Supply and demand are what typically fuel oil prices. However, market fundamentals aren't the only factors at play. Speculators, like hedge funds and other big money investors, play a role in the price of oil as well. They can push it up past market fundamentals or, as they have recently, cause it to plunge -- the latest dip sent global oil benchmark Brent down 25% to around $85 per barrel, and U.S. oil benchmark WTI even lower.

Brent Crude Oil Spot Price data by YCharts

Energy traders are betting that oil prices will keep falling. In a recent Bloomberg article, Citigroup's global head of energy strategy, Seth Kleinman, was quoted as saying that, "several big, smart commodity hedge funds said oil is going to zero." He went on to say, "they are being somewhat dramatic, but they were incredibly bearish."

Bearish oil bets are growing
These speculators are increasingly putting their money on bigger bets that oil prices will keep plunging. Over the past month, hedge funds and other large speculators lowered their net-long positions in WTI by 4.8% according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC. Meanwhile, short positions in oil jumped almost 8% in the past month. These two factors likely played a role in accelerating oil's plunge in recent weeks as it went into bear market territory.

Speculators have long had an impact on the price of oil, and even OPEC has come out to blame speculators for oil's most recent decline. In its bi-monthly bulletin the organization said that, "the actions of speculators are again behind much of the price decline." Still, OPEC isn't planning on cutting production at the moment, as it can handle lower oil prices while speculators make a few bucks on the downside. After all, let's not forget that in the past OPEC made quite a lot of money when speculators sent oil prices spiking higher, as in July of 2008. So it's not ready to break the speculators just yet. 

How low could speculators push oil prices?
There is certainly reasons to be bearish on oil prices, at least in the short term. Oil production in the U.S. is up to a 28-year high, while demand will be lower this year than it was in 2012. With so much oil coming out of one of the world's top oil consumers, it's no surprise that oil prices are finally falling.

How far oil prices will go before hitting bottom is anyone's guess. However, oil producers in the U.S. will likely cut spending to drill new wells if oil prices stay at their current levels for too long. Meanwhile, if oil prices fall to around $70 per barrel, producers will likely make even deeper cuts. Finally, oil prices in the $60 range mean that the U.S. oil boom would likely screech to a halt as producers dramatically cut spending, and jobs too. This is all assuming OPEC doesn't cut its production first.  

However, leaving OPEC out of the equation, it is unlikely that oil would go below $60 per barrel and stay there for too long. The spending cuts by American oil companies will have an even more immediate impact, because oil production from shale wells declines rapidly. Take a look at the following chart of oil production from the Eagle Ford shale in Texas.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

All the money producers are pouring into the Eagle Ford shale right now is expected to yield production from new wells of 154,000 barrels of oil per day. However, net production is rising by just 35,000 barrels per day, because the production from previously drilled wells is expected to decline by 119,000 barrels per day. So once producers start to cut spending, production from new wells will dry up and the change in legacy production will eat into production.

Oil will never be free
Because of this dynamic it won't take long before oil production in the U.S. begins to fall. This would work to stabilize oil prices in the short to medium term, and likely cause oil prices to start heading higher in the longer term. So don't bank on oil ever being free. Instead, get used to the fact that oil prices, while volatile, will likely always push higher. 

When it comes to finances, "fee" is a like a three-letter bad word, the complete opposite of what personal finance is supposed to be all about -- saving money and not being penalized for it. If you're on time with your loan or credit payments, and keep within the terms of your deposit requirements (like avoiding early CD withdrawals), why pay unnecessary fees that drain your bank account?

The simple answer is that there's actually an upside to paying some banking fees -- the ones that will benefit your finances in the long run. If you've been avoiding fees at all costs, take a look at these five that are worth the cost.

Related: How to Get Overdraft Fees Waived

1. Checking Account Overdraft Protection
You walked into Starbucks for a latte, but logging into your checking account later that day, you discover that you paid $35 for it! What's worse is that it's not an error -- you just didn't have enough available money in your account to cover the purchase and got hit with an overdraft charge.

While you should never let your balance get that low, you should sign up for overdraft protection with your bank or credit union. Be prepared to pay a monthly overdraft protection fee -- typically $10 to $12 -- which can add up to over $120 per year; that said, it's the lesser of two evils in this case, especially if it means never incurring another insufficient funds penalty.

Also remember that your banking provider is required by law to give you details on this option.

Related: Everything You Need to Know About Overdraft Protection

2. Credit Card Balance Transfer Fees
Credit card debt is no joke. Rack up too high of an outstanding balance and you could be paying it down forever, since the average card interest rate can climb well into the double digits. Opting for a balance transfer allows you to move your debt to another card; many card providers even let you pay off your balance interest free for a set period, typically one year to 18 months.

The catch is that you'll need to pay a one-time balance transfer fee ranging, usually about 3 to 5 percent of your total balance. Example: $10,000 in credit card debt transferred to another card can trigger a 5-percent transfer fee of $500. It's still cheaper than debt. Make the sacrifice, pay the fee, and stop spending years and years paying double-digit interest with no end in sight.

3. Credit Card Annual Fees
You've just been approved for a higher-end rewards card and you've got the money to back up your credit line. But you cringe at the thought of the annual fee attached to it. Mike Jelinek, a contributor to ClarkHoward.com, endorses the payment of annual fees on rewards cards, since the fee can pay itself off as a form of return.

"Paying an annual fee for a credit card typically means you'll get more benefits. Whether or not it's truly worth it comes down to your purchasing decisions and spending habits," Jelinek wrote. " In most cases, my research has shown that the annual fee is worth the extra rewards."

Though the range is wide (anywhere from $25 to $450, depending on the card), paying the annual fee can be worth it, since it can offer benefits like travel insurance, airline points, reduced interest, extended warranties and loss protection.

4. Mortgage Discount Points
They call it fixed mortgage loan interest, but nothing is ever really fixed when there's a potential discount involved. New homeowners can purchase points and receive about a 0.25% interest rate deduction for each point bought, according to the Dough Roller.

FOX Business notes that most mortgage points cost about 1 percent of the home's loan amount; so, if your loan is for $100,000, one point costs $1,000 (for 0.25% reduced), two points for $2,000 (for 0.5% reduced) and so on.

5. Refinance Fees
There are several fees involved in the refinancing process, but the expenses are manageable if it means landing a newer, lower interest rate, fixed for the next 10 to 20 years. These costs can amount to several hundred dollars for application, origination, document prep, appraisal and title examination fees, among some others.

Not all fees are created equal. Not all fees are bad, either. First weigh the pros and cons and jot down a cost analysis to see if the expense is worth the reward. With careful consideration and budgeting of fees, you can find a way to pay your way to a better financial life.

This article originally appeared on Go Banking Rates.

Apple has convinced plenty of companies that HealthKit -- its unifying platform for fitness apps, wearable devices, and electronic health records -- will be the next big thing in mobile health. By synchronizing all the data from various sources into a single Health app on iOS 8, Apple hopes to compile the most complete digital profile of a user's day-to-day health ever.

However, Fitbit, the top fitness band maker in the world, said earlier this month it does "not currently have plans to integrate with HealthKit." That was surprising, since all signs indicated that Fitbit -- which controls 69% of the global fitness bands market -- would be one of Apple's most valuable allies.

The Fitbit Flex. Source: Fitbit.

Apple previously showed a picture of a Fitbit during a HealthKit presentation. During an interview with MobiHealthNews, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center CIO John Halamka discussed Fitbit's potential uses with HealthKit in hospitals. Even Jawbone, Fitbit's top rival, discussed the possibilities of integrating its app with Fitbit's via HealthKit.

Shortly after Fitbit's statement, Re/code reported that Apple would drop Fitbit products from its retail stores. Whether this was in response to Fitbt's unwillingness to jump aboard the HealthKit bandwagon is unclear, but it certainly seems the companies are gearing up for battle. Therefore, let's look at why Fitbit isn't eager to join forces with Apple, and what its defiance could mean for the future of the tech giant's mobile health efforts.

Why Fitbit doesn't want to team up with Apple
Fitbit isn't eager to team up with Apple, because many popular apps -- including MyFitnessPal, MapMyRun, Walgreen's Balance Rewards, and Microsoft's HealthVault -- already pull data from its trackers. Fitbit's main app is a full-featured dashboard for tracking daily activity and connecting with friends.

In other words, the company has already constructed a mobile health ecosystem on its own, which would fall apart if HealthKit lures away those allies. Fitbit's app would also seem redundant if all of its health data appeared on Apple's Health app. If that happens, Fitbit could be reduced to a single fitness tracker without a mobile health ecosystem. Moreover, it would fragment its user base among iOS, Android, and Windows Phone users, since HealthKit only runs on iOS 8.

Apple's upcoming Apple Watch, which is due to arrive next year, is also a dangerous competitor. The $350 device will offer the same health tracking features as the Fitbit Flex, plus a heart rate monitor -- a critical next-generation feature that Fitbit's bands lack. Meanwhile, the cost for manufacturing a fitness band such as the Flex is plunging -- Xiaomi recently released its $13 Mi Band in China, which offers similar features to a $100 Fitbit Flex.

Faced with competition at both ends of the market, Fitbit needs to either launch more smartwatch-like trackers to compete against the Apple Watch or drop its price to counter the rise of cheaper fitness bands. Neither scenario suggests the company should join forces with Apple.

Apple doesn't have the upper hand... yet
Apple might be growing into an 800-pound gorilla in the mobile health market, but HealthKit is still a young and unproven system.

Apple needs support from wearables makers to get the ball rolling until it releases the Apple Watch. Unfortunately, with Fitbit refusing to play along, Apple loses a substantial part of the market. In terms of smartwatches, Samsung is currently the market leader, and it obviously doesn't have plans to synchronize the six watches it unveiled over the past year to iPhones or HealthKit. According to Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, Samsung controlled 43% of the U.S. smartwatch market in July, while Strategy Analytics estimated that it controlled 71% of the global market during the first quarter.

Apple hopes the Apple Watch will disrupt the wearables market in the same way the iPhone and iPad respectively did to the smartphone and tablet markets. Unfortunately, public opinion isn't on Apple's side. In a recent survey by Toluna QuickSurveys, 66% of Americans weren't interested in the Apple Watch, 14% were undecided, and only 33% would "definitely" or "probably" buy one. Meanwhile, an ON World survey found that only 8% of consumers were willing to pay over $299 for a health-tracking smartwatch -- an ominous sign for the $350 device.

This means that if the Apple Watch bombs, other companies could follow Fitbit's example and maintain their sovereignty in the iOS ecosystem with independent apps. Other fitness app makers, seeing how Fitbit still dominates the fitness band market, could then prioritize Fitbit integration over HealthKit integration.

The Foolish takeaway
Analysts love to highlight the huge growth potential of the wearables and mobile health market. ON World projects that smartwatch shipments will soar from 4 million in 2013 to 330 million in 2018. Grand View Research believes  the entire mobile health market -- including apps and wearables -- will grow from $1.95 billion in 2012 to $49 billion by 2020.

If those forecasts are to be believed, then Apple's HealthKit could be well positioned to capitalize from that growth. But without support from wearables makers like Fitbit -- which might see the platform as oppressive instead of innovative -- the platform could face a lot of trouble realizing its full potential.

Photo credit: Claus Rebler.

Columbus Day was celebrated throughout America on Monday, with many schools, public offices, and companies closing their doors to recognize Christopher Columbus, the explorer that famously sailed with the ships Niña, Pinta, and Santa Maria to the American continents in 1492.

What does it mean to "Columbus" something?
Columbus' name has taken on a different meaning recently, according to NPR. Those who "Columbus" something "discover" something that's always existed -- like Columbus "discovered" the Americas. You've probably already "Columbused" a number of foods, holidays, or styles of dress from other cultures.

Experiencing cultural diversity can enrich lives and give common ground to people from different countries, races and backgrounds. All that can be learned from different cultures extends into financial values and money practices as well. Around the globe, the way money is thought about, handled, saved and spent varies greatly from what might be the norm in the U.S.

Related: World Interest Rates: Which Country Has the Highest Interest Rates

5 smart money strategies from around the world
The United States has earned a reputation for being materialistic, with a capitalistic culture geared toward consumerism. To find a different way of viewing things, GOBankingRates took a look around the world to find cultural differences around money that could help Americans stretch their dollars further. This Columbus Day, celebrate by Columbusing one of these five money practices or beliefs. (Hopefully you'll give full credit where credit is due, however.)

1. China: Save, save, save
When it comes to personal finance, the Chinese have one mantra: save. There is a strong culture of saving in China, Xin Lu told Wisebread.

"Frugality is really an integral part of the Chinese culture," she said. "My Chinese relatives regularly save 50 to 60% of their income and it feels normal to me that I save as much as them."

This is evident in China's savings rate, which is one of the highest in the world. China's gross national savings is estimated to be more than 51% of its GDP this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, almost three times higher than the United States, which is a little over 17%.

This savings habit, combined with increases in income, contributed to household bank deposits growing every year from 1990 to 2003, according to a study from Rick Harbaugh, associate professor of business economics at Indiana University. The habit of personal savings is still strong, with Forbes reporting most Chinese save around 30% of their income.

Americans would do well to get their savings rate closer to China's. The U.S. personal savings rate has hovered roughly around 5% for 2014, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. But personal finance experts recommend saving at least 10% of your income — some even say you should save as much as 20%.

2. Mexico: "Tanda," or savings pool
If you have trouble getting motivated to save on your own, try a community savings system like the Mexican "Tanda."

Tandas, or savings pools, are a notable money custom prominent in Mexican culture. This practice has even made its way to the U.S., and can be found among many Hispanic immigrant communities, according to the Latin American Herald Tribune, as well as online through sites like eMoneyPool.com.

Savings pools are an incentivized savings system in which all participants pay a set amount during a month into a pool of money. The pooled money is then awarded to a different participant each round.

For those having trouble saving, the savings pools offers two main benefits over simply depositing into a savings account. First, it keeps money out of convenient reach. Second, it provides an important social and community incentive to "save" each month by paying in. And this is enforced by the risk of "losing" the money paid in -- better to put in this month's contribution than to skip this month and lose all contributions up to this point.

And when the tanda lands on you, it's a very nice payday -- ranging from $1,000 up to $10,000, according to the Tribune.

3. Kenya: "Harambee," or crowdfunding
Crowdfunding has become a hot topic in the U.S. recently, but usually as a way companies, projects or start-ups can raise initial funding. A Kenyan "harambee" is technically a form of crowdfunding, but the spirit of the tradition is much different from the U.S.

Harambee means "all pull together" in Swahili, according to the Harambee Institute, and is a "tradition of community self-help events, e.g. fundraising or development activities."

JC Niala of Beyond-Motherhood.com said that a harambee is often used to crowdfund even at an individual level -- to pay for big life events or cover the emergencies of life. "People have parties and get-togethers or even just send round forms to help pay for medical expenses and college education, among numerous other things," Niala said.

One way to use this principle in the U.S. would be to ask for help. Ask your lender for an extension or to forgive a portion of your principle. Ask for cash gifts at big life events like graduations or weddings. Or find other ways that you and others in your community can "all pull together" to barter or trade to save each other money.

4. Germany: Pay cash, not credit
Germany famously has "a deep-seated aversion to debt and an emphasis on responsibility," according to The Associated Press. In short, Germans by far prefer to pay cash.

This preference for cash is so pronounced that they use one of the most valuable currency denominations available anywhere in the world -- the €500 note, worth around $600. In fact, only one in three of Germans even has a credit card.

The U.S., on the other hand, loves to charge. Americans are twice as likely to have a credit card as Germans, with 62% owning a credit card. The average U.S. cardholder has three credit cards, reports Debt.org, and among households with credit card debt, $15,607 is the average balance, according to NerdWallet.

With a typical credit card rate of 18%, cardholders would pay thousands in interest a year on an outstanding balance of $15,000. Think of how much would be saved if we could adopt the German view that cash is king.

Related: The World's 5 Richest Misers

5. Japanese: Respect for money
Japanese have a respect for money in all its forms, but like Germans, they have an especially high regard for cash. In Japan, all forms of currency are handled with respect and kept clean and crisp. According to The Economist, in Japan you can even buy anti-bacterial wallets that press and sterilize bills.

This respect is reflected in the customs around giving cash as a gift. Cash is a common gift in Japan, especially at life events like weddings and funerals. It is good etiquette to use crisp, new bills -- not old or wrinkled ones -- and to place the cash in special envelopes that have a red tie around them.

While this respect for cash is largely due to the high importance of cleanliness in Japanese culture, it also helps to underline the value of money. If a person treats cash the same way he treats trash or disposables, wadding up dollar bills like used tissue, he would probably be more willing to treat money as disposable and spend unwisely. But treating cash with respect will remind a saver of the money's value and help him resist the urge to spend.

This article originally appeared on GoBankingRates.

Young people see things differently from their elders. There have always been numerous reasons for this, but today one of the most prominent may be the challenging economic picture faced by people at the start of their careers.

To determine which places are best suited to people at that point, MoneyRates.com looked at a combination of economic and lifestyle factors -- eight of them in total -- to determine the best and worst states (plus the District of Columbia) for young adults.

The best places in the U.S. for young people
Here are the factors MoneyRates.com examined for this study:

• Employment for people aged 20 to 24.
• The youthfulness of a state's population, based on the percentage of residents age 20 to 24.
• Affordability of in-state college tuition, based on figures from the College Board.
• The availability of rental accommodations.
• The median cost of rentals.
• Degree of access to high-speed broadband.
• The number of bars and nightclubs per capita.
• The number of fitness facilities per capita, based on tallies from the International Health, Racquet & Sportsclub Association.

Based on their rankings in the above categories, these are the best states for young adults in 2014:

1. North Dakota. If it surprises you to see North Dakota ranked as the best state for young adults, consider this: It has a higher proportion of 20- to 24-year-olds than any other state, so it must be doing something to attract young people. Actually, it's doing a number of things -- North Dakota has the lowest unemployment rate for young adults, and the fourth cheapest rents. However, the appeal of North Dakota is not all about economics. The state also has the second-highest number of nightspots per capita.
2. Iowa. The main strengths for Iowa in this study were its top-10 rankings in youth employment, rental affordability and the number of nightspots per capita. The state's only below-average ranking was for rental availability, as the vacancy rate is relatively low. A significant improvement in broadband access helped the state climb from fifth last year to the No. 2 slot this year.
3. Nebraska. The strongest characteristic for Nebraska is having one of the lowest unemployment rates for young adults, and it also ranks in the top 10 for rental affordability.
4. South Dakota. Though it slipped a couple of notches from last year, South Dakota still made the top 10 thanks largely to being among the five best states for youth employment and rental affordability. South Dakota is also a good state for staying healthy, with one of the higher levels of fitness facilities per capita in the nation.
5. Wyoming. This state has the lowest in-state tuition costs for four-year public colleges, and also ranks in the top 10 in young adult employment and nightspots per capita. These strengths were enough to help the state overcome a poor ranking for broadband access.
6. Montana. Despite ranking in the bottom 10 for rental availability and broadband access, Montana was able to reach sixth place overall because of its top-10 rankings in five categories: employment for young adults, affordability of tuition, rental costs, nightspots per capita and fitness facilities per capita.
7. Oklahoma. This state has one of the lowest rates of unemployment for young adults, which is good because its population is also one of the nation's youngest. Other strengths were top-10 rankings for rental availability and affordability. As good as the economic factors are, Oklahoma may not be the state for you if you like to party -- it has one of the lowest numbers of nightspots per capita.
8. Kansas. The strongest category for Kansas is a top-10 ranking for broadband access. It is above average in most other categories, though it comes up short for nightlife and the number of fitness facilities per capita.
9. Louisiana. You might think that Louisiana made the top 10 on the strength of its nightlife, but it actually ranked higher for health clubs per capita than for nightspots. Be advised, though, that this is not the best state for finding a job -- the one category where Louisiana was below average was in employment for young adults.
10. District of Columbia. The District gets top marks for youthfulness and access to broadband, and had the second highest number of fitness facilities per capita. The main drawback is that rents are the second-highest in the nation.

States like North Dakota and Iowa may not be the first to come to mind when you think of youth culture. However, these days things like being able to find a job and afford an apartment should not be taken for granted, and those are some of the things that make life much more welcoming to young adults in the states listed above.

This article originally appeared on MoneyRates.com.

Realted links:

Image of Coke cup on a rail by Leo Hidalgo under Creative Commons license.

During the last four weeks, the stock market decided to forgive all of The Coca-Cola Company's  recent sins. As the S&P 500 index declined by more than 6%, and volatility returned from a prolonged vacation, investors suddenly remembered the affection they had for a cash flow titan with the most recognized brand on earth, and a dividend yield approaching 3%. Coke stock not only held its ground, but managed to gain a couple of percentage points, reversing its trend of lagging the S&P for most of 2014. The divergence is pronounced:

KO data by YCharts

This week, investors will return to reality after Coca-Cola releases earnings on Tuesday before the market open. Will the company's third quarter of 2014 give buyers a reason to continue to flock to its shares? Or will attention refocus on the hindrances to Coke's stock price over the last two years? Below are three key issues which will help to decide sentiment either way.

Will Coke buck its net revenue trend?
As I discussed in a recent article, Coca-Cola's top-line has stalled in recent years, and this is one of the most vexing problems the company faces. After peaking in 2012 at $48 billion, annual revenue has declined more than $1 billion -- the company recorded $46.9 billion on its books in 2013. During the first two quarters of this year, Coca-Cola's revenue of $23.2 billion represents a decline of 2.7% versus the prior year.

In the third quarter of 2013, Coke's revenue came in at $12.0 billion, and investors will be looking for at least this number on the top line. The company should have a decent chance of hitting this mark, as its summer "Share A Coke" campaign, in which consumers could purchase personalized Coke bottles, was apparently quite successful. According to the Wall Street Journal, during June, July, and August of this year, the promotion spurred a 0.4% rise in U.S. soft drink volumes -- the first time in eleven years volumes didn't decline.

Cash flow under scrutiny
If Coca-Cola does manage to break its trend of shrinking revenue, it will do so on the strength of an increased marketing spend. Earlier this year, management announced its goal to increase Coca-Cola's marketing budget by $1 billion between now and 2016. Yet higher marketing expenditures to stabilize soft drink sales, coupled with margin pressure from other sources including currency headwinds (discussed below), may put a squeeze on Coke's tremendous cash flow.

During the first half of 2014, Coke's operating cash flow increased handily versus the prior year, from $4.0 to $4.5 billion. However, this was largely propelled by working capital changes of $580 million. Investors will be watching this period's operating cash flow for any signs of deterioration. Some mild retracement is to be expected over the next few quarters, as Coke invests in stabilizing sweetened carbonated beverages such as brand Coke and brand Diet Coke. But any significant tailing off will be an early clue that the task of propping up these "sparkling" beverages won't be easy or quick.

Will the strong dollar undermine Coke's profits?
There are few companies in existence which can claim as wide a footprint as Coca-Cola, which sells its products through a distribution network that spans more than 200 countries. Yet this competitive advantage has also become something of a weight on the company's recent results.

Much of the revenue decline discussed above can be traced back to a trend of currency depreciation against the U.S. dollar in the various countries in which Coke does business. Take the first half of this year for example: on a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) basis, Coke's revenue declined by nearly 3%. But on a currency neutral basis, that is, if you remove the effects of currency fluctuations when converting Coke's sales back to dollars, revenue was actually flat. 

For the long-term investor, it's important to invest in companies which show revenue and profit increases after all currency effects are accounted for. This is a goal that Coke may struggle with in the near term. The company has already recorded a negative impact of $268 million on income before taxes through June of this year, due to Venezuelan currency devaluation. Other countries whose currencies are losing ground quickly against the dollar, and which could pressure Coke's profit and loss statement, include Argentina and Russia.

Coke billboard in Khabarovsk, Russia. Image by Sharon Hahn Darlin under Creative Commons license.

Coke has a bit of a built-in buffer against currency slippage, in that it still derives about 46% of revenue from North America, primarily designated in U.S. dollars. Arch rival Pepsi, which has a similarly global business, and also has a revenue concentration in North America, recently reported third quarter results that beat expectations. Nevertheless, don't be surprised if Coca-Cola's management blames currency woes for its results: the U.S. dollar gained nearly 7.75% against a basket of other major currencies during the three months Coke will report on tomorrow.

A final note: one phenomenon that could trump all the earnings factors above would be a jump in the sales of non-sparkling, or "still" beverages. These are the bottled waters, juices, energy drinks, coffees, and teas that Coke has ramped up in recent years to stem losses from its carbonated beverages. I recently discussed the potential of these drinks in Coke's massive portfolio here. This side of Coke's business represents its best growth opportunity. Any positive surprises in still beverages will give investors a reason to continue the love they've shown for these shares over the last month.

After a monstrous bull run of late, the stock market finally started to pullback. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index , for instance, fell by nearly 7% last week alone:

Even so, it's important to keep the magnitude of this week's drop in perspective. This leading biotech index is still up by 28% over the past year, and the correction among healthcare stocks in the second quarter has been far steeper than that:

As a value investor, I am always keen on buying my favorite stocks at discounted prices. Honestly, though, I haven't been buying much lately because prices have gotten ahead of fundamentals, in my view. And despite the drop across the board during the week, prices, to me, still appear to be on the high side. 

With this in mind, I would strongly consider buying Acadia Pharmaceuticals , Gilead Sciences , and NPS Pharmaceuticals, if the market goes into a full blown crash. Here's why. 

Acadia Pharmaceuticals has a mega blockbuster on its hands
For me to buy a stock as prices plummet, I have to be reasonably comfortable that the company's core business prospects are going to be strong over the long haul. Acadia fits that bill nicely, in my opinion.

My investing thesis in this stock centers around Acadia's experimental treatment for Parkinson's disease psychosis, or PDP, called Nuplazid (pimavanserin). This is a condition with really no treatment options beyond supportive care, which is why the Food and Drug Administration recently bestowed a "breakthrough therapy" designation upon Nuplazid. Acadia is planning to submit Nuplazid's New Drug Application to the FDA before year's end, putting it on track for a potential approval by mid-2015.  

Given Nuplazid's strong late-stage trial results and the need for new therapies for PDP, I think the regulatory risk is minimal going forward, making this stock's value proposition worth checking out. Acadia presently sports a market cap of roughly $2.5 billion, yet experts believe Nuplazid could see peak sales in excess of $3 billion. While I am not a huge fan of speculating about forward P/E ratios based on experimental drugs, Nuplazid's huge commercial potential, compared to Acadia's market cap, has this stock at the top of my watch list. 

Gilead Sciences is a no-brainer if prices continue to slide
Because of its record setting hepatitis C drug Sovaldi and its new teammate, Harvoni, Gilead should easily see its revenue double this year compared to 2013. And despite its share price climbing over 50% this year (it was higher before this pullback), industry experts have Gilead shares trading at a forward P/E ratio of a mere 10. While the likely approval of competing therapies may cut into Harvoni's commercial potential somewhat, Gilead also offers investors a handful of new HIV and cancer drugs to pick up any slack. In short, this stock looks like its only at the beginning of a long growth trajectory. Any further price dips would therefore make this stock a huge bargain, in my opinion.

Orphan drugmaker NPS Pharmaceuticals might have the highest upside
I am closely watching NPS Pharmaceuticals during this correction for two reasons. First, the upcoming target action date for the company's experimental long-term treatment of Hypoparathyroidism, Natpara, is close at hand (Oct. 24). Natpara's approval would give the company two commercially available orphan drugs, with Gattex for short bowel syndrome being the other.

These two drugs together are expected to generate about $500 million in peak sales for NPS. Although most orphan drugmakers trade at mind-boggling premiums, this scenario would have the stock trading at only five times peak sales at current levels. Moreover, this rough valuation doesn't factor in the company's other clinical prospects.

Secondly, Shire has reportedly been interested in buying NPS for some time, and may pursue a deal after AbbVie decided to reconsider its tender offer this week. Given Shire's history of buying orphan drugmakers and its desire to build out a rare disease portfolio, this is a deal that makes a lot of sense. The sticking point, to me, seems to be the massive premium NPS' board would likely want for the company. 

All told, I don't think NPS shares are an outstanding bargain right now, but my interest would be peaked if shares moved south with the broader market. 

Foolish wrap-up
The stock market hasn't crashed -- yet. So, I think it's a good idea to have a list of stocks to buy for the long-term in the event a crash does come to fruition. Because of their stellar growth potentials over the long-haul, I think Acadia, Gilead, and NPS are all worth a deeper look.  

There is arguably no other sector of the stock market in which the interests of investors and management are more out of whack than with mortgage real estate investment trusts. Companies are surprisingly open about this fact.

Here's an example from American Capital Agency's 2013 annual filings: "[W]hile our stockholders bear the risk of our future equity issuances ... diluting the value of their stock holdings in us, the compensation payable to our Manager will increase as a result of future issuances of our equity securities."

The idea that management can boost its pay by diluting company stock absolutely blew me away, and this isn't unique to one company. Rather than being paid for performance, most mREITs are externally managed. This means managers receive a flat fee based on total shareholders' equity. 

However, because mREITs pay out 90% of their earnings in dividends, they can't grow equity like normal companies. Instead, the only way for management to increase its pay is for the value of assets to increase -- something executives have little control over -- or by issuing new shares of stock.

Everything about this smells, and I was sure I would find managers carelessly issuing stock despite its damaging effect on shareholders. I was wrong.

Buffett explains it best
In Warren Buffett's 2014 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, he compares the stock market to a moody farmer yelling out how much he would pay for Buffett's farm. Since Buffett knows exactly what the farm is worth, when the farmer bids too much he sells, and when the bid is too little he holds. 

Over the past five years, there have been some good and bad opportunities for Annaly Capital Management  and American Capital Agency to sell new shares of stock.

At the top left, both companies were trading above book value. This means investors are willing to pay more for the company than it was actually worth. While selling new shares means each individual share represents a smaller percent of the company, Annaly and American Capital Agency can use the cash to buy assets that grow earnings. Essentially, you own a smaller piece of a more profitable pie.

In the bottom right, the companies are selling for less than they were worth. In this case, shareholders receive a greater benefit from companies buying back shares. This reduces share count and increases value per share.

Conflict of interest 
While it's great for shareholders, buying back shares reduces a company's total equity and decreases management's compensation. Surprisingly, management of both REITs have proven more than willing to take one for the team. 

Going public in 2009 -- as opposed to 1997 for Annaly -- is why American Capital Agency's share growth looks dramatically larger. 

With that said, when issuing shares was in everyone's best interest, 2010 to the end of 2012, share count grew. However, as Annaly and American Capital Agency slipped below book value the selling of shares came to an immediate halt. In fact, in the first two quarters of 2014, Annaly and American Capital Agency's total shares declined 5% and 7%, respectively. 

What it all means
This is a story about misperceiving incentives. On the surface, management has seemingly everything to gain from neglecting the interests of shareholders. In the long term, however, investors will not continue to fund a company that doesn't take care of its shareholders. So, perhaps, the interests of management and investors are more aligned than I assumed, and this is something shareholders should feel good about.  

Source: StockMonkeys.com

Not all dividend stocks are created equal. Some offer monstrous 10% yields or more, but their share prices dwindle with each passing year.

With that in mind, I have identified two dividend stocks that offer above-average yields and have characteristics that suggest they should be safer than most massive yielders.

A niche New York bank
New York Community Bancorp  is one of the highest-yielding banks, and arguably one of the safest.

The bank focuses on lending to multifamily investors in the New York City area, where rents are seemingly always on the rise and demand for housing is permanently strong. Due to the underlying characteristics of the real estate market, the bank's credit metrics are often near the top of the industry, even during the depths of the financial crisis.

The stock is no slouch, though. Today's buyers will pay about 16 times last year's earnings. But because the bank pays out almost all of its income each year, the stock yields a respectable 6.7% dividend.

Be advised, though, that this won't be a highflier. Because it pays out almost all of its earnings, there is little room for growth over time. Shareholders have enjoyed the same $0.25 quarterly dividend since 2004. But when it comes to safety, New York Community Bancorp's history as a conservative lender and operator makes it a stable stock for your income portfolio.

A federation of free cash flow
Federated Investors  also looks appealing, even though its biggest business isn't contributing to the bottom line.

Federated Investors is an asset manager. It collects fees for managing more than $358 billion in client funds. The bulk of its business comes from the fixed-income side: 86% of its assets under management can be found in bond and money market investments.

Hamstrung by low rates, Federated Investors has voluntarily waived fees on its money market funds. These waivers cost the company about $30 million per quarter -- lost pre-tax income it has passed up since the fourth quarter of 2008.

Despite this weakness, Federated Investors is highly profitable. The company trades at about 20 times last year's earnings, but only at about 12 times last year's free cash flow. And the share yield of 3.5% is attractive in the current low-rate environment.

If rates rise, Federated Investors should be able to end its waivers, juicing profitability. But even if low rates persist, the company's valuation and sufficient dividend give investors reason to wait patiently. 

Las Vegas Sands has been the leader in its industry by a wide margin for the last few quarters when it comes to revenue and earnings, both actual and percent growth year over year. In Q2, Las Vegas Sands led the industry. It came in ahead of Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts International in earnings, just as it did in Q1 and throughout 2013. While Sands is the only one to have reported Q3 earnings so far, I expect its income growth will beat that of MGM and Wynn.

Las Vegas Sands is also investing heavily in its future growth to ensure that it remains on top for years to come. With construction of a new resort underway in Macau, applications filed in South Korea, and the possibility of a new resort in Japan, here is how Las Vegas Sands might be investing up to $15 billion in its future.

The Parisian promises to be an impressive resort with a 50% scaled Eiffel Tower. Photo: Las Vegas Sands

The next best thing in Macau
Las Vegas Sands already derives 88% of its total global revenue from Asia, with Macau properties contributing close to 60% of the company's total revenue. The Cotai Strip, where each of the major gaming companies are building new resorts that are slated to be opened in the next 12-24 months, is already dominated by Sands holdings. 

Las Vegas Sands is spending $2.7 billion on its newest resort, The Parisian, which is slated to open in late 2015 and early 2016. This massive integrated resort, featuring 3,000 hotel rooms and suites, around 450 gaming tables, 2,500 slots, a retail mall, and a replica of the Eiffel Tower at 50% scale, is sure to be an impressive new addition in Macau. Adding more room capacity than any of the other new resorts coming to Cotai will help to drive more revenue for Las Vegas Sands as Macau's mass market segment increases over the coming years.

Across from the Sands Cotai, the Parisian will help Las Vegas Sands continue to dominate the Cotai Strip. Photo by the author.

The next stop could be South Korea
While Macau is a bet on the massive market of Chinese gamers, development in South Korea might focus on a more developed, high-profit country, much like Singapore. Sands has submitted a bid to build a resort in South Korea at the spot of the 1988 Olympics. This resort would likely be around a $2 billion to $3 billion investment.

The South Korean government decided to allow large casinos in the country just two years ago. However, of the 17 casinos there (most very small), only one is open to South Korean nationals. This red tape is one thing that could stop this investment altogether, as Sands CEO Sheldon Adelson has said that he is only interested in building if South Koreans are allowed to play as well. Still, if these restrictions are loosened -- something pro-gaming regulators are working on -- then this could also be a great future bet.

The wild card: Japan
The possibility of casinos in Japan has been an exciting story to watch unfold this year. The Japanese government currently prohibits casino gambling, but pro-casino lawmakers attempted to pass a bill in the summer and fall legislative sessions to allows casino resorts to be built in Japan. The legislation is still being considered. 

The reason this development has been so exciting is that analysts expect the Japanese gaming market could be the second-largest in the world, behind Macau, at around $40 billion by 2020. Therefore each major casino company, including MGM and Wynn, is vying for a spot in Japan if the legislation passes. Adelson was quoted saying that "We will spend whatever it takes." He was quoted as saying at the same February media briefing, "Would I put in $10 billion? Yes."

While Adelson said that he would rather invest less than that, if $10 billion is what it takes, it seems that is what his company will do. Of course, it's ultimately up to the Japanese lawmakers which casino companies would win bids to build resorts. However, the bill is backed by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who visited LVS's Marina Bay Sands in Singapore earlier this year and announced he would seek that kind of integrated resort model for casinos operating in Japan. That's a good sign for Las Vegas Sands.

A low price for big investments
Las Vegas Sands has a lot to look forward to with the opening of its new megaresort in Macau next year, a possible new resort in South Korea after that, and, hopefully soon, a new resort in Japan. While only the $2.7 billion Macau investment is finalized as of now, Las Vegas Sands has the potential and ability to invest up to $15 billion in these new casinos around Asia, and has been seeking these opportunities more aggressively than any other gaming company.

With its investments in future growth, LVS shareholders could be in for some great gains over the next few years. That is even further compounded by the fact that shares of LVS are down nearly 30% since their highs in March of this year. For Foolish investors looking for long-term growth catalysts, as well as a valuable share price to enter at, this might be the right time to make a bet on this company.

Earnings season is here once again and for investors looking beyond the headlines of earnings reports this is a time to hear directly from management about how a company is performing. Conference calls are the one time every quarter that management gets a change to speak about their business and answer questions about where they're headed in the future.

These conference calls are particularly important in gaming right now because there's a lot of concern about the future of Macau, where Las Vegas Sands and others get most of their revenue. Gaming revenue was down every month in the third quarter and stocks are down as a result, but you wouldn't know the industry is struggling from what Las Vegas Sands' CEO Sheldon Adelson had to say. He's not normally one to be modest, but this quarter he was particularly animated in pointing out how well his company is doing. Here are five quotes that should resonate with investors.

Las Vegas Sands is generating huge profits from Marina Bay Sands in Singapore but it may be equally valuable as a showcase of what the company can build in Japan and South Korea. Image source: Las Vegas Sands.

Las Vegas Sands is differentiated

We are the creators of the large-scale convention-based integrated resort. As a result, we enjoy the benefit of revenue diversification and we are able to cater to virtually every type of business and leisure due to that. Today, well over 80% of operating profit in both our Macao and Singapore operations comes from mass gaming and non-gaming segments, with less than 20% of profits coming from VIP gaming.

This quote really gets to the core of Las Vegas Sands' business model and is the first thing investors should understand about the company. Sheldon Adelson built Las Vegas Sands as a convention based business that brings in thousands of customers for conventions and then offers hotel rooms, food, drinks, entertainment, and gambling to those patrons.

It's a model that was successful in Las Vegas and it's transferred to Macau in the form of a focus on the mass market on Cotai. Las Vegas Sands has built a critical mass of resorts on the Cotai Strip to draw customers and that mass market focus has helped the company weather the downturn in VIP play recently.

Differentiation leads to higher profits

In the first half of 2014, we secured 34% share of overall EBITDA in Macao's six player market. Let me point out to you that the highest of the also-ran was 18.4, just under twice the next one.

Clearly Las Vegas Sands is enjoying the spoils of mass market growth and this shows just how well it is doing as a result. Mass market players are higher margin and that has helped drive higher EBITDA market share versus competitors who focus more on VIP play.

Yay dividends!

For 2015, I am pleased to announce that the Board of Directors has recently increased the dividend by 30% to $2.60 per year or $0.65 per quarter, yay dividends. The increase in the dividend will take place beginning in the first quarter of 2015. We have every intention of increasing the dividends in the years ahead as our business and cash flows continue to grow.

In total, Las Vegas Sands returned $701 million to shareholders in Q3 -- $401.2 million in dividends and $299.8 million in share repurchases. That return of cash isn't slowing down either with the dividend increasing to $2.60 per share in 2015.

This is one of the fundamental changes in gaming stocks over the past few years. Companies used to use cash flows for expansion, but Las Vegas Sands has so much cash that it is returning money to shareholders and funding growth projects like The Parisian on Cotai in Macau. The dividend should be music to investors ears and the consistent increases we've seen of late show why this could be a great cash flow stock long-term.

Marina Bay Sands will drive future growth

Both Japan and Korea have extensively mentioned MBS, Marina Bay Sands, as their model for integrated resort development. Marina Bay Sands is the most iconic integrated resort in the world. That iconic appeal has driven strong growth and valuation from residents of Japan, Korea and the world to Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. We have prepared and presented in Korea, one of the most iconic buildings ever, will turn out to be the most iconic building in the world and we hope and we believe that its received a very, very strong reception, a positive reception.

Once The Parisian is completed in Macau there aren't any new projects on the docket for Las Vegas Sands. That's why Sheldon Adelson is putting a lot of effort into winning potential bids for an integrated resort in South Korea and Japan. What's interesting is that Marina Bay Sands in Singapore is like a showroom for Adelson in discussing those bids. The resort has become an icon for Singapore and as officials mull over the future of gaming and entertainment it shows just what Las Vegas Sands could bring to the table if it wins the bid.

It's also worth noting that Adelson said he wouldn't be interested in either market if it were only open to foreigners. For shareholders that's good news, but it's also a shot across the bow for government officials in Japan who have to decide what they want a potential gaming market to look like.

The Parisian may open in just over a year

Parisian targeted opening date. We have two categories of opening date, partial opening and complete opening. The last I am going to look at it next week. As I said earlier, I am going to Japan, Korea and I am also going to Macau. The last thing I have been told is that a full opening will occur in March, but we can still achieve a partial opening of the casino and some number of rooms if the government will allow us to do that in November or December. So it's not a minor issue. It's maybe we have a partial opening, which has occurred in the past to us and everybody else. So I hope we can open partially in November, December of 2015.

Like I said, The Parisian is the next growth catalyst for Las Vegas Sands, and a year from now we could finally see the resort partially open its doors. The resort is well under way and when completed it will be the final piece of Adelson's vision of Cotai.

The soft opening has been a staple of Adelson's in Las Vegas, and Macau is like a trial run for the resort before completely opening its doors. The big financial impact will come in 2016 though and for investors' sake hopefully the resort will be at least partially open for Chinese New Year in February of 2016.

Oil prices have taken a beating over the past few months, dragging Core Laboratories N.V. stock down along with them.

CLB data by YCharts

Needless to say, the bear market in oil will likely have an impact when Core Labs reports third quarter results after the market closes on October 22. Here is where the drop in oil prices might have had an impact on Core Labs' business.

Oil prices and guidance
Along with its second quarter results Core Labs provided investors with guidance for the third and fourth quarters. However, among the factors leading to that guidance was stable oil prices. The company noted that "in response to very supportive Brent crude prices, the company projects modest growth through the end of 2014." Those very supportive oil prices of more than $100 per barrel are no longer part of the equation, suggesting that the company might have trouble meeting its guidance for modest growth for the balance of this year. 

In the third quarter the company expects revenue of $280-$290 million and earnings of $1.49-$1.52 per share. That would represent an increase in earnings of about 11% from last quarter. Meanwhile, in the fourth quarter the company expected revenue to be $285-$295 million with earnings of $1.56-$1.61 per share. While it's possible that the company might be able to meet its third quarter guidance given that oil prices were stable until after the quarter began, the continual drop in oil will almost assuredly have an impact on fourth quarter guidance. A deep cut in fourth quarter guidance would likely cut into Core Labs' stock price too.

Where oil prices might impact Core Labs
One area where falling oil prices could have had an impact on the company's results is in its Revenue Description operations. Even before oil prices started to fall, oil producers had noticeably slowed down investments in deepwater areas. Core Labs noted this last quarter as the company pointed out that while its Reservoir Description segment established a new second quarter record for revenue it experienced lower amounts of higher-margin revenue from deepwater sources. So, if Core Labs misses expectations this quarter it could have stemmed from falling oil prices causing an even bigger drop off in deepwater revenue.

Specifically, the company noted last quarter that several major coring programs, especially in the Gulf of Mexico, had been deferred but were now scheduled for the second half of this year. The company has nine coring programs in the Gulf of Mexico as part of this deferral, but because it adjusted for risk the company only included revenue of five of these projects in its second half revenue and earnings guidance. That being said, given that these are some of the company's highest revenue and margin opportunities in Revenue Description, which is the company's largest business segment, if these projects faced further delays due to the fall in oil prices it could have a big impact on quarterly results for both this quarter and the fourth quarter. 

Investor takeaway
Core Labs had expected to have a solid third quarter as it delivered modest growth in the second half of the year. But, those projections were based on supportive oil prices, and oil prices haven't been that supportive in the second half of the year. Because of that investors should realize that there is a very distinct possibility that Core Labs might miss expectations as well as reduce its guidance for the fourth quarter. Given the sell-off in shares it would appear that investors are already bracing for this to happen.

With a portfolio of American classics that would impress any investor, Kraft Foods seems like an easy dividend choice. The company pays out an annual dividend yield of just over 4%, but there are plenty of details below the headline number. In separating from Mondelez, Kraft picked up a heaping handful of debt and a limited audience.

While the company isn't in jeopardy of disappearing, the seemingly, here are two things Kraft dividend investors need to keep in mind.

Kraft is saddled with a big chunk of debt
There's debt and then there's Debt, and Kraft has some Debt. In splitting from Mondelez, Kraft ended up with about $10 billion in long-term debt. The company is paying it off in roughly $1 billion installments, though it took last year off and is taking another break next year. Right now, Kraft has nowhere near the cash on hand to start to cover its obligation.

That means Kraft is relying heavily on its annual cash flow to make payments. Over the first six months of the current fiscal year, the company generated free cash flow of $454 million. That's not strictly indicative of where the business will end the year. Kraft finished last year with annual free cash flow of $1.5 billion after hitting just $400 million by this point.

The concern is that even if Kraft covers its payments, that doesn't leave much left for strong increases in the dividend. Last year, Kraft spent $1.2 billion of that $1.5 billion in free cash flow to pay out dividends. This year, the company has increased the dividend slightly and is on track to spend even more on payments.

On top of its dividend payment schedule, Kraft is trying to hold back a wave of recently exercised options. With the spinoff and a spike in the share price, options are being cashed in, potentially diluting the pool by increasing the number of shares outstanding. Kraft has successfully fought the rising tide, though, by spending another $235 million on share repurchases in the first half of the fiscal year.

With all the demands for cash, dividend investors seem to be falling down the priority ladder. That's an important point to keep in mind if you're looking for an increase in your payments anytime soon.

Commodity increases hit Kraft's bottom line
While Kraft has managed to juggle its cash commitments, the company faces the added difficulty of growing its top line in a difficult consumer environment. Kraft's brands cover the entire kitchen, and it is trying to gain more momentum in an environment in which consumers are facing rising costs in every category.

The Consumer Price Index has tracked food costs as they increased over the last year, and dining at home costs about 3% more now than it did 12 months ago. That is squeezing American wallets, and making it difficult for packaged food brands to grow.

Kraft is right in the thick of things, as after the split from Mondelez it ended up with the North American segment. That means it can't rely on falling food costs in other parts of the world to balance out weaker sales in the U.S. For the first six months, Kraft's sales fell 1.3% from the same period of last year.

Kraft management has blamed that fall on the rising cost of commodities, and said it is taking steps to right the ship. Pressure remains on the top line, though, which ends up pressuring the bottom line. That means less money could be coming in to meet all those cash commitments mentioned above. One more worry for investors.

The long-term plan
Kraft's size and brand strength mean that it is unlikely to experience a sharp drop from something as temporary as a spike in commodity prices. The real problem is that the company's short-term cash flow is unbalanced. The business was spun off at a time when commodity prices were more reasonable. That would have helped to smooth out cash flow and make it easier for Kraft to easily pay all of its stakeholders.

As things stand, investors look poised to take a hit, if a hit is coming. There's no choice to be made between paying off debt and paying a dividend, and if Kraft is put in a tight spot investors might have to miss out on a dividend, or at least skip an increase in order to keep the business ticking over. It is important for the company to have cash on hand in case an investment or acquisition pops up. With all the pulls on Kraft's cash, it looks like the dividend waters could be choppy for a while.

This article was written by Oilprice.com, the leading provider of energy news in the world. Also check out these recent articles: 

American utility companies are facing lower-than-average fuel supplies as they begin to stockpile for the winter.

Part of the reason is the country's oil boom. Moving oil by rail has become so widespread that train backups are making it hard for utilities to receive shipments of coal, which in some cases is leaving power plants critically low on fuel supplies.  

Coal stocks were inordinately depleted during the unusually long, cold snowy winter in the U.S., which saw an elevated level of electricity demand. Months later, coal-fired power plants are still struggling to replace their coal supplies.

"Coal piles around the country have gotten to levels that don't make us 100 percent comfortable," David Crane, CEO of NRG Energy, told Bloomberg in an interview. The amount of coal on hand hit just 39 days' worth of supply in July 2014, the month for which the latest data is available. That is down from a 57-day supply at the same time in 2013.

That is largely due to clogged rail lines. A record grain harvest is coinciding with a historic oil boom. All these commodities are competing for limited rail capacity, making it difficult for coal to get through to their final destinations. Some utilities have even had to resort to using trucks to deliver coal. Several power plants have partially or completely shut down operations due to a lack of fuel supply.

NRG Energy is stockpiling alternatives at many of its power plants, and may burn oil if coal shortages become acute.

The main alternative to coal for electricity is natural gas. But natural gas inventories are also significantly lower compared to one year ago. That, too, is because of record-breaking consumption during the winter of 2014, which caused prices to briefly spike over $6 per million Btu (MMBtu).

On the other hand, just as supplies were burned through so quickly during the cold months, the U.S. has seen inventories replenished at a record pace. That has helped bring natural gas prices down from their highs in January and February (see chart).

But, heading into winter, America's natural gas stocks are at their lowest levels in six years.  Total natural gas supplies reached 3.1 trillion cubic feet (tcf) at the end of September, which is 11 percent lower than last year at this time.

Complicating matters further is the retirement of some nuclear and coal-fired power plants since last year, which could put extra strain on natural gas supplies. An additional 1 billion cubic feet of natural gas demand is likely as a result.

And the biggest problem for the northeast may not be fuel supplies, but infrastructure. A lack of pipeline capacity was one of the main culprits for last winter's price increases, a problem that has not been addressed in the meantime.

Still, as of mid-October, futures prices are not much higher than they were at the same time last year, despite the recent anxieties voiced by utility executives about having enough fuel for winter. What's going on?

It is likely that the latest winter weather forecasts eased market fears a bit. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that the winter of 2015 will see higher than average temperatures for Alaska, Hawaii, the western U.S., and crucially, the New England area. "Last year's winter was exceptionally cold and snowy across most of the United States, east of the Rockies. A repeat of this extreme pattern is unlikely this year," NOAA said in its report.

If that is the case, utilities could have no problems meeting winter demand and price spikes would be averted. Here's hoping for a warmer winter.

Source: Apple.

There are already plenty of reasons why Apple's new Apple Pay service, set to launch today, looks poised to succeed where all others before it have failed. Apple Pay's economics, security, and experience all appear far more promising than what's currently available in the market.

But there's one more thing.

Less regulatory burden
According to The Wall Street Journal, Apple will face significantly less regulatory burden than rivals like eBay's PayPal or Google Wallet. Apple won't need to set up anti-money laundering compliance programs, which are costly and time-consuming. Such programs are required for companies that offer financial services where money is being stored.

Source: Google.

Since Apple Pay is not storing funds, and instead only transmitting tokenized payment information, it's only considered a "payment enabler" and is free from these regulatory requirements. Thanks to its broad range of partnerships with all of the major financial institutions, including banks and payment networks, these partners operate the underlying payment infrastructure while Apple only facilitates payments. Apple is not directly involved in the movement of funds, which is where the regulatory oversight typically comes into play.

Leave P2P to the other companies
In contrast, services like Google Wallet and PayPal do store funds and allow users to pay with their existing balances. PayPal accounts have always been like extensions of bank accounts, where users can keep funds for later use with online purchases. Google Wallet similarly stores value, which can be used online or sent to friends and family.

In fact, most of the recent payment services function this way, including Amazon.com Payments, in part to enable peer-to-peer, or P2P, payments. A wide range of start-ups is attempting to tackle P2P payments, including Venmo (whose parent company Braintree has since been acquired by eBay) and Square.

Source: Apple.

The P2P payments market continues to evolve as people seek more modern ways to transmit funds between friends and family (paper checks are just a wee bit antiquated in 2014), and P2P transactions volume could hit an estimated $86 billion in the U.S. alone by 2018. But Apple's not trying to address the P2P market, despite its size. Instead, Apple wants to improve the payment process for purchases, which is a much larger market at $12 billion in transactions in the U.S. daily.

Since the P2P market is an easier nut to crack and there are plenty of offerings, Apple has less to bring to the table here. Ignoring P2P and pursuing the broader payments market with less regulatory burden is yet another way Apple is maximizing its odds of success.

The nice thing about paintings and coatings company PPG Industries is that the stock offers something for growth- and income-seeking investors alike. One one hand, analysts expect the stock to grow its earnings in the mid-teens for the next couple of years. On the other, the company is a Dividend Aristocrat, having raised its payout for 42 years in a row. If you're an income investor, is now the time to buy into PPG Industries? Let's take a closer look.

A Dividend Aristocrat, but also a cyclical stock

The key to growing a dividend is a combination of generating good return on equity, or ROE, and having the earnings and free cash flow to reinvest in the business. In other words, companies need to generate good ROE (net income from shareholder equity) and then use whatever earnings are left over, after dividends have been paid, to reinvest so as to generate growth.

PPG has a strong average ROE, but its earnings tend to go up and down with the economy. Its ROE dipped dramatically during the last recession, because its revenue is heavily dependent on the industrial sector, which tends to be more cyclical than most sectors, and the construction market, which was heavily affected in the last recession.

Sources: Morningstar, author's analysis.

The large ROE in 2013 was due to proceeds from the divestiture of PPG's commodity chemicals business, so I've taken the 2004-2012 average as a better indicator of ROE. Using that average ROE of 20.61%, investors can calculate the stock's expected dividend growth rate using the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the Gordon Growth Model. It's a simple model for calculating g, the rate at which a company can grow its dividend, whereby:

• g = ROE x (1-D/E)
• D: dividend per share
• E: earnings per share

For PPG Industries, g comes out to be 14.85%. In other words, the current trailing dividend is $2.68, yielding 1.4%, and based on its historic ROE, PPG can grow this dividend by 14.85% a year in future. To put this number into context, in 10 years' time the company could pay a dividend of around $10.70, equating to around 5.6% of its current market price.

Dividend cover during the cycle

Another key thing to look out for, particularly with a cyclical stock, is the company's ability to cover the dividend during the trough years. The following chart demonstrates that PPG's earnings didn't cover its dividend in the recession of 2009.

However, in truth, dividends are paid out of free cash flow (as the chart shows), and the company has proven it's able to convert earnings into free cash flow at a good rate.

Sources: Morningstar, Yahoo! Finance.

PPG was able to increase its free cash flow in 2008-2009 only by taking measures such as reducing inventories by $311 million in the period and decreasing receivables (money that customers owe the company) by $231 million. These reductions were equivalent to 25% of the free cash flow generated in those two years. In addition, capital expenditures were cut to 2.42% and 1.95% of sales in 2008 and 2009, respectively, from 3.15% in 2007.

If a company wants to get back to generating growth, it can't keep taking these measures forever. It can't keep running down inventories, not generating receivables (by selling products), or cutting capital expenditures indefinitely.

Will it still be a Dividend Aristocrat?

Whether PPG can retain its Aristocrat status depends on the industrial sector's potential to grow in future years. A quick look at its segmental revenue for 2013 reveals how PPG makes money.

Source: PPG Industries presentation.

Of the first of the two major segments, the major end markets for performance coatings include aerospace, refinish (automotive and transportation), protective and marine coatings (ships, bridges, and rail cars), and architectural coatings in the Americas and Asia-Pacific region. Meanwhile, industrial coatings sells into the industrial, automotive, and packaging markets. The company has done well with its exposure to strong aerospace and automotive markets, and if construction markets come back, then its architectural coatings business could yet improve in 2014.

The takeaway

All told, PPG Industries has a current dividend yield of 1.4%, which isn't going to excite too many income seekers. Moreover, anyone buying the stock has to appreciate that the company is always going to carry some cyclical risk. Nevertheless, the company tends to generate good free cash flows, and it has the potential to increase its dividend significantly in future years. It also offers something for growth investors, because analysts expect its earnings to grow at 15% and 17.5% for the next two years, and its exposure to the aerospace, automotive, and construction markets in particular makes the stock attractive -- at least for more growth-oriented investors.

Intuitive Surgical's last earnings report was a mixed bag. As Rule Breakers analyst Karl Thiel pointed out in July after the robotic surgery company reported second-quarter earnings, sales were down 12% year over year after adjusting for a $6 million trade-in allowance for the new da Vinci Xi system, but procedures performed by doctors grew 9% year over year.

Source: Intuitive Surgical.

Doctors are increasingly using the company's machines, but in a tough capital budget environment, hospitals aren't willing to buy new systems. Obviously, this situation can't go on forever; as competition for time on the machines heats up, doctors will eventually demand that administrators buy new Intuitive products.

With that in mind, here are three things you should focus on when Intuitive Surgical releases earnings after the market closes on Tuesday.

1. Procedure volume
On its second-quarter call, Intuitive Surgical's management guided for procedure growth of 5%-8%, tightening up its previous guidance of 2%-8%. For the first half of 2014, Intuitive Surgical is sitting on a 5% year-over-year growth in procedures, so it will have to at least match that level of growth to meet its goal.

Fortunately, 5% growth seems easily attainable since the company is working off a weak comparison to the second half of 2013. According to my calculations, second-quarter procedures were about 11% higher than those of the third quarter last year and more than 2% higher than the fourth quarter's; so as long as procedures match second-quarter levels, Intuitive Surgical can easily reach its goal. Any sequential growth from the number of procedures in the second quarter will be a bonus.

2. Which procedures
The total volume of procedures is important, but the type of procedures being performed will indicate the sustainability of the growth.

Surgeons specializing in urology and gynecology were the first to embrace the da Vinci systems, but growth in their use has diminished as the market saturates. To drive future growth, Intuitive Surgical needs an increase in the systems' use in other surgical procedures. Look for growth in single-site cholecystectomy (gall bladder removal), single-site hysterectomies, and hernias.

Investors should also monitor where the procedures are being performed. The second quarter saw 7% growth in procedures using Intuitive systems in the U.S., while international growth was 17%. The more these procedures are adopted outside the U.S., the more systems will be sold there. Just 35 of the 96 da Vinci systems sold in the second quarter went to international markets.

3. Which systems
Only 50 of those 96 systems sold were Intuitive Surgical's new Xi systems, so there's plenty of potential for future growth from the new technology.

While we usually think of procedure growth driving future system growth when time on the machines becomes limited, but the opposite could be true for the Xi. The design allows for new kinds of procedures because the arms can reach more anatomy without needing to reposition a patient. Doctors asking their hospitals to buy the new Xi is a good sign for growth outside of the procedures that have become Intuitive Surgical's base.

It's finally happening: Time Warner plans to offer an over-the-top version of its premium network, HBO. Though details remain scarce, HBO's chief executive, Richard Plepler, announced that an Internet-based HBO service, free from the bonds of traditional cable, would be made available to U.S. consumers sometime next year.

Netflix's chief content officer, Ted Sarandos, announced last year that his company's goal was "to become HBO faster than HBO can become us."Now it appears HBO may win that battle, though Netflix's recent earnings report suggests it may not be a fight worth waging.

HBO has the parts in place
Time Warner has remained relatively mum on the details surrounding this new, cable-free version of HBO. Some analysts have speculated that it could prove a lackluster offering -- it may include all of HBO's shows, for example, but days, weeks or even months after traditional cable subscribers receive them.

That's certainly possible, but seems unlikely. HBO's chief executive, Richard Plepler, remarked that it was "time to remove all barriers to those who want HBO" -- offering a stripped-down version would hardly qualify.

It might also be more complex. HBO's digital app, HBO Go, offers a wide variety of HBO content to subscribers -- from the latest shows minutes after they air, to titles more than ten years old. HBO Go is available on nearly every browser, mobile device, and set-top box on the market, but currently requires a cable subscription to access. Going direct to consumer -- selling access to HBO Go to anyone with a credit card -- would create a widely accessible over-the-top offering virtually overnight.

Netflix overtakes HBO
Some have seen Time Warner's stubborn refusal to go over the top as mistake -- I myself argued that it could be limiting Time Warner's share price, as an independent HBO could command the same (or similar) high multiple as a fast-growing Netflix.

Although HBO is tremendously profitable, its domestic subscriber base has hovered near the 30 million mark for years, a barrier that it seemingly cannot break no matter how many Emmys its hit shows win. Netflix, even with lesser quality content, was able to surpass HBO in U.S. subscribers late last year, and now has more than 37 million U.S. members.

Netflix's management has long argued that it has only scratched the surface -- that it could, one day, have as many as 90 million domestic subscribers. If so, that would be shot across the bow of HBO, and nearly definitive proof that it had backed the wrong distribution model.

But Netflix's most recent earnings report challenges that narrative, calling into question the long-term viability of a la carte, over-the-top distribution. In the third quarter, Netflix added streaming subscribers, but fewer than one million -- less than it had forecast, and less than analysts were expecting. Netflix is still growing, but not as rapidly as many had hoped. Shares plunged more than 20% following the report. On the earnings call, Netflix management reiterated their long-term forecast, but the sluggish growth raises the obvious question: Is Netflix nearing saturation?

What an independent HBO might mean for Time Warner
If so, Time Warner's decision to finally offer up HBO a la carte could be a mistake. Though it may add some subscribers on the margin, it may not be enough to justify the potential costs.

Time Warner has long relied on its paid-TV partners to handle customer acquisition and service, for example; going over-the-top will force Time Warner to absorb these costs itself. At the same time, an independent HBO could entice some subscribers to ditch traditional paid-TV altogether, creating ill-will with Time Warner's paid-TV partners and leading to worse results for its other, less popular networks, including CNN, TBS, and TNT.

Or Netflix's recent results could just be a bump in the road -- a temporary set back to an inevitable, a la carte future. In that case, both HBO fans and Time Warner shareholders alike should cheer on its latest move.

Announcing a strategic partnership, and then actually working in unison to provide mutual customers with new solutions doesn't always come to fruition. While the notion of two industry leaders combining forces always looks good on paper, too often, once the hoopla dies down, little, if nothing tangible, comes from the deal. So when news broke in May that Microsoft and Salesforce.com had inked a deal to form a strategic partnership, some investors may have taken a wait-and-see attitude, and rightfully so.

As it turns out, the wait could prove to be well worth it. The two tech leaders recently announced a few specifics of their joint efforts at Dreamforce, billed as the world's largest software conference. And unlike some strategic partnerships, it's clear engineers from both sides have been working feverishly to bring new, and better, solutions to their respective customers.

The specifics
Nadella described Salesforce.com's new Microsoft-inspired solutions by saying, "Our focus is on empowering every individual and organization on the planet [to] be more productive - and that's exactly what this partnership will fuel." The "fuel" Nadella is referring to is Salesforce.com's new Salesforce1 for Windows, Salesforce for Office, Power BI, or Business Intelligence, for Office 365, along with integrating Excel into its enterprise platform.

Just as important as incorporating Microsoft's multiple software solutions into its customer's CRM, is Salesforce.com's new, expanded offerings will also be mobile-ready, and not just on Windows 8.1 operating system. Salesforce1 is also compatible with iOS and Android mobile OS devices, meaning virtually every person with a smartphone or tablet, let alone a desktop computer, will have access to the strategic partnership's new services. That's a critical component of the partnership, particularly with the proliferation of bring-your-own-devices, or BYOD, in the workplace.

Most of the new offerings will be available to customers in the first half of next year, while some, including the Salesforce1 app for Windows 8.1, will roll out to the masses the second half of 2015. Clearly, May's announcement of the strategic partnership between Microsoft and Salesforce.com was a lot more than mere public relations: both sides have been awfully busy making it a reality.

An ideal match
As Microsoft fans are well aware, some of the first word's uttered by Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella upon being named head honcho in February of this year was his "mobile-first, cloud-first" mantra. Since then, Microsoft has focused much of its efforts in fulfilling Nadella's vision, and the strategic partnership with Salesforce.com furthers that objective.

Salesforce.com has been operating in the cloud since before there was a "cloud." Salesforce.com's hosted, customer relationship management tool, or CRM, was introduced in 1999 by co-founder and current CEO Marc Benioff. At the time, Benioff's vision of an off-site, enterprise-wide CRM was nothing short of revolutionary, and here we are 15 years later with tech leaders like Microsoft changing their entire business model to focus on cloud computing.

While Salesforce.com may arguably be the impetus for what cloud technology is today, let alone the almost unlimited potential of what it will become in the future, it's becoming clear the race will be won by those that are able to provide an end-to-end suite of solutions. Already, cloud hosting is nothing more than a commodity; simply a means of getting a new customer in the proverbial door. Nadella knows this, as does Benioff, which is one of the reasons this new strategic partnership is so compelling.

Final Foolish thoughts
Unlike many announced strategic partnerships, Microsoft and Salesforce.com have clearly worked to make something significant of it. Based on what the two cloud leaders shared at Dreamforce, the combination of the world's most popular CRM and the leading software provider on the planet could truly turn out to be a win-win-win situation.

Microsoft wins by gaining an introduction of its cloud-based software services to a bevy of prospective new customers. Salesforce.com wins by expanding its suite of cloud solutions so it's now able to offer its customers a true, end-to-end product line-up. And investors of both Microsoft and Salesforce.com win, as each just took a step closer to becoming leaders in one of the fastest growing industries on the planet.