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Market Wrap: Early Rally Fizzles, U.S. Indexes End Lower

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Financial Markets Wall Street
Bebeto Matthews/AP
By MATTHEW CRAFT

NEW YORK -- Sudden twists in the price of oil and currency trading turned the stock market into a roller-coaster ride on Tuesday.

Major indexes opened lower as falling oil prices and a plunge in the Russian ruble weighed on markets. Less than an hour later, crude oil recovered and oil and gas producers surged, driving the Dow Jones industrial average up as much as 246 points in the morning.

All of the gains were wiped out in the last hour.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index (^GPSC) ended with a loss of 16.89 points, or 0.9 percent, to 1,972.74.

The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) lost 111.97 points, or 0.7 percent, to 17,068.87, while the Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) dropped 57.32 points, or 1.2 percent, to 4,547.83.

The turbulence drove traders into the safety of U.S. government bonds, driving prices up and yields down. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note sank to 2.06 percent from 2.12 percent late Monday, a big move in the normally placid market.

The volatility in financial markets is likely to last until oil prices find a stable floor, said Marc Zabicki, senior market strategist at Ameriprise Financial (AMP).

"Lower oil prices certainly are a net positive for U.S. consumer spending," he said. "But there's a contagion risk out there that investors have an eye on. Namely, what does it do to shale gas players, and what does it mean to the banks that lend to them?"

Since reaching a record high of 2,075.37 on Dec. 5, the S&P 500 has fallen into a slump, losing ground on six of the past seven trading days. Energy companies have been hit hard, a result of the ongoing slump in crude. The S&P 500 has lost 4.6 percent so far this month. December, usually one of the market's best months, hasn't lived up to its reputation.

The price of U.S. oil settled higher on Tuesday for the first time in a week, rising 2 cents to close at $55.93 a barrel in New York. Oil has fallen by nearly half since June as demand wanes and supply surges.

Major markets in Europe surged. France's CAC 40 gained 2.2 percent, while Germany's DAX picked up 2.5 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 climbed 2.4 percent.

John Manley, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo Fund Management, said that the trouble in developing countries highlighted the stability of the U.S. economy and its stock market.

"Yes, I do worry about Russia, yes I do worry about Venezuela, and you can't really have oil come down more than 45 percent without somebody having a problem, somewhere," Manley said. "But there's an old saying on Wall Street, 'In a dog-eat-dog market, get yourself a big dog,' and the U.S. is the ultimate big dog when it comes to this sort of thing."

Falling oil prices have also hammered markets in the Persian Gulf. Dubai's main market and Abu Dhabi's closed at their lowest points of the year on Tuesday with losses of 7 percent. Saudi Arabia's stock market fell 7.3 percent. Many are concerned that the drop in the price of oil will lead to less government spending and political unrest.

Back in the U.S., precious and industrial metals futures fell. Gold declined $13.40 to $1,194.30 an ounce, and silver fell 81 cents to $15.75 an ounce. Copper slipped two cents to $2.86 a pound.

Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils used by many U.S. refineries, fell $1.20 to close at $59.86 in London.

In other commodity trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange:
  • Wholesale gasoline dropped 3.5 cents to close at $1.541 a gallon.
  • Heating oil lost 4.2 cents to $1.960 a gallon.
  • Natural gas dropped 10 cents to $3.619 per 1,000 cubic feet.
-AP Markets Writer Steve Rothwell contributed to this report.

What to watch on Wednesday:

  • At 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, the Labor Department releases the Consumer Price Index for November, and the Commerce Department releases the current account trade deficit for the third quarter.
  • Federal Reserve policymakers release a statement on interest rates at 2 p.m.
Among companies reporting earnings:

 

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Is This RadioShack's Last Christmas?

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Earns Radio Shack
Al Behrman/AP
It seems as if the company that's been providing batteries and power adapters for decades is starting to run out of juice. RadioShack (RSH) is hitting new all-time lows this week, and it's going to be a challenge for it just to stick around beyond this holiday shopping season.

The chain of small-box strip mall shops that specialize in consumer electronics can't seem to get anything right these days. Store-level sales continue to slip. Losses continue to mount. Store closures and pink slips are the norm. With creditors running out of patience, it could mean that RadioShack is running out of time.

Another Step Down

RadioShack posted another brutal quarter late last week. Sales fell by more than 16 percent relative to the same period a year earlier, fueled partly by shuttered locations but mostly by a 13.4 percent drop in comparable-store sales over the past year.

The biggest drag at RadioShack is its wireless offerings. The company took a big gamble a few years ago, transforming its stores from a place for locals to grab small consumer electronics items to one that emphasizes mobile phone services from most of the leading carriers. RadioShack figured that it could fare better than the stand-alone shops of individual carriers by having a one-stop destination where customers can comparison-shop across the different providers. This was also the strategy that Best Buy (BBY) was taking on when it began to open smaller Best Buy Mobile shops.

It hasn't worked. RadioShack still devotes shelf space to many of the traditional retail consumer electronic products it used to carry. That segment is holding up relatively better, but we're still seeing negative sales growth there.

The Iffy Road to Merry Christmas 2015

RadioShack has started to remodel some of its stores. The extreme makeovers are paying off. Comparable-store sales at those stores are also negative, but they're holding up a lot better than the traditional format. The challenge for RadioShack is to see if it can invest in the remodeling efforts without going out of business first.

RadioShack has a financial problem. It is generating negative cash flow, and mounting losses mean that creditors are going to have to decide if they want to follow the chain down this rabbit hole. The chain is down to $62.6 million in liquidity as its long-term debt has ballooned to $841.5 million. This would be a thorny ratio if this were a profitable company, but it could be downright fatal for the profit-challenged entity that RadioShack has become today. It hasn't posted a profit since 2011, and analysts don't see that changing anytime soon.

The retailer knows that its days are numbered. On Tuesday it introduced its third chief financial officer since September, hiring an advisory firm to guide it through this difficult process. Filing for bankruptcy appears to be the only way out, but that in and of itself wouldn't mean the end of RadioShack. Many retailers have filed for bankruptcy reorganization, bouncing back with a second wind and stronger balance sheet. However, with RadioShack's relevance continuing to fade with consumers in an era of digital delivery and cheaper online solutions, it's hard to fathom the chain itself being around for too much longer.

Motley Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. Want to make 2015 your best investing year ever? Check out The Motley Fool's free report on one great stock to buy for 2015 and beyond.

 

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Low Gas Prices Could Save You $550 Next Year

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Oil Collapse What to Know
Ross D. Franklin/APAt an Arizona Quick Trip, gas prices were going down on Friday.
If you've been to a gas station in the U.S. at all in the last month, you know that the price of gas has been dropping like a rock. According to GasBuddy.com, the price of gasoline has fallen from $3.26 a year ago to $2.61 recently -- and the savings for consumers are starting to pile up.

The driver of the drop in gasoline is the price of oil, which has plunged from more than $110 in June to below $60 now, a level not seen since 2009. And the price keeps falling.


Brent Crude Oil Spot Price data by YCharts.

How Falling Gas Prices Can Save You $550

Falling gas prices can quickly add up to savings for consumers, and you may already be noticing the difference. The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that the average household will spend just less than $2,000 on gasoline next year, a savings of $550 from this year's total bill. Incredibly, gasoline prices are down since a few days ago when the prediction was made, so the savings could be even bigger if the price of gasoline continues to fall.

On top of the cost savings on each gallon, U.S. drivers continue to use less gas than we used to. Since 2005, oil consumption in the U.S. has fallen 8.8 percent due in large part to more fuel-efficient vehicles. If consumers don't suddenly rush out to buy Hummers now that gasoline is approaching $2 per gallon, this trend should continue, saving consumers even more money.

Saving on More Than Just Your Next Tank of Gas

Not only are gasoline prices lower than a year ago, the EIA is also predicting lower winter heating costs than last year. The average home heated with natural gas is expected to save $30, or 5 percent, compared to a year ago -- and if you're using heating oil, you could save $64, a 15 percent savings compared to a year ago.

Combined, consumers should be saving around $600 on energy in 2015. That money will likely go straight back into the economy, fueling economic growth outside of the energy sector.

Lower Energy Prices May Be Here to Stay

It's no guarantee that low energy prices are here to stay, but there are some positive long-term trends. Oil drilling has picked up in the U.S. and in countries outside of OPEC, flooding the market with supply and pushing prices lower. With OPEC losing its ability to control prices, we could see a new paradigm in energy.

There are also more energy alternatives than ever before. Solar energy can save consumers money in parts of the country, electric vehicles are eliminating some consumers' demand for gasoline, and even natural-gas-fueled buses are becoming increasingly popular for metro transit. Add it up and the U.S. could be spending less on energy for many years to come.

Where Will All the Money Go?

This is the question economists are asking. According to the Census Bureau, there are about 116 million households in the U.S., and if they all have $550 more to spend next year, it could mean a $63.8 billion boost for non-energy industries in 2015. Or if they choose to stash the cash instead, it could cause savings rates to go up, reducing debt in the economy and stabilizing personal finances. There are multiple potentially positive side effects of lower energy prices.

What we do know is that discretion over what consumers are spending on will increase if energy prices stay low. You may not have a choice whether or not to fill up your gas tank on the way to work, no matter the price, but you do have a choice about whether you'll spend energy savings on things like clothing or home improvements, or put the cash in the bank. What consumers do will tell us a lot about economic growth over the next few years.

Travis Hoium is a Motley Fool contributor. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. Looking for an investment to put your energy savings in? Check out The Motley Fool's free report on one great stock to buy for 2015 and beyond.

 

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SeaWorld Needs More Than a New CEO

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APTOPIX Baby Dolphin
Mike Aguilera/SeaWorld San Diego/AP
In a move that was probably long overdue, SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS) is making a change at the top. CEO Jim Atchison will step down next month. The board's chairman will be taking the helm, but only until the marine-life theme park operator finds a new leader.

He's not the only one moving on. Reports indicate that roughly 300 of its employees were given pink slips on Friday. If SeaWorld's battling the negative publicity stemming from the company's portrayal in the "Blackfish" documentary, it's not going to fare any better after letting hundreds of its workers go just days ahead of the holidays. The layoffs also contrast Atchison's treatment: He will be getting a severance package worth millions.

The change at the top isn't a surprise. SeaWorld has been a disaster since going public at $27 last year, and the stock has fallen all the way down to the mid-teens. Something's not right at SeaWorld, but it's something that may require more than simply a new chieftain.

Black and Blue Fish

Folks just aren't trekking out to SeaWorld these days. The parent company of SeaWorld, Busch Gardens and Aquatica experienced a 4.1 percent decline in attendance last year, and turnstile clicks are off by another 4.7 percent through the first three quarters of 2014.

It's not just an attendance problem. SeaWorld posted an 8 percent year-over-year decline in revenue for its latest quarter as a 5 percent slide in attendance was exacerbated by a 3 percent dip in revenue per guest. In other words, it's not just a matter of customers not showing up: When they do come, they're not spending as much as they used to for a day at the park.

SeaWorld doesn't like to talk about "Blackfish," but it's clearly playing a role in keeping potential patrons away. The documentary takes jabs at SeaWorld for keeping killer whales in captivity and performing for guests, and it wouldn't be a surprise if the slip in revenue per guest has something to do with visitors ashamed to buy SeaWorld merchandise.

This is the biggest problem at SeaWorld right now. A new CEO with fresh ideas could help, but the fading park operator simply needs to acknowledge that activists are only getting louder. SeaWorld's eventual response to "Blackfish" was to set up a page on its site explaining how the park's rescue efforts are saving animals. It also put out print ads in a couple of regional newspapers. It clearly hasn't been enough.

Activists managed to get music acts to bow out of a SeaWorld music festival earlier this year, and they're not showing any signs of letting up. This isn't some transitory cause that fizzles out, along the lines of Kony 2012 or Occupy Wall Street, once activists hop on a new movement. There are now more than 356,000 "Blackfish" fans on Facebook (FB), and SeaWorld hasn't done enough to win them over.

Tank You for Being a Friend

SeaWorld's recent announcement that it would be dramatically expanding its orca tanks should have been a well-received move, but instead of aligning itself with activist leaders to position this as a compromise, it just pushed out the news of the change that will take several years to be incorporated across all three SeaWorld parks. SeaWorld could have partnered with zoos -- a platform that is less controversial -- to sing the praises of kinder animal habitats.

There has also been the untimely emphasis on cutting costs. Beyond the hundreds of employees it displaced over the weekend, skimping on dough means that it's not adding the non-marine-life attractions that have been so effective at growing attendance at rival theme parks.

This should be a great time to be running an amusement park. The economy's on the rise. Gasoline is cheap. Hopefully SeaWorld's next CEO will recognize the opportunity to make a more public compromise with the right parties and invest in less controversial ways to make the parks more magnetic.

Motley Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Facebook. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. To read about our favorite high-yielding dividend stocks for any investor, check out our free report.

 

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Calorie Count Rules Extend to Some Alcoholic Drinks

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Calories on Menus-Alcohol
Rob Carr/AP
By Mary Clare Jalonick

WASHINGTON -- New menu labeling rules from the Food and Drug Administration will require chain restaurants with 20 or more outlets to list the amount of calories in alcoholic drinks, along with other foods, on menus by next November. The idea is that people often don't know -- or even think about -- how many calories they are imbibing.

But the rules don't apply to drinks ordered at the bar or any drinks that aren't listed on the main menu. The wine list will also be guilt-free -- individual calorie amounts aren't required there either. And unlike other beverages and foods, most bottles and cans don't have to list full nutritional information.

After years of lobbying for more nutritional information on alcoholic beverages, public health advocates say the menu labeling rules are a first step. "Alcoholic beverages are a key contributor to the calories Americans are consuming, and most of the time when people have a drink they have absolutely no idea what its caloric impact is," says Margo Wootan of the Center for Science in the Public Interest. Her group petitioned the government more than a decade ago to require that bottles and cans be labeled with robust nutritional information.

Industry Objections

The FDA's proposed menu labeling rules in 2011 exempted alcohol. But FDA Commissioner Margaret Hamburg said the agency decided to include it in the final rules this year after those who commented on the rule were largely in favor of such labeling because of its potential impact on public health.

The beer, wine and spirits industries objected, arguing that they were regulated by the Treasury Department, not the FDA, a setup that dates back to Prohibition. Treasury's oversight, which includes minimal input from FDA, has "well served the consuming public," a coalition of alcohol groups wrote in a 2011 comment asking to be left out of the menu labeling rules.

The new rules are designed to not be too burdensome for the alcohol industries or restaurants. Endless combinations of mixed drinks won't have to be labeled at bars, unless they are listed on a menu, and the FDA is allowing restaurants to use estimates of calories and ranges of calories without listing the exact amount in every different drink. That means menus will list the average amount of calories in a glass of red or white wine, but won't list calories by every brand of wine on the wine list. Same with beers and spirits.

Indirect Effect

So every winery or craft brewery won't have to pay to have their products' nutritional content analyzed -- for now, at least. The labeling rules have "more of an indirect effect on our business," says Wendell Lee of the California-based Wine Institute. Lee says brand-specific menu calorie labels could be especially burdensome on the wine industry, where every vintage and varietal is different.

Craft brewers, with many varied brands and styles, have similar concerns. The regulations "could have a slight chilling effect" on small breweries if some restaurants decide to go beyond them and list calories for individual beers, said Paul Gatza of the Brewers Association, which represents craft breweries.

The rules could have advantages too, he said. "The more customers know about a brewery, the more they feel connected with it," Gatza said.

Off the menu, labeling rules appear further away. For years, most alcohol companies have tried to put off mandatory bottle and can nutrition labeling as public health advocates have fought for it. Rules proposed in 2007 would have made such labels mandatory, but the FDA never made the rules final.

Voluntary Labels

Last year, Treasury's Alcohol and Tobacco Trade and Tax Bureau said for the first time that beer, wine and spirits companies could use labels that include serving size, servings per container, calories, carbohydrates, protein and fat per serving. The labels are voluntary and will likely be used mostly by liquor companies touting low calories and low carbohydrates in their products.

Current labeling law for bottles and cans is complicated. Wines containing 14 percent or more alcohol by volume must list alcohol content. Wines that are 7 percent to 14 percent alcohol by volume may list alcohol content or put "light" or "table" wine on the label. "Light" beers must list calorie and carbohydrate content. Liquor must list percent alcohol content by volume and may also list proof, a measure of alcoholic strength.

Wine, beer and liquor manufacturers don't have to list ingredients but must list substances people might be sensitive to, such as sulfites, certain food colorings and aspartame. Tom Hogue of the Tobacco Trade and Tax Bureau said the current goal is to make sure that companies that want to label may do so, and that labeling is consistent. It is important that labels "don't mislead the consumer," he said.

 

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Olive Garden May Be Finally Turning the Corner

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Olive Garden Breadsticks
Steve Helber/AP
There's dough in breadsticks and green in bottomless salad bowls at Olive Garden again. Parent company Darden Restaurants (DRI) posted better-than-expected quarterly results after Tuesday's market close.

Sales from continuing operations rose nearly 5 percent to $1.56 billion, with adjusted earnings more than doubling to 28 cents a share. Both marks landed just ahead of the $1.55 billion in sales and profit of 27 cents a share that the pros were forecasting. However, the big headline number in Darden's report is that Olive Garden managed to post its first quarter of positive year-over-year growth in comparable-store sales in more than a year. Olive Garden's 0.5 percent uptick in comps may not seem like much. It didn't keep pace with inflation or with what some of its casual-dining rivals are reporting, but it still snaps a streak of five quarters of negative comparable-restaurant sales growth at the once-fading Italian restaurant chain.

Olive Garden Outsmarts Red Lobster

Darden has a lot of young, exciting concepts. There's the beer-heavy Yard House, tropical Bahama Breeze, and health-conscious Seasons 52. There are also plenty of steakhouses, ranging from LongHorn on the casual end to the premium chophouse havens of Eddie V's and The Capital Grille. However, the lion's share of Darden's restaurants until earlier this year was Red Lobster and Olive Garden. The two chains combined for the majority of Darden's business, and when both concepts were struggling, they were dragging the parent down with their sloppy performances.

Darden sold off Red Lobster earlier this year, and it seemed as if Olive Garden would be the next major concept to go if it didn't shape up. After all, Red Lobster was performing horribly, but Olive Garden wasn't doing a whole lot better. Despite Darden owning several concepts, Olive Garden still accounts for 57 percent of the company's total sales, accounting for 838 of Darden's 1,520 eateries.

As Olive Garden goes, so goes Darden, and if we go by Tuesday's quarterly uptick in comps and the overall sharp pop in adjusted profitability, one can argue that there is a glimmer of hope here. It's not perfect; it's worth noting that traffic at Olive Garden was actually down in two of the quarter's three months. Higher pricing and the menu mix helped pull sales higher in each of those three months, but the turnaround will feel a lot more sustainable once customer counts begin growing consistently.

Giving Credit Where Credit Is Due

It remains to be seen if Olive Garden has truly turned things around, but at the very least it appears to be bottoming out. That's welcome news for investors, especially the income chasers who bought into Darden for its juicy 3.9 percent yield that would be sustainable only if Darden's fundamentals are stabilizing.

Some will give credit for Olive Garden's positive quarter to the board shakeup that was orchestrated by Starboard Value, but that would be a bit premature. The shareholder vote that booted out all of the previous board members took place in October, after Olive Garden had already broken through with its positive showing for the month of September.

Motley Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. To read about our favorite high-yielding dividend stocks for any investor, check out our free report.

 

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Avoid Secret Unit Pricing Tricks -- Savings Experiment

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Secret Unit Pricing Tricks
You may consider yourself to be a savvy shopper, but you could be overpaying almost every time you go to the grocery store. Here's why.

Unit prices are numbers you typically see on the shelves when you're shopping. They're there to provide a price that's based on a set unit measurement that you can compare with other brands to see if you're getting the best deal.

The problem is that you can't always rely on these unit prices. They're completely inconsistent from brand to brand, store to store, and state to state. Things that often vary per product are units of measurement and product size. Take cereal for example. Some brands may give a unit price per ounce while another may give you a per pound price.

So, how can you decipher all of this without losing yourself in all the math? With an app, of course. For instance, Unit Price Compare is a free android app that calculates the unit price of similar products sold in different sizes, quantities and units and shows you which item is less expensive. The app can compare more than one item at a time and even ranks the top 10 best deals. If you're an iPhone user, check out CompareMe Shopping Utility, which offers similar features.

So, before you head to the supermarket, download one of these apps. They'll help you make sense of confusing labels and, most importantly, save you money right away.

View Poll

 

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Consumer Prices Mark Biggest Drop Since 2008

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Gas Prices
LM Otero/AP

By Lucia Mutikani

U.S. consumer prices recorded their biggest drop in nearly six years in November as gasoline prices tumbled, but that did not change views the Federal Reserve would start raising interest rates in mid-2015.

The Labor Department said on Wednesday its Consumer Price Index fell 0.3 percent, the largest decline since December 2008, after being flat in October. For the 12 months through November, the CPI increased 1.3 percent, the smallest gain since February, after advancing 1.7 percent in October.

Economists who expected the CPI to dip only 0.1 percent from October said Fed officials were likely to shrug off the disinflationary trend as transitory when they issue a statement at the end of a two-day meeting later Wednesday. "Beside a brief mention about keeping an eye on oil prices, do not expect this inflation report to materially impact today's Fed decision," said Jay Morelock, an economist at FTN Financial in New York.

While inflation is running below the U.S. central bank's target of 2 percent, job growth has shifted into higher gear and the pace of slack absorption in the economy has accelerated in recent months. The Labor Department report also showed average weekly earnings, adjusted for inflation, recorded their biggest gain in six years in November.

Many economists expect the Fed could signal its intention for a mid-2015 interest rate hike on Wednesday. Such a signal could come through changes to the Fed's so-called forward guidance on rates and new economic projections.

Cautionary Note

Plunging crude oil prices, which hit a new 5-1/2 year low this week on increased shale production in the United States and slowing global demand, are keeping overall inflation in check for now. Underlying price pressures also ebbed a bit after showing some signs of creeping up in October.

Stripping out food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI edged up 0.1 percent after rising 0.2 percent in October. In the 12 months through November, the core CPI rose 1.7 percent after increasing 1.8 percent in October.

Low inflation could still urge caution for the Fed, which has kept its short-term interest rate near zero since December 2008. "The Fed will be walking a fine line in welcoming the healing effects that falling prices at the pump have on consumer balance sheets, while at the same time acknowledging that no one wants inflation that is too low," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago.

Gasoline prices have recorded their biggest drop since December 2008. They have now declined for five straight months. Within the core CPI, shelter costs increased 0.3 percent last month after rising 0.2 percent in October.

There were also increases in airline fares, medical care and alcohol prices. But new motor vehicle prices fell as did the cost of household furnishings, apparel and used cars and trucks.

 

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Dave & Buster's Isn't Playing Around This Time

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Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA. 29th Oct, 2014. 102914.Dave & Busters' bar, restaurant and arcade, located in the old movie theate
Marla Brose/Albuquerque Journal/Zuma Wire/Alamy Live News
They say that the worst thing a company can do after its IPO is to disappoint in its first quarter as a public company -- and Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY) came prepared to play hard.

The chain of 73 venues that combine full-service eateries with massive video game arcades saw its stock open nicely higher on Wednesday after posting better-than-expected quarterly results. Revenue climbed nearly 15 percent to $163.5 million, fueled partly by new openings over the past year but primarily by an 8.7 percent spike in comparable-store sales relative to last year's third quarter.

Dave & Buster's posted a small operating profit, reversing a year-ago loss. Its adjusted quarterly loss of 6 cents a share may not seem all that encouraging, but analysts were holding out for a larger deficit during the seasonally sleepy quarter.

Getting It Right the Second Time Around

The market wasn't exactly looking forward to Dave & Buster's IPO two months ago. Underwriters had to price the offering at the low end of its initial $16 to $18 range. However, the stock has been ticking higher in its first few weeks on the market, and its well-received quarterly report pushed the stock to open at $23 on Wednesday.

Why was Mr. Market initially uninterested in Dave & Buster's? It could have been that some of the recent restaurant IPOs have failed to live up to the initial hype. Another thing that may have played a part in Wall Street's apathy is that revenue inched just 5 percent higher in 2013.

However, perhaps the biggest reason the market yawned at the October IPO is that Dave & Buster's didn't exactly set the world on fire in its first run as a publicly traded company. For better or worse, the company was lumped together with Planet Hollywood and Rainforest Cafe when themed restaurants that were all the rage in the late 1990s. When the "eatertainment" craze subsided, investors moved on to the next shiny market trend.

Dave & Buster's was taken private in 2006 by Wellspring Capital Management, which eventually handed it off to another private equity firm, Oak Hill Capital Partners, in a $570 million transaction four years later.

The soft debut this time around is likely a blessing. Instead of hitting the market as part of a hot trend, Dave & Buster's is flying under the radar. That may seem odd for a chain of mammoth eateries that take up an average of 47,000 square feet each, but it's paying off for the early investors who got in a few weeks ago.

Setting the Stage for 2015

It's probably not fair to lump Dave & Buster's in with traditional casual-dining establishments. After all, a little more than half of its revenue comes from the games and other amusements available inside, from high-tech video games to stylish billiard halls. A lot of people come to Dave & Buster's without any intention of eating. Food and beverage sales make up less than 48 percent of its revenue mix, and that's something that even Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), with its rustic gift shops, can't say.

This is a good thing. Amusements are high-margin endeavors, and it also saves Dave & Buster's from having to live or die by the fluctuating commodity food prices like traditional restaurants do.

The one thing that investors should keep an eye on here is potential expansion. There are only so many of these large venues that a market can bear, and Dave & Buster's has already opened eight more so far this year, to hit 73. The chain's response has been to target smaller locations that are 25,000 to 35,000 square feet. That's not necessarily a bad thing, especially since they require smaller investments. However, investors chasing the current heady growth rate may want to dial back expectations in the future when expansion and comps growth aren't as kind. For now, it's a game that investors deem worth playing.

Motley Fool contributor Rick Munarriz owns shares of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. Check out The Motley Fool's free report on one great stock to buy for 2015 and beyond.

 

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U.S. Consumer Bureau Sues Sprint Over Cramming

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Sprint Corp. Stores Ahead Of Earnings Figures
Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg/Getty Images
By Alina Selyukh

WASHINGTON -- A U.S. consumer watchdog agency on Wednesday filed a lawsuit against wireless carrier Sprint (S) over unauthorized charges on customers' cellphone bill, a practice known as cramming.

In a third cramming-related government enforcement action this year, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau alleges that from 2004 to December 2013, Sprint billed its customers tens of millions of dollars in unauthorized third-party charges while keeping up to 40 percent of the revenue.
The Federal Communications Commission is also weighing a $105 million fine against Sprint for charging its customers for services that they had never requested. The case against Sprint marks the first joint public action by the FCC and the CFPB.

In July, the Federal Trade Commission sued T-Mobile (TMUS) over similar billing issues, and the FCC and the FTC settled such a case with AT&T (T) in October.

'We Strongly Disagree,' Sprint Says

The bureau now argues that Sprint failed to properly monitor vendors to whom it had outsourced the processing of Sprint customers' payments for digital purchases, resulting in illegitimate charges for text message services that many consumers were unaware of. The agency is seeking refunds and penalties.

"We strongly disagree with [CFPB's] characterization of our business practices ... Sprint took considerable steps to protect wireless customers from unauthorized third-party billing," spokeswoman Stephanie Vinge Walsh said in a statement. "It appears the CFPB has decided to use this issue as the test case on whether it has legal authority to assert jurisdiction over wireless carriers," she said in an email.

The case is Consumer Financial Protection Bureau v. Sprint Corp, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 14-cv-9931.

 

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Fed Promises 'Patient' Approach to Interest Rate Hikes

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WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve is signaling that it's edging closer to raising interest rates from record lows because of a strengthening U.S. economy and job market. But it is promising to be "patient" in determining when to raise rates.

The Fed said Wednesday after a two-day meeting that this "patient" approach is consistent with what it called its "previous" guidance that it expected to keep the rate near zero for a "considerable time."

The Fed gave no specific guidance on when the first rate hike might occur.

Most private economists believe that the first rate hike will occur in June as long as the inflation outlook doesn't remain persistently below its target rate of 2 percent. In an updated economic forecast, the Fed lowered its inflation forecast for next year to 1 percent to 1.6 percent.

Three Dissenting Votes

The Fed's action was approved on a 7-3 vote. The fact that three Fed officials dissented from the majority view was evidence of the internal battles inside the Fed at the moment as the central bank tries to transition from an extended period of ultra-low interest rates to a period when it begins to raise rates. The Fed has not raised rates in more than eight years.

The dissents included Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, two of the Fed's leading hawks, officials who believe the Fed needs to emphasize the fight against inflation more than the battle to boost employment. But Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Fed's Minneapolis regional bank, also dissented. He is a leading dove, an official who has pushed for more efforts to boost employment.

The Fed's decision to move to a "patient" approach had been expected given the significant gains this year in the labor market. The economy created 321,000 jobs in November, keeping on track for the healthiest year for job growth since 1999, with the unemployment rate now down to 5.8 percent. That is close to the 5.2 percent to 5.5 percent unemployment rate that the central bank considers maximum employment.

'Patient' Followed 'Considerable'

The Fed is following the pattern it set in 2004 when it moved away from the phrase "considerable period" in January of that year and substituted "patient." It followed that in June with the first rate hike.

The Fed's key short-term rate has been at a record low near zero since December 2008. When the Fed does begin raising rates, the expectation is that the rate increases will be a gradual process implemented with small quarter-point moves that will leave consumer and business interest rates at historically low levels for a considerable period.

At the previous meeting in October, the Fed brought to an end its third round of bond purchases. Those bond purchases have pushed the Fed's holdings to close to $44.5 trillion, more than four times the level of the Fed's balance when the financial crisis hit in the fall of 2008.

While it is not adding to those bond holdings, the Fed is maintaining the current record-high level which is continuing to exert downward pressure on long-term rates. =Supporters of the bond purchases defend them as a successful attempt by the Fed to use all tools at its disposal to battle the worst economic downturn the country has seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

But critics of the move contend that the Fed will find it difficult to sell off its massive holdings without jolting financial markets. They also worry that the sharp increase in the money supply that was a result of the bond purchases will at some point trigger unwanted inflation and potentially inflate dangerous asset bubbles.

 

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Market Wrap: Pledge from the Fed Sends Stocks Up

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Ramon Espinosa/APStudents watch a live speech Wednesday by Cuban President Raul Castro about Cuba's restoration of relations with the U.S.
By Steve Rothwell

NEW YORK -- A pledge from the Federal Reserve to remain "patient" when deciding when to lift interest rates gave the stock market its biggest gain in more than a year.

Stocks rose from the open on Wednesday, led by gains for the energy sector, as oil prices showed signs of stabilizing after their big slump in recent months. The market's gains were extended after Fed policymakers released a statement following the end of its most recent policy meeting.

A near six-year bull run for the stock market has come against a background of exceptional stimulus from the Fed. At the start of the month investors had worried that signs of strengthening hiring would lead the Fed to bring forward the start of rate increases.

"The Fed is going to be our friend for a very long time," said Burt White, chief investment officer for LPL Financial. "Growth continues to be good and corporate America is healthy. If you mix all that together it translates to rising stock prices."

Energy Sector

The Standard & Poor's 500 index (^GPSC) rose 40.15 points, or 2.04 percent, to 2,012.89. That was the biggest gain for the index since October 2013 The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) rose 288 points, or 1.7 percent, to 17,356.87. The Nasdaq composite climbed 96.48 points, or 2.1 percent, to 4,644.31.

Stock investors have had a wild ride in the final quarter of the year. The market plunged at the start of October on concerns that global growth was slowing. Then it rebounded and surged to record levels at the start of December, before falling sharply last week as the price of oil collapsed, dragging down energy stocks.

On Wednesday, energy stocks led gains for the S&P 500 index as the price of oil steadied. Stocks in the sector jumped 4.2 percent, reducing their losses for the year to 13 percent. The price of U.S. oil rose Wednesday after the Energy Department reported a decline in inventories, a turnaround from a Tuesday report of increased inventories from the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group.

Benchmark U.S. crude rose 54 cents to close at $56.47 a barrel in New York. Brent crude for February delivery, a benchmark for international oils used by many U.S. refineries, rose $1.17 to close at $61.18 a barrel in London. The January Brent contract expired Tuesday at $59.86.

Trade With Cuba

Stocks that were linked to Cuba surged after President Barack Obama announced the re-establishment of diplomatic relations on Wednesday and declared an end to America's "outdated approach" to the communist island in a historic shift aimed at ending a half-century of Cold War enmity. Copa Airlines (CPA), a Panama City-based carrier, and one of the most successful airlines in Latin America, jumped. Its stock rose $6.36, or 7.2 percent, to $94.48 on the news. The Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund, a closed-end fund designed to take advantage of greater trade with Cuba, surged $1.97, or 28.9 percent, to $8.78.

Among individual names, FedEx (FDX) was one of the biggest losers in early trading after in the shipping company reported earnings that fell short of Wall Street's expectations. The company said a jump in plane maintenance costs blunted gains the company reaped from managing costs, lowering its pension expense and growing its export package revenue. The company's stock dropped $6.48, or 3.7 percent, to $167.78.

Russia also remained in focus on concerns about the impact of the recent slide in the ruble. The currency has lost more than 50 percent of its value this year. After falling again early Wednesday, the ruble recovered and was 12 percent higher at 61.66 rubles to the dollar.

The currency recovered some of its losses Wednesday after Russian authorities indicated that they would sell foreign currency to relieve pressure on the ruble. The Russian currency has suffered in the wake of sliding oil prices and sanctions imposed over Russia's involvement in Ukraine's crisis.

In government bond trading, prices fell. The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury note, which rises when prices fall, climbed to 2.13 percent from 2.08 percent a day earlier.

The price of gold was little changed from Tuesday at $1,194.50 an ounce. Silver rose 18 cents to $15.93 an ounce and copper rose a penny to $2.87 a pound.

What to Watch Thursday:
  • The Labor Department releases weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.
  • At 10 a.m., Freddie Mac releases weekly mortgage rates, and the Conference Board releases leading indicators for November.
These selected companies are scheduled to release quarterly financial results:
  • Accenture (ACN)
  • Cintas (CTAS)
  • ConAgra Foods (CAG)
  • Nike (NKE)
  • Pier 1 Imports (PIR)
  • Red Hat (RHT)
  • Rite Aid (RAD)
  • Winnebago Industries (WGO)

 

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6 Big Reasons Your Budget Isn't Working

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Most of us, at one point or another, have blown our budgets.

We have a bad month, or we let ourselves run a little wild, and we wind up spending more money than we originally intended. (Sometimes much more.)

But if you find yourself running into this situation on a regular basis, it's time to figure out what's going wrong. Chances are you've fallen into one (or more) of these six common budget traps.

Here's how to identify your mistakes, and how to set them right.

1. Your Budget is Too Strict

If you see your budget as an overbearing parent who won't allow you to do anything nice, it's no wonder you have trouble sticking to it.

Yes, a budget is meant to put some limits on your spending, but that doesn't mean it should keep you from having any fun at all.

Build in some treats for yourself, even if they're modest. You may not be able to afford to eat out at a posh restaurant every weekend, but maybe you can get takeout food on the occasional Friday night.

Perhaps you can't spend $150 at the hair salon, but you can swing $30 at a nail salon. Maybe you decide you'll skip the bars for a month, in order to save enough money to get a new snowboard.

Give yourself a break every now and then (within reason), and you'll find it much easier to be disciplined on the whole.

2. It's Not Realistic

Setting goals is great -- but don't shoot for something that's not within your grasp. Reducing your grocery bill to $150 per month (for a single person) is realistic; reducing it to $25 per month is not.

Make sure your budget allows for all the reasonable expenses you can expect to incur throughout the month.

Be realistic about how much money you'll comfortably need for non-negotiable expenses like groceries, heat and health care. You can make up the difference in other areas that are more discretionary, such as clothing and cable TV, but you need to be honest about what types of costs you're working with.

3. You've Left Off Irregular Expenses

You've remembered to budget for your monthly bills, but what about bills that are due quarterly or annually, such as your water bill, car registration renewal, holiday travel, summer camp fees, dentist co-pays,or birthday gifts for your children?

Find a spot for these items in your budget by dividing your annual costs by 12, then putting aside that amount each month. If you spend $300 each year on a flight to your grandma's house for Thanksgiving, for example, set aside $25 per month into a "Thanksgiving airfare" fund.

4. Impulse Purchases

This is by far the easiest way to set your budget off-course -- and it isn't limited solely to shopping sprees. You can also commit an impulse purchase by grocery shopping without a list, giving into promotions that tempt you to buy things you don't need, and failing to compare prices or shop around for the best bargain.

The problem with impulse purchases is that they're easy to rationalize. We find ways to convince ourselves that we either "need" an item, or that we're "saving money" by purchasing this item.

Oreo cookies and Coca-Cola (KO) are luxuries, not necessities, even if they broadly fall under the category of "groceries." By redefining "necessity," you can avoid the rationalization that allows you to make an impulse purchase. Don't trick yourself into thinking that it's okay to make these impulse purchases at the store, under the guise that you're just spending on your "needs."

Similarly, you're not "saving" money by purchasing a discounted item. If you score a 50 percent discount on an item that you otherwise wouldn't have purchased, you haven't "saved" a dime. (Glass half-empty, I know.)

Redefine "saving" to mean money that's still in your wallet - not the discount that we get by purchasing clearance items on impulse.

5. You Aren't Prepared for Emergencies

Another big way people blow their budgets is by failing to plan for the unexpected. You may not be able to predict when you'll get sick or your car will start making odd noises, but you can anticipate that something unexpected is bound to happen sooner or later -- and you can set some money aside so you're prepared for it.

Aim to build up an emergency savings fund of three to six months' worth of your income. Hopefully you'll never have to touch it, but if something unfortunate does befall you, you'll be able to handle it without incurring a financial hit.

6. It's Too Difficult

If you absolutely hate budgeting, you won't be likely to stick with it for long. Make sure you're using a system that feels user-friendly and is easy for you to understand.

If you hate dealing with numbers, use budgeting software that does the math for you. If you can never keep track of your receipts, use a program that connects with your credit and debit cards and tracks your purchases automatically. Play to your strengths and work around your weaknesses and you'll find it much easier to stay on track.

Paula Pant ditched her 9-to-5 job in 2008. She's traveled to 30 countries, owns six rental units and runs a business from her laptop. Her blog, Afford Anything, is a gathering spot for revolutionaries who understand that they can afford anything -- just not everything. Visit Afford Anything to learn how to shatter limits and live life on your own terms.

 

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Which Company Has the Most Tentacles in Your Life?

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The megacap companies Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT) and General Electric (GE) are household names because, and they dominate tech, financial services, retail and energy. Which one touches your life the most today -- and likely in the future?

Most Valuable Company

Apple is the most valuable company in the world, worth $659 billion as of this writing, and it derives more than half its revenue from smartphones. Though it seems some people can't live without their electronic umbilical cord, it has plenty of competition from Google and its Android system as well as Samsung (SSNLF) and others. It's making a foray into financial services with ApplePay -- but so is Google with Google Wallet. Apple may satisfy your entertainment and tech needs for now, but it doesn't have nearly as many tentacles as Google.

Search for Your Car, Your Utility Provider?

Search giant Google is already experimenting with being your service provider. From there it's not such a farfetched idea to providing your utilities. Fully 64 percent of Americans would consider signing up with a non-utility provider like Comcast (CMCSA), Google or SolarCity (SCTY), according to a recent Shelton Group survey. Google's Nest thermostat gives the company a tiny toehold into the Internet of Things trend. Google may also satisfy your automotive needs down the road with self-driving cars, now with more than 750,000 test miles under their belted radials. You can see one in action at its YouTube channel. By the way, Google also owns YouTube. The company has a well-funded innovation laboratory called Google X.

50 Brands You May Know

For now, staid Berkshire Hathaway may insinuate itself more in every aspect of your life with insurance (including GEICO), real estate, retail (such as Dairy Queen and See's Candies), utility companies, pipeline companies and oil and gas production chemicals. Through its investing arm, it owns stock in virtually every sector of the economy. Berkshire Hathaway even has a hand in your underwear, so to speak, as it owns Fruit of the Loom, one of its more than 50 brands.

Womb to Tomb

Amazon aims to be your grocer, entertainer, gadget provider and retailer of everything -- and soon delivered the same day, by drones. Sales have grown from $15 million in 1996 to net sales of $20.58 billion in its third quarter alone. One of its newer challenges is going against consumer goods giants Procter & Gamble (PG) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB) with Amazon Prime diapers.

For Americans in middle to lower socioeconomic brackets, Walmart -- America's largest private employer -- supplies many of their daily needs, including financial services, groceries, medical services and coffins. The company's 2014 annual report revealed $473 billion in 2013 net sales. Of that, global e-commerce rose 30 percent to $10 billion. Walmart has throughout its 50 years made smaller businesses obsolete, and it pressures suppliers into squeezing margins to keep those everyday low prices.

The 500-Pound Octopus

Century old General Electric has operations in 170 countries in aviation, transportation, medical technology, infrastructure and energy -- or as GE simply categorizes its business divisions: curing, building, moving and powering.

GE is involved in plenty of blue sky thinking, such as robotics and 3-D printing for industrial uses. In the U.S. you may use a GE appliance, but most of the ways the company interacts with you are behind the curtain. Of all these companies, GE is the company most involved in your continued good health, with millions of dollars spent on medical and biotech research.

Its global reach is powerful: in China, the company is helping develop natural gas infrastructure; it won $40 billion in engine business at the Dubai Air Show in two days; and over the last decade has tripled revenues from emerging markets like Algeria and Indonesia. GE Capital is strong in in international finance, and GE expects its portfolio to remain 30 percent weighted to specialty finance.

From Dusk to Dawn, Around the Globe

It's a tough call which company has the strongest grip on your life, but these companies are aiming every day to strengthen that grip and simultaneously their grasp on your wallet.

 

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Do You Spend More Time Researching Your Phone or 401(k)?

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People tend to spend about the same amount of time researching which smartphone they'll buy as they do in deciding how to invest their 401(k) retirement plan assets. One decision will probably affect you for a year or two, while the other could impact your standard of living for decades.

A recent survey commissioned by Charles Schwab (SCHW) of 1,000 workers with 401(k)s found that workers greatly value having a 401(k) plan at work, but many do not take full advantage of the benefits being offered. Schwab says that many companies and many employees accept the default mode of investing -- choosing target-based funds that are based solely on one factor: your age. If you're 35 now, you might select a target-dated fund that "expires" in 2055, about the time you might choose to retire. But Steve Anderson, president of Schwab Retirement Plan Services, calls that "a one-size fits all approach."

Instead, Schwab is advocating services -- not surprisingly, like the one it offers -- that provide workers with more options and more personalized investment advice. "Managed account services take advantage of all the information we have: age, salary, account balance, state of residency (important because of tax consequences), Social Security projections, if you have another retirement plan," according to Anderson. "All of those factors can help build out a personalized portfolio."

More Time Usually Spent Planning Vacations, Buying Cars

Schwab's survey found that only 11 percent of respondents say they had spent as much as five hours trying to evaluate their 401(k) investment options. By comparison, 39 percent spent at least that much time planning their next vacation and more than half invested that much time researching their next car purchase. "I was not surprised by that," said Anderson. "It validates what we know. If people are not comfortable managing their assets, they'll shy away from it."

He says it comes down to behavioral economics. "When employers build in automated decisions, employees can override, but they usually don't." That's one reason that target dated funds are so popular. They're easy. You can make a choice and forget about it, but it may not be the best choice for your long-term financial success. Even when professional advice is offered, only 23 percent of the survey respondents took the opportunity to use it. That's why Schwab says workers would benefit if more plans had an automated feature to provide managed account services for employees contributing to the 401(k) plan.

"When someone goes through that encounter of getting professional advice, they're more confident and have greater staying power when the market is in turmoil," said Anderson. He notes that a lot of people did not get professional advice back in 2008 and 2009, when the recession was in full swing. Those people often sold at a loss, when the market was already sharply lower, and they were too scared to get back into stocks. As a result, they've missed out on most of the bull market that is now 5 years old. "If you have a planner there with you," says Anderson, "you may not make a knee-jerk reaction."

Schwab administers more than 1,200 retirement plans, representing more than $100 billion in assets and 1.3 million plan participants.

 

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10 Retirement Resolutions for 2015

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By Emily Brandon

The new year offers an opportunity to review your retirement finances and make changes that will boost your chances of a secure retirement. Consider these retirement-related new year's resolutions for 2015.

Bump up your savings rate. Try to save at least 1 percent more next year. If you get a raise, redirect part of it to a retirement or investment account. A portion of year-end bonuses, tax refunds or other windfalls can also be used to jump-start your retirement savings. "The earlier you start, the lower your savings rate can be," says Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College and co-author of "Falling Short: The Coming Retirement Crisis and What to Do About It."

Claim retirement saving tax breaks. Investors can defer paying income tax on up to $18,000 contributed to a 401(k) and $5,500 deposited in an individual retirement account in 2015. For savers ages 50 and older, these limits jump to $24,000 in a 401(k) and $6,500 in an IRA. Alternatively, you could contribute the same amounts to a Roth 401(k) or Roth IRA and prepay the tax now at your current rate, and then withdraw the money tax-free in retirement. Low and moderate income households may also be able to claim the saver's credit on their 401(k) and IRA contributions.

Get your employer to chip in. The fastest way to grow your 401(k) balance is to take advantage of employer contributions to your account. Make sure you save enough to get as much of your employer match as you can. Also, pay attention to your company's vesting schedule, which determines if you get to keep your employer contributions if you leave the company.

Rebalance. Your investments likely shifted in value over the course of the year, and are no longer in line with your target asset allocation. "A lot of people's equity portion of their asset allocation is probably high right now compared to what their goal is," says Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz, a certified financial planner and co-author of "The Charles Schwab Guide to Finances After Fifty: Answers to Your Most Important Money Questions." "You might need to shift from equity to bonds to get back to the asset allocation that is part of your plan."

Scrutinize your investment fees. Take a look at how much you are paying in fees and expenses on your investments. Consider switching to similar lower cost funds when they are available.

Project your retirement income. Get an idea of how much you have saved for retirement, and compare it to where you need to be to cover all your bills. "Take stock of what you have and review your balance sheet," Schwab-Pomerantz says. "Calculate how much money you have accumulated, your assets, your debt and your liabilities, and see what ultimately you have to go toward retirement." This exercise can be reassuring if you are on track and motivate you to make changes if your projected retirement income won't be enough.

Find painless ways to cut expenses. If you are spending too much, the new year is a good time to identify areas to make cuts. "A great way to do that is to itemize your monthly expenses, categorize them as essential and nonessential and make saving an essential line item," Schwab-Pomerantz says. "Look at 2014, study the buckets of money where you spent and look for areas where you can cut back, so you can increase the saving line item."

Familiarize yourself with Social Security. Create an online account at socialsecurity.gov/myaccount to take a look at how much you have paid into Social Security and get a personalized estimate of how much you will receive in retirement. Then explore potential ways you could increase your monthly payments, perhaps by delaying benefits or coordinating payments with a spouse. "If you take your Social Security benefit at 70 instead of 62, the monthly benefit is higher," Munnell says. "That's one of the key benefits of prolonging your work life or at least deferring when you claim: You get a much higher monthly amount that is inflation-indexed and goes on for as long as you live."

Decide if you will work in retirement. Working part time in retirement can improve your cash flow, give your retirement accounts more time to grow and allow you to delay claiming Social Security in order to get a bigger benefit. "Earning even a slim income in retirement can make a huge financial difference," says Chris Farrell, author of "Unretirement: How Baby Boomers are Changing the Way We Think About Work, Community, and the Good Life." "The key retirement-planning question is: How can I earn an income after my initial career and, I would add, do something I enjoy, something I feel good about at the same time?"

Plan how you will spend your time. Retirement can become lonely and boring if you don't have a plan for how you will fill your days. The transition into retirement can be easier if you set up volunteer positions, hobbies or social groups before you retire. "Consider doing new things like volunteering, signing up for a class, joining an a cappella group or mastering the smartphone," says Jane Pauley, author of "Your Life Calling: Reimagining the Rest of Your Life." "It expands your network of relationships, which can lead to unexpected opportunities."

Emily Brandon is the senior editor for Retirement at U.S. News. You can contact her on Twitter @aiming2retire, circle her on Google Plus or email her at ebrandon@usnews.com.

 

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3 Reasons Your Investments Didn't Do So Great in 2014

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By Matthew Amster-Burton

It's been a great year for investors -- or so you'd think. Over the 12 months ending Dec. 12, the S&P 500 (^GPSC), including dividends, is up 12.6 percent. A balanced portfolio of 60 percent U.S. stocks and 40 percent bonds, represented by Vanguard's Balanced Index Fund (VBIAX), is up 10.7 percent.

In a recent survey on investor satisfaction by investment firm SigFig, 38 percent of respondents said they were somewhat or extremely happy with their portfolio performance in 2014, and another 42 percent were neutral. Only 20 percent were unhappy with their portfolio.

Yet most investors' portfolios have underperformed both the S&P 500 and a balanced portfolio benchmark. The median investor in a data analysis by SigFig earned just under 4.5 percent over the 12 months ending Dec 12. The top quartile of investors -- those who enjoyed better returns on their portfolios than at least 75 percent of the crowd -- earned a median 12-month return of 16.5 percent. The bottom 25 percent suffered a median loss of 15.7 percent.


To state the obvious, no one wants to be in the bottom 25 percent of anything -- much less when it comes to one's current or future source of livelihood. And just to be clear, being in the top 25 percent doesn't mean your investment strategy is perfect, either. Chances are, you may have simply gotten lucky. Still, when we look at the investing behavior of the bottom 25 percent and that of the top 25 percent of investors, a few common mistakes emerge that are best avoided by everyone:

1. Higher Fees

The underperformers are paying more in trading and fund fees -- 1.1 percent of their portfolio value vs 0.6 percent for the outperformers. Still, that's not nearly enough to explain the difference in performance between the median "outperformer" and the median "underperformer." Paying an additional 0.5 percent in fees should knock down my portfolio's performance by 0.5 percent, not 31.4 percent.

2. Portfolio Turnover

Underperformers have more portfolio turnover -- 35 percent - than outperformers, with 18 percent. Higher portfolio turnover (i.e. more trading) has been linked to lower gains in multiple studies. And in this one, it is directly related to higher fees. As a percentage of their portfolio, the typical underperformer in the dataset pays 25 percent more in fund expenses, but more than five times in trading fees.

3. Playing Portfolio Roulette

Both outperformers and underperformers in the analysis had an equal percentage -- about 80 percent -- of their trades executed in individual stocks, rather than mutual funds or ETFs. Trading stocks is often like playing roulette with your portfolio: you may get lucky and win. Or you may lose. And winning doesn't mean you made the right bet: you may have picked a winning stock this time, but that is not a "winning" strategy for the long term. In the same way that betting on black at roulette may win a single spin of the wheel but will lose to the house in the long term, the evidence strongly suggests that selecting individual stocks can produce short-term outperformance, but will underperform the broader market over time.

A Matter of Overconfidence?

Meanwhile, in its investor satisfaction survey, SigFig asked investors, "How do you think your portfolio will perform next year?" About as well as the market, 72 percent of respondents said. Better than the market, another 18 percent said.

Now, beating -- or even matching -- the stock market is not a worthwhile goal in itself. People should invest according to their risk tolerance, which for most investors means a healthy serving of safer bonds along with riskier stocks. Comparing investor returns to market indices is also imperfect, because indices may be unmanaged, may be market weighted, and do not incur fees and expenses.

And if you don't want to be part of the majority of investors with unfounded great expectations, here are a couple of time-tested strategies that will help you invest better in 2015:
  • Invest in diversified, low-cost index funds and ETFs.
  • Avoid frequent trading, which is associated with lower performance.
  • Don't try to time the market. Yes, some investors may get lucky. But to time the market successfully and repeatedly is hard. And it often involves bad investor behavior: selling out at a bad time or holding onto losing stocks even if they're only dragging your retirement savings down.
Matthew Amster-Burton is a contributing writer at SigFig. Investors use SigFig to track, improve and manage over $300 billion.

 

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Tweet Jam: Successful Seniors' Surprising Secrets

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How do you determine how much you need to save for retirement? Is $1 million enough? And how do you save for retirement without drastically changing your lifestyle?

These are just some of the key questions that MoneyTips.com CEO Marc Diana and I asked 25 of the top voices in personal finance and wealth during last month's #RetireeNextDoorsocial jam. During our one-hour virtual discussion, Twitter (TWTR) participants generated 18.7 million impressions and reached more than 4.4 million unique users, according to analytics platform Nuvi.com. More importantly, the advice from the nearly 1,500 Tweets served as a virtual playbook for anyone looking to dramatically improve their chances of one day retiring in style.

MoneyTips has compiled the best of the session in the free eBook: #RetireeNextDoor Retweetables: 100 Best Retirement Tweets. I've highlighted several of the most thought-provoking responses and the best guidance from some of the smartest minds in finance (often ending with the hashtag #RetireeNextDoor:

What is the hardest part about planning for retirement? One in three baby boomers has no retirement plan, according to a 2014 financial wellness study by Moneytips.com. So, it should come as no surprise that the community's response was the emphatic advice, "Get started!"
  • Scott Maderer ‏‪@FocusdIntensity: Getting started. Inertia takes over it is easier to do NOTHING than something.
  • Donna Freedman ‏‪@DLFreedman: Having to do it while you're also living a NON-retired life. Can be hard to pare away funds.
  • Charles Rotblut @CharlesRAAII: Hardest part of planning for retirement is the uncertainty of lifespan, inflation and future returns.
Several panelists acknowledged the difficult tradeoff between the many valid uses of money today versus funding a vaguely understood lifestyle years down the road.
  • Kimberly Palmer @alphaconsumer: It's hard to deny yourself things today in order to benefit the far-off future.
  • Emily Guy Birken ‏@EmilyGuyBirken: Staying focused. There are so many valid uses for our money. It can be very tough to prioritize retirement.
The key, according to certified financial planner Michael Kay ‏(@FinLifeFocus) is "Getting clear on what you want in retirement. How do you want to live this stage of your life?" Emily Guy Birken added a sense of immediacy to Michael's observation: "Remember that your future self is still you, not a stranger even though it feels that way. So take care of future you."

That discussion led to the question, "How do you determine how much you need to save for retirement? Is $1 million enough?"
  • Tiff TheBudgetnista: It helped me determine that I need 5 million to have 250k in passive income when I retire.
Several panelists weighed in with tips on how to set a dollar figure that works for you:
  • Joe Saul-Sehy @AverageJoeMoney: Start backward: what do you want, how much do you have, then find return you need to grab it.
  • Michael Kay @FinLifeFocus: You need a plan that covers your fixed costs and then anticipates the variables-travel, hobbies, medical.
  • Linda P. Jones ‏‪@LindaPJones: Determine what your lifestyle will be. Do you plan to downsize your home? Be a snowbird? Establish priorities.
  • Doug Nordman ‏‪@TheMilitaryGuid: Forecast your retirement spending, and save 25x that amount. Adjust when you're within 5 yrs.
Robert Kiyosaki, New York Times No, 1 best-selling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," swam against the tide. He advocated against building any retirement nest egg. He issued this stark warning: Instead, he advised: "People have to stop collecting dollars and instead collect cash flowing assets and investments."

When it came time to sharing the best advice (received or given) about retirement planning, the entire community jumped at the opportunity to spread their expertise: Elle's advice to automate is one I can't agree with strongly enough. It's advice I offer all clients to avoid mistakes, which was the basis for the next question during the tweet jam. Many panelists observed that 401(k)s are a common source of retirement mistakes:
  • Joe Saul-Sehy ‏‪@AverageJoeMoney: Best advice = tax triangle. Save money pretax (401k), some tax free (Roth), some flexible (brokerage/real estate).
  • LaTisha Styles ‏‪@YoungFinances: Ignoring the 'free money' from an employer 401k. It's an immediate return! ‪#nobrainer.
When asked how to save for retirement without drastically changing your lifestyle, the panel weighed in with actionable tips: We wrapped up the panel by asking for key nuggets of investment advice for millennials.

 

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Dunkin' Croissant Donuts Selling Like Hot Cakes

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Don't Call Dunkin' Donuts' Croissant Donut a Cronut

By Karma Allen | @iam_karma

Dunkin' Donuts said it sold 4.6 million Croissant Donuts since the bakery chain first introduced its version of the croissant-doughnut last month. The company called it one of the most popular limited-time items in its recent history.

Dunkin' (DNKN) said it will extend the Croissant Donut promotion into 2015 at participating locations throughout the country "based on popular demand."

"The positive customer response to our Croissant Donut reflects the success of our strategies focused on providing guests a menu that offers a combination of old favorites like our Original Blend Coffee and innovative and fun new products like the Croissant Donut," the company said in a statement.

Dominique Ansel Bakery in New York first introduced its now-trademarked Cronut over a year ago. National chains, including Dunkin' and Jack in the Box, followed suit with similar products with different names.

Dunkin's version of the croissant-doughnut hybrid is priced at $2.49, more than twice the price of its regular doughnuts, but half the price of Dominique Ansel's Cronut.

 

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Ford Adds 447,000 Cars Nationwide to Air Bag Recall

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EARNS FORD
Ric Francis/AP
By TOM KRISHER

DETROIT -- Ford Motor Co. (F) has agreed to government demands to expand a driver's side air bag inflator recall to the entire U.S.

The move announced Thursday adds 447,000 Ford vehicles to the list of those recalled due to driver's inflators made by Japan's Takata Corp. The inflators can explode with too much force, spewing shrapnel into drivers and passengers.

Ford's action puts pressure on BMW and Chrysler, the only two automakers that haven't agreed to national recalls. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration made the demand of five automakers, saying the inflators are dangerous. Honda and Mazda already took their recalls national.

Previously the recalls were limited to high-humidity states mainly along the Gulf Coast.

The Ford national recall covers certain 2005 to 2008 Mustangs and 2005 and 2006 GT sports cars. The company also announced it would recall the same cars in Canada, Mexico and a few other countries. Thursday's announcement brings to just over 502,000 the number of Ford vehicles under recall for Takata driver's side air bags.

The company said in a statement that it's aware of one accident with an injury that could be linked to the air bags. Dealers will replace the inflators at no cost to customers.

Last month, NHTSA demanded that Takata and the five automakers recall driver's inflators across the nation. Takata and Chrysler have refused and could face legal action. BMW says it's still evaluating the demand.

Expanded Recall

Takata took out full-page advertisements in several newspapers including the Detroit Free Press on Thursday saying that it will work with NHTSA and automakers to expand the recalls by increasing production capacity for replacement air bags. The company said it's exploring whether other companies' air bags can be used in replacement kits.

But in documents filed with NHTSA, Takata refused to do a national recall, saying it's not supported by testing data. The company also said NHTSA didn't have the authority to order a parts supplier to do a recall. The safety agency has threatened legal action if Takata and the remaining automakers don't comply with its demand.

NHTSA has said the inflator propellant, ammonium nitrate, can burn faster than designed if exposed to prolonged airborne moisture. That can cause it to blow apart a metal canister meant to contain the explosion.

The safety agency says there's no data to support a nationwide passenger air bag recall, which so far has been held to the high-humidity states. In total, 10 automakers have models with Takata air bags, which have been blamed for at least five deaths and multiple injuries worldwide. So far, automakers have recalled about 12 million vehicles in the U.S. and about 19 million globally for similar problems.

U.S. recalls previously had been limited to Florida, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. But recently, under pressure from NHTSA, automakers have expanded them to include Saipan, Guam, American Samoa as well as Alabama, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas -- all areas with average annual dew points of 60 degrees or higher. The dew point is the temperature at which moisture condenses out of the air.

 

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