John Konstantaras/AP Images/Kmart
The gradually improving economy finds the market holding out for healthy improvement this season. However, some retailers have a lot more on the line than others. Let's go over a few.
The biggest turkey among discount department store operators last holiday season was Target. Hackers managing to steal customer information on tens of millions of charged transactions came at the worst possible time, just as the shopping season was starting to peak.
Target was forced into storewide discounts, and the result was a holiday quarter in which comparable-store sales fell and margins got crushed. The big-box retailer has been clawing its way back. It posted solid results on Wednesday with store-level sales climbing and profitability surpassing analyst expectations. It needs to keep that momentum going heading into the same telltale shopping season where it slipped last year.
You know things are bad when you host an analyst day -- as J.C. Penney did last month -- and the stock plunges 11 percent on the day. Days after naming a new CEO, the department store chain hosted the event to tell investors that it will be able to increase sales through online initiatives and refreshing existing product categories.
Wall Street isn't impressed. Sterne Agee applauded the chain's recent cost-saving moves but feels that the turnaround has been slower in coming than it initially expected. Imperial Capital remains bearish, sticking to its uninspiring price target of $3.
J.C. Penney has had three CEOs over the past two years, and it will need a strong holiday season to prove that the third time's the charm.
The only thing worse than running Sears these days is having to run Kmart, too. The parent company of the two fading discount department store chains is in a funk. It has posted nine consecutive quarters of losses, and analysts see the deficits continuing through at least the next four years.
Sears has been selling off assets, but it's also running out of stuff to unload. Book value at Sears has gone from $9 billion at the end of fiscal 2010 to just a little more than $500 million today. Sales at the store level are starting to bottom out, and that's crucial. If Sears Holdings stands a chance to be around in four to five years when it has a shot at profitability, it will need to woo shoppers again. That won't be easy given the CEO's reluctance to invest in updating the stores.
It will need a strong holiday season to prove to suppliers that it will be able to live up to its end of the bargain.
Another retailer on borrowed time is RadioShack. Its holiday shopping seasons may be numbered, and it's not taking any chances this time around. It will open on Thanksgiving for the first time ever this year. The small-box seller of mobile and consumer electronics was initially hoping to be open from 8 a.m. through midnight, but a public outcry forced it to shorten its Thanksgiving hours.
RadioShack's model has been disrupted, and emphasizing smartphones and wireless services a few years ago has yet to pay off. Wall Street's eyeing RadioShack's third consecutive year of losses, and creditors are running out of patience. If it doesn't get things right this holiday shopping season, it may not have to worry about being open on Thanksgiving in the future.
Motley Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. Want to make 2015your best investing year ever? Check out The Motley Fool'sone great stock to buy for 2015 and beyond.
David Wallace/Kohler Co. via APKohler is introducing a battery-operated deodorizing toilet seat that includes a fan that sucks in air, pushing it through an odor-eating carbon filter and then a scent pack.By M.L. JOHNSON
MILWAUKEE -- Blow out the candle and ditch the aerosol can.
Kohler Co. has introduced a deodorizing toilet seat that it says eliminates embarrassing bathroom odors and the need for candles and sprays to cover them up.
A fan hidden in the battery-operated seat sucks in air and pushes it through an odor-eating carbon filter, followed by an optional scent pack. Product manager Jerry Bougher said the idea is to attack smells "where the action is."
The $90 seat is one of many high-tech gadgets that Wisconsin-based Kohler and its competitors have introduced in recent years to make time spent in the bathroom more pleasant. When it comes to toilets, consumers can get seats with features such as slow-closing lids, heat and nightlights that typically add $20 to $100 to the cost.
Kohler sees deodorizing technology as something that most consumers can connect with, Bougher said. "In terms of odor, everyone's experienced it."
The seat turns on automatically when someone sits down. The fan emits a slight hum as it filters the offending odor. The air flows over a scent pack similar to air fresheners used in cars, and the masking smell builds gradually. Bougher's wife, Angela, said her husband installed a Purefresh seat in their home without telling her, and she noticed the scent "just before you would normally reach for a can of spray."
If you have a visitor or someone at your place, it makes them feel more comfortable using the restroom.
Josh Pantel, 27, has a Purefresh seat in the Middleton home he bought about three months ago with his girlfriend, who works for Kohler. He too likes it.
"If you have a visitor or someone at your place, it makes them feel more comfortable using the restroom," Pantel said.
Kohler began selling the seats Nov. 10, in time for the Christmas season. They require two D batteries to operate, and Kohler says the batteries and carbon filters, which cost $6.99, should last six months. Scent packs, which must be replaced monthly, are sold three for $7.99.
It is not the first company to make a no-smell seat. San Francisco-based Brondell introduced one in 2006 but pulled it from the market about three years ago because the manufacturing costs were high and demand "wasn't where we had hoped it would be," said the company's president, Steve Scheer. His company now includes deodorizing technology similar to Kohler's on its $600 Swash 1000 bidet seats.
"Personally, I kind of view [deodorizing] more as an extra than as a core reason to buy the product," Scheer said. However, he said the market for specialty toilet seats is growing.
"People are becoming aware of these kind of unique products," Scheer said. "And once they've used something like a bidet seat or a heated seat, there's no going back."
NEW YORK -- The stock market stayed at record levels Monday as investors remained confident that stimulus measures from the world's central banks would help revive global economic growth.
Stocks have surged since bottoming out in a slump that stretched from mid-September to mid-October. The rally has been driven by optimism that central banks in Europe, China and Japan will take action to help invigorate economic growth outside the U.S., after the Federal Reserve ended its bond-buying stimulus program last month.
You clearly have momentum favoring stocks right now.
"You clearly have momentum favoring stocks right now," said Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at Blackrock.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index (^GPSC) rose 5.91 points, or 0.3 percent, to 2,069.41. The index has climbed for seven of the last eight days and is at an all-time high, having gained almost 12 percent this year.
The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) rose 7.84 points, less than 0.1 percent, to 17,817.90. The Nasdaq composite gained 41.92 points, or 0.9 percent, to 4,754.89.
On Monday, gains were led by the so-called consumer discretionary sector, which includes retailers such as Coach (COH), Urban Outfitters (URBN) and Gap (GPS). These stocks should benefit most if the consumers go on a spending spree this holiday season.
Coach rose 95 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $37.41 as analysts at Stifel reiterated their belief that the maker of luxury clothing and accessories is "doing the right things to reinvigorate the brand." The analysts believe that the stock's price could climb as high as $47. The stock is down 32 percent for the year.
Telecommunications stocks were among the day's biggest losers. Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) slumped after analysts at Citigroup (C) published a gloomy review of the sector and predicted a tough year ahead for the two phone giants.
Verizon fell 71 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $49.50. Citigroup cut its outlook on the stock to "neutral," predicting that the company's earnings will come in lower than most Wall Street analysts expect. Revenue growth at the big telecommunication companies could crimped by more intense competition and higher prices for wireless spectrum. AT&T dropped 58 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $34.70.
Stocks were still riding momentum from Friday, when China's central bank lowered a key interest rate and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he was willing to step up the bank's efforts to stimulate the region's struggling economy.
Oil fell ahead of a crucial meeting in Vienna on Thursday of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Traders will be looking for a possible agreement to cut production to shore up prices. The price of crude has tumbled 26 percent since June as producers kept output stable while demand in Europe and other markets weakened.
Benchmark U.S. crude fell 73 cents, or 1 percent, to $75.78 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils used by many U.S. refineries, fell 68 cents to close at $79.68 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.
In other energy futures trading on the NYMEX, wholesale gasoline fell 2.3 cents to $2.033 a gallon, heating oil fell a penny to $2.395 a gallon and natural gas fell 11.5 cents to $4.151 per 1,000 cubic feet.
The slump in energy prices bodes well for the upcoming holiday shopping season, said Jennifer Ellison, a principal of San Francisco-based Bingham, Osborn & Scarborough. She predicts that any money that consumers save at the gas pump is likely to be spent, rather than saved.
The falling price of oil "affects consumers in a lot of different ways, but most importantly you've got more money in your pocket," said Ellison. "That has a big impact especially at a time like holiday season when people are spending anyway."
In U.S. government bond trading, prices edged up. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.30 percent from 2.31 percent on Friday. The dollar resumed its climb against the Japanese yen. The U.S. currency rose to 118.26 yen from 117.79 yen Friday. The euro rose to $1.2439 from $1.2360.
In metals trading, the price of gold fell $2, or 0.2 percent, to $1,195.70 an ounce. Silver dropped 1.9 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $16.38 an ounce. Copper declined 3.2 cents, or 1 percent, to $3 a pound.
What to Watch Tuesday:
The Commerce Department releases third-quarter gross domestic product at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Standard & Poor's releases the S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices for September and the third quarter at 9 a.m.
The Conference Board releases the Consumer Confidence Index for November at 10 a.m.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) reports quarterly financial results after the market closes.
NEW YORK -- Half of all working Americans want a retirement-savings do-over as they fall short of their goals.
TIAA-CREF's Ready to Retire survey reveals that and a lot more that once again points to a retirement savings landscape where millions of Americans believe they won't have enough cash to live on in retirement and wish they'd emphasized "financial readiness" capacity during their saving years.
The report says 52 percent of Americans approaching retirement say "they wish they had started saving for the future sooner" and that many worry about not having enough money to cover their monthly expenses (45 percent), while others are anxious about how health care costs (35 percent) or inflation (32 percent) could deplete their retirement savings.
As usual with surveys on Americans and their retirement savings, there's a disconnect in what savers say they need to accomplish and what they actually accomplish. For example, 45 percent of survey respondents age 55-64 say "financial readiness is the most important factor in determining when they will retire," but only 35 percent say they saved in an IRA or met with a financial adviser.
Regret about what could have been also dominate the survey. "Many respondents say they wish they had made smarter financial decisions earlier in their career, including saving more of their paycheck (47 percent) and investing their savings more aggressively (34 percent)," the report says. As a result, TIIA-CREF reports that 68 percent of Americans near retirement say they are "not prepared" financially and another 42 percent say they will have to keep working in retirement and 39 percent must "limit" what they spend.
"This research reinforces that preparing for retirement shouldn't become a sprint to the finish, but rather a long-distance pursuit that requires careful planning throughout an adult's life," says Teresa Hassara, an executive vice president at TIAA-CREF.
The survey results should act as a prod to better saving habits. "This will help prevent those nearing retirement from feeling like they have to play catch-up near the end of their careers," Hassara says. "Developing and acting on a carefully constructed plan can help individuals at any age build a financially secure future."
The news isn't all negative for slow savers. Hassara says many older workers can make up a lot of ground if they act right away. "If Americans find that their retirement savings aren't adequate to meet their expectations about retirement life, it's never too late to make adjustments," she says. "In fact, if a 55-year-old starts to max out his or her employer-sponsored retirement plan contribution next year and continues to do so for the next 10 years, those savings could grow to about $325,000.
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Ever wonder how those hotshot real estate agents on "Million Dollar Listing" manage to get their clients into the perfect house just in time for the commercial break? If you said "clever editing," you are only partly correct. Knowing how to select a great real estate agent and teaching her exactly what type of house to look for is one of the secrets to success, and something that can give you an advantage over your competition.
And don't be mistaken, it is a competition. You are competing against everyone else out there that wants to find the perfect house at the best price. Yet prospective buyers can be lazy when it comes to choosing an agent, often using familiarity as their only criteria, thus frequently ending up with a "friend of a friend" or the agent who has the most prolific marketing. Consider these ideas:
1. Sometimes Bigger Really Is Better
A top producer with an intimate knowledge of the local market should be everybody's first choice to represent them. However, all things being equal, it is most important to choose an agent who works in the largest office in the area where you want to buy.
Despite the fact that technology now allows housing information to be distributed in a much wider fashion, the vast majority of ultra-prime properties get snapped up before they ever hit the local multiple listing service or public real estate sites. And often on Monday mornings.
That is when real estate offices gather their agents together over coffee and doughnuts to talk about their new listings, and more importantly for you, the ones they have coming up -- meaning those where their client has committed to selling but is not quite ready to have their listing activated on the MLS.
The best properties will never see the light of day because savvy agents will alert their buyers to these private listings, often getting them access to view the properties before anyone else knows they are going to market. Having an agent with this type of inside track to new listings allows you the best chance to find a truly hidden gem before anyone else.
2. Clients Are from Venus, Agents Are from Mars
But having a good agent -- no matter how plugged in he is -- is not enough if you can't communicate not only about what you want, but why you want it. That second part is by far the most critical.
When you first sit down with your agent, he will probably ask you a series of questions or maybe even have you fill out a form listing the requirements for your dream house. Do you want a big back yard? Pool or no pool? Near the city or out in the suburbs? These questions are designed to help your agent narrow down potential candidates.
But this is where the "why" comes into play. Say that you tell your agent that you want a large back yard. In fact, it's a deal killer. What if the reason you want a big back yard is because you have a dog that needs room to run? And what if there is a house listed for sale that by every other measure is your dream home? And there also happens to be a dog park just down the street?
If your agent knew the reason you wanted the big back yard was for your dog, he might then show you this house, reasonably assuming the adjacent dog park would make it work for you. By telling your agent, in as much detail as possible, what the reasoning is for your must-have list, he might find a perfect home for you that otherwise may have eliminated.
3. Specialization Is Your Best Friend
The vast majority of real estate agents will take either side of the home transaction process, representing both buyers and sellers. In some states, like California and New York, an agent can represent both the buyer and the seller of the same house.
Though organizations like the National Association of Realtors will tell you this can be done impartially, those who live in the real world know that claim is suspect at best.
Buyer's agents specialize in only representing clients who are purchasing a home. Using this type of dedicated agent minimizes the possibility that she isn't working in your best interest. And because she has eliminated the ability to make money selling homes, it is that much more critical to her that she complete a transaction for every client she has. This ensures that she will go the extra mile and turn over every stone in order to find you the perfect home.
The Lund Loop is a free once-weekly curated slice of what I am writing, reading and hearing about in finance, tech, music, pop culture, humor and the good life. But not sports or knitting ... ever!
When it comes to wine, the older the better. And usually older, also means more expensive. Most of us don't have time for that. So if you're more inclined to grab a bottle of wine at the grocery store, than in a Parisian cellar, this one's for you.
Seattle-based inventors have created the Sonic Decanter. They say the device will have your $10 boxed wine tasting like a $100 bottle of finely aged vino.
The creators call it an innovative device that enhances the taste, aroma, and the mouth feel of any wine in minutes.
Using ultra sound technology, the decanter speeds up the aging process using high frequency sound waves. It breaks down the preservatives and softens the tannins, which are proteins and acids in the wine, making it more aromatic while improving the taste.
The inventors add that the decanter makes aggressive wines more soft and drinkable.
They promise this patented process will upgrade your cheap red wine in 20 minutes, and your white wine in 15. It's not on the market yet, but it's looking to gain momentum via a Kickstarter page.
This must have all the wine connoisseurs in a tizzy. First off, we don't have to wait decades to experience find wine. But more importantly, we don't have to go broke either. Where can we sign up?
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Recent federal statistics show that an estimated 235 million turkeys are produced in the U.S. for 2014 -- down 2 percent from last year and far down from the 1996 peak of 303 million. Turkey farming thrives in many states, but mostly in the upper Midwest, where feed supplies are large, as Mark Jekanowski, chief of the crops branch in the Economic Research Center of U.S. Department of Agriculture told Smithsonian. Here are the top four locations where your gobbler may come from this year.
Minnesota
Minnesota, with a multi-generation tradition of turkey farming, is producing 45 million turkeys in 2014, making it the No. 1 state. It touts the highest number of independent turkey farmers in the country -- 450, which operate 600 farms. Ninety percent of the state's turkeys will go outside the state, with 15 percent of those going overseas. Kandiyohi County, in the south-central part of the state, is home to the world's largest turkey processor/marketer (Jennie-O Turkey Store) and poultry hatching company (Willmar Poultry). Kandiyohi is the fourth-largest county in the country for turkey production and processing.
Turkey production fell 18 percent this year in North Carolina, to 28 million. The drop could raise concerns, as the $12.8 billion poultry industry makes up 40 percent of the state's farm income and creates more than 110,000 jobs. Most turkeys come from Anson, Duplin, Lenoir, Sampson, Union and Wayne counties.
Indiana
With an estimated 19 million turkeys produced in 2014, up 9 percent, Indiana took the fourth spot from Missouri and Virginia (16 million each). Daviess and Dubois counties in southern Indiana dominate production. Dubois is home to the Farbest Foods headquarters, original processing plant and related facilities. Farbest ships a million pounds of fresh, frozen and raw turkey to processors each day.
Roger Milley
For more than five years now, the bull market in stocks has sent the Dow Jones Industrials (^DJI) and other major market benchmarks soaring. Even though 2014 has failed to match the strength of 2013, the Dow has still posted an impressive gain of nearly 7 percent, not including the dividends that its components have paid along the way.
But just because stocks have kept to their winning ways in 2014 doesn't mean that every investor was so fortunate. In fact, some types of investments have performed abominably this year, costing investors huge losses. Let's take a look at five of the worst investments of 2014 to see if you can draw some conclusions to help guide better investing decisions in 2015 and beyond.
5. Foreign Currency Investments
The strength of the U.S. dollar was one of the highlights of 2014, as sluggish economies in Japan and Europe combined with slowing growth in China and other emerging markets stood in stark contrast to the health of the U.S. economy. As a result, foreign investors flooded into dollar-denominated U.S. investments, and that hurt the value of the foreign currencies that they sold in order to make purchases in U.S. dollars. The CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (FXY) lost another 10 percent in 2014 after an 18 percent drop in 2013, and the CurrencyShares Euro (FXE) came close to matching the yen's poor performance with an almost 10-percent decline this year. Typically, currency moves run in cycles, and any recovery in the global economy could reverse the dollar's recent strength. Still, there's no guarantee that the trend this year won't continue well into 2015.
4. Crude Oil
Anyone who's been to a gas station recently has seen the precipitous drop in gasoline prices over the past several months. But what's good news for consumers is bad news for the companies that rely on sales of crude oil and other energy products to generate profits. Over 2014, world oil prices have fallen from above $110 per barrel to below $80, leaving the global oil community in disarray and many countries struggling to figure out how to stem an even more precipitous future decline. Energy stocks have fallen recently by dramatic amounts, but the real losers have been commodity-tracking vehicles like United States Oil (USO), which is down more than 20 percent for the year.
3. Russian Stocks
The Russian stock market fell prey to severe downward pressure in 2014, as the emerging-market country introduced geopolitical risk into the financial markets. After the annexation of Crimea and heightened tensions in Ukraine, the threat of sanctions from Western allies led to widespread fears about the sustainability of Russia's economy. Moreover, weakness in commodities like crude oil and precious metals contributed to sending the value of the Russian ruble downward, further exacerbating the losses for U.S. investors. Even with the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) having fallen 28 percent so far in 2014, the prospects for Russian stocks remain highly uncertain as the energy markets face further weakness.
2. Bets on Higher Interest Rates
In the middle of 2013, interest rates skyrocketed in short order when the Federal Reserve announced that it would steadily bring its quantitative easing program to an end. Investors feared that the end of government bond purchases would force long-term rates higher, and many bearish investors looked at leveraged investments like the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) as a potential source of profits. Yet Treasury rates have remained low and have even declined in recent months, and that has sent the ProShares ETF down by more than 30 percent so far this year. Even though the leverage didn't help investors in this ETF, those who bought Treasuries fared far better than those who bet against them in 2014. Many believe rates will finally start to climb in 2015, but the potential for another mistake remains high given all the uncertainty in the bond market.
1. Volatility-Based Investments
For years, investors have expected that the long upward trajectory for stocks would come to an end, and certain specialized volatility-tracking investments are designed to produce huge profits in the event of a big decline for stocks. Yet once again in 2014, the stock market has proven incredibly resilient, and that has sent these volatility-trackers to fresh and substantial losses for another year. The iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX) has lost about a third of its value so far in 2014, but the real victims have been similar instruments that used leverage to magnify their returns. The VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX ST ETN (TVIX) is down more than two-thirds this year, and more alarmingly, it suffered declines of more than 90 percent in both 2012 and 2013, reducing its split-adjusted share price from over $11,000 in late 2010 to less than $3 currently. These volatility-linked investments have performed well in the brief periods when stocks fell, but over the long run, the bull market has crushed them.
No one likes to choose losing investments, but sometimes, certain types of investments face challenges that prove almost impossible to overcome. Just because these investments didn't perform well in 2014 doesn't mean they'll automatically fail in 2015 as well, but you should at least learn some of the traits that contributed to their poor performance and keep a close eye on them to see whether they can recover.
Motley Fool contributorDan Caplingertries to learn from his mistakes and turn them into future winners. He doesn't own shares of any of the ETFs mentioned in this article. You can follow him on Twitter@DanCaplingeror onGoogle+. To read about our favorite high-yielding dividend stocks for any investor, check outour free report.
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For many American manufacturers, Internet sales can make or break a business. And with Cyber Monday gaining in popularity, many companies are turning attention to one-day Internet deals, promoted to potential consumers and current fans through email updates and Facebook (FB) posts.
How Cyber Monday Began
In 2005, shop.org debuted the term "Cyber Monday" in a news release hoping to persuade the public to shop online. E-commerce retailers had been looking for a way to highlight the spike in online spending seen the Monday after Thanksgiving.
Cyber Monday allowed consumers to shop from their desk or home, with equal or better discounts to the stampedes, fights and long lines on Black Friday -- which was creeping into Thanksgiving. In 2013, comScore (SCOR) reported that Cyber Monday sales topped $1.735 billion -- an 18 percent increase from 2012.
Joining the Monday Campaign
For smaller manufacturers trying to make a name for themselves stateside -- often only selling online -- Cyber Monday can be a blessing. Consumers looking for an extra-special gift can find unique items not available in stores.
The Jackson Hole Buffalo Meat Co. in Jackson, Wyoming, does 60 percent of its business online and will embrace Cyber Monday for the first time this year. Owner Dan Marino purchased the company, which was founded in 1947, in 1997, when the Internet started to take off. He saw an opportunity to expand by offering the highest quality all-natural raised-in-the-USA products to those outside of Wyoming. "We do custom gift packs and corporate gifts, and we ship all over the USA," he said. "I saw a great opportunity to really make the Jackson Hole Buffalo Meat Co. into a national supplier of game-type healthy meats, and make this company a household name brand."
The Great Alaskan Bowl Co. in Fairbanks, Alaska, has used the Internet to sell it one-piecebowls, from sustainably harvested birch, to the rest of the United States -- and as far as India and South Africa. "We have done Cyber Monday and continue to do so," said Malen Bratcher, marketing and wholesale director. "It does increase our sales and hopefully will continue to move us in the right direction."
Jacob Bromwell kitchen and household accessories has been around since 1819, and 50 percent sales are now online. "We've had an online store since 1999, and up until 2010 it was only a small part of our business," said Sean Bandawat, president. "In recent years, we've implemented many online marketing initiatives that have driven our online through the roof. That distribution channel has become extremely important to the overall financial health of the company." On Cyber Monday, it will offer 30 percent off all items.
If you're not one of the lucky few of us that actually enjoy a morning jog or a spin class, easy weight loss in a pill is still the dream.
Americans spend an estimated $2 billion a year on supplements that claim to boost metabolism, suppress appetite or make us thinner in one way or another.
It can be hard to tell which, if any, of those products actually work, which you'll know if you've tried a few yourself. But when a big-name company like Nestle says it's developing its own fat-burning potion, even some of the most jaded consumers will pay attention.
Last week, the company announced a team of health scientists were developing a compound that can mimic the effect exercise has on your metabolism -- "Unlocking the metabolic 'master switch', " as they called it.
The idea of having a Nestle Quik instead of going to that aerobics class? I'm in.
A paper in the journal Chemistry & Biology earlier this year detailed their creation, Compound-13, and its effects on the body's energy systems. It's been described in the media as "exercise in a bottle," a way to get fit while avoiding the gym.
One KNBC anchor admitted, "The idea of having a Nestle Quik instead of going to that aerobics class? I'm in."
But you know by now that these stories always come with a catch, right? In this case, several catches.
The first is that the company says Compound-13 won't replace exercise, just boost its effects. You'll still have to lace up.
Second, the chocolate company's compound is still in early testing. Lots of products that look promising in the beginning fail to pan out, so you may never get that fat-burning Kit Kat.
And third, let's be honest: the diet pill industry has a really dubious past.
Miracle weight loss supplements are a dime a dozen, many of them promoted in front of wide audiences by figures like Dr. Oz.
"And now I've got the number one miracle in a bottle to burn your fat. It's raspberry ketone."
But government health sites warn that not nearly enough research has been done on weight-loss supplements to call any of them truly effective. And some supplements can actually be dangerous, resulting in things like liver failure.
Fox News contributor Dr. Nina Radcliff said, "Any time we get news that there's an innovation that can help us lose weight without breaking out a sweat, we get excited. But we need to take it with a grain of salt. Don't forget Fen-Phen."
Radcliff replied, "It caused heart problems and people dying."
Still, it would be nice to have an extra tool in the fitness toolbox, so there's probably no harm in crossing our fingers and hoping Nestle gets it right.
Paul Sancya/AP2015 Ford F-150s move along the production line at the Dearborn Truck Plant in Michigan.By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON -- U.S. economic growth was far stronger than initially thought in the third quarter, pointing to strengthening fundamentals that should support the economy for the rest of the year.
The Commerce Department on Tuesday raised its estimate of gross domestic product to a 3.9 percent annual pace from the 3.5 percent rate reported last month, reflecting upward revisions to business and consumer spending, as well as restocking.
Spending on residential construction also was raised, helping to offset downward revisions to export growth and government spending.
Economists had expected growth would be trimmed to a 3.3 percent pace.
"This report will go some way in providing further confirmation about the sustainability of the current economic recovery," said Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD Securities in New York.
The economy had expanded at a 4.6 percent rate in the second quarter. It has now experienced the two strongest back-to-back quarters of growth since the second half of 2003.
When measured from the income side, the economy grew at its fastest pace since the first quarter of 2012.
U.S. stock futures edged up and the dollar rose to session highs against the euro after the data. Prices for U.S. Treasuries erased slight gains.
Bright Spot
The third quarter marked the fourth out of the past five quarters that the economy has expanded above a 3.5 percent pace.
Data ranging from manufacturing to employment and retail sales suggest the economy retained some of that momentum early in the fourth quarter. Growth estimates for the final three months of the year are running a bit below a 3 percent rate.
The United States remains a bright spot in an increasingly gloomy global economy, with Japan back in recession and growth in the eurozone and China slowing significantly.
The brisk economic growth pace also could boost expectations the Federal Reserve will start raising its short-term interest rate sometime in mid-2015. The U.S. central bank has kept its benchmark lending rate near zero since December 2008.
Underscoring the economy's firming fundamentals, growth in domestic demand was revised up to a 3.2 percent pace in the third quarter instead of the previously reported 2.7 percent pace.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew at a 2.2 percent pace instead of the previously reported 1.8 percent rate.
Growth in business investment was raised to a 7.1 percent pace from a 5.5 percent rate, with a stronger pace of spending on equipment than previously thought accounting for the bulk of the revision.
Businesses accumulated $79.1 billion worth of inventories in the third quarter, rather than the previously reported $62.8 billion. Inventories, however, could weigh on growth in the final three months of the year.
Export growth was lowered to a 4.9 percent rate from the previously reported 7.8 percent rate, while imports were revised up. That left a trade deficit that contributed 0.78 percentage point to GDP growth instead of the previously reported 1.32 percentage points.
Government spending also was cut, as outlays at state and local governments were not as strong as previously reported.
Anthony Harvey/Getty ImagesDisney Frozen Snow Glow Elsa and Disney Frozen Sparkle Doll are named one of the top 12 Dream Toys at the Dream Toys 2014 event on Nov. 5 in London.By Everett Rosenfeld | @Ev_Rosenfeld
For the first time in the 11-year history of the poll, Mattel's Barbie wasn't the winner for girls' parents. Instead, merchandise for Disney's (DIS) "Frozen" is the survey's clear victor -- with about one in five parents saying they plan to buy a toy related to the hit animated film.
Barbie has been the top girls' toy for over a decade, but it is no surprise that Disney's 'Frozen' has taken the top seat...
"Barbie has been the top girls' toy for over a decade, but it is no surprise that Disney's 'Frozen' has taken the top seat, as children have had it on the mind as far back as Halloween," Prosper's Consumer Insights Director Pam Goodfellow said in an NRF press release.
"Frozen" debuted in theaters in November 2013, but its snowball of popularity -- and merchandising -- has gained speed ever since. In box office sales alone, it has generated more than $1.25 billion in global revenue.
Although she may have lost the top spot to the snow queen of Arendelle, Barbie still managed to win over a large swath of parents. The survey found that 16.8 percent planned to purchase a toy from the Mattel (MAT) mainstay.
For boys, Lego, manufactured by Denmark's privately held Lego Group, retained its No. 1 spot, followed by the generic "Cars & Trucks" category.
The survey also found that many parents are planning to buy their kids tablets; that gift option came in the top 10 for both boys and girls.
Chris Hondros/Getty ImagesMcDonald's started giving calorie counts years ago in New York City.By Mary Clare Jalonick
Whether they want to or not, consumers will soon know how many calories they are eating when ordering off the menu at chain restaurants, picking up prepared foods at supermarkets and even eating a tub of popcorn at the movie theater.
The Food and Drug Administration announced long-delayed calorie labeling rules Tuesday, requiring establishments that sell prepared foods and have 20 or more locations to post the calorie content of food "clearly and conspicuously" on their menus, menu boards and displays. Companies will have until November 2015 to comply.
The regulations will also apply to convenience stores, bakeries, coffee shops, pizza delivery, amusement parks and vending machines.
The idea is that people may pass on that bacon double cheeseburger if they know it has hundreds of calories -- and, in turn, restaurants may make their foods healthier to keep calorie counts down. Beverages are included in the rules, and alcohol will be labeled if drinks are listed on the menu.
"Americans eat and drink about one-third of their calories away from home and people today expect clear information about the products they consume," FDA Commissioner Margaret Hamburg said. The effort is just one way Americans can combat obesity, she added.
Supermarkets, Convenience Stores Included
The menus and menu boards will tell diners that a 2,000-calorie diet is used as the basis for daily nutrition, noting that individual calorie needs may vary. Additional nutritional information beyond calories, including sodium, fats, sugar and other items, must be available upon request.
The rules deal a blow to the grocery and convenience store industries, which have lobbied hard to be left out since the menu labels became law in 2010 as a part of the health care overhaul. Even before the new rules were announced, some Republicans in Congress had expressed concern that they would be too burdensome for businesses.
The law came together when the restaurant industry agreed to the labeling in an effort to dodge a growing patchwork of city and state rules. But supermarkets, convenience stores and many other retailers that sell prepared food said they wanted no part of it. The restaurant industry pushed to include those outlets, as they increasingly have offered restaurant-like service.
The FDA issued proposed rules in 2011 that included supermarkets and convenience stores but excluded movie theaters. The final rules being released Tuesday include all of them.
Consider the Rotisserie Chicken
The restaurant industry, along with nutrition and consumer advocates, has said any business that sells prepared foods should be included. They argued that if a rotisserie chicken is labeled with a calorie count at a takeout restaurant, it should be labeled at a grocery store.
Representatives for the supermarket industry have said it could cost them up to a billion dollars to put the labels in place -- costs that would be passed on to consumers. They said the rules could cover thousands of items in each store, unlike restaurants, which typically have fewer items.
To assuage some of their concerns in the final rules, FDA excluded prepared foods that are typically intended for more than one person to eat and require more preparation, like deli meats, cheeses or bulk deli salads.
But a sandwich for sale at the same counter would have to have a calorie label nearby, and the majority of prepared foods in the grocery store will have to be labeled -- from the salad bar to the hot food bar to cookies and birthday cakes in the bakery.
Leslie G. Sarasin, president and CEO of the Food Marketing Institute, the main trade group for supermarkets, said the industry is "extremely disappointed" in the rule.
"The cost of FDA's menu labeling rule will redirect hundreds of millions of dollars away from grocers' efforts toward expansion of their offerings of fresh, minimally processed, locally produced items, such as cut cantaloupe, mixed salads, or steamed seafood," she said. "Clearly, this was not the intent behind a requirement for menu labeling in chain restaurants."
Pizza by the Slice
The pizza industry, led by delivery giant Domino's (DPZ), has also vigorously fought the rules, saying there are millions of ingredient combinations possible. The FDA attempted to mollify some of their concerns by allowing pizza restaurants to label pizza calories by the slice, as they had requested, but would still force the labeling on menu boards in takeout restaurants.
The delivery pizza industry had asked to post information online instead, saying only a small percentage of customers walk into their stores and about half order online.
As in the proposed rules, the final version still exempts airplanes, trains, food trucks and other food served on forms of transportation. School foods overseen by the Agriculture Department aren't covered either.
The point of menu labeling is to make sure that customers process the calorie information as they are figuring out what to eat. Many restaurants currently post nutritional information in a hallway, on wrappers or on their website. The new law will make calories immediately available for most items.
New York City was the first in the country to put a calorie posting law in place, and other cities and states have followed since then. Several restaurant chains such as McDonald's are already putting calorie labels on menus and menu boards nationwide.
Reed Saxon/APThis device, about 1 inch in diameter, demonstrates a small toy that is a choking hazard.
As families around the country gear up for the biggest toy-buying frenzy of the year, an annual review of toys by one of the nation's largest consumer advocacy groups found that dangerous toys remain easily available for purchase. But there are steps parents can follow to help ensure their children avoid some of the dangers. Some toys that raised concern feature popular characters, including
Disney's (DIS) Doc Mcstuffins (a figurine set in which the heads regularly break off) and Jake and the Neverland Pirates (a tambourine set with chromium). Others, like a toy sheriff's badge (made with lead) can be found at dollar stores.
"Despite consumer protection laws, companies continue to produce and import toys that potentially present a hazard for children, putting them at risk of injury or even death," the report said.
Make It Safer for Your Kids
And the report noted, just this month, a huge recall of McDonald's (MCD) Hello Kitty Happy Meal toy sets was conducted because a piece of a whistle in the set can be swallowed by small children. But not every toy that poses a potential hazard is recalled.
The people who develop the survey each year have these safety recommendations:
Be sure the toys you buy are age-appropriate.
Beware of choking hazards, such as broken balloons, watch-sized batteries and small balls. As a guide, no toy part for a child 3 or younger should be able to fit in the opening of a toilet paper tube. Keep broken parts of toys or small pieces away from small children.
Don't allow children to play with toys that have magnets. The Consumer Product Safety Commission has reported incidents involving children, even older kids, who have swallowed strong magnets, causing severe damage to their gastrointestinal systems.
Avoid overly loud toys. "If it sounds too loud, it probably is."
Don't allow children to play with cords or strings that are more than a foot long.
Beware of toys with toxic chemicals. Healthystuff.org lists chemical content ratings for more than 5,000 products. Among the hazards the site tests for include BPA, lead and arsenic.
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Planning to splurge for a big Thanksgiving dinner with family and friends? Be happy in knowing that what you drop for the whole dinner wouldn't buy a single seat at an exclusive and oh, so expensive meal at the Old Homestead Steakhouse in Manhattan. The restaurant has promoted a $35,000 celebration for four, or $8,750 a person, according to the New York Daily News.
To put that 1-percenter tag into perspective, the average price for preparing Thanksgiving dinner is $49.41, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. Oh, that's for ten people, making it just under $5 a head. Dining at the Old Homestead would be 7,000 times more expensive, although the restaurant has a less stratospheric choice that runs $65 a person, according to New York Eater.
The menu, listed by the Daily News, includes the following:
Fois gras soaked in $5,000 a bottle Courvoisier L'Esprit cognac and then stuffed into squab.
Organic turkey stuffed with seven pounds of ground Japanese Wagyu filet mignon.
Gravy infused with $1,750 per bottle Chateau Mouton Rothschild.
Cranberry orange relish with Grand Marnier.
Butternut squash with black truffles.
Mashed potatoes with Swedish moose cheese.
Whipped sweet potatoes with Royal Osetra 000 caviar.
Poached bourbon-soaked pears with pumpkin paste and a dusting of 24-carat gold flakes.
"We know it's over-the-top, but Thanksgiving comes once a year. If you can splurge for this, you have a lot to be thankful for," said co-owner Marc Sherry to the Daily News.
Four Have Signed Up, and There's Room for Eight More
But, wait, there's more, including grandstand seating for Macy's (M) parade, a $6,000 Bloomingdales gift card, door-to-door limousine transportation and dancing lessons at a Fred Astaire Dance Studio. The diners get to learn the turkey trot. You can also have the meal catered to your palatial estate.
A party of four has already signed up, according to New York Eater, and there is room for eight more people, so you still have time to make a reservation, in case you were trying to decide whether to buy a new car or splurge $35,000 on a single meal.
The Old Homestead has never shied from publicity in the past. In January, the restaurant offered a $150,000 Super Bowl feast, with food from pregame to the postgame recap. That menu included steak, seafood, and single-malt scotch or Dom Perignon champagne.
A couple of years ago, the Old Homestead took a slightly different tack on Thanksgiving and served up food for 200 people whose neighborhoods had been battered by Hurricane Sandy.
As the holidays approach, a lot of shoppers look to Black Friday for the best, hardest-to-find discounts, but in reality, the deals being offered aren't as good as you think. Here are a few deceptive Black Friday sales tactics that you and your budget should avoid.
First, don't be quick to fall for overhyped "doorbuster" sales. Oftentimes, retailers will dangle a popular item at a big discount to lure customers in, but what they don't tell you is how limited their quantities are. These stores know that once they get you inside, you're likely to stay and spend on the lesser deals, so always call and check their inventory first.
Next, watch out for derivative products. Some Black Friday ads will only include the bare minimum when it comes to technical specs for devices like TV's, laptops and tablets. Usually, this is because the item on sale is a derivative product, specifically manufactured for Black Friday and the holiday season with lower overall quality and less features. These items may look like their pricier counterparts, but they probably won't last as long, costing you more in the long run.
Lastly, don't be swayed by phony markdowns. This is when a sale price is posted alongside an inflated "original price," creating the illusion of a great deal. This is a classic retail trick, so don't be misled. Focus on the sale prices and use those as a comparison.
So, while Black Friday does have some good deals, they're not always the best you'll find all year. Keep these seasonal tips in mind while shopping, and you'll see the savings for yourself.
Carlos Osorio/Toronto Star/Getty Images
Redbox's holiday gift to consumers is a price increase for items rented at 40,000 kiosks through the U.S.
Beginning Dec. 2, daily rental rates for DVDs will go from $1.20 to $1.50 (up 25 percent); and Blu-ray rentals will rise from $1.50 to $2 (up 33 percent). Beginning Jan. 6, daily video game rentals will rise from $2 to $3 (up 50 percent).
Even at $1.50 a day, Redbox remains "the best value in new-release home entertainment," says parent company Outerwall (OUTR) in a statement. "Consumers can continue to expect access to the newest movies months before streaming subscription services and daily prices that are still lower than video on demand," said Outerwall CEO J. Scott Di Valerio.
Movies on demand typically cost $2.99 to $5.99, depending on the format and video provider.
The Competition Strikes Back
Redboz faces mounting competition from video streamers Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN). Its third-quarter revenue dropped 5 percent to $1.4 billion, and same-store sales fell nearly 12 percent, according to Retailing Today. By the end of 2014, Redbox had expected to remove 500 to 700 under-performing kiosks.
Di Valerio said its price hikes represent "the first time Redbox has raised prices on Blu-ray discs and video games and only the second time in more than 12 years that we've raised prices on DVDs."
On any given Saturday in the fall, "State" fever hits West Point, Mississippi. U.S. Route 45 runs through the town -- lined with cars festooned with maroon and white, the colors of the Mississippi State Bulldogs. But what's most noticeable is the clank-clank-clank of cowbells.
Legend has it that the bell became a sign of support for the Bulldogs when a cow wandered across the field during a game between State and Ole Miss (the University of Mississippi) -- who have one of the most bitter rivalries in college football. Nobody quite remembers what year that game was played or even who won, but the cowbell is now a must-have for most fans at every State game.
For John Howell and Stephen Caples, Mississippi natives and State graduates, the bells have become far more than just a game day trinket. The two friends met during college and became close while playing in a band together. They would pore over business ideas at night during meals after their gigs.
"I don't know how many ideas we went through," Caples says of those brainstorms. But one night, they realized their business idea was hiding in plain sight. "So we're sitting at Ruby Tuesday in Starkville, and I said why don't we start with cowbells," Caples remembers. It was a simple idea, and for the two State grads, it seemed obvious.
The idea was to craft BattleBells that would last longer than a few games. They started by importing cowbells before finding a manufacturing partner just down the road from West Point that would change everything.
Credit: Stephen StinsonChapter One: The Young Guns
The business plan was simple enough to start. They pooled their own money to start the business, buying cowbells wholesale from a supplier in China, and putting the BattleBells name on them. But something wasn't quite right with that first generation of bells. The quality wasn't what they wanted (low-grade metal, rubber handles) and the sound of the bells wasn't nearly what they hoped it to be.
They took their plan to the Mississippi State's Entrepreneurship Center Advisory Board, which provides guidance to local startups. The board gave them $2,000 to help with the business. After their presentation to the board, Joe Jordan pulled them aside. He was a board member at the entrepreneurship center and an innovation manager with Innovate Mississippi, a nonprofit that pairs local businesses to promote economic development.
Jordan had previously met with Long Branch, a steel fabrication business that had been producing boiler component parts for 35 years. The owners wanted -- actually needed -- to expand beyond their traditional business and move into consumer products if they were going to keep growing.
BattleBells needed a U.S. manufacturer, and Long Branch needed new products. Jordan had found a perfect match.
Quality from Inside the State
"So we set up a presentation to Long Branch, and came with the whole idea of 'made in Mississippi,' rugged, steel, industrial, and wanted to brand it around that," Caples says. "They thought that was a great idea. They gave us a shot, they gave two kids a shot to really make this work."
Long Branch makes the Rolex of cowbells for BattleBells. They are made from thick stainless steel and feature mahogany or oak handles. They come with a lifetime warranty. But most important: they come with a steel clapper that rings so loud each BattleBell order comes with its own set of earplugs.
For a product so deeply rooted in Mississippi and tied to the frenzy of college football, success seemed attainable for BattleBells. But even for grads and fans Caples and Howell, the growth in the past two years has been astounding.
The football team, now one of the top-ranked teams in the nation, is in the midst of its best season in school history. The demand for Mississippi State-branded merchandise has skyrocketed and that's flowed over to BattleBells. They've gone from selling three bells a week in fall 2013 to selling more than 50 a week this football season. They are now on backorder online but are available at a number of local retailers and campus bookstores.
Despite the growth, the two college friends still run the business by themselves, even though Howell is now living in Georgia running a mattress store, and Caples is a web developer at Mississippi State. Once a week, Caples backs his sports car up to the Long Branch doors and loads all the bells set for shipment. Then he bags, tags, and sends them out.
Chapter Two: The Veterans
Ed Todd, 75, has been making boiler components his whole adult life. He was raised in West Point, and started Long Branch in 1979.
At 67, his partner Linda Pilley has spent the majority of her professional life in manufacturing and management. For them, partnering with BattleBells has brought new life to a business looking for something new.
Credit: Stephen Stinson
When Long Branch first met with Howell and Caples, now both 27, Pilley says she was impressed with their proposal and understanding of the market. "Initially, there was that learning curve, but the energy of what they brought to the table, their presentation was nice," she says. "They really knew how to pull all of that together, and had all the visuals to go with it. They knew what they were talking about, so that was of high interest to us."
She also saw that it would help her diversify the business -- but Todd was apprehensive. Boiler parts were what he knew. "Bells? What are you talking about, get outta here," he says chuckling, recalling the initial idea. "But I've sure had to eat crow, it's been a total shock, what has happened."
New Excitement for an Old Company
While the boiler business is still thriving, the arrival of BattleBells as increased Long Branch's sales by 4 percent in the first 14 months the company has made the bells.
But the real value may lie in what BattleBells has done for the psyche of this decades-old manufacturer. The young company has opened new potential for Long Branch, with a new brand and exciting possibilities.
Steel is being cut, welders are welding, and the fabricators on the floor of Long Branch are excited. Todd isn't afraid to admit he may have underestimated how much BattleBells could do for Long Branch.
"This is still cutting, and bending, and welding, which is just what boiler parts are," he says with a grin. "The apprehension was we're gonna spend too much time messing with this if it turns out to be nothing, and we gotta concentrate on what we need to be doing. Well, wrong, wrong, wrong."
When Pilley walks across the manufacturing floor, it's hard to ignore the motherly tone she has with the welders, steel cutters, and machine operators. It's not by design, but because of the love she has for the young guys in her shop. She feels the same way about Howell and Caples, who she affectionately calls her "BattleBells boys." Pilley's desk is the first stop inside the Long Branch offices, and it's usually the first-and the last-place Howell and Caples stop when they check in.
Chapter Three: Energy Meets Experience
While BattleBells and Long Branch have forged a serendipitous partnership, their need for each other is evident. Caples and Howell are young, energetic, and move fast with their ideas and design. But they don't know how to manufacture steel. Todd and Pilley, who bring over 70 years of business experience to the partnership, operate in a deliberate and calculated manner but they admit they don't have marketing experience. For BattleBells to succeed, these unlikely partners need each other.
Credit: Stephen Stinson
"People our age just expect things to happen, we don't realize it takes steps to get from point A to point D," Howell says. "And being able to look back at what they do, and apply that to what we do, and vice versa, and being able to speed up their processes, it just kind of multiplies each other."
While the partnership is only in its second year, Pilley says that the four have already established one of the business world's most vital attributes -- trust.
Growth Through Trust
"There are really a lot of young entrepreneurs that have the desire, but don't have the restraint or the discipline," she says. "I think the relationship has grown in trust. What has come about in season two is the trust and integrity of we can say what we want, and put the cards on the table, and all come to a conclusive decision."
And for Todd, a veteran manufacturer who hasn't had much experience with younger, more progressive business partners, the partnership has gone beyond anything he initially imagined.
"It's been great, again, to my surprise," he says. "They go to Linda, and Linda says this is how it's gonna be. It's unlimited what we can do, it's a matter of concept, will it sell, and yes, it's been a joy really. A pleasant surprise."
Experience and Exuberance
As the two styles have merged -- experience and exuberance -- they have both learned some great lessons and become a vital piece in each other's process. Along the way, Pilley has taken them in almost as excited, energetic grandsons. "Social media, Internet, they talked a language, I don't have a clue what any of this means," she says.
What she does know is that BattleBells has helped a decades-old business feel young again
"It's almost humbling," Caples says. "I can't believe a brainchild that came out of us has been able to do this to these guys. These guys are making a living off an idea we created." And for Howell, seeing the bells roll off the manufacturing line drives him to keep the brand growing.
"It inspires me to keep going at a pace that won't let you quit, it only makes you go faster and further than you thought the day before," Howell says. "Seeing people around here, them having their own pride, putting their work and their ideas into it, and it inspires them, it's a great feeling."
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Gas prices haven't been as low as they are today since the beginning of 2011, and pundits and analysts are tripping over themselves in a rush to predict how low prices can go.
Commodities trader Dennis Gartman recently predicted that oil prices would collapse, saying they could go "a lot lower, a lot lower." Goldman Sachs predicted crude oil will fall to $70 per barrel next year as part of a long-term decline in the commodity. Even the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted that U.S. gasoline prices would average just $2.94 per gallon next year, down from $3.39 in 2014.
Amid all of the predictions of declining energy prices, there are a few reasons to think oil and in turn gasoline prices may not stay down for long. And they're worth understanding whether you're buying gasoline or investing in oil stocks.
The Economy Is Still Going Strong
One of the biggest drivers of oil prices is the global economy, driven by the U.S. and China. Both countries are still going strong, with GDP growth of 3.5 percent and 7.3 percent, respectively, in the third quarter. The U.S. has come out of the recession and is reaching a somewhat steady growth pattern, and the Chinese government seems willing to do whatever it can to keep growing.
As long as the economy is doing well, there's no underlying reason to think demand for oil will shrink significantly. In fact, after declining since 2005, U.S. demand for oil has increased in the last two years on the back of a growing economy, and I wouldn't expect demand to go down now that prices are lower than they've been in three years.
Demand for oil isn't going down at the moment, but prices are, and supply is a big reason. But that excess supply may not last long.
OPEC May Be Ready to Push Oil Prices Higher
The oil cartel OPEC is meeting on Thursdsy, and a number of countries have already called for a reduction in oil supply to increase prices. In other words, when you're gathered for Thanksgiving, the leaders of OPEC will be deciding if they're going to increase the cost of gas.
A lot of OPEC countries have a vested interest in raising oil prices to support their own economies. Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia fuel their economy and provide massive energy subsidies to citizens because they're able to make money exporting oil. As export prices fall, so do cash flows to the government coffers.
There aren't many countries that are happy about low oil prices right now, and the political pressure to cut back on production, even a little bit, is mounting, which could lead to higher oil prices before you know it.
Replacements Are Far From Making a Dent in Oil Demand
One of the big reasons to think gas prices will come down long-term is because alternatives are becoming more attractive everyday. Electric cars are becoming popular, automakers are working on hydrogen fuel cells, and even high efficiency is reducing demand for oil.
In the long term, these alternatives will transition the world away from oil, but we're talking about a transition over 25, 50, even 100 years. A few months are a blip on the screen for alternatives to oil.
If technologies that would lead to a drop in demand aren't going to be ready for a decade, why would oil prices fall today?
That's why calls from pundits like Dennis Gartman saying that alternatives like fusion power are going to keep oil prices down are so off the mark. Fusion may very well prove to be the energy of the future in a few decades, but there are exactly zero utility-scale fusion plants in operation today, and researchers have yet to figure out how to scale the technology efficiently. Even bold predictions from Lockheed Martin (LMT) only predict nuclear fusion will be feasible in five years.
The same could be said for solar energy, wind energy, geothermal, and other oil alternatives that are in development stages and are years from breaking the grip oil has on the world. This is important because there's only so much slack in the oil market, and supply must generally meet demand in any given year for the economy to work. So, if technologies that would lead to a drop in demand aren't going to be ready for a decade, why would oil prices fall today?
Before you start thinking sub-$3-per-gallon gasoline is here for good, consider the reasons the commodity may rise sharply in the near future. The world needs oil, and the drop in prices may not last as long as you might think.
NEW YORK -- Thanksgiving could be the best day to shop all year.
An analysis of sales data and store circulars by two research firms contradicts conventional wisdom that Black Friday is when shoppers can get the most and biggest sales of the year.
Turns out, shoppers will find more discounted items in stores that are open on Thanksgiving. For example, there are a total of 86 laptops and tablets deeply discounted as door buster deals at Best Buy (BBY), Walmart (WMT) and others on the holiday compared with just nine on Black Friday, according to an analysis of promotions for The Associated Press by researcher MarketTrack.
And on the Web, discounts will be deeper on the holiday. Online prices on Thanksgiving are expected to be about 24 percent cheaper compared with 23 percent on Black Friday and 20 percent on Cyber Monday, according to Adobe (ADBE), which tracks data on 4,500 retail web sites.
The data is the latest proof that retailers are slowly redefining the Black Friday tradition. It's been the biggest shopping day of the year for years, mostly because it's traditionally when retailers pull out their best sales events. But in the last few years, retailers like the Gap (GPS), Target (TGT) and Toys R Us have started opening their stores and offering holiday discounts on Thanksgiving to better compete with online rivals.
"I was surprised, but it really shifted one day," said Tamara Gaffney, principal analyst at Adobe, which is based in San Jose, California.
I feel guilty for going out on Thanksgiving, but the deals are so much more attractive to me than on Black Friday.
Shoppers already are noticing the deals on Thanksgiving. Corey Grassell, 34, of Appleton, Wisconsin, said he plans to shop for deals on Thanksgiving and bypass Black Friday. That's after he grabbed bargains last year on the holiday, including a washer-dryer combination at Sears for about $800, a 50 percent discount.
"I feel guilty for going out on Thanksgiving, but the deals are so much more attractive to me than on Black Friday," he says.
But some industry watchers fear others won't shop on Thanksgiving, choosing to keep the day sacred. Those who wait instead to shop on Black Friday could wind up being disappointed with the leftover deals, they say. In fact, according to Deloitte Research's recent survey of shoppers, about two-thirds say they're not motivated to go out to stores Thanksgiving because it's important to be with family and friends.
"Shoppers could be disappointed and find that the hot items on their list are not in stock on Black Friday because of the early push by retailers," says Traci Gregorski, MarketTrack's vice president of marketing.
She says she's conducting a survey of shoppers after the holiday shopping weekend to see how retailers fared. "We want to get shoppers' perception of these deals," she says.
Moving Deals Ahead
Most big retailers acknowledge that they're starting to offer deals on Thanksgiving that previously were reserved for Black Friday.
Jeff Haydock, a spokesman at Best Buy, the nation's largest consumer electronics chain, said the best deals become available Thanksgiving when its doors open at 5 p.m. For example, one of Best Buy's Thanksgiving specials is a $899 55-inch LED Smart TV, the lowest price it has ever offered on a Samsung ultra-high definition TV of this size. That will be available on Friday -- if supplies last.
"Naturally, more of the deals are being pulled into Thursday because our stores are open," says Haydock.
Brian Hanover, a spokesman at Sears (SHLD), which is opening at 6 p.m. Thursday, also says Thanksgiving specials spill into Black Friday. But the quantities for the 1,000 door busters are limited. They include Nordic Track treadmills for $699.99, or an $800 discount, and a 36 percent savings on a Whirlpool laundry machine, regularly priced at $549.99.
"It probably behooves the customer to shop earlier on Thanksgiving," he says.
For its part, Walmart, the world's largest retailer, says it's spreading out discounts online and in the store. But Gregorski, of MarketTrack's says its "evident" in Walmart's circular that "the best deals are on Thanksgiving."
To be sure, for its two sales events on Thanksgiving, Walmart devotes 36 pages of its circular to discounted TVs, computers and other items. On Black Friday? Walmart has four pages of deals.
As the holidays approach, a lot of shoppers look to Black Friday for the best, hardest-to-find discounts, but in reality, the deals being offered aren't as good as you think. Here are a few deceptive Black Friday sales tactics that you and your budget should avoid.
