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3 Reasons Lowe's Companies Inc.'s Stock Could Rise

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Whether you're talking sales, net income, or everything in between, on just about all things Lowe's Companies continues to hit new record highs -- including its stock price. Is it time to finally take profits and exit Lowe's while the getting is good? Maybe that isn't a good idea. Here are three reasons Lowe's may still have of plenty more upside to go.

Source: Lowe's.

Reason 1: Underpromise and overdeliver
Lowe's originally guided for the fiscal year ending January 2015 to show a sales rise of 5% and for same-store sales to rise 4.5%. With the last quarter's report, the company revised its guidance. Sales are now expected to rise by 4.5%, along with same-store sales growth of 3.5%. More importantly, the company kept the diluted per share outlook at $2.63 because of stock buybacks and better margins.

Nobody likes to see softer revenue outlook, but in terms of stock ownership and a historically conservative Lowe's, we could see a situation where the company is simply setting itself up for an underpromise-and-overdeliver situation. Any even slight upside in sales delivery should translate to an even bigger bottom-line improvement and surprise.


The wild card is Lowe's newer ProServices program, which is focused on business customers. For 12 quarters in a row, it has outpaced the rest of its business. CFO Bob Hull stated in the last conference call that there is still "a lot of focus" in ProServices and that "we expect continued traction and momentum in the second half of the year." The company has been overall positively surprised by this segment of its business, so more surprises may be in store later this year.


Source:  Lowe's.

Reason 2: An improving housing market
It should be obvious: The company known as "The Home Improvement Store" gets a boost when there is more homeownership, and thus potentially more homes in need of improving. In the last call, CEO Robert Niblock stated, "As we look at the backdrop for the second half of 2014, economic forecasts suggest continued strength in the home-improvement market as employment, income, and consumer spending levels continue to improve."

Niblock noted that the company is seeing "a more positive and sustainable trend" in terms of existing-home sales along with a rise in big-ticket projects. The key to continued positive trends in housing is twofold. First, it will of course directly help sales. Second, it will probably deliver confidence to investors in Lowe's for the near, medium, and/or long term. Higher confidence tends to breed higher trading multiples. In other words, good macro housing data could lead to a higher P/E ratio.


Source:  Lowe's.

Reason 3: Cashola
Lowe's has been raising its dividend annually for about the past decade. Nothing says confidence louder than returning larger and larger piles of cash back to shareholders. As of last quarter, Lowe's had $4.3 billion left in its stock buyback authorization after buying back $1.1 billion for that single quarter alone. Sure, $4.3 billion might not seem like much on a market cap of $53 billion, but it is 8%, which is a rather decent chunk.

Eight percent would act as an 8% boost to earnings per share. For example $2.63 EPS would be boosted to $2.84. Another aspect that many people overlook with aggressive buybacks is that they make dividend payouts (and raises) much cheaper and more likely. With 8% fewer shares outstanding, Lowe's could raise its dividend by 8% and it wouldn't cost it a penny more than it paid before the buybacks. Higher dividends are not only great to get the money in your pocket, but higher dividend yields also tend to affect stock prices, and a higher yield is often corrected with a higher stock price.

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The article 3 Reasons Lowe's Companies Inc.'s Stock Could Rise originally appeared on Fool.com.

Nickey Friedman has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Apple and Bank of America. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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You Can Make Big Money from Those Annoying Telemarketers

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AT&T (T) became the most recent big company to settle a class action lawsuit filed by consumers alleging violations of a little-known federal law that can turn annoyance into cash. AT&T agreed to pay $45 million to resolve a case in which it was accused of making unauthorized automated calls.

Who hasn't gotten an annoying robocall, sales pitch or text spam? They come at inconvenient times, pitch you something you don't want and just plain waste your time.

Regardless of whether it was a telemarketer, a bank or bill collector, there's a chance that what you found annoying could also make you money.

"Every call or text made without your permission is worth a minimum of $500, and if it's intentional, which 99 percent are, each one is worth $1,500," said attorney Billy Howard of the Morgan & Morgan law firm. "These unwanted texts are one of the biggest invasions of our privacy. ... The senator who wrote the Telephone Consumer Protection Act called them the "scourge of modern civilization."

Maybe Money in Your Pocket

"Don't think 'annoying ring,'" he said. "Think 'ka-ching, ka-ching.'"

When Congress passed the Telephone Consumer Protection Act, it put a big part of the enforcement role in the hands of consumers. The idea was that if telemarketers crossed the lines (there are a lot of rules they have to play by, including when, how, and by whom calls can be placed) they would be penalized $500 to $1,500 for every time they did -- and those fines were to be paid to the affected consumers. But the customers have to speak up.

That 1991 law -- and consumers -- got a big boost last year with provisions that further restrict companies about when they can call you. Even companies that you've done business with before are not allowed to solicit you unless you've explicitly provided consent. Some typical violations:
  • You get calls for someone else who might have had your number previously.
  • You are accused of owing money that you don't.
  • You've told the business to stop calling, but it won't.
  • Calls before 8 a.m. or after 9 p.m. local time
  • Calls to consumers who are on the Do Not Call Registry and didn't give permission to be solicited. (The registry does not limit calls by political organizations, charities or phone surveyors.)
The main way to enforce the violations is to be on the Do Not Call list and file complaints with the Federal Trade Commission, and to make money through lawsuits. That potential has given way to a cottage industry of law firms that aggressively file these types of class action lawsuits.

Banks Have Paid Out Millions

This summer, Capital One (COF) settled what was believed to be the largest ever TCPA class action lawsuit, agreeing to pay more than $75 million for allegedly calling customers' cell phones using an autodialer. The TCP Act frowns on auto-dialed calls that don't involve humans. Bank of America (BAC) paid out $32 million last year to settle a half dozen TCPA lawsuits. Other lawsuits have been aimed at professional sports teams, including the Los Angeles Clippers and Buffalo Bills, and businesses of all sorts that made allegedly unauthorized calls or texts.

The Morgan & Morgan law firm has a helpful graphic that explains what indiscretions make a call or text eligible for TCPA litigation.

If you get a questionable call or text, it's not hard to search the web to see if others have gotten it, too. If a lot of people have, chances are a lawsuit has been started and you can climb aboard.

Another option is a cellphone app called PrivacyStar, which helps users flag and block sketchy calls and texts. It also simplifies filing complaints.

"You'd be blown away to know how often consumers get robocalls on their cell phone after 9 p.m. even though they're on the Do Not Call list -- all of these actions are illegal under the TCPA," said Jeff Stalnaker, CEO of PrivacyStar. "Our users alone file over 50,000 complaints with the FTC each month related to Do Not Call, FDCPA (Fair Debt Collection Practices Act) and TCPA potential violations. Around 6,000 of those are for text spam. Unfortunately, the amount of illegal calls is on the rise, and it seems that the majority of Americans are unaware of the rights they have to defend themselves."

 

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No Joke: I Invested In an Improv Comedy Theater

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www.justthefunny.com
Nearly three years ago, I decided to give improvisational comedy classes a shot. A year later I was not only a graduate of the five levels taught at Just the Funny in Miami but also a member of the performing cast and one of the owners.

Yes, one of its owners. It's been an interesting ride. A great improv scene begins in the middle of the action, but I'll betray that tenet to provide a little color first.

Laughing Matter

One of the perks -- or burdens -- of financial reporting is that you sometimes attract the attention of news broadcasters. I've been on CNBC (CMCSA) more than a half-dozen times, and I've also had a few stints on Fox Business (FOX), PBS, CNBC Asia and CNN en Espanol.

I always left the sets feeling as if I could have done a better job, so I explored my options. I narrowed down my choices to Toastmasters -- the educational organization that specializes in improving public speaking -- and improv.

I had long been a big fan of improvisational comedy, whereby comedic actors create scenes based on audience suggestions. I made it a point to check out the now sadly defunct Comedy Warehouse shows at Disney's (DIS) Pleasure Island whenever I was in Orlando. I had also made it out to a couple of shows at Just the Funny closer to home in Miami. I wasn't sure what I would get out of the seven-week introductory course, but like most of my classmates, I became hooked. Most of us wound up sticking together through 35 Monday nights in 2012 to complete all five class levels. Along the way, I successfully auditioned to join the cast.

Yes, and ...

By the end of 2012 the theater wasn't on very firm financial footing. The two owners -- one a founding troupe member and the other who had joined shortly after its inception -- decided to open up ownership opportunities. They made a financial presentation before nearly a dozen of its most active members, offering to sell half of the company.

The price was fair and the opportunity was juicy, but just three of us stepped up to invest. When the legal eagles finalized all of the documents, I had a 22.5 percent stake in the place that had become like a second home over the year prior.

As in a good improv scene, we new owners were dropped right into the action. The theater had just $976 in the bank and our monthly $3,200 rent payment was due in a few days. The money that we had just invested had gone to the two original owners, so we had to scramble to make sure that we had enough improv students and well-attended weekend shows to bring in the money we'd need to stay afloat.

We opened up the management ranks, assigning owners and some active cast members to nine leadership positions. As VP of finance, I was tasked with keeping the books and paying the bills, but everyone was encouraged to pitch in where and when they could.

It worked. A couple of favorable tailwinds materialized in 2013. "Whose Line Is It Anyway?" returned to the airwaves, giving mainstream TV-viewing audiences a fresh taste of improv that resulted in a spike in our student registrations. Coconut Grove's Miami Improv -- an iconic stand-up venue -- shut down in November, sending comedy-starved patrons to our shows for a different spin on comedic entertainment.

The Show Must Go On

Our pre-tax operating profit in 2013 was nearly as much as the entire company had been valued at a year earlier. Having a larger ownership group helped us tackle more tasks as we pursued incremental outlets for monetization and promotional activity. Unfortunately, it wasn't always harmonious. The two original owners were clashing all along the way, and one of the three subsequent owners -- the one with the smallest financial stake but tasked with the most laborious VP of operations role -- had had enough.

It was challenging as a friend, improviser and business owner.

Instead of toasting to our success in early 2014, we were busy cashing out two owners. There was drama. There was uncertainty. It would have been programming gold as a reality television show (remind me to pitch studios or documentary filmmakers next time), but it was challenging as a friend, improviser and business owner.

Just the Funny is strong again. We expanded our management team, and ownership meetings are more productive. Show attendance has been solid, even during the seasonally sleepy summer months. Our culture has improved to the point where we have to split rehearsals into different rooms as a result of our growing active cast. We had the largest summer class of improv students in our history. We're bringing back the Miami Improv Festival in three months, an annual event that had been discontinued for years. We're dreaming again, aiming even higher for 2015.

Running an improv theater is no joke, but for now this side business that started as an accidental hobby for many of us is allowing us to get the last laugh.

Motley Fool contributor Rick Munarriz owns shares of Walt Disney, and he naturally also owns a piece of Just The Funny. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Walt Disney. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

 

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My Rich Grandpa's Money Worries Turned Me Into an Investor

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Every one of us has had "aha! moments." Epiphanies. Days when we reach a crossroads and realize that we have to make some changes. For the next two months, we're sharing moments like those in our Life Stage Lessons series: Real stories straight from the financial lives of our DailyFinance contributors about times when they realized they were due for a serious course correction. So read on, learn from our mistakes, and get inspired to improve your relationship with your money.

I have my late grandfather to thank for inspiring me to learn about investing. He was raised in a family that literally couldn't afford windows on the exterior walls of their house, yet he built a company that sold in the early 1990s for a seven-figure sum.

I wish I'd known him as a younger man. Being able to work alongside him, witness his decision-making skills, and marvel at his ability to react to business changes would have been a real treat.

But that's not how life works. The person I got to know was not a hard-driving entrepreneur, but a gentle, sweet and loving old man. He was an incredible grandparent who was generous with his time and love, but I also remember that he was constantly worried about money. What's perhaps more important is that the worries got more severe as he aged.

Living the Good Life

Like many small-business owners, grandpa knew how to create wealth, but he didn't know how to manage a sum for the long term. Spending was never an issue during his working life, because his business, in effect, bailed him out. I remember learning of him buying a house and a luxurious sports car for cash almost at the same time during the 1980s, a feat most people could only dream about. But as years went by, the high-end sports cars gradually gave way to high-end sedans, and ultimately to mid-tier sedans.

His reductions in spending weren't because he ran out of money. My grandfather was relatively frugal. He lived below his means, and still had plenty of money when he passed away. He left enough assets to pay for my grandmother's continual nursing care for two decades now -- and for the foreseeable future.

Still, seeing his situation play out was a real eye-opener for me as a teenager: Why would someone as successful as grandpa ever need to worry about money? I spent a fair amount of time thinking about it as a young man, but it's clear to me now that the answer was his lack of real knowledge about how to grow capital, and how the financial markets work.

Like many members of their generation, my grandparents stuffed pretty much all of their savings in a bank account and considered themselves investment geniuses when they bought a bunch of Certificates of Deposit. In the 1990s, that strategy worked out OK since interest rates were in double digits. But between decades of declining rates and dwindling interest payments, and the need to draw from his principle to pay for living expenses, he no doubt foresaw how rapidly his nest egg could erode.

Opportunity for Retirement Planning Missed

If they'd had a sensible investment plan, grandpa could have relaxed, knowing there was little chance they'd ever run out of money. After all, with a properly balanced portfolio, following the conservative "4 Percent Rule" would have allowed them to spend a six-figure sum every year, a level they never actually came close to hitting after retirement.

Because my grandparents had no one guide them to a financially comfortable retirement, they missed some huge opportunities, and gained unnecessary stress. Not that they needed to spend more, but being able to see his portfolio grow would have been a comfort to grandpa. However, if there's a silver lining to be found in this story, it's that his situation prompted me to get educated about investing early on. Along the way, I also learned of the beauty in saving and letting time work its compound-growth magic.

I'm happy to say that, though I'm only in my 30s, I've already amassed a tidy sum over two decades of saving and investing. Without even knowing it, my grandfather may have proved to be the most important influence in my financial life, simply by showing me that slow and steady wins the race.

Thank you, grandpa. I miss you, and I will always remember the lessons you taught me.

 

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Here's the Dirty Secret of Tax-Dodging Corporate Inversions

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On the Money Drugstore Loyalty Cards
Richard Drew/APWalgreen opted against a well-publicized inversion.
Corporate inversions -- when a U.S. company buys or merges with a foreign firm and then technically moves the business to the other country -- have become something all politicians can happily revile. With their two-targets-in-one opportunity to bash either corporate greed or traitorous antipatriotism, Democrats and Republicans alike have an easy target to take aim at.

So, the media rails over corporations that seek to extricate themselves from their tax obligations even as the Obama administration cracks down on companies moving overseas, as The Associated Press has reported. But there's a dirty secret: Much of what people think they know about corporate inversions is wrong and, in the grander scheme of things, inversions are small potatoes in the tax-avoidance world.

"Inversions have been made into this political, moral issue, which sometimes clouds the reality," tax attorney Elan Keller of the law firm Caplin & Drysdale told DailyFinance. "Companies invert for a number of reasons ... having little to do with tax. It just so happens that in inverting they've been able to create a tax benefit. But there has to be [a bigger] underlying business reason to invert. Otherwise shareholders or the board aren't going to agree to it."

'Misrepresentation' of the Walgreen Case

"The mega example that a lot of people had visceral reactions to was Walgreens (WAG)," said Martin Press, a tax attorney with the law firm Gunster, Yoakley & Stewart. "There's been a lot of misrepresentation. If Walgreens had gone ahead and done this, it would not have affected the income tax liability of its U.S. operations. They would pay as much U.S. income tax as they would have before."

Any company operating in the U.S. has to pay taxes on the profits it makes here. In addition, domestic companies pay taxes on their global profits. They get a credit on the tax they pay foreign countries for profits from those regions, but with our relatively high 35 percent corporate income tax, that still means a hefty additional chunk for the feds.

But a common technique used by these businesses already keeps much of that potential tax revenue out of the coffers of the Internal Revenue Service. Let's say a U.S. company owns foreign subsidiaries that do business on its behalf in other countries. So long as the profits of those companies are never repatriated home, this so-called active business income remains out of the Treasury's reach, according to Eric Toder, an Institute fellow at the Urban Institute and a co-director of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. "Lawyers tell me they're pretty successful at stripping income out of the U.S.," Toder said.

2003 Congressional Action Made Inversions More Difficult

Also, contrary to popular belief, inversions have already gotten much tougher to implement. "The benefits of inverting were greater before 2003," said Julie Bradlow, a tax attorney with Moore & Van Allen. That was the year Congress closed some major loopholes.

Inversions still certainly can have significant tax benefits. Depending on a company's global structure, new holdings in other countries might not be taxable in the U.S., even though previously created subsidiaries might be. And there are complex maneuvers they can employ, such as having a foreign parent loan money to the new subsidiary in the U.S. The company here gets a tax deduction for paying interest on the loan, lowering its tax burden, even though the interest paid stays in the corporate family. "If you do this inversion, you can strip earnings [out of the U.S.] more successfully," said Kimberly Clausing, a professor of economics at Reed College.

"Inversions themselves are a symptom of the sort of arbitrariness of the tax code." - Kimberly Clausing

But when it comes to legal tax dodges, inversions aren't the strongest move. Looking at various congressional proposals to reduce what is possible, "the [United States Congress Joint Committee on Taxation] has scored the legislative proposals as raising $20 billion over 10 years," Toder said. "That's less than 1 percent of projected corporate receipts." Clausing agreed, pegging her estimate of the revenue lost from corporate tax avoidance at $90 billion a year. "And inversions are probably less than 10 percent of that," she said.

"Inversions themselves are a symptom of the sort of arbitrariness of the tax code as it is now and some of the ways it's not working," Clausing said. "Ideally we'd like a tax code that didn't have such arbitrary distinctions based on simple accounting and legal shenanigans."

But that would take political will across parties, and not just in Washington. Tax jurisdiction shopping and shifting happens because competing countries use their tax policies as a way to attract companies, jobs and revenue. Until politicians, and their constituents, understand that we're all playing a losing game, nothing substantial is likely to change.

 

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3 Reasons Investors Love General Electric Company's Dividend

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Source: Flickr/Jeffrey Turner.

A conglomerate like General Electric offers different things to different investors. Some gravitate to GE for its big bets on energy, while others appreciate the company's unique culture of innovation. And then there are those who just want a healthy dividend payout, which GE has maintained for over 100 years.

GE manages to fit the mold for each stripe of shareholder, but I would argue that the company has bent over backward for dividend enthusiasts since the recent economic meltdown.

In GE's 2012 annual report, for example, CEO Jeff Immelt stated, "We want investors to see GE as a safe, long-term investment. One with a great dividend." He went on to point out that, in terms of allocating cash, "The top priority remains growing the dividend." The dividend comes first, bar none. 


As it continues to reposition itself as a manufacturing-heavy blue chip, here are three reasons dividend investors will continue to flock to GE.

1. Management shows shareholders the money

The first reason to feel optimistic about the dividend is that Immelt and company seemed to have learned a lesson from their banking identity crisis in 2008. The quote mentioned above, for instance, indicates that the sanctity of the dividend has imposed discipline on their cash management approach.

And if you think that's just lip service, consider some of the recent trends at GE:

  • Between 2010 and 2013, dividends per share grew from $0.46 to $0.79 per share, an increase of 72%.
  • GE's current and projected dividend yield is 3.5%, versus an industry average of 2.2%.
  • Total cash returned to investors has jumped 176%, from $6.6 billion to $18.2 billion, between 2010 and 2013, including share buybacks and dividends paid.

Most important, GE's dividend is more than outpacing inflation, it's walloping it at a growth rate of 20% versus 2% since 2010.

2. The dividend's not breaking the bank

It's great to see the dividend growing at such an impressive rate, but investors also want to know that it will prove sustainable. The dividend cutback in 2009 was hard enough to swallow; any hint of another one would give this shareholder an ulcer.

A good way to gauge the affordability of the dividend is to look at the payout ratio as a percent of cash flow or earnings. At the end of 2013, GE's payout represented 54% of free cash flow per share, well below the preferred ceiling of 65%. From a different angle, the payout ratio stands at only 62% of 2013 earnings. 

So far, GE's played its cards conservatively since the financial crisis, which has given it time to fortify its balance sheet and accelerate earnings. As a result, there's little reason to fret over the payout at its current trajectory.

What's more, investors can take comfort in the fact that GE is the second-richest company in America in terms of domestic cash on hand. Only Bank of America topped GE's $88.7 billion cash balance in 2013.

3. The company's strategy is sound

Finally, dividend investors want a growing, sustainable dividend to be supported by a competitive underlying business. And GE fits the bill here as well.

A durable competitive advantage -- also referred to as an "economic moat" -- is built on one of four main pillars: a strong brand, economies of scale, network effect, or high switching costs. It's hard to argue GE doesn't have clout in every one of these categories.

GE's brand is ranked as the sixth most valuable in the world according to the widely recognized Interbrand brand report. And when it comes to economies of scale, GE came to symbolize this phrase during the go-go days under Jack Welch's leadership, and size is still a differentiator today.

Finally, as I've pointed out before, GE's future profits will depend heavily on network effects and the high hurdles imposed by switching costs. Put simply, GE's making substantial investments to offer follow-on maintenance services for its equipment around the world. It's also betting big on predictive tools like the industrial Internet.

The more places that GE operates in, the easier it is for customers-such as airlines or oil companies-to rely on its expertise when something goes wrong. Likewise, GE's software will impose huge switching costs when companies take advantage of the power of "big data" and analytics to reduce downtime on their machines.

All things considered, GE has a strong edge in manufacturing, which is crucial as it looks to distance itself from its banking days of old.

A new-and-improved GE wants to focus on manufacturing things like rail locomotives. Source: General Electric.

Why it's not too late to hop on GE's dividend train

We Fools have been singing the praises of dividend stocks for years, and perhaps more so than ever since the financial crisis. When investors like us crave stability, steady payouts provide it.

GE management got this message and shored up the company's balance sheet. Looking ahead, GE's dividend is backed by a pile of cash and a sturdy business. For those who've sat out thus far, it's not too late to get on board.

Top dividend stocks for the next decade
The smartest investors know that dividend stocks simply crush their non-dividend-paying counterparts over the long term. That's beyond dispute. They also know that a well-constructed dividend portfolio creates wealth steadily, while still allowing you to sleep like a baby. Knowing how valuable such a portfolio might be, our top analysts put together a report on a group of high-yielding stocks that should be in any income investor's portfolio. To see our free report on these stocks, just click here.

The article 3 Reasons Investors Love General Electric Company's Dividend originally appeared on Fool.com.

Isaac Pino, CPA, owns shares of General Electric Company. The Motley Fool recommends Bank of America. The Motley Fool owns shares of Bank of America and General Electric Company. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Market Wrap: U.S. Stocks Slide on Global Growth Concerns

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Autos Contract Talks GM
AP/Paul SancyaChevrolet Volts on the assembly line at a General Motors plant in Hamtramck, Michigan. GM's stock sank Tuesday; analysts predict its earnings will suffer as it invests heavily in production.
By STEVE ROTHWELL

NEW YORK -- The prospects of weakening global growth weighed on the stock market Tuesday.

U.S. growth may be strengthening, but the outlook elsewhere is far less encouraging. On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund trimmed its forecast for global economic growth. A surprisingly weak report on industrial production in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, added to the concerns.

Industrial companies, whose fortunes are closely tied those of the global economy, led the sell-off. Government bonds rallied as investors snapped up safe assets, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note close to its lowest level of the year.

After a weak September, the slump in stocks is showing no signs of abating in October. The Standard & Poor's index has now dropped almost 4 percent since closing at a record Sept. 18.

"Investors have become a bit more cautious about earnings and about the pace of global growth," said Kate Warne, a principal at Edward Jones, an investment firm. "That reassessment is leading to a bit more caution on stocks."

The Standard & Poor's 500 index (^GPSC) fell 29.72 points, or 1.5 percent, to 1,935.10. The index closed at a record 2,011.36 on Sept. 18.

The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) dropped 272.52 points, or 1.6 percent, to 16,719.39. The Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) fell 69.60 points, or 1.6 percent, to 4,385.20.

General Motors (GM) was among the biggest decliners in the S&P 500 after analysts at Morgan Stanley cut their price target for the stock. The analysts predict that the automaker's earnings will suffer as it invests heavily in production. GM's stock dropped $1.98, or 5.9 percent, to $31.77.

SodaStream (SODA) was another big loser. The company said it isn't winning over enough new customers in the U.S. and reported preliminary sales results that fell short of Wall Street's expectations. The stock tumbled $6.05, or 21.9 percent, to $21.52.

Stocks started the day lower after a report showed that German industrial output fell 4 percent in August, far more than expected. The slump follows other disappointing economic reports and suggests Europe's economy will not recover as strongly as hoped in the third quarter.

The prospect of slowing growth in other parts of the world weighing on corporate profits was behind the sell-off Tuesday, said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank. Companies will soon start reporting earnings for the third quarter and investors will be watching out for their forecasts for the rest of the year.

"Investors are starting to get worried that Europe is going to dent growth," Ablin said. "It's an open invitation for managements to lower their guidance."

The IMF trimmed its outlook for global economic growth this year and next, mostly because of weaker expansions in Japan, Latin America and Europe. The IMF said Tuesday that the global economy will grow 3.3 percent this year, slightly below what it forecast in July.

Many analysts say, though, that the investors have no need to panic and should focus on the signs that the U.S. economy is strengthening.

"Investors should remain comfortable at these levels and not be panicked by the recent volatility," said Sean Lynch, a managing director of global equity research and strategy for Wells Fargo Private Bank.

The indications of slower growth in Europe and elsewhere outside of the U.S. also weighed on oil prices.

Benchmark U.S. crude fell $1.49 to close at $88.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its lowest level since April of 2013. Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils used by many U.S. refineries, fell 68 cents to close at $92.11 on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

Sliding oil prices are also hitting energy stocks, and the sector extended its losses on Tuesday. Energy companies in the S&P 500 have dropped 9.4 percent in the past month.

U.S. government bond prices rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.34 percent from 2.42 percent on Monday. That's close to its lowest level of the year.

In metals trading, gold rose $5.10, or 0.4 percent, to $1,212.40 an ounce. Silver edged up 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $17.24 an ounce. Copper was little changed at $3.04 per pound.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve is due to release notes on its latest meeting on Wednesday. Investors will be looking for signs of when the Fed might raise interest rates. The first rate increase is not expected until mid-2015.

Among other stocks making big moves on Tuesday:

o. Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) jumped after analysts at Goldman Sachs initiated their coverage of the stock with a "buy" rating, predicting that the company's sales and earnings growth are poised to accelerate. Keurig's stock jumped $6.50, or 4.9 percent, to $139.75.

o. AGCO (AGCO), an agricultural equipment maker, cut its third-quarter and full-year earnings forecasts, sayings its results are expected to be hurt by weaker sales in all regions, lower production and the impact of shifting exchange rates. The company will report its earnings on Oct. 28. AGCO's stock dropped $4.97, or 10.6 percent, $42.13.

AP Business Writer Bernard Condon contributed to this report.

What to watch Wednesday:

  • Monsanto (MON) and Costco (COST) report quarterly financial results before U.S. markets open.
  • The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its September interest rate meeting at 2 p.m. Eastern time.
  • Alcoa (AA) and Ruby Tuesday (RT) report quarterly financial results after U.S. markets close.

 

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PepsiCo Earnings Preview: 3 Key Items to Watch

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In its second-quarter 2014 earnings report, PepsiCo  raised guidance for its full-year "core" (adjusted) earnings per share, from 7% to 8%. You can see quite clearly what boosted management's confidence from this detail of a rather lovely infographic the company produces each quarter as part of its earnings release:

Source: PepsiCo. The complete Q2 2014 earnings infographic can be found here.


Organic revenue growth, that is, growth after adjusting for acquisitions, divestitures, and the effects of foreign currency translations, is up 4% through the first two quarters of 2014. As I discussed in a recent article, that's no mean feat, given both the tepid global economic recovery as well as an increasingly fractured geopolitical environment. My Foolish colleague and consumer goods maven Tamara Rutter provides an example, pointing out that Russia's recent boycott of western goods could have some impact on PepsiCo, as Russia alone accounts for over 7% of PepsiCo revenue.

Yet the company has skilfully navigated a tricky macro environment over the first half of 2014. Let's look at three big-picture items that have bearing on how well PepsiCo continues to solve the earnings puzzle as it reports its third-quarter earnings before the opening bell on Thursday.

Watch Frito Lay North America
Last quarter, Frito Lay North America, or FLNA, the company's snacks division, increased revenue by 2%, two percentage points less than both its recent quarterly trend and its previous full-year growth of 4%. On the company's earnings conference call, CEO Indra Nooyi stated that she wasn't too concerned about the division's performance. Nooyi remarked that while the snacks business had witnessed a slight decline during the quarter, part of the effect may be attributable to a promotion that was moved from the second quarter to the third. In addition, at the time of the earnings call (late July), the company was already seeing increased activity at FLNA. PepsiCo certainly has an interest in returning FLNA to its current trend: The division is the company's second largest, and it has accounted for more than one-fifth of PepsiCo revenue so far this year. 

Carbonated soft drinks: Expect a moderate drag
For the last couple of years, both PepsiCo and beverage arch-rival Coca-Cola have struggled with declining sales of their flagship soft drink brands as consumers opt for healthier beverages, and as other types of refreshment including bottled teas, energy drinks, and juices rise in popularity.

Through promotional activities, PepsiCo has sought to limit the damage from the flailing fortunes of megabrands like Pepsi and Diet Pepsi. Last quarter, PepsiCo Beverages America, or PAB, reported an overall organic growth rate of 1%, which was affected by a 2% decrease in North American carbonated soft drink volume.

This quarter, investors may likely see a similar decline in North American soda pop versus last year. Yet PepsiCo's task isn't really to light a fire under these sales, but to hold the deterioration to manageable levels. PAB is the company's largest division, having contributed one third of total revenue year to date. Any further weakness in soft drinks could cloud the company's back half of 2014.

Will the strong U.S. dollar catch PepsiCo by surprise?
If you're invested in a number of multinational companies, you may hear a complaint from many of them over the next two quarters: The U.S. dollar is on an almighty tear. This affects U.S.-based companies with a diversified book of business around the globe, like PepsiCo.

A strong dollar decreases the value of foreign sales denominated in local currencies, which are then translated back to U.S. currency when earnings are reported. While the dollar has shown strength this entire year, it's posted a singularly impressive performance in the foreign exchange markets this summer, rising over 8% against a mixed basket of foreign currencies.

The dollar really started to take off just after PepsiCo executives confidently raised their EPS forecast by 1% in July. Don't be surprised if the company points to the greenback as a damper on revenue and earnings growth in Q3. If management changes its bias and guides earnings downward for the rest of the year, we can take an educated guess beforehand that the U.S. dollar's strength will be one of the reasons. 

Given executives' assured tone at the second-quarter earnings in July, it's likely PepsiCo will post a solid quarter. But the proof will be in the earnings, and we'll revisit the themes above, and any other noteworthy items, after the company reports later this week.

Apple Watch revealed: The real winner is inside
Apple recently revealed the product of its secret-development "dream team" -- Apple Watch. The secret is out, and some early viewers are claiming its everyday impact could trump the iPod, iPhone, and the iPad. One small company makes Apple's gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and see where the real money is to be made, just click here!

The article PepsiCo Earnings Preview: 3 Key Items to Watch originally appeared on Fool.com.

Asit Sharma has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends PepsiCo. The Motley Fool owns shares of PepsiCo. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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The Must-Watch Date for the Apple iPhone 6 in China

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Saying tech giant Apple's iPhone 6 and 6 Plus smartphones are a hot commodity would be an impressive understatement.

Source: Apple

As perhaps the most anticipated tech story of the year, it should surprise exactly no one that demand has largely exceeded supply for Apple's new smartphone lineup, especially the larger iPhone 6 Plus.

Apple set yet another record for first weekend iPhone sales when the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus officially went on sale in its initial rounds across developed markets throughout late September. The company will likely raise eyebrows again this weekend when its iPhones will become available for preorder in another critical market for the world's largest publicly traded company: China.


Apple's next must-watch launch date
This Friday, Oct. 10, Apple will officially begin accepting preorders for the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus in China, with actual shipments starting one week later on the 17th. This is important for several reasons. 

Under the supervision of CEO Tim Cook, Apple has made significant inroads into the high growth Chinese smartphone and tablet markets, a trend that will only accelerate in the years to come. Thanks to its cache as a status symbol, Apple's high-end consumer-electronics devices have proven enormously popular. However, the iPhone 6 and especially the 6 Plus are likely to prove significantly more popular than other devices in Apple's product portfolio in China for one key reason: screen size.

Chinese smartphone users absolutely love large-screened smartphone, colloquially referred to as "phablets." Case in point, 40% of Chinese smartphone sales in the month of March were attributed to devices with screen sizes of five inches or larger. Thankfully for Apple and its shareholders, the iPhone 6 Plus, with its 5.5 inch screen, is a device that perfectly situates Apple to take advantage of this growing preference among Chinese consumers. The Apple iPhone 6 and 6 Plus were likely to prove resounding successes in China because of the aged state of Apple's iPhone installed base in China, and the inclusion of the larger 6 Plus in Apple's latest iPhone refresh only further stacks the deck in Apple's favor.

Not without its risks 
The accepted dogma for this storyline holds that the Apple iPhone 6 and 6 Plus will prove successful in China (and globally for that matter). However, there are several key potential mitigating factors anyone following the company will want to consider.

The first is price. For a developing country where per capita incomes remain relatively low, the Apple iPhone 6 and 6 Plus are by no means cheap. And, it's also no secret that additional costs like import taxes help drive up the cost of Apple's highly sought-after iDevices to levels well above their sticker price in developed markets. The 16GB version of the iPhone 6 will retail for roughly $860 (RMB 5,288), and the presumably more popular iPhone 6 Plus will cost around $990 (RMB 6,088). This is by no means cheap. However, also noting that the memory structure of Apple's new iPhone lineup (16, 64, and 128MB models) heavily incentivizes paying up for memory, the average cost of a new iPhone in China could easily sit somewhere above $1000, making it largely unobtainable for all but the richest Chinese citizens.

The second issue also relates to price for Apple's new iPhones. In a bid to support China's budding domestic smartphone makers, the Chinese government has been attempting to reduce the amount of subsidy support its domestic telecom companies can offer for highly popular foreign handsets like the iPhone. Such moves would help remove one of the critical tools Chinese telecom companies have to help reduce the overall sticker shock for consumers.  

Despite these potentially dampening risk factors, the Apple iPhone 6 and 6 Plus are poised to quickly become Apple's best-selling iPhones ever in China when they launch later this month, and investors are undoubtedly aware of this. As such, anyone even casually interested in the iPhone 6 storyline will want to pay close attention to Apple's commentary on the relative strength of this weekend's presales figures. Apple's and its iPhone 6 and 6 Plus certainly have their work cut out for them in the world's largest smartphone market. However, I'm certainly a believer it's more likely than not that Apple will once again impress investors and the market as these key upcoming dates approach.

Apple Watch revealed: The real winner is inside
Apple recently revealed the product of its secret-development "dream team" -- Apple Watch. The secret is out, and some early viewers are claiming its everyday impact could trump the iPod, iPhone, and the iPad. In fact, ABI Research predicts 485 million of this type of device will be sold per year. But one small company makes Apple's gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and see where the real money is to be made, just click here!

The article The Must-Watch Date for the Apple iPhone 6 in China originally appeared on Fool.com.

Andrew Tonner owns shares of Apple. The Motley Fool recommends Apple. The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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What Non-Ticket Fees Mean to Airline Profits

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Ancillary revenue has become a major part of airline industry revenue, but few realize just how important it is to airlines. In a previous article, Fools learned about how ancillary, or add-on, revenue is defined and which airlines are the biggest revenue generators. Unsurprisingly, the budget/discount airlines rely on ancillary revenue the most, but traditional airlines such as United Airlines are increasingly relying on it, too. Let's take a look at some industrywide figures that help explain the importance of this revenue to airline profitability, and at who is doing what.

Source: Motley Fool Flickr account.


Growth of ancillary revenue
It's hard to put an exact figure on industrywide profitability from ancillary revenue, because not all airlines disclose the data and/or break out profits generated from ancillary revenue. However, it's safe to assume that activities like baggage checking, seat allocation, booking fees, and on-board entertainment are high-margin activities. With this in mind, here is a comparison of industrywide ancillary revenue, garnered from The CarTrawler Yearbook of Ancillary Revenue by IdeaWorksCompany, versus estimates for airline profitability.

The data tracked only 59 of the largest airlines in 2013, but the net profit estimates are far wider in their coverage. In other words, the real amount of ancillary revenue is higher than the data suggests.

Source: CarTrawler Yearbook of Ancillary Revenue, IATA website.

To put these figures into further context, the IATA forecasts that net profit per passenger will be $5.65 in 2014, while industrywide ancillary revenue per passenger (from the data charted here) was forecast to be $16 in 2013. It's fair to say that without ancillary revenue, a lot of airlines wouldn't be profitable.

Moreover, increasing ancillary revenue is clearly a large part of airlines' growth strategy, and the stock markets have woken up to it. The latest airlines to introduce checked-bag fees include Air Canada and WestJet Airlines (and both stocks rose on the day of their respective announcements), while even JetBlue Airways Corporation is reported to be considering how to increase non-ticket revenue.

Airlines with growth opportunities
In a previous article, readers saw that United Airlines is the leading revenue generator by total revenue, and also the leading traditional airline in terms of revenue share from ancillary sources (14.9% in 2013), with ancillary revenue of $41 per passenger. Just over half of this revenue comes from miles sold via its frequent flier program, but even excluding that, United is still generating around $20 per passenger -- a figure notably above Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines , at just about $15 and $12, respectively.

The implication is that Delta and Southwest have an opportunity to play catch-up to United, and investors should look out for this in their statements. Meanwhile, budget airlines such as Spirit Airlines and Wizz Air generated 38.4% and 34.9% of their revenues from ancillary sources in 2013. It's harder to see how Spirit and Wizz Air can significantly improve their ancillary revenue per passenger, especially as the figures are already more than $51 and $34, respectively.

The bottom line
All told, ancillary revenue has become a key profit and revenue growth driver in the airline industry. The trend is upward, and investors should look at airlines like Delta and Southwest for their potential to increase ancillary revenue in the future. In a sense, these fees and charges allow airlines to differentiate pricing to customers-- helping airlines keep ticket fees down for customers who can avoid paying certain ancillary fees. This is good news for customers

It's also good news for airlines, as it could help keep load factors (a measure of the capacity utilization in terms of seat-kilometers) stay high in the industry -- there are fewer things that hurt airline profitability more than empty planes. Ultimately, investors can look forward to airline stocks that are trying to increase this source of revenue in the future. 

Apple Watch revealed: The real winner is inside
Apple recently revealed the product of its secret-development "dream team" -- the Apple Watch. The secret is out, and some early viewers are claiming that its everyday impact could trump the iPod, iPhone, and the iPad. In fact, ABI Research predicts that 485 million of this type of device will be sold per year. But one small company makes Apple's gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early-in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and see where the real money is to be made, just click here!

The article What Non-Ticket Fees Mean to Airline Profits originally appeared on Fool.com.

Lee Samaha has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Apple. The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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What Makes Starbucks' Mobile App Great?

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Courtesy: Starbucks

Loyalty-focused smartphone apps have become pretty much a standard among big consumer brands and most of these apps are pretty much the same. However, there are reasons that customers actually love Starbucks' mobile app, and why the app has been the most successful in the industry. For the reasons below, it will probably continue to be the most successful for a long time. No other business can really compare to how well Starbucks is integrating its app into its business model, and the new additions to the app will continue to make it the best app of its kind out there. 

Mobile payments that just get better and better
Starbucks didn't invent mobile payments, but it was one of the first companies to make them widely successful as a day-to-day function for consumers. The Starbucks app was launched back in 2009, and started accepting mobile payments in 2011. Starting with the bar code scanner placed at the register of only a select few stores around the country, which decreased waiting times and made payments incredibly easy, Starbucks grew the service to the incredible numbers it posts today. Now, the Starbucks app processes more than 6 million payments per week in the U.S., which accounts for 15% of the total transactions of the coffee chain, and is on track to process over $1.5 billion in sales in 2014, according to an estimate from Business Insider.

With the introduction of Shake to Pay, customers who are already on their phones checking emails or reading news while in line for their coffee, can then simply shake their phone to pull up the barcode of their Starbucks Card to pay for their coffee and snacks. Shake to Pay for iOS was announced in March; it launched on Android last month. The app also started allowing customers to tip their Starbucks barista directly from the app with a simple click following the payment. By looking at how customers were interacting with their device while in the store, Starbucks found ways to improve its payments app.

The Starbucks mobile app with tipping. Courtesy: Starbucks


Happening now: More customer and partner integration
Now that nearly every company is following this lead with in-app payments and customer loyalty programs, how is Starbucks continuing to stay ahead of the tech curve? The answer is: total customer integration. This means giving people more options within the app to make their time at Starbucks easier and more enjoyable. This includes features like pre-ordering and pre-paying to have your drink waiting for you to pick up, as well as instant downloads of your favorite newspaper just as you are getting your coffee to sit down.

Starbucks is even teaming up with other companies, like the car-ride service Uber, to offer even more expansive experiences through the app. In fact, you could even say Starbucks is creating a kind of VIP experience for its customers. Straight from the app, you can order your black car service to pick you up and take you to your local Starbucks, where your drink is already waiting for you when you arrive since you've ordered and paid ahead of time through the app. It will also have your favorite daily newspaper loaded on your phone ready to read along with your coffee, and then have your private driver return you home, all without ever leaving the app. Now that's the kind of app that stands out.

What to look for in the next few quarters
Shake to Pay and mobile tipping were the big releases of the early part of the year. Then integration of Uber and other company partnerships were introduced at the beginning of the fall. What will be the next big innovation? It's hard to say, but given the track record, it's likely that there will be more app innovations announced in the next few quarters.

Through MyStarbucksIdea.com, customers and Starbucks-app lovers have a forum to submit and share ideas to make the Starbucks experience better. This isn't limited to the Starbucks' app, but it allows tech-forward consumers to discuss and even vote on what tech innovations Starbucks can make to keep customers loving their Starbucks experience, meaning there will be a wealth of ideas for app developers to work with.

And if it's not directly related to new features, it might be about new areas of monetization. There have reportedly been discussions of Starbucks licensing its app technology for other companies to use with their own brands. With the success of the Starbucks app so far, there could definitely be other companies willing to pay major sums to get the same advantages.

Foolish final buzz
Starbucks is the industry leader for many more reasons than just its great app, but the app is certainly one very good example of why Starbucks is such a strong company. The app shows Starbucks' commitment to innovation and forward-looking customer integration. As was true with the array of new features added in the last few quarters, customers and investors should expect to see more headlines in the coming quarters on how well the Starbucks app continues to do. Whether that means more features, more integration, or even licensing the technology, I expect continued app development will be a good thing for Starbucks customers and investors alike.

Leaked: Apple's next smart device (warning, it may shock you)
Apple recently recruited a secret-development "dream team" to guarantee its newest smart device was kept hidden from the public for as long as possible. But the secret is out, and some early viewers are claiming its everyday impact could trump the iPod, iPhone, and the iPad. In fact, ABI Research predicts 485 million of this type of device will be sold per year. But one small company makes Apple's gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and see Apple's newest smart gizmo, just click here!

The article What Makes Starbucks' Mobile App Great? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Bradley Seth McNew has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Starbucks. The Motley Fool owns shares of Starbucks. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Why Are We Importing This Carbon-Spewing Fuel From Russia?

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Russia is once again pushing the envelope on the world stage. The United States and its allies have placed increasingly stringent sanctions on the country to try to change its ways. So why was New Hampshire's largest utility so desperate for fuel that it did a deal with the country anyway?

No comment
When Bloomberg contacted Public Service of New Hampshire about the purchase of nearly 40,000 tonnes of thermal coal from Russia for its Schiller power plant, the response was, "A shipment of coal was contracted from Russia that met our operational and economic needs." That terse reply is hardly surprising given that the United States is one of several nations imposing sanctions on Russia for its involvement in Ukraine and annexation of Crimea.

(Source: Richard Freeman, via Wikimedia Commons)

For the most part, those sanctions have targeted the oil industry. But Russia is no slouch when it comes to coal, holding the world's second largest reserves of the cheap, but dirty, fuel. That said, the United States has the world's largest reserves, roughly 50% more than runner up Russia. There's little doubt that coal is out of favor domestically, but why would New Hampshire do a deal with a country that we are trying to isolate when there's plenty of coal on its home turf?


Would you believe that answer is trains? U.S. coal miners like Peabody Energy , Arch Coal , and Cloud Peak Energy would love to sell New Hampshire the coal it needs, but it can't because of delivery delays on the rails. Although it's more complicated than this, the basics of the situation are that the extra cold winter last year caused rail problems that have yet to be resolved.

In fact Peabody Energy CEO Gregory Boyce noted in his company's second quarter conference call that, "We estimate that 15 million tonnes of [Powder River Basin] shipments have been missed in the first half of the year due to the low power rail performance and utility coal conservation measures due to inadequate deliveries." This despite the fact that utility stockpiles of coal from that low-cost region were down 30% year over year, "a dramatic improvement over the last few years as the inventory overhang has been removed."

In other words, coal should be doing better. Only Peabody spokesman Vic Svec points out a tiny problem: "While utilities are relatively low on supplies they're not bidding into a market for coal they can't get delivered." Seriously, why buy something you can't get? Instead, utilities are being forced to cut back on coal use to help ensure they have enough to last the upcoming winter! That, by the way, is increasing their use of natural gas, which in many cases costs more to burn—keep an eye on your electric bill; it might be going up.

(Source: Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)

Other sources
So, New Hampshire's deal with Russia is basically a way to get fuel that it couldn't get domestically. And even though it required working with a country that's on the verboten list, ensuring the lights stay on throughout the winter basically required working with the "enemy." Not ideal, but you do what you have to.

Interestingly, however, Peabody Energy provided a coal market update in mid-September that was notably upbeat. "Powder River Basin demand remains strong as it is competitively advantaged to natural gas generation at gas prices above $2.50 to $2.75/mmBtu, and improving rail performance is expected to result in higher Powder River Basin demand in 2015." Moreover, "Based on recent transactions, Peabody is now signing Powder River Basin contracts at materially higher levels than published indices that are not reflective of physical markets."

So at the very same time that there's blood flowing on Coal Miner Street, Peabody is starting to talk about things getting better for the Powder River Basin (PRB). That's good news for Peabody, though it has notable exposure to the weak metallurgical coal market, too, which will keep results weak.

Cloud Peak, however, only mines for coal in the PRB. And while it lost money in each of the first two quarters as rail delays took their toll, it had managed to stay in the black prior to that despite the broad industry downturn. Cloud Peak could be worth watching here.

New Hampshire's Russian deal shows coal is not out of the woods yet, but if you can stomach buying when everyone else is scared, now could be a good time for a deeper dive in the unloved coal sector.

"As significant as the discovery of oil itself!"
Recent research by the U.S. Energy Information Administration has already tabbed this "Oil Boom 2.0" with a downright staggering current value of $5.8 trillion. The Motley Fool just completed a brand-new investigative report on this significant investment topic and a single, under-the-radar company that has its hands tightly wrapped around the driving force that has allowed this boom to take off in the first placeSimply click here for access.

The article Why Are We Importing This Carbon-Spewing Fuel From Russia? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Reuben Brewer has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Here's Why This Billionaire Fund Manager is Betting Big on Manchester United Stock

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Manchester United has been weak in the field and in the stock market this year. On the field, the Premier League soccer team had a slow start to the season after last year's seventh-place finish. The stock is up slightly in 2014, but it is down 6% over the last 12 months. One billionaire fund manager has raised his stake in the team even as the majority owners of Manchester United lower theirs. Read on to find out why Ron Baron is betting big on Manchester United.

Source: Manchester United.


Baron is CEO, CIO, and portfolio manager of Baron Funds and Baron Capital Management. He is a noted growth fund manager whose Baron Growth Fund has returned cumulative average growth of 13.7% since its inception in 1994. The people at Baron Funds are long-term buy-and-hold growth investors with an average holding period of seven years.

According to the firm, Baron invests in businesses with business models that can't be challenged and that feature big growth opportunities while having a value-oriented purchase discipline based on what they believe the company can earn over the next three to five years. His philosophy also stresses thinking long term and investing in management teams with integrity and similar long-term mind-sets; this is encompassed in his firm's mission statement: "we invest in people." Finally, Baron Capital emphasizes exhaustive research to understand businesses, management teams, and industries, and to manage risk.

A few weeks ago, Baron Capital Group revealed that it had upped its stake in Manchester United to 15,026,190 shares. That's 37.8% of Manchester United's publicly traded shares, or 9.2% of the company overall. Currently the company has 39,777,957 Class A shares, which each get one vote and are publicly traded. Another 124,000,000 Class B shares are not publicly traded and carry 10 votes each. So why has Ron Baron bought so much of Manchester United? Based on his investment philosophy, I believe three things attract him to the company.

1. "We invest in people"
The Glazer family has owned Manchester United since 2005. Most of its ownership is held by a holding company called Red Football, though various family members have stakes held in irrevocable trusts. The Glazers own 124,000,000 Class B shares and 11,000,000 Class A shares, leaving the family with majority control, 82% of the economic rights, and 97.7% of the voting rights. How has the family done as stewards of the company?

The family had it relatively easy on the field for a few years as legendary manager Alex Ferguson led the team until the end of the 2012-2013 season. From 2005 he led the team to at least a top three finish every year, including four Premier League titles, a league cup win, and a title and two second-place finishes in the Champions League. After Ferguson's retirement, last season Manchester United hired David Moyes, who was sacked after he led the team to a seventh-place finish, missing out on qualification for European competition. The club has now invested considerable sums in players and a new coach to resume its winning ways.

Off the field, the Glazers have been paying down the debt they used to purchase the team. More important, the family has increased and diversified the club's revenue streams -- particularly its commercial revenue, which has gone from 27% of the team's overall revenue in 2007 to 42% last year.

Source: Manchester United.

The Glazers have done this by using Manchester United's strong brand to their advantage, which brings me to the second reason Baron is betting big on Manchester United.

2. "Business models that can't be challenged"
Soccer is unquestionably the most popular sport in the world. Manchester United claims it is the most-watched sports team in the world, with an estimated average live audience of 47 million people per game and a total of 659 million fans globally.

Manchester United is using that fan base to reap the largest sponsorship and licensing deals the world has ever seen. Beginning this season,General Motors'  Chevrolet is paying $70 million annually through 2021 to be the team's jersey sponsor. That's well over double the price some of the world's other most popular soccer teams are getting from their shirt sponsors.

Source: Manchester United.

This year, Manchester United also signed a 10-year deal with Adidas, starting at the end of this season, to handle the team's wholesale retail, merchandising, apparel, and product licensing. The contract stipulates that Adidas will pay Manchester United a minimum 750 million pounds over the life of the contract. At current exchange rates that is over $1 billion over 10 years, a price that was too high for current kit sponsor Nike to accept.

Source: Manchester United.

The deal also stipulates that Manchester United will retain rights to its own retail stores, e-commerce site, monobranded products, and soccer camps.

3. Big growth opportunities
One key reason that cable cord cutting has not become a bigger trend is live events and sports programming. The value of sports content is high and rising. For instance, ESPN costs your cable provider 40 times as much as the average cable channel to provide to you. The value of contracts to broadcast the Premier League and Champions League are on the rise, and are expected to rise further after the current deals lapse in 2016 and 2018.

Source: Manchester United.

With the number of people watching soccer continuing to grow, especially in the U.S., the clubs that will benefit from the increased viewership the most are those with the strongest performance on and off the field. There's a virtuous cycle as the clubs with the best off the field performance can invest in better players, enabling the club to perform well on the field, and bringing in a disproportionate number of new fans as more people start following the sport.

As long as Manchester United can resume its winning ways, the club's off-field financial performance should reward shareholders for years to come.

Your cable company is scared, but you can get rich
Manchester United and live sports are one of the few things keeping your cable company in business. Long term, the trend isn't good for cable companies, but do you know how to profit? There's $2.2 trillion out there to be had. Currently, cable grabs a big piece of it. That won't last. And when cable falters, three companies are poised to benefit. Click here for their names. Hint: They're not Netflix, Google, and Apple.

The article Here's Why This Billionaire Fund Manager is Betting Big on Manchester United Stock originally appeared on Fool.com.

Dan Dzombak can be found on Twitter @DanDzombak, on his Facebook page DanDzombak, or on his blog where he writes about investing, happiness, life, and what is success. He has been a Chelsea F.C. fan since they came to his hometown ten years ago. He has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors and Nike. The Motley Fool owns shares of Nike. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Why Do We Hate Cable Companies So Much?

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Everyone knows that cable companies like Comcast and Time Warner Cable are some of the most reviled companies around.Is it because of the slow Internet speeds? Is it the huge monthly bills? Is it because the average American has just one, maybe two, choices between cable companies in their area? Regardless of the reason, the verdict is in and American consumers are less happy with the cable industry than almost any other. But are consumers being fair?

In this episode of Where the Money Is Motley Fool Consumer Goods Analysts Nathan Hamilton and Sean O'Reilly dive into just how balanced American consumers are with their feelings toward cable companies despite the fact that cable company products are better than ever and hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent to bring customers better cable packages and high speed Internet connections. 

Your cable company is scared, but you can get rich
You know cable's going away. But do you know how to profit? There's $2.2 trillion out there to be had. Currently, cable grabs a big piece of it. That won't last. And when cable falters, three companies are poised to benefit. Click here for their names. Hint: They're not Netflix, Google, and Apple.


The article Why Do We Hate Cable Companies So Much? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Nathan Hamilton has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sean O'Reilly has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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What to Expect From Apple, Inc.'s October Event

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For the past 2 years, Apple has hosted separate events in September and October, spreading out product unveilings over the course of those months and dominating headlines and media coverage. October 16 is the date this year to mark on the calendar.

There are some obvious candidates of what to expect at the event, but there's also room for speculation about other products that Apple could show off. Let's start with the most likely headliners.

New iPads
Apple shifted its iPad product cycle in 2012 to fall releases. That was the year that Apple introduced the first-generation iPad Mini. Ever since, Apple has unveiled new tablets in October, and as such should do likewise this year with a new iPad Air and new Retina iPad Mini. Both new models are expected to get Touch ID sensors integrated into the home button, after the technology was introduced in the iPhone lineup last year.


The iPad Air 2 is expected to have a very similar overall design to the current iPad Air, with only minor changes. Apple could add an anti-reflective coating to the display in order to make it easier to read in direct sunlight. Apple is rumored to be adding a gold color option to the lineup this year as well, which would mirror the iPhone portfolio, which would mirror the iPhone portfolio. Spec bumps like a faster A8 or A8X processor and potentially more RAM could also be in store.

For the most part, the second-generation Retina iPad Mini is also expected to get most of the same upgrades as the iPad Air 2, with little if any design changes. However, there is a possibility that the second-generation Retina iPad Mini will be delayed until early 2015.

Code found within the iOS 8.1 beta that was distributed to developers hints that Apple will facilitate Apple Pay in the new iPad models. While the new iPads are not expected to carry NFC chips for use at retail locations (who carries around their tablet all the time?), Apple Pay will enable developers to accept payments in their apps as well as online purchases.

There has been considerable speculation that Apple is preparing to release a 12.9-inch "iPad Pro," but rumors suggest that this product will be unveiled in early 2015, if at all.

OS X Yosemite
The next major version of Apple's desktop operating system will almost undoubtedly launch this month. Announced this summer at Apple's developer conference for availability "this fall," OS X Yosemite features a massive aesthetic makeover that resembles iOS. Apple has already detailed all of the major new features in OS X Yosemite, so there aren't likely to be any surprises as far as features go.

Technically, the primary unknown with OS X Yosemite is the specific timing of the release. The company has already released the "golden master candidate" version of OS X to developers and participants of its public beta program, which is the final version before it is ready for widespread distribution, so the release is imminent.

With new iPads and OS X Yosemite all but certain for an October launch, let's turn to the products that are less certain.

Retina iMac
Apple has reportedly been working on a high-resolution version of its all-in-one iMac desktop. Hints of the "Retina" iMacs were first spotted this summer in early beta versions of OS X Yosemite.

The company may increase the resolution of the 27-inch model from 2,560 x 1,440 to a 5,120 x 2,880 panel, following its "Retina" strategy of doubling pixel dimensions. That would classify the display as a "5K" display. The smaller 21.5-inch model is expected to keep the same resolution.

The desktop is expected to feature high-end Intel Haswell processors as well as state-of-the-art AMD graphics. That would represent a switch in discrete graphics chips providers, as NVIDIA is Apple's current vendor.

Mac Mini
One of the least loved products within the Mac family is easily the Mac Mini, which hasn't been updated in 2 years. Sitting at the lowest price point for Macs, it makes sense why it gets the least attention from Apple. That being said, it's about time to update the smaller desktop.

Not much else is known about the possible Mac Mini refresh, but it stills seems entirely possible that one will take place this year considering the aging internals of the current models.

Apple Watch revealed: The real winner is inside
Apple recently revealed the product of its secret-development "dream team" -- Apple Watch. The secret is out, and some early viewers are claiming its everyday impact could trump the iPod, iPhone, and the iPad. In fact, ABI Research predicts 485 million of this type of device will be sold per year. But one small company makes Apple's gadget possible. And its stock price could have nearly unlimited room to run for early in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and see where there could be real money to be made, just click here!

The article What to Expect From Apple, Inc.'s October Event originally appeared on Fool.com.

Evan Niu, CFA owns shares of Apple. The Motley Fool recommends Apple, Intel, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple and Intel. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Breaking Up HP Will Be Great for Investors

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After shelving plans to sell off its PC business a few years ago, Hewlett-Packard has changed course with the announcement this week that it plans to break itself into two companies. HP will be comprised of the company's printing and PC business, while Hewlett-Packard Enterprise will sell enterprise hardware, software, and services to business customers.

The split makes sense for HP, which has been struggling to grow, allowing each new company to focus on its core business. For HP investors, the split also makes sense, since the total market capitalization of both new companies will likely be higher than that of HP today. This breakup has a very good chance of unlocking value for shareholders, and here's why.

Old vs. New
Here's a breakdown of HP's segment revenue and operating profit during fiscal 2013:

Segment

Revenue in Billions

Non-GAAP Operating Profit in Billions

Personal Systems

$32.07

$0.95

Printing

$23.85

$3.89

HP

$55.92

$4.84

Enterprise Group

$28.18

$4.30

Enterprise Services

$23.52

$0.68

Software

$3.91

$0.87

Financial

$3.63

$0.40

Hewlett-Packard Enterprise

$59.24

$6.25


Source: HP  

In terms of revenue, both new companies will be roughly the same size. The segments comprising Hewlett-Packard Enterprise generated more operating profit during fiscal year 2013 at a higher margin, but both companies will earn billions of dollars annually once the separation is complete.

How will this separation create shareholder value? Let's consider HP first. HP will be about the furthest thing from a growth company one can imagine. Printing has been in decline for quite some time, and the business doesn't appear to be stabilizing any time soon, and the PC market, while stronger than it's been in the past few years, is still expected to slowly shrink over time.

But HP's printing business is a cash cow, with operating margins in the mid-to-high teens. The business of selling ink and supplies to buyers of its printing hardware remains a lucrative one for HP, and it will continue to earn HP plenty of money even as it declines.

PCs are much lower margin, but they still contributed about $1 billion in operating profit in 2013. HP is the second-largest PC vendor in the world, and the more focused HP will be better-suited to compete with Lenovo Group in the PC market without being tied to the enterprise business.

While there are some growth prospects for HP, such as 3-D printing, I wouldn't bet on much growth from the company. A valuation for HP similar to that of HP today would seem reasonable, although if HP pays a strong dividend, investors could flock to the stock. HP could easily afford to pay what HP pays today in annual dividends, about $1.2 billion per year, leaving plenty left over for investments in 3-D printing and other areas. If HP becomes a dividend stock, it could very well command a higher valuation.

Enterprise bound
Hewlett-Packard Enterprise will look a lot like IBM, focused solely on enterprise hardware and supporting software and services. IBM got out of the PC game a long time ago, and Hewlett-Packard Enterprise is now making a similar, albeit belated, move.

HP Enterprise likely deserves a higher valuation than HP has today since there is at least some potential for growth. The low-margin PC business will no longer be holding the company back, and the potential to increase the profitability of the enterprise services segment, which has abysmally low margins, could give a nice boost to earnings. Removing the two segments that have tended to decline over the past few years will make it much easier for HP Enterprise to grow revenue, and its higher operating margin compared to HP today could lead to a higher valuation.

HP Enterprise does face some serious threats, however, that could derail the success of the breakup. Lenovo recently closed the deal to buy IBM's x86 server business, and the company is aiming to steal enterprise hardware market share away from HP. This could lead to lower margins in the server business, and that would be detrimental to HP Enterprise's bottom line.

HP Enterprise, though, will be better-suited to deal with the threat once it sheds its consumer-facing parts, and Lenovo will certainly have a more difficult time competing against a company that is solely focused on enterprise customers.

Final thoughts
The move to break up HP makes a lot of sense, and it has the potential to unlock some shareholder value. HP has never been a particularly good dividend stock, but post-split HP will earn more than it knows what to do with, and paying a solid dividend is a good way to make the stock look more attractive despite its lack of growth potential. HP Enterprise, now unburdened by PCs, can focus on protecting its server market share and growing its services business. A higher valuation than HP has today is possible, and I suspect that investors will ultimately benefit from HP's breakup plan.

Top dividend stocks for the next decade
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The article Breaking Up HP Will Be Great for Investors originally appeared on Fool.com.

Timothy Green has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of International Business Machines. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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How Come My ISP Won't Increase Internet Speed and Lower My Bill, Like They Do in Sweden?

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We Americans are getting addicted to our high-speed broadband connections. Unfortunately, they are often slower and more expensive than the Internet hook-ups you can grab in many other developed nations.

For example, my brother pays $40 a month for his 100-megabit broadband connection in Karlstad, Sweden. He can take his pick from 19 different service providers, all using a common last-mile infrastructure and competing on price and features. For $70 a month, he could upgrade to a full gigabit.


Me, I'm stuck paying $83 a month for a 50-megabit connection. Moreover, my upload connection rarely goes past half the speed Verizon (nyse: vz) promised. So I'm paying more and getting less, and if I wanted Verizon's fastest available FiOS connection, I'd be paying $300 a month (plus taxes!) for half a gigabit.

It's pretty clear that the Swedish model delivers more value and lower prices than the American way. And it's all made possible by a robust collection of municipal networks.

So why isn't America following the municipal path to high-speed bliss?

... it's complicated
Here's what happened in Sweden, in a nutshell.

As the 1990s drew to a close and the Internet started to become a big deal, Swedish consumers and businesses started thirsting for faster and more reliable connections. An industry emerged to serve this unmet need, much like anywhere else.

But there was a problem. Formerly government-owned telecom giant Telia had already installed a nationwide fiber-optic network and was unwilling to share network access with other operators. One by one, county and municipality leaders started drawing up their own plans for local high-speed networking -- and reaching out to one another to connect the separate networks into a nationwide loop.

This began with the larger cities, before spreading to suburbs and downright rural areas. Encouraged by the success of local leadership projects, the Swedish government started pumping additional funds into this expansion -- and regulating the newborn industry.

Take government funds, and you'll have to commit to opening up the network for others to use. This is crucial.

The fiber expansion is still going on, and slowing down as the return on investment shrinks when the fiber stretches into thinly populated markets. But slowing down is not the same thing as stopping development altogether.

Today, 57% of Swedish households have access to 100-megabit broadband services. Nearly 200 of Sweden's 290 municipalities offer a so-called city network, under public or private ownership but conforming to the same open-access principles.

The government aims to reach 90% of the population with 100-megabit broadband by 2020 and has approved $500 million of funds to support rural expansion over the next six years. Moreover, each one of the nation's 21 counties has a separate budget to coordinate these broadband expansion efforts.

City networks: Orange = municipal, black = private, gray = missing. Source: SSNF.org

The Swedish model today
That's the history and a snapshot of the current situation. The end result is that a majority of Swedes have direct access to a broadband infrastructure that was developed, funded, built, and supported by local and national government bodies. In a few places, the local electric power utility has played some or all of these roles -- but these tend to be run by the government anyhow.

This last-mile infrastructure and the connecting fiber loops are accessible to a variety of telecoms, cable service providers, and Internet specialists. All of them have equal access to the consumer-facing and core networks, on "equal and non-discriminatory terms."

The companies and government agencies that built these networks to begin with often sold consumer services at first. Today, that's incredibly rare, as third-party service operators have come to dominate the end-user market. Intense competition between them forces prices way down and gives the service providers incentive to develop new selling points for the same basic network access.

But again, all of these benefits spring from open access policies, where anybody can compete on equal terms.

And therein lies the rub.

This is why we can't have nice things!
The American broadband infrastructure grew from a very different place.

First, Sweden is about the size of California, with the population of North Carolina. With about 24 citizens per square kilometer, compared with America's 35, the population density is much thinner. Kind of like a scaled-up version of Mississippi.

The economic challenges of criss-crossing Sweden with fiber-optic broadband are very different from covering the New York cityscape or the big-sky vastness of Wyoming. But that's just a huge math problem, and not the biggest difference.

The real game-changers are political in nature. Funding and building a coast-to-coast broadband network would meet massive resistance in the tax-averse American market. And if tax dollars went into building the darn thing, why would the government then turn the network over to others, rather than drawing a profit from the huge investment?

Now, the early days of the Internet itself saw two American backbone networks develop much like the Swedish municipal networks are doing much later. The early ARPANET and NSFNET networks were built and operated by government agencies, before merging and then getting privatized in 1995. The commercial core network operators that emerged then still run the show today as Tier 1 networks, alongside a few later additions.

But things were different back then. Way different.

When commercial forces took control of America's Internet backbone, about 16 million global Internet users surfed 19,000 websites on primitive browsers like NCSA Mosaic, Netscape Navigator, or the text-based Lynx.

Today, 3 billion Internet users worldwide use smartphones and modern browsers to access over 1 billion websites -- and a ton of content available only to specialized apps.

The core network is no longer serving up a trickle of text and simple graphics to a microscopic niche market. The Internet has gone mainstream, including bandwidth hogs like online video and digital health services.

So the game has changed, while the fundamental business model hasn't. Commercial interests have built out the backbone networks we use today, and they rightly expect to see a decent long-term return on their investments. It's not about serving the community with low-cost, high-quality services. Serving investors sets up a very different incentive structure.

It all comes down to this:

The Swedish model is using public funds to create an Internet service that provides consumers and local businesses with affordable and powerful services. Turning a profit is a secondary consideration, if at all. This is true on several levels, from the nationwide backbone to local last-mile services.

The American model is powered by private, for-profit organizations. On the next level down, consumers are facing a Balkanized patchwork of cable, fiber, and DSL services with minimal competition and zero infrastructure sharing. Flooding or overriding this system with government support would be politically impossible, so we're stuck with this framework. That means focusing on profits over service quality, and there is no incentive at all to lower the cost to consumers.

Final words
The American status quo could still change, but not easily. Google   Fiber is throwing a wrench in the monopolistic pricing tendencies, as local telecoms and cable companies tend to introduce cheaper and faster Internet services wherever Google's services pop up.

Increased competition brings price pressure. Sweden has a lot of it, thanks to an open infrastructure and low profit expectations. American consumers have very little, for a variety of political and historical reasons. Google Fiber and similar upstarts can narrow the gap a little bit, but never the twain shall meet.

This $19 trillion industry could destroy the Internet
One bleeding-edge technology is about to put the World Wide Web to bed. And if you act right away, it could make you wildly rich. Experts are calling it the single largest business opportunity in the history of capitalism. The Economist is calling it "transformative." But you'll probably just call it "how I made my millions." Don't be too late to the party -- click here for one stock to own when the Web goes dark.

The article How Come My ISP Won't Increase Internet Speed and Lower My Bill, Like They Do in Sweden? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Anders Bylund owns Google A shares but holds no other position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends and owns Google (A and C shares). Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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With "Arrow" and "The Flash," Warner is Growing the DC Universe in Ways Marvel Still Won't Touch

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Grant Gustin stars in the series premiere for The Flash. Credit: The CW/ DC Entertainment.

Time Warner adds another element to the DC television universe tonight when The Flash premieres at 8 p.m. Eastern on The CW. Arrow returns for season 3 tomorrow night, adding to a DC Comics-influenced television lineup that already features Gotham on Fox. A fourth show, Constantine, is scheduled to premiere on Friday, Oct. 24, on NBC.


Interestingly, the build out isn't confined to TV. DC is also tightly integrating its programming with its comics. Whereas Marvel is winning mainstream audiences, DC is profiting by appealing directly to fanboys and fangirls.

A strategy straight out of the comic books
This isn't luck of the draw so much as a business strategy at work. While Disney is betting on Marvel Studios to produce action movies with mass market appeal, Warner is taking an integrated DC universe straight to comic book fans with the help of Arrow co-creators Andrew Kreisberg and Marc Guggenheim.

Kreisberg is writing Green Arrow with Ben Sokolowski. He also co-wrote the three-part The Flash: Season Zero miniseries, a digital prequel to tonight's premiere. Guggenheim scripted Arrow: Season 2.5, another three-part digital prequel. In a press release issued last week, DC said the titles "launched to great fanfare and sales" (via Comic Book Resources).

Marvel didn't release a similar preview for Marvel's Agents of SHIELD, which earned lukewarm ratings in returning two weeks ago. Specifically, SHIELD debuted to 5.98 million live viewers and a 2.1 rating in the key age 18-49 demographic -- in each case, sharp declines from last year's series premiere. Episode 2, "Heavy Is the Head," drew 5.05 million viewers for ABC.

By contrast, Nielsen said season 2 of Arrow pulled in an average of 3.28 million viewers to The CW, numbers that could improve when season 3 begins on Wednesday night. Social data puts Arrow second behind The Walking Dead on the comic book TV buzz-meter:


Mighty Marvel's strength is also its weakness
Why isn't Marvel using comics to boost Agents of SHIELD? Probably because Disney doesn't need AoS to be anything more than a marketing vehicle, as it was for Captain America: The Winter Soldier. A follow-up tie-in to Avengers: Age of Ultron seems likely, further fueling a franchise that has produced over $7 billion in worldwide theater ticket sales and an estimated $1.5 billion in gross profit. DC can't touch those numbers.

And yet I'm not sure it matters. After all, DC's television strategy is to use Arrow and The Flash to introduce a whole range of characters who exist in the DC universe but haven't enjoyed much (or any) screen time. Robbie Amell, brother of Arrow star Stephen Amell, will bring Firestorm to The Flash. Brandon Routh will bring the Atom to Arrow, which is also due for a movie tie-in of sorts when the assassin Ra's al Ghul makes an appearance. (Liam Neeson played the role in Batman Begins and The Dark Knight Rises.)

For DC and Warner, the variety of introductions could inform new stories that extend into the comics and boost sales there. At the very least, it creates an interconnected experience that is bound to be appealing to readers like me.

Look at Arrow. Last year, writer Jeff Lemire inserted actor David Ramsey's character, John Diggle, into the Green Arrow comic series. Kreisberg and Sokolowski introduced Emily Bett Rickards' character, Felicity Smoak, in the latest issue. Don't be surprised if DC follows up by announcing new comic book tie-ins to Gotham and Constantine at New York Comic Con, which starts Thursday at the Javits Center in Manhattan.

Disney and Marvel deserve all the kudos they're getting right now. But this is DC's week, and by the looks of it, it's going to be a big one.

Your cable company is scared, but you can get rich
You know cable's going away. But do you know how to profit? There's $2.2 trillion out there to be had. Currently, cable grabs a big piece of it. That won't last. And when cable falters, three companies are poised to benefit. Click here for their names. Hint: They're not Netflix, Google, and Apple.

Arrow, The CW's highest-rated show, kicks off season 3 on Wednesday night. Credit: The CW.


The article With "Arrow" and "The Flash," Warner is Growing the DC Universe in Ways Marvel Still Won't Touch originally appeared on Fool.com.

Tim Beyers is a member of the  Motley Fool Rule Breakers  stock-picking team and the Motley Fool Supernova Odyssey I mission. He owned shares of Apple, Google (A and C class), Netflix, Time Warner, and Walt Disney at the time of publication. Check out Tim's web home and portfolio holdings or connect with him on Google+Tumblr, or Twitter, where he goes by @milehighfool. You can also get his insights delivered directly to your RSS reader.The Motley Fool recommends Apple, Google (A and C shares), Netflix, and Walt Disney. The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple, Google (A and C class), Netflix, and Walt Disney. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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3 Reasons United Continental Holdings Inc.'s Stock Could Fall

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It's hard to make a case against United Continental Holdings , but in the interest of a more balanced view to go with my previous bullish article, I'm going to give it the old college try. Aside from the historical enormous volatility across the entire airline industry in terms of both fundamentals and stock prices, United Airlines may have a few warts unique to itself that you should keep an eye on. Here are three concerns.


Source:  United Airlines.

Concern 1: Ebola is no laughing matter
As Fools, we strive to educate, amuse, and enrich, but the subject of the deadly Ebola virus is no joke. There has been already at least one scare involving a passenger who flew two connecting United flights. He exhibited signs of the disease and was ultimately cleared, thank goodness, while the company rushed to contact "several hundred" passengers who were on the same flights.


But the incident reminds us how sensitive the public is to flying risks, and one of those risks is contracting disease. Often when something happens to a particular airline, even through no fault of its own, it ends up with a paranoid public and a negative image that ultimately hurts sales and profits. With United Airlines being the second biggest airline, there is a very real risk of further incidents and possible lasting damage to its reputation if further similar incidents occur.

The CDC says there could be as many as 1.4 million people affected worldwide by January with the Ebola virus. If so, that alone could keep many scared people out of the air and crowded spaces. That would affect the entire international airline industry, since people never know who sat on their seats before them and where those previous passengers were last. If nothing else, it may seem safer to stick with a regional airline.

Concern 2: Speaking of regional airlines ...
United Airlines is slowly getting out of the regional airline business. While the company is confident this is a wise strategic move aimed at greater long-term profits, there can be no certainty that will prove to be the case.

According to its most recent conference call, at the beginning of this year United Airlines had 8% of its overall capacity consisting of 50-seat and smaller aircraft. It is now targeting a reduction to 5% by the end of next year, with the hopes that the sacrifice of these revenues and profits will be made up for by easier overall logistics and ultimately lower costs for the rest of its planes sharing the same hubs.

Regional airlines such as Southwest Airlines , Allegiant Airlines , JetBlue Airways , and Hawaiian Airlines must be salivating. These four in particular have been rapidly growing sales and profits, and seeing United Airlines getting off their turf can only help them.

Is there perhaps a trend brewing involving travelers who prefer the smaller regional planes, perhaps for the ease of getting on and off and a better flight experience, at least among the public company players? Maybe United Airlines is making a mistake as it loses regional customers who may have later opted for trips on its bigger planes.

Concern 3: You might want to hedge your bets, since United isn't
All the talk in the world about fuel reduction, cost savings, and operational efficiency is great, but it might not have enough of an effect on United Airlines' ultimate cost: aircraft fuel. According to the company's SEC filings, aircraft fuel is the company's single largest expense. Luckily for United Airlines, oil and fuel prices have been in a tailspin lately, which makes things easier. For now.

The problem and concern is, what happens with fuel prices suddenly rise again? As of June 30, only 21% of its anticipated fuel requirements are hedged for the remainder of this year, 19% for next year, and less than 1% in 2016. As Fools, we tend to be long-term investors, and United Airlines isn't very well prepared in the near, medium, or long term for potential oil price shocks.

Perhaps even more concerning on that topic is the company's $2 billion in annual cost savings plan by 2017, which includes $1 billion in fuel savings. If United Airlines starts to fall shy of its stated goals, the temptation to reduce hedging and take a gamble may be even stronger as the market probably won't react too favorably to missed targets.

On that note, how can the company really give reliable guidance when it can't possibly know where fuel prices will be in the future, or if it isn't fully prepared to hedge against the worst? The vast majority of its go-forward fuel costs is wide-open exposed.

Foolish final thoughts
Overall, I'm a fan of United Continental Holdings stock, as I like what I perceive as a favorable risk-reward ratio, but there are very real risks and concerns that don't necessarily point to blue skies ahead. The airline business is already tough, and if just one thing goes wrong, sales or earnings could get pulverized.

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The article 3 Reasons United Continental Holdings Inc.'s Stock Could Fall originally appeared on Fool.com.

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Why This Accidental Landlord Gave Up and Sold at a Loss

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My wife and I have finally given up on being accidental landlords. We recently sold our North Carolina home for a huge loss -- despite the recent trend in rising home values across the country.

After my job compelled me to relocate my family out of state, we had decided to rent out our home instead of selling. So, why after nearly two years of holding on in hopes of seeing prices rebound, did we give up and lose $20,000 on the sale? The answer involves stomach ulcers, deadbeat tenants and the consistent loss of $300 a month.

Who Knew? I'm Actually Risk-Adverse

Turns out, I hadn't been honest with myself. I thought that I could handle risks. Like most investors, I like to think that I can stomach large swings in the stock market because I have decades until I retire.

I also thought that my ability to tolerate stock market risk-taking would translate to the world of real estate. It doesn't. They are two drastically different risk profiles. Sitting on stocks and mutual funds that are swinging wildly isn't that big a deal. You can take advantage of dollar-cost averaging and ride out the fluctuations.

I can't say the same for the real estate market. Each month, I spent hundreds of dollars on the portion of the mortgage payment that wasn't covered by my tenant's rent payments. And the value of my home wasn't rising.

I watched helplessly on Zillow (Z) as homes in my neighborhood sold for losses each month. Other sellers kept their homes on the market for nine to 12 months without reducing their asking prices, in the hopes of getting as much for them as they'd paid years before.

It's a double-edged sword that home sales are public record. When you're the buyer, you have a great deal of information at your fingertips. You know what was paid for a home. You know what other similar homes have sold for, and when the owner bought their home. But in your roles as seller, the transparency is brutal. And, in today's real estate market, the buyer still has all of the power.

I Needed a Happy Home Life

There's an old saying, "If mom ain't happy, ain't nobody happy." That's absolutely true in our household. And owning a home several states away was just too much for my wife to bear happily.

She was constantly worried about having the old mortgage plus the rent payment on the home we're now living in. Seeing the worry in my wife's face made being a landlord less fun.

I needed peace of mind and a happy home life, and I needed to provide those things for my wife as well. Blindly holding on to the house and my dream of being a landlord wasn't providing it. It was time to let the house go.

Deadbeat Renters Were Too Much to Take

It's one thing to pay a few hundred dollars out of your pocket every month to be competitive and get a renter into your home. It's a whole different kick in the pants when that renter stops paying.

Though we had saved for this eventuality, it was too much for us to pay our own rent and the mortgage. Between them, those payments quickly gobbled up my savings during the several months when the tenants weren't paying, and as the eviction proceedings dragged on through the court system.

It was in some respects a forgone conclusion that we'd have to sell our home. At some point, the negative cash flow gets too painful. It was better to sell the home before my savings account ran totally dry.

Sunk Costs

At some point, you have to realize that an investment is a sunk cost. The money that you've put into an investment shouldn't be a factor when you decide to get out of it. If the idea you had didn't pan out, you shouldn't try to hang on simply because of the money you've poured into it already. That's just throwing good money after bad.

At some point, you simply have to cut your losses. Turning our home into a rental property was a failed financial move. More fundamentally, we buying the home in the first place was a bad investment, given that we bought it in 2008 at the height of the real estate market. We held on in the hopes that the real estate market would come back. It still hasn't in our area.

Being a landlord wasn't as fun as I thought it would be. I had this dream when I was in college of being a real estate mogul like Donald Trump. I wanted to buy a home in every town my job took me to and then rent it out instead of selling after we left.

Little did I know that neither I nor my wife had the heart to be landlords. It was a costly mistake. Dave Ramsey often refers to errors like that as "stupid tax." He's right. We're not cut out to be real estate moguls. We're even done pretending that we are homeowners, at least until we move for the last time.

Are you an accidental landlord? Have you enjoyed it? How do you keep going after a set back? Have you ever thought of just giving in and selling?

Hank Coleman is the publisher of the popular personal finance blog Money Q&A, where he answers readers' tough money questions. Follow him on Twitter @MoneyQandA.

 

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