Guardians of the Galaxy. At $318.6 million domestically, Marvel's newest space epic has made four times as much from U.S. theaters as John Carter did in 2012. Want a more direct comparison? The Lone Ranger tanked last year, yet Disney's Studio Entertainment segment still earned $836 million in operating income -- a 54% improvement over calendar 2012 and one of the best totals we've seen in years. Franchise extender Iron Man 3 and franchise starter Frozen -- both of which earned over $1 billion worldwide -- kept a lid on the masked man's influence.

4. Only one out of the 10 Marvel Studios movies has failed to produce a box-office profit.

By my math, the lone loser from Marvel Studios is The Incredible Hulk. And that's only at the box office. Factor in merchandising and product placement, among other sweeteners, and it's possible that the green giant put some green in Marvel's coffers. Whatever the final tally, the point is that a 90% hit rate is remarkably rare in Hollywood.

Setting the pressure gauge to "Ultron"

All of which brings us to Marvel's next try, Avengers: Age of Ultron, which arrives in theaters on May 1, 2015. What can we expect? Here's the official synopsis:

Marvel Studios presents Avengers: Age of Ultron, the epic follow-up to the biggest superhero movie of all time. When Tony Stark tries to jump-start a dormant peacekeeping program, things go awry and Earth's Mightiest Heroes, including Iron Man, Captain America, Thor, The Incredible Hulk, Black Widow, and Hawkeye, are put to the ultimate test as the fate of the planet hangs in the balance. As the villainous Ultron emerges, it is up to the Avengers to stop him from enacting his terrible plans, and soon uneasy alliances and unexpected action pave the way for an epic and unique global adventure.

Avengers: Age of Ultron faces a high hurdle. Credit: Marvel Entertainment.

Last time, bringing that team together produced $1.5 billion at the box office and over $200 million in home video sales. Will we see those sorts of numbers again? Better? Consider the data here and then leave a comment below to let us know where you stand.

Your cable company is scared, but you can get rich
You know cable's going away. But do you know how to profit? There's $2.2 trillion out there to be had. Currently, cable grabs a big piece of it. That won't last. And when cable falters, three companies are poised to benefit. Click here for their names. Hint: They're not Netflix, Google, and Apple.

The article "Guardians of the Galaxy" Still Isn't as Profitable as "Iron Man," and 4 More Surprising Facts I Learned Analyzing Marvel Movies originally appeared on Fool.com.

Tim Beyers is a member of the  Motley Fool Rule Breakers  stock-picking team and the Motley Fool Supernova Odyssey I mission. He owned shares of Apple, Google (A and C class), Netflix, and Walt Disney at the time of publication. Check out Tim's Web home and portfolio holdings, or connect with him on Google+Tumblr, or Twitter, where he goes by @milehighfool. You can also get his insights delivered directly to your RSS reader.The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Apple, Google (A and C class), Netflix, and Walt Disney. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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The Death of Apple, Inc's "i" Branding

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Apple's "i" branding sure has had a good run. The naming convention started in 1997 with the original iMac, one of the key products that built the foundation to Apple's turnaround. Almost two decades later, the "i" has been one of the most enduring product branding strategies, but it seems as if Apple's "i" may be on its way out.

Ken Segall is the man who came up with the original iMac name, so he should know. In a recent blog post, he notes that neither of the two new products Apple unveiled earlier this month carried the iBranding, with the company instead opting for "Apple Pay "and "Apple Watch." Segall believes that the only explanation for this is that Apple is preparing to shift its branding strategy away from its iconic "i."

An Apple product by any other name would sell just as well
Over the years, many companies have piggybacked on Apple's iBranding, such as iHome, among many others. At times, that's presented some interesting obstacles for Apple as it launches new products. For example, Cisco Systems originally owned both the iPhone and iOS trademarks, but Steve Jobs commandeered both of them. Tim Cook isn't as brazen as Jobs, and is probably more averse to starting trademark disputes.


Everyone was expecting Apple's wearable to be called the "iWatch," but instead it's "Apple Watch." The company had officially trademarked "iWatch" in numerous countries around the world, fueling speculation that it would be named as such. Swiss watchmaker Swatch challenged the trademark, arguing it was "confusingly similar" to its own iSwatch trademark.

Likewise, if Apple ever does launch a TV set, it likely won't be called the "iTV," since iTV is a major TV network in the U.K. and similarly owns the trademark. The network's launch predated Apple by a large margin, founded in 1955 as Independent Television, so this isn't a case of an iPiggybacker. Besides, there's nothing wrong with "Apple TV."

Segall argues that Apple is probably shifting toward a new branding strategy of "Apple [product name]," which makes sense on a number of levels. Not only does it avoid any potential legal complications, but it strengthens the link to the Apple brand. It also resembles Google's typical product naming convention.

He even considers the possibility of renaming existing products, although I think that's more trouble than it's worth. "Apple Phone" and "Apple Pad" sound too generic, when the company already has "iPhone" and "iPad" locked down in the mind of the consumer.

Why it matters to the business
Branding is one of the most important aspects of marketing strategy, and marketing has long been key to Apple's overall success. The "i" space is getting awfully crowded nowadays, mostly with products from other companies. Considering this overabundance, a move toward "Apple [product name]" is a more sustainable branding strategy going forward. Now Apple just needs to get away from numbering iPhones.

Apple Watch revealed: The real winner is inside
Apple recently revealed the product of its secret-development "dream team" -- Apple Watch. The secret is out, and some early viewers are claiming its everyday impact could trump the iPod, iPhone, and the iPad. In fact, ABI Research predicts 485 million of this type of device will be sold per year. But one small company makes Apple's gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early, in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and see where the real money is to be made, just click here!

The article The Death of Apple, Inc's "i" Branding originally appeared on Fool.com.

Evan Niu, CFA, owns shares of Apple. The Motley Fool recommends Apple, Cisco Systems, Google (A shares), and Google (C shares). The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple, Google (A shares), and Google (C shares). Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Wall Street's Crazy Idea for Staples and Office Depot

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Last month Credit Suisse analyst Gary Balter suggested office supplies retailer Staples should merge with Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) because of increased online competition, sending shares of both companies soaring. He asks, "Why are they waiting?"

Office Depot isn't done digesting its own acquisition and now it may be gobbled up itself. Photo: Flickr user Mike Mozart.


It could just be the old saw, the burned hand learns best. Eighteen years ago Staples tried to do just that and was stopped cold by the Justice Department because of antitrust concerns. It's a testament to the futile nature of such second-guessing regulation because lawyers can't tell what the future holds.

By denying Staples the opportunity to buy up its rival back then, it ensured the industry would suffer mightily in the future because there was actually too much competition, more than the market could sustain. Substituting a regulator's judgment on what's best instead of allowing the market to decide is foolhardy.

It's not your daddy's office supply market anymore
But Balter notes that today there's a lot more online competition with rivals like Amazon.com stealing market share from the bricks and mortar stores, and he believes the FTC's approval of Office Depot's acquisition of OfficeMax -- the necessary outcome of having prevented Staples from winnowing the field before -- suggests it would also sign off on the two remaining office supplies giants joining together.

I'm not convinced regulators have caught up with modern times. They still tend to severely lag real-world events and it's hard to see how leaving just one major office supplies company would sit well with them.

The Justice Department sought to block AT&T from acquiring T-Mobile, even though the latter is ailing and needs the support of a major carrier, and there would still be sufficient competition to negate fears of price increases. It sought to stop American Airlines Group from merging with US Airways because it thought it would "eliminate competition." The antitrust division also blocked H&R Block from acquiring TaxACT, prevented the Nasdaq exchange from buying the NYSE, and inserted itself into Anheuser-Busch InBev's acquisition of Grupo Modelo.

The cigarette industry is facing similar cannibalization of its business like office supplies, and the merger of Lorillard and Reynolds-American is expected to face particularly harsh scrutiny by antitrust regulators, even though Altria remains a potent rival and the deal actually creates a fourth major cigarette player, Imperial Tobacco, through the shedding of assets.

Completely eliminating all major competition in the office supply market just won't pass regulatory muster.

It's not really a crazy notion
Yet Balter's got a point.

Revenues at Staples fell 2% last quarter to $5.2 billion while adjust per-share profits fell 25% year over year. Pro forma sales at Office Depot were also down by a like amount to $3.9 billion, but its adjusted net losses narrowed in the quarter to $0.02 per share from $0.03 in the year ago period.

Balter contends Staples buying Office Depot could save them $1.44 billion and more than double their combined operating profit by 2017, resulting in Staples stock more than doubling to $30 a share.

When the idea was first broached, shares of both companies jumped, with Staples rising 8% and Office Depot climbing 6%, but since then cooler heads have prevailed, no doubt understanding the difficulty of such a combination and their respective stocks have all but given up the gains previously made.

Photo: Flickr user Carl Malamud.

The online avenue, though, is where much of the future lies. Staples, which has the second largest web presence behind Amazon in terms of SKUs and now sells some 500,000 items online compared to the 100,000 a year ago, saw sales growth of 8% last quarter as it launched its Buy Online, Pick Up in Store initiative. It's also branched out beyond just your typical pens, paper clips, and reams of paper. Now it's selling stuff more akin to an MRO operation like W.W. Grainger or Fastenal.

Office Depot also saw increases in online sales domestically, though in international markets it has been down.

Go directly to the heart of the matter
The growth of the direct channel is leading to a decline in the physical one. Staples will be shutting as many as 225 stores in North America by the end of the year, or 12% of its total footprint, to save $500 million dollars. It closed just 42 stores in all of 2013. Office Depot anticipates closing at least 400 stores through 2016 as it integrates the two operations, or one-fifth of the 1,876 stores it had open at the end of June.

It's clear a merger ought to happen, as it would strengthen both businesses. It's not a situation like the union of Sears and Kmart, two failing businesses that came together to make one giant sickly company. When management failed to invest in the company, consumers had plenty of options to turn to.

A Staples/Office Depot merger would succeed because the market just can't support two office supplies stores. Bringing them together would stabilize them. It's hard to believe though that regulators would see that as a viable option.

Top dividend stocks for the next decade
The smartest investors know that dividend stocks simply crush their non-dividend paying counterparts over the long term. That's beyond dispute. They also know that a well-constructed dividend portfolio creates wealth steadily, while still allowing you to sleep like a baby. Knowing how valuable such a portfolio might be, our top analysts put together a report on a group of high-yielding stocks that should be in any income investor's portfolio. To see our free report on these stocks, just click here.

The article Wall Street's Crazy Idea for Staples and Office Depot originally appeared on Fool.com.

Rich Duprey has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Amazon.com. The Motley Fool owns shares of Amazon.com and Staples. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Why Ford Is Slipping While GM and Chrysler Shine

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Ford is losing sales and market share as it switches its truck factories over to producing the all-new 2015 F-150. The first of the new trucks should arrive at dealers by the end of the year, but sales may not fully recover until well into 2015. Source: Ford Motor Company.

Ford Motor Company  said on Wednesday that its U.S. sales fell 3% in September, as a planned reduction in sales to rental-car fleets offsets good results for the Fusion sedan and Ford's Lincoln luxury brand.


Ford's result was slightly worse than the 2.4% drop projected by analysts polled by Bloomberg. And it was far behind the 19% increases posted by Ford's old Detroit rivals, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler .

But it was broadly in line with expectations, and the result reinforces a message we've been hearing from Ford executives for months: 2014 is a bumpy year for the Blue Oval.

Ford's sales are lagging for two good reasons
Ford's U.S. sales gains have trailed those of key rivals for months, with Ford often posting declines in months -- like September -- when the overall market was solidly up.

But Ford executives point out that there are two big reasons for the Blue Oval's apparent lack of success. First, the company is deliberately reducing its sales to rental-car fleets, preferring to allocate tight production to more profitable retail sales. Ford's sales to rental-car companies were down 40% in September compared to a year ago.

That reduction hit some models harder than others: Overall sales of Ford's compact Focus were down 8% in September, but U.S. sales chief John Felice noted that retail sales of the Focus were up an impressive 17%. Likewise, the Escape SUV was down 3.9% overall, but up 8% at retail.

Second, Ford is working through a complicated changeover to its all-new 2015 F-150 pickup. One of the two factories that makes the F-150 was closed at the end of August to begin its changeover; with supplies constrained, Ford has reduced its incentives, which has served as a brake on sales.

The F-Series pickups are Ford's best-sellers in the U.S., so any reduction in sales has an outsize impact on Ford's overall totals -- and on its market share. Sales of the F-Series were down about 1% in September, but rivals were able to make huge gains: Chrysler's Ram pickup line posted a 30% sales increase, while GM's Chevy Silverado was up a massive 54% thanks to aggressive promotion by GM at the dealer level.

But the Fusion and Lincoln MKC are doing well
Meanwhile, Ford is having big success with another of its strong sellers, the midsize Fusion sedan. Overall sales were up almost 9%, and retail sales grew by 11% year over year.

That's a stronger performance than you might think. Midsize sedans -- as well as smaller cars -- have been a challenging segment recently, as buyer preferences have shifted toward small and midsize sport-utility vehicles -- and as Honda has put a lot of promotional muscle behind its Accord sedan. Sales of GM's Chevy Malibu were up just 4.8% last month, while sales of GM's midsize crossovers were collectively up 31% -- and while Chrysler's new 200 sedan posted a 15% increase, its Jeep SUV brand was up 47%.

The all-new Lincoln MKC is turning into a much-needed hit for Ford's luxury brand. Source: Ford Motor Company.

Ford's efforts to revive its Lincoln luxury brand are also showing some signs of success. Lincoln's retail sales rose 21% in September, as its newest entry -- the compact MKC sport-utility -- gained traction. Felice said on Wednesday that the MKC's "days to turn," a measure of how long vehicles spend on dealer lots waiting to be sold, was just 15 days. That's very short, suggesting that Lincoln dealers are selling MKCs almost as quickly as they can get them.

The upshot: Ford is holding its ground through a complicated transition
We have known since last December that 2014 would be a bumpy year for Ford. The changeover of its pickup factories is unusually complicated, because of the vastly different tooling and procedures needed to build the all-new aluminum-bodied truck.

Meanwhile, other new models are just arriving. All-new 2015 Mustangs are just now beginning to arrive at dealers -- Felice said that the first retail sale happened at the end of September -- while supplies of the outgoing 2014 model are nearly exhausted. That will leave Mustang sales looking thin while dealers build up their inventories over the next couple of months.

The same thing will be starting to happen shortly with the F-150, but on a much larger scale. All-new 2015 F-150s should start arriving at dealers by the end of the year, but they'll be sold alongside 2014s for a few months as Ford ramps up inventory.

Ford is doing well, all things considered. But the company's U.S. sales may continue to lag the market until well into 2015, as it works through the transition to its new pickups.

Meanwhile, don't be surprised if GM and Chrysler continue to make hay at the Blue Oval's expense.

Ford's dividend is solid. Here are more top dividend stocks for the next decade.
The smartest investors know that dividend stocks simply crush their non-dividend-paying counterparts over the long term. That's beyond dispute. They also know that a well-constructed dividend portfolio creates wealth steadily, while still allowing you to sleep like a baby. Knowing how valuable such a portfolio might be, our top analysts put together a report on a group of high-yielding stocks that should be in any income investor's portfolio. To see our free report on these stocks, just click here.

The article Why Ford Is Slipping While GM and Chrysler Shine originally appeared on Fool.com.

John Rosevear owns shares of Ford and General Motors. The Motley Fool recommends Ford and General Motors and owns shares of Ford. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Why Microsoft Should Offer Windows 10 for Free

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Microsoft just announced that it will skip over Windows 9 and jump straight to Windows 10. The new OS, which was recently unveiled in San Francisco, will replace the Metro UI with "Live Tiles" which will integrate into a new Start Menu. The new OS will share a similar code base across PCs, tablets, and smartphones, helping Microsoft take a big step toward realizing its vision of "One Windows" when it arrives in fall 2015.

Source: Wikimedia Commons.


But here's the twist: Windows 10 might be a free upgrade for Windows 8 users when it launches, according to Indonesian news site Detik.com. Before the Windows 10 announcement, the site published a statement from Microsoft Indonesia President Andreas Diantoro, who stated that Windows 8.1 will "update automatically" to the company's latest OS. This partially confirms previous rumors hinting that Microsoft would launch Windows 10 as a free update for Windows XP and Windows 8 users. Nothing has been said about Windows Vista or Windows 7 users yet, although new rumors suggest that Microsoft could charge $30 for a Windows 7-to-Windows 10 upgrade.

If Microsoft gives away Windows 10, it would represent a radical departure from its traditional business of selling operating systems, supporting them, and then replacing them with brand-new versions every few years. Let's look at why that could be a brilliant long-term move.

One system to rule them all
According to Net Market Share, the Windows ecosystem is severely fragmented. Fifty-one percent of PC users still use Windows 7, 24% use Windows XP, 3% use Windows Vista, and about 13% use Windows 8 and 8.1.

The reason so many users stick with Windows XP and Windows 7 is the lingering notion that the two operating systems are simply "good enough" for everyday use and compatible with most third-party software. Microsoft exacerbated the problem with the polarizing Metro UI for Windows 8, which alienated longtime Windows users while falling short of being a tablet-based OS.

To wean users off older versions of Windows, Microsoft discontinued support for Windows XP in April and will stop selling copies of Windows 7 to PC manufacturers on Oct. 31 However, progress has been painfully slow, and some countries, like China, have protested the forced upgrade from Windows XP.

If these users all refuse to upgrade their systems, Microsoft's dream of a single Windows OS will never come true. However, offering Windows 10 as a free or cheap upgrade to XP and Windows 8 users could give the new OS a 37% share of the PC market. Extending that offer to Windows 7 and Vista users could potentially unite 91% of the PC market under a single OS. Computerworld estimates that free upgrades from 8.1 to 10 could push half the installed base of PC users to the latest OS by the end of 2015.

With that unified foundation in place, Microsoft could phase out RT and increase support for x86-based phones -- like Asus' ZenPhone and Lenovo's K900 -- so it can eventually replace the ARM Holdings-based Windows Phone with a scaled-down version of Windows 10.

A one-time offer... with strings attached
Microsoft has strongly hinted that it doesn't mind offering Windows for free.

In April, the company eliminated its license fee for phones and tablets with screens under 9 inches -- demonstrating that it was willing to sacrifice revenue to gain market share against Apple and Android devices. In May, it launched Windows 8.1 with Bing, a cheaper version of Windows that set Bing as the default search engine in Internet Explorer. Microsoft only offered this version to select hardware manufacturers to develop low-cost laptops to counter the rise of Google's Chromebooks.

However, that doesn't mean Microsoft plans to convert Windows into a completely free OS like Android. Windows licenses still generate lots of money -- last year, Microsoft reported $16.86 billion in Windows revenue, which accounted for nearly a fifth of the company's top line.

Therefore, offering Windows 10 as a free or cheap upgrade will probably be a one-time offer that could lead into a subscription-based version of Windows. If Microsoft turns Windows into a subscription-based service, it won't have to worry about users who refuse to upgrade, the segment's revenue growth will be easier to predict based on subscriber numbers, and it will have a strong platform to promote key services such as OneDrive, Office 365, and Bing/MSN.

A Foolish final thought
If this is Microsoft's true plan -- to overwrite all its previous systems with a free OS and then eventually turn it into a subscription-based one -- it could finally help the company break its cycle of endless upgrades and diminishing returns.

Google will still definitely have the advantage in pricing, since both Android and Chrome OS are free, but at least Microsoft will be able to fight back from a unified front backed by most of the world's PC market.

Apple Watch revealed: The real winner is inside
Apple recently revealed the product of its secret-development "dream team" -- the Apple Watch. The secret is out, and some early viewers are claiming that its everyday impact could trump the iPod, iPhone, and the iPad. In fact, ABI Research predicts that 485 million of this type of device will be sold per year. But one small company makes Apple's gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and see where the real money is to be made, just click here!

 

The article Why Microsoft Should Offer Windows 10 for Free originally appeared on Fool.com.

Leo Sun has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Google (A and C shares) and owns shares of Google (A and C shares), and Microsoft. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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3 Reasons 3M Co. Stock Could Fall

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Source: Wikipedia

The multinational company 3M  has been on a market-beating winning streak in recent years, and there are perfectly valid reasons to believe this trend can continue. I highlighted a few reasons in a recent article, and other Fools have made a convincing case for its long-term prospects as well.

Nonetheless, it's important to evaluate every angle - to flip a bull thesis on its head and fully understand the risks involved. With than in mind, I have some concerns about 3M's operations and the price of its shares.

Here's why I think this stock could be due for a pullback.

Manufacturers like 3M look pricey


My first argument deals with the company's valuation, which has grown out of step with earnings. From 2011 to 2014, 3M's price-to-earnings, or P/E, ratio -- what investors are willing to pay for a dollar's worth of earnings -- ballooned from 13.7 to 20.9. That equates to a 54% increase, while 3M's earnings per share grew only 19% during that time.

Expectations, it seems, have outstretched reality in this case. 3M remains a slow-and-steady company that is averaging 10-year revenue and earnings growth of 5.4% and 6.8%, respectively. Yet its stock commands a price-to-earnings growth, or PEG, ratio of 2.4 -- well beyond the preferred investing yardstick of 1. At the same time, 3M is trading well outside of its historical levels: Investors are paying a 24% premium versus its five-year average PE.

As I watch the market cross 700 trading days since the last correction -- the fourth-longest stretch since 1929 -- I'm hesitant to dabble in expensive cyclical stocks like this one.

The product pipeline looks drier than usual

Before I dive into my next argument, let me make one thing clear: I'm all for investing with a long-term time horizon. That is, after all, the definition of Foolish investing. So, for an investor focused on a very distant future -- say 10 or 20 years -- 3M's valuation might matter less if you believe in the company's prospects. Still, I wouldn't classify 3M as "cheap" at today's levels.

This leads me to another point about time horizon. I realize companies like 3M need to make investments today that will pay off for years to come. Research and development, for example, is a current outlay with far-reaching returns.

With that in mind, I'll acknowledge I look favorably upon spending in R&D. What concerns me, however, is that 3M is not optimizing its spending in this arena. For example, 3M's management team frequently points to a metric it refers to as "New Product Vitality Index," or NPVI, to show the effectiveness of its R&D investments. NVPI tracks the portion of the company's revenue that originates from products that are less than 5 years old. It's what keeps the company "young," as my colleague Asit Sharma puts it.

NVPI is a nifty little tool that shows how 3M continually reinvents its product portfolio, and for a while it seemed to be constantly rising. This metric jumped from 25% to 33% between 2008 and 2011.

In recent years, however, 3M's product pipeline seems less prolific. In 2012, management set a goal to have 40% of its annual revenue from new products by 2015, but it's now clear that hurdle was set too high. Management soon moved the goal line to 2017, but even that target has been revised. As of 2013, while 3M's NPVI continued to hover around 33%, management ratcheted down the stated 2017 target to 37% instead of 40%.

While 3M hasn't really discussed this shifting benchmark in recent quarters, it seems the company is getting less juice for the squeeze from its R&D dollars. As 3M looks to ramp up R&D spending in the years to come -- from roughly 5.5% to 6% of sales -- this is a troubling trend for potential investors.

A buyback that is two years too late

My final point is similar to the previous in that it deals with how 3M is allocating (or misallocating) its money.

3M announced last year it would undertake a massive share buyback plan that would last through 2017. It was the largest repurchase plan announced by a U.S. company in 2013, and it measured between an estimated $17 billion and $22 billion in scope. Here's how 3M's predicted gross stock repurchases could ultimately look relative to the recent past:

Source: 3M's presentation at Citi 2014 Industrials Conference.

Buybacks can often be a boon for shareholders. They offer a tax-efficient way for existing investors to boost their stake in the company. From my perspective, however, 3M is biting off more than it can chew. Both the size of the buyback itself and the current valuation of the stock should give shareholders the jitters.

As described in Will Thorndike's book, The Outsiders: Eight Unconventional CEOs and Their Radically Rational Blueprint for Success, top-notch executives prefer to allocate capital to share buybacks over short time frames when the stock is desperately cheap.

But 3M's initiative fails to follow that line of thinking. The stock hardly looks cheap and management is committing upward of $22 billion to repurchase a stodgy blue-chip stock that is fetching a P/E multiple 10% higher than the S&P 500. Perhaps shareholders could put that cash to better use in the form of dividend.

The takeaway for investors

Buyers at 3M's current price are paying up for a stock whose growth prospects are not all that impressive. Yet management itself seems to be jumping on the bandwagon.

I'll admit that 3M's reputation precedes it, and thus it wields pricing power like few other manufacturing companies in America. But I need to see more high-impact products take root before I load up on this stock.

Here's how to find the "Dividend Aristocrats" of the future

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The article 3 Reasons 3M Co. Stock Could Fall originally appeared on Fool.com.

Isaac Pino, CPA has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends 3M. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Why 100 Billion Plastic Bags Could Vanish From Stores Across the United States

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The first plastic bag was introduced in 1957. And anyone old enough will surely remember how Dustin Hoffman was tipped in to the future of "plastics" in 1967's The Graduate. What an opportunity! Even for simple products like bags. For example, by 1996, plastic bags had gained an 80% share of the grocery bag market. Some estimate that to be as many as 100 billion (yes billion with a B) bags a year. If California is any indication, however, that tides could be switching back in favor of paper.

Before there was plastic
It's hard to imagine a world without plastic. The substance is ubiquitous today, largely because of the many benefits it offers, including low cost and the ease with which it can be used. However, before there was plastic, wood products were the main option for making many things. And plastic bags are probably one of the best examples of the impact "plastics" has had on the world. Imagine the chagrin of paper bag makers as their share of the grocery bag market shrank from 100% to 20%.

However, plastic bags have gotten a bad name since their introduction in the middle of the last century. They have been blamed for clogging landfills, strangling wildlife, and collecting in vast quantities in the world's oceans. All of this because they don't biodegrade like, well, paper. Of course plastic organization dispute many of these claims, but that hasn't helped much with the image problem.

(Source: Paul Pajo, via Wikimedia Commons)


Which is one of the reasons why California looks set to ban plastic bags. There's wiggle room in there, of course, since plastic bags are superior in some ways that will ensure they remain in the mix. But the end result will clearly be more paper bags in Cali. And that could set the stage for a resurgent paper bag industry.

Ready for growth?
The paper grocery bag industry had roughly $1 billion in sales in 2011, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2011 Annual Survey of Manufactures. If California's plastic bag ban were to spread across the country, something that is slowly happening town by town (my own town has such a ban), paper could quickly become a growth business again. How big an impact would that be?

If paper bags gained just 20% more market share in the grocery bag sector, still well below the 50% level since reusable cloth bags are clearly a contender for market share, it would double the industry's sales. And if the option is paper or paper, that really isn't as far fetched as it might seem.

International Paper could see demand for its kraft papers (the brown paper used to make grocery bags) pick up — a lot. That said, a big sales boost from a low base won't likely move the needle of a $20 billion market cap company that posted sales of nearly $30 billion last year. But it could be a harbinger of things to come for timber companies.

Timberland owners like Plum Creek Timber and Weyerhaeuser sell trees for use in everything from paper manufacturing to home building. Both companies control nearly 7 million acres of timberland apiece in North America. Paper bags alone won't change their businesses, but it would provide steady demand that could increasingly offset the often volatile swings of the construction industry.

PCL Chart

PCL data by YCharts

And the grocery bag sector isn't the only one that's reexamining wood-based products. For example, wood pellets, more commonly referred to as biomass, are also making a comeback. In 2013, U.S. exports of wood pellets doubled on strong demand from European power companies looking to meet environmental mandates. Like grocery bags, increasing demand for wood pellets in the energy industry could provide a solid base of business for timberland owners.

Trees, the ultimate renewable product?
So the real takeaway from California's plastic bag ban isn't that paper bag makers are set to return triumphant to the grocery isle, though that may be true. The real lesson is that wood-based products are seeing a resurgence because of the renewable nature of trees. And that is a trend worth watching, particularly if you own timberland companies like Plumb Creek or Weyerhaeuser.

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The article Why 100 Billion Plastic Bags Could Vanish From Stores Across the United States originally appeared on Fool.com.

Reuben Brewer has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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