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Are You Ready to Buy a Hydrogen Car?

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Honda's FCEV Concept is an electric car powered by a hydrogen fuel cell. The futuristic looks are probably just for show, but Honda says its fuel-cell powertrain will come to market in a couple of years. Photo credit: Honda.

Fuel-cell vehicles are suddenly getting a lot of attention. This past week, Toyota , Honda , and Hyundai  all presented show vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cells -- and all three said that similar models will soon go into production.


Those three are just the bow wave of a slew of new hydrogen cars that are expected to hit the U.S. market in the coming years. In this video, Fool contributor John Rosevear explains why fuel-cell cars are suddenly in the limelight -- and when you'll start seeing them on American roads.

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The article Are You Ready to Buy a Hydrogen Car? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor John Rosevear owns shares of General Motors. You can connect with him on Twitter: at @jrosevear. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors and Tesla Motors and owns shares of Tesla Motors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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A Promising Sign for U.S. LNG Exports

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Just last week, the U.S. Department of Energy authorized the Freeport LNG project to export more LNG from its facility in Quintana Island, Texas, signaling further government support for LNG exports. Let's take a closer look at Freeport and other projects that have received DOE approval and what their cumulative impact might be on domestic natural gas prices.

Freeport authorized to export more gas
The Freeport LNG project, whose general partner, Freeport LNG-GP, is 50% owned by ConocoPhillips , can now export as much as 1.8 billion cubic feet of gas per day over a period of 20 years, subject to final regulatory approval. The DOE had previously authorized the project to export 1.4 billion cubic feet per day back in May.

Freeport expects its LNG export facility, which consists of three LNG trains, to go online by next year. Last year, the company secured liquefaction tolling agreements with Osaka Gas and Chubu Electric Power to liquefy roughly 4.4 million metric tons of natural gas in 2017 from the project's first train. And this year, it inked similar 20-year agreements with Toshiba and SK E&S LNG for up to 2.2 million tons of LNG per year each, and with BP for 4.4 million tons per year.


Other approved LNG projects
Freeport LNG is one of four projects that have so far received DOE approval to export gas to countries that do not have a free-trade agreement with the U.S. The others include Cheniere Energy's (NYSE: LNG) Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana, which was the first to receive approval back in 2011; the Lake Charles LNG export project in Louisiana, a venture operated by BG Group and Energy Transfer Equity that plans to transport up to 2 billion cubic feet of gas; and Dominion's Cove Point LNG terminal in Maryland, which was conditionally approved to export up to 770 million cubic feet of gas per day in September.

Combined, these projects represent roughly 6.8 billion cubic feet of U.S. natural gas exports to non-free-trade nations.

To export or not to export
These approvals have sparked a contentious debate about the economic benefits of U.S. LNG exports. Some groups argue that the cumulative impact of these and additional exports will be a sharp increase in the price of domestic natural gas, which would hurt both consumers and energy-intensive businesses. Others contend that exports will have a negligible impact on domestic gas prices, while improving the U.S. trade deficit and adding thousands of jobs.

While both sides put forth good arguments, I tend to agree with the latter group -- a reasonable policy of LNG exports would probably have only a minimal impact on domestic gas prices, while providing a welcome boost to economic growth. The main reason I side with this camp is the massive supply of natural gas the U.S. possesses.

According to Energy Information Administration data, the U.S. possessed an estimated 348.8 trillion cubic feet of proved reserves of wet natural gas, which includes both natural gas and natural gas plant liquids, as of 2011, an increase of 31.2 trillion cubic feet from the agency's previous estimate. Furthermore, despite currently depressed gas prices and infrastructure constraints inhibiting production growth, U.S. gas output continues to surge, led primarily by Pennsylvania's Marcellus shale and Ohio's Utica shale.

The bottom line
Though several groups continue to campaign against additional LNG export projects, I believe that the sheer quantity of the U.S. natural gas supply should significantly limit upward pressure on prices from additional LNG exports up to a certain point. At the same time, more LNG export approvals should support thousands of jobs across the country and could add tens of billions of dollars in revenue for gas-producing states such as Texas and Pennsylvania within two decades.

Cash in on the energy bonanza
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The article A Promising Sign for U.S. LNG Exports originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Arjun Sreekumar has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Dominion Resources. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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3 Retailers for a Long-Term Portfolio

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Companies that focus on delivering great value to consumers will always win in the long run. It is true in any industry, but is especially true in the retail business. These companies can make great products for consumers with a good price, and/or have great customer service (including a good return policy). In this article I will discuss three retail businesses that always put their consumers' satisfaction first: Nordstrom , Costco , and Amazon.com .

Nordstrom's great return policy
Nordstrom is a fashion specialty retailer, selling apparel and shoes at good prices. The two biggest revenue contributors for Nordstrom are women's apparel (31% of the total sales) and shoes (23% of the total sales).  Nordstrom offers consumers peace of mind when shopping at its stores because of its return policy. Colin Johnson, the company's spokesman, said "The return policy is that there is no return policy." The company is committed to standing behind its merchandise and working with customers. There is no time limit or receipt required to return merchandise. If Nordstrom products were bought online and returned, the store takes care of the shipping costs as well. There was also a story about a man who came into a  Nordstrom store to return two snow tires. The man was able to get the money back, but the catch here was that Nordstrom did not sell tires. 

I don't think Nordstrom is expensively valued, at only 8 times its EV/EBITDA (enterprise value/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization). Moreover, investors could get a decent 1.90% dividend yield at its current trading price.


Costco's low cost and sticky business model
Costco has been extremely successful with its low-cost business model. It has built a very loyal customer base by offering quality merchandise at prices close to cost. Like Nordstrom, Costco also has a great return policy, accepting returns for most purchases (except electronic items). Regarding consumer electronics, shoppers can return the product within 90 days. Moreover, it also gives consumers full refunds on its membership fee. If consumers shop at Costco online, the company also pays for shipping costs or the products can be returned to one of its locations.

Charlie Munger, one of the best investors in the world, considered Costco "one of the most admirable capitalistic institutions in the world." He also praised the fact that Costco has quite a loyal shopper base. "If you get hooked on going Costco with your family, you'll go for the rest of your life." Costco deserves a higher valuation than Nordstrom, being valued at 13.35 times its EV/EBITDA. At the current trading price, Costco offers investors 1% dividend yield.

A game changer for retail industry
According to a National Retail Federation/American Express survey in the beginning of 2012, Amazon ranked number one in customer service. Its founder, chairman, and CEO Jeff Bezos keeps thinking about ways to deliver more value to the company's consumers. Consumers, not profits, are his first priority. This is why Amazon sells its Kindle Fire tablet at close to cost. It does not want to make money on selling tablets, but instead on selling books via its Kindle devices.

Because Jeff Bezos cares about consumers, Amazon has kept reinvesting in new technology and distribution channels to bring better products and services to consumers. Its earnings have not been matched with its stock price, pushing the valuation ratio extremely high. In the past twelve months, it earned only $132 million, while its total market cap reached nearly $169.50 billion. Meanwhile, its trailing EV/EBITDA is as high as 51.8. Despite the extremely high valuation, though, Amazon could be a good long-term holding for investors because it has been and will continue to be a game changer for the global retail landscape.

My Foolish take
Investors should go where consumers feel happiest. Thus, all three of these retail businesses could fit well in investors' long-term portfolios. In the short run, their stock prices could experience a temporary downturn. In the long run, though, if consumers feel happy then their business fundamentals will keep improving and their share prices will keep rising.

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The article 3 Retailers for a Long-Term Portfolio originally appeared on Fool.com.

Anh HOANG has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Amazon.com and Costco Wholesale. The Motley Fool owns shares of Amazon.com and Costco Wholesale. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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5 Stocks With Triple-Digit P/Es That This Value Investor Would Consider Buying

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Call me old-fashioned or risk-averse if you like, but when push comes to shove, I'm a tried and true value investor.

When looking for my next purchase, there's nothing I love more than finding an unloved, underappreciated, and undervalued company that's been cast aside and that most Wall Street analysts would classify as a contrarian investment. In other words, I like to do things the hard way -- what can I say?

This means when I'm scouting for my next stock, I'll occasionally see a price-to-earnings ratio north of 50 and immediately click the back button, scared to see what might be behind that lofty valuation. Sometimes, though, this isn't the smartest thing to do. As Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner has mentioned previously, "overvalued" can be a shell term. Stocks are often priced aggressively because they hold a market edge over their peers, or they could be the first of their kind when it comes to innovation within a particular sector, meaning that valuation is well deserved. You can find a full list of David's research criteria here.


So today, I'm got to step out of my comfort zone and share with you five stocks that would be "overvalued" by common fundamental considerations but that I would consider buying right now.

For my consideration, I ran a screen using research tool Finviz of companies with a market cap of larger than $300 million and P/E ratios in excess of 100. Out of the 147 companies that met my criteria, here are the five I would consider buying.

Amazon.com -- current P/E: 1,349
No company has made a habit of stumping value investors for a longer period of time than e-tailer Amazon.com. If there's anything I've learned over the years, it's that it's never a great idea to bet against Amazon.com, because it's a leader in its field when it comes to convenience. Amazon is able to grab potential showroom customers from bricks-and-mortar retailers and offer them at-home delivery with a price that often undercuts B&M stores.

In addition to its enormous marketplace platform, it also is a cloud-computing juggernaut, with its EC2 virtual data center and S3 storage farm being the models by which other companies base their cloud platform.

Finally, Amazon is spreading its wings in the content arena by attempting to rival Netflix with its own streaming library of movies. With its large following of established and loyal customers, as well as trailing 12-month operating cash flow of $4.98 billion which is up 48% over the previous year, I can easily overlook its astronomical P/E and see plenty of ongoing growth potential.

Orange -- current P/E: 174
Yeah, go ahead and ring the bias alert bell, because I already own shares of overseas telecommunications service provider Orange in my portfolio, and I'm seriously thinking about buying more.

Orange has struggled under the weight of European austerity measures, which have hurt its ability to grow in Western Europe, its largest market, while it's also contended with the emergence of low-cost wireless carrier Free Mobile in France.

What's attracted me to Orange is its push into emerging markets such as sub-Saharan Africa, where its growth rate has consistently remained in the double digits, and whose market penetration is still microscopic, all things considered. Another case in point: Many of Orange's products are inelastic in nature, meaning you may see a few cancellations because of an economic downturn, but few people are willing to go without their phone, leaving Orange little need to match discounts with its peers.

Orange is also a cash-flow king that pays a premium dividend to boot. Over the trailing 12-month period, Orange has generated almost $4.1 billion in free cash flow, which helps it expand its infrastructure without dipping deeper into debt. It also allows for a dividend, which should equate to nearly 8%, or more, by the time the year is up!

eHealth -- current P/E: 154
When do Obamacare's woes spell big profits? When you're the premier and most visible private individual and small-business insurance platform around!

The allure of eHealth is that the ongoing problems with federally run Obamacare website Healthcare.gov aren't going to be fixed anytime soon, leaving consumers with the only logical option of going to a private platform like eHealth to do their comparative insurance shopping. eHealth has been operating its private platform for years, so consumers don't have to worry about whether it'll work, and eHealth could even offer a direct-to-insurer pathway should Healthcare.gov eventually be bypassed by consumers altogether.

eHealth's current P/E of 154 also becomes a bit more manageable when you realize that it's projected to grow by 18% annually over the next five years. It appears overvalued on the surface, but it's sitting in the health insurance sweet spot now more than ever!

Sohu.com -- current P/E: 987
I'll admit that this nearly four-digit P/E comes with a bit of an asterisk, as China-based Sohu.com was forced to take a number of one-time charges in its third-quarter report related to Tencent's investment in search engine Sogou.com, but that doesn't change the fact that Sohu is one of the few Chinese investments I'd suggest digger deeper into at the moment.

The most intriguing growth aspect here is Sogou, China's third-largest search engine, which currently controls 5.5% of the market share. Even with such a small market share, there's incredible potential in China's search market, such that Sohu recorded a 53% increase in year-over-year revenue from its search engine in its most recent quarter.

Gaming is another big growth driver in China, with gaming revenue up 7% in its latest quarter. Obviously, gaming revenue can ebb-and-flow a bit as we've seen with all China-based online gaming companies, but the general trend as the middle class in China grows is that more and more young adults will pay for what's relatively cheap entertainment in the form of online gaming.

With its monstrous pile of cash on hand ($1 billion net, which comprises about 40% of its current market value), I think there's more than meets the fundamental eye when it comes to Sohu!

Qiagen -- current P/E: 118
Last, but certainly not least, is sample and assay technologies provider Qiagen. It's not hard to understand why Qiagen's bottom line has been under pressure, as austerity measures in Europe and tighter government spending in the U.S. have crunched university and corporate budgets that help pay for Qiagen's diagnostic tests.

However, Qiagen also could be at the leading edge of what I suspect is a revolutionary new approach to cancer treatment -- namely, diagnostic personalization. Although a cancer cure may be nowhere in sight as of yet, cancer-based diagnostic tests offer the potential to narrow treatment options to a best-case scenario rather than leaving doctors to guess what treatment method might be best. In other words, I believe we're on the cusp of a diagnostics boom like we've never seen before.

I would suggest ignoring this inflated P/E and focus on the long term, which looks bright for Qiagen.

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The article 5 Stocks With Triple-Digit P/Es That This Value Investor Would Consider Buying originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor  Sean Williams owns shares of Orange and manages an account that owns shares of Sohu.com, but he has no material interest in any other companies mentioned in this article. You can follow him on CAPS under the screen name TMFUltraLong, track every pick he makes under the screen name TrackUltraLong, and check him out on Twitter, where he goes by the handle  @TMFUltraLong . The Motley Fool recommends Amazon.com, Apple, Facebook, Google, Orange, Qiagen, and Sohu.com and owns shares of Amazon.com, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Orange. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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A Badly Needed Win for Tesla Motors

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Fires notwithstanding, it's clear that customers really love the Tesla Model S. Photo credit: Tesla Motors.

It has been a tough few weeks for Tesla Motors . The stock has taken a big hit after concerns about fires in Tesla's Model S sedan led federal officials to open an investigation of its safety,


But Tesla got some good news this past week, when Consumer Reports said the Model S sedan had topped its customer satisfaction rankings, beating out General Motors'  Chevy Volt, last year's winner. In this video, Fool contributor John Rosevear takes a closer look at Tesla's win, and at why the Model S has such a huge advantage in buyer satisfaction.

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The article A Badly Needed Win for Tesla Motors originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor John Rosevear owns shares of General Motors. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors and Tesla Motors and owns shares of Tesla Motors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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College Degrees May Be Spurring an Epidemic of Underemployment

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There is plenty of statistical evidence that a four-year college degree increases one's earning potential over a lifetime, and brightens job prospects by leaps and bounds over those seeking employment armed with only a high school diploma. Translating that information into the workaday world, however, paints a much different picture.

Unfortunately, the unemployment rate for young workers is shockingly high, nearly 13% for those aged 20-24. Worse yet is the rate of underemployment -- such as working in a job that doesn't require a college degree -- estimates for which range from 41%-46% for those with a bachelor's degree.

Underemployment is becoming more widespread
Underemployment among young workers has been around for a while, but it appears to be worsening, even as the general employment climate picks up. In April 2012, Gallup noted that 32% of workers aged 18-29 reported being underemployed, compared to workers aged 30 and older, whose rate of underemployment was 14% or less.


A year later, an Accenture College Graduate Employment Survey showed that 41% of college graduates polled said they were underemployed -- and, of those who were not yet working, 63% thought they would need more training to attain the type of position they wanted.

This past June, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that 46%of recent college graduates were underemployed. Though a bank presentation noted that higher rates of underemployment are not uncommon in the first few years of a graduate's working life, it also observed that the problem has been getting notably worse over the past few years.

College doesn't seem to prepare students for real work
Why is underemployment among the young surging? One problem seems to be that college coursework simply isn't adequately preparing students for their chosen careers. Both employers and underemployed workers seem to agree this is an issue.

For example, a survey of more than 1,600 working adults administered last spring for the University of Phoenix reported that nearly two-thirds of working persons with at least a bachelor's degree felt ill-prepared for their present jobs, with only 35% feeling that they were using "all or most" of what they learned in college in their position.

As for employers, a Chegg survey noted that most employers find newly graduated recruits short on many desirable features, with only 39% saying they saw recent applicants "completely or very prepared" for the job. Interestingly, only 50% of college students considered themselves to have attained that level of readiness, as well.

A multifaceted problem
Unless changes are made, the underemployment epidemic will very likely continue to worsen. Reversing the direction of this distressing employment trend will require all involved to make changes.

Employers should acknowledge the need for on-the-job training, something they've been loath to do since the recession. The Accenture study clearly showsthat what college students expect for this type of training and what employers are willing to supply are quite far apart: 77% percent of students expected training, while only 48% actually received any. Without employers training first-time employees, this problem will persist.

College students can help by familiarizing themselves with what employers expect of them. For example, while many students work at jobs unrelated to their major, employers want job applicants with either internships or relevant activities on their resumes that show they have at least some experience. Leadership characteristics are very important, as well -- 93% of hiring managers say so -- and students should use their college years to foster these qualities through involvement in campus activities.

Lastly, colleges need to reflect more of the workaday world and tweak their curricula to help students segue more effectively from college life to working life. This will be a sea change for many institutions, and maybe ranking colleges by the employability of their graduates would help. After all, getting a good job is what attending college is ultimately all about.

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The article College Degrees May Be Spurring an Epidemic of Underemployment originally appeared on Fool.com.

Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Microsoft Wasn't Ready for the Xbox One Disaster

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Sony had just a seven-day head start on Microsoft in this month's video-game war, but it might have a bigger lead than that in the battle of consumer perception.

Microsoft may seem to be downplaying the magnitude of the defective Xbox One consoles that hit the market this weekend, but it's clearly bigger than the software giant is letting on. I should know. I was one of the unfortunate early adopters burned by a buggy console that would spit out discs like a baby refusing to eat a jar of creamed peas. Every game or optical disc that I would try to insert would grind, crank, and stall. A quick online search let me know that I wasn't alone in having paid $500 for a console that can't read discs. 

Things only got worse when I tried to get the matter resolved. 


"The issue is affecting a very small number of Xbox One customers," Microsoft explained in a statement to GameSpot. "We're working directly with those affected to get a replacement console to them as soon as possible through our advance exchange program."

The program is fair. Microsoft sends out a replacement system first. The owner of the defective Xbox One then has two weeks to return the original system. That's the right thing to do, even if it means that Microsoft requires a credit card authorization of $500 to set the process in motion. However, if this problem was so limited, why was customer service so hard to get yesterday? Microsoft offers several options, but it turns out that the only way to execute this exchange is by phone, since Xbox "ambassadors" and the support staff manning LivePerson's online chat interface can't accept sensitive credit card information online. You need to speak to an actual rep, and here's where Microsoft dropped the ball. 

I was shocked to see that the wait time would be "less than 512 minutes" yesterday afternoon. Microsoft calls you back, but it's still an insane amount of time to be left waiting for a resolution. 

The LivePerson chat session I opened up had an 81-minute wait, but the necessary phone support was more than eight hours for the callback. It wound up being closer to six hours, but even after getting called back I was on hold for another 40 minutes before just hanging up. Thankfully I was bailed out by a LivePerson rep who was thoughtful enough to call me to complete the service authorization by phone. 

There's no way Microsoft looks good when you're telling people that customer support is backed up by nearly nine hours. If the problems are within the expected range, then it planned poorly in staffing support so thoughtlessly. It's almost better to admit that there's a larger number of defective Xbox One consoles out there than the mere thousands being suggested. At least that way it doesn't look like Microsoft didn't care in putting up bare-boned support during its launch weekend. 

The problem only gets worse from here. If you were a parent stashing away an Xbox One until Christmas, are you going to risk gifting what could start as a $500 paperweight if it, too, has the broken drive? If you didn't get your hands on an Xbox One on Friday, how hesitant do you now have to be to overpay for one on eBay or Craigslist? Microsoft burned a lot of its most devout fans this weekend with the defective consoles and its slow response, but the real damage here is that Sony just became that much more viable as the console to beat this holiday shopping season. 

A popular name in video gaming is one of the six stocks in this free report
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The article Microsoft Wasn't Ready for the Xbox One Disaster originally appeared on Fool.com.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends LivePerson and owns shares of Microsoft. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Geekstock: The Sad State of "Star Wars" Games

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A broad deal between Walt Disney and Electronic Arts will last 10 years with design and development tapping into the entirety of the Star Wars franchise rather than just the mythology revealed in the films. Is that good news for fans and investors?

Fool analysts Tim Beyers and Nathan Alderman say investors have more to cheer than fans do in the latest episode of Geekstock, The Motley Fool's new web show, in which Tim, Nathan, and host Alison Southwick introduce you to the big-money names behind your favorite movies, toys, video games, comics, and more.

Nathan says not to expect much since there's risk in ranging too far beyond what hard core Star Wars fans know and love, which, in turn, puts a lid on how creative EA gets to be with its license. Tim agrees, noting that even incremental efforts to expand franchises can run into glitches. Time Warner is suffering just that sort of problem now with Batman: Arkham Origins, which has endured enough problems to force WB Games to issue a formal apology. EA naturally wants to avoid the same fate, Tim says.


Now it's your turn to weigh in. What do you expect to see from the next round of Star Wars games? Please leave a comment to let us know what you think and be sure to check back here often for more Geekstock segments.

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The article Geekstock: The Sad State of "Star Wars" Games originally appeared on Fool.com.

Neither Alison Southwick nor Nathan Alderman owned shares in any of the companies mentioned at the time of publication. Tim Beyers owned shares of Walt Disney and Time Warner. The Motley Fool recommends Walt Disney. The Motley Fool owns shares of Walt Disney. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Will Online Deals Doom Black Friday?

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Drive by any shopping center early on the day after Thanksgiving, and you'll see crowds of eager shoppers ready to pounce on the hottest gifts. However, with online deals catching on like wildfire, are the days of waiting in the freezing cold and trampling fellow shoppers nearing an end?

As it's done with nearly everything else in society, the Internet has revolutionized the shopping experience. As such, online deals pose a growing threat to the traditional scramble of frenzied shoppers who'd sacrifice hours and days to get the latest gadgets at cheap prices.

Will online deals doom Black Friday? Let's look at four reasons this could be the case and one way Black Friday may never quite become a dinosaur.


Longer sales
Black Friday, by definition, lasts 24 hours. However, online sales on and around this holiday last much longer. Retailers increasingly offer online deals on Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday. Many offer deals over the weekend as well.

According to comScore, Americans spent $4.3 billion online from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday in 2012, with double-digit increases on every day compared with 2011. On Black Friday itself, online sales rose 28% while in-store sales dropped 1.8%. Clearly, consumers increasingly favor online deals over those in stores, especially since they can find the former over a five-day period.

Convenience
Simply put, it's a lot easier to find the best deals by browsing the Web than to sift through newspaper ads and drive from store to store. The explosion of mobile devices has made it even more convenient to shop online, as shoppers can order their gifts from just about anywhere. Many online retailers witnessed double-digit growth in mobile traffic, and one site, PriceGrabber, saw an increase of more than 3,200% in smartphone traffic in 2012.

Safety
Without fail, shoppers have been seriously injured or even killed in the Black Friday melee. A few samples from recent years:

  • A Virginia Wal-Mart manager was hospitalized after being trampled.
  • At least five people were hospitalized after being trampled in a Long Island Wal-Mart, including a worker who died, after thousands broke into the store.
  • Two men shot each other to death in a California Toys "R" Us after the women with them got in a fight.
  • An Ohio woman jumped onto a man's back to get "her" TV, assaulted him, and shouted taunts as police and security intervened.

Incidents like these occur every year, so much so that retailers have been reminded of crowd management safety facts, or even rules in certain regions. Meanwhile, the risk of being attacked or trampled by other shoppers drops to zero when shopping online.

Better deals
Cyber Monday and other online deals are typically comparable to those found in stores on Black Friday. Thus, on the surface, the choice appears to be a wash.

However, online shopping has two distinct advantages in this realm. One is free shipping, as many online retailers offer this perk on Cyber Monday. Some even do so with no minimum purchase requirement. As such, there's often no reason to head out in the cold and wait in line.

Second, it's a lot easier to comparison-shop online than in stores. With sites such as Amazon.com and eBay, shoppers can instantly compare prices and other features and select the best value. Of course, they can also compare by simply pulling up a few sites and punching the same item in for the best price.

There is one caveat
Some shoppers see Black Friday as more than just a day to get steep discounts. They actually enjoy the mad rush.

A 2012 survey by Qualtrics found that half get "excited" by the Black Friday shopping experience. This could be because some enjoy competitive shopping. Others probably enjoy the loud jingles, gaudy decorations, and overall holiday atmosphere.

Conclusion
Online shopping may be eroding Black Friday's appeal, but the classic shopping holiday should survive for a while. Logically speaking, longer sales, convenience, safety, and better deals make online shopping a superior option. However, logic doesn't always apply during the holiday shopping frenzy, and there will always be those who endure the blistering cold and mad dash to the video game aisle in Target for the simple thrill of it.

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The article Will Online Deals Doom Black Friday? originally appeared on Fool.com.

The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Amazon.com and eBay. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Is Abercrombie & Fitch Now a Value Play?

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Last week, third-quarter 13F filings from the worlds hedge funds and asset management companies were filed and published by the SEC. These reports are always interesting, as it's nice to know what the so-called professional investors of this world are buying.

One thing that stood out within Soros Fund Management's 13F, run by George Soros, was a $2.6 million holding in Abercrombie & Fitch . Now, Soros is traditionally a value investor, so does this mean that after recent declines he considers Abercrombie & Fitch to be a value investment?

A bad year
Abercrombie has not had a good 2013--bad press, inventory mismanagement, and economic headwinds are all factors that have affected the company. As a result, management announced within the company's fiscal third-quarter earnings report that full-year adjusted earnings per share are expected to fall in the range of $1.40 to $1.50, significantly below the $1.95 per share analysts had expected.


Now what investors have to decide is whether or not this is a company-specific issue, or the company is being affected by factors outside of its control. Indeed, there are some factors to suggest that the company's troubles are linked to the global economy as opposed to internal mistakes.

For example, Abercrombie's target market is the younger generation where the unemployment rate is currently higher than average. In particular, the global jobless rate for young people, those aged 15 to 24 -- Abercrombie's key demographic -- has grown to 12.4% from 11.5% during 2007. What's more, in some parts of Europe, especially troubled Greece, youth unemployment levels are close to 75%. This has already lead to Abercrombie delaying its European expansion plans.

Furthermore, the unemployment rate among 16-to-19-year-olds within the United States reached 22.2% during October of this year. So, Abercrombie's key demographic has little money to spend, and what they do have to spend is not going towards expensive clothing.

Industrywide trend
It would appear that Abercrombie is not alone in reporting lower sales volumes. Peers American Eagle Outfitters and Aeropostale are also predicted to report lower sales volumes this year, as teens are no longer prepared to pay premium rates for clothing.

Having said that, American Eagle raised its third-quarter outlook at the beginning of the month on better-than-expected margins, but the company also revealed that sales continued to be "unsatisfactory."

What's more, these third-quarter figures follow a terrible second quarter, where American Eagle posted mid-to-high single-digit declines in same-store sales along with weak traffic figures. Wall Street now expects a 4% decline in sales for the fiscal year 2014.

What about Abercrombie?
So is Abercrombie a value play, as George Soros' position would suggest? Well, some numbers certainly indicate that it is. The company is currently trading at a price-to-book value of around 1.6 and based on a trailing-12-month basis, the company is trading at a P/E of 12.6. This puts the company at the lowest trailing-12 month P/E ratio in the apparel-stores sector, cheaper than both American Eagle and Aeropostale.

This indicates that perhaps Abercrombie could be a value investment, but the issue of falling sales and bad press remains.

Still, unlike some of its peers, the company remains profitable, and trading at one of the sector's lowest valuations means it could be a decent value play. Although a resurgence in youth unemployment would appear to be far off, if the company can survive until then it should be able to ride the economic recovery.

Is Abercrombie a great growth play?
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The article Is Abercrombie & Fitch Now a Value Play? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Rupert Hargreaves has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Pandora's Third-Quarter Results Make Investors Hit "Pause"

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Pandora  reported third-quarter earnings last week. After opening higher, shares closed down modestly as investors digested the results. Revenue jumped 50% to nearly $182 million, which included $144 million in advertising revenue. Of that, Pandora generated more than $100 million in mobile advertising revenue, a new milestone for the music streamer. That all translated into a net loss of $1.7 million, or $0.01 per share. Pandora also grew its domestic market share, and grabbed 8% of the market in October.

The company is now demonstrating that it has the potential to scale its business. Ad revenue growth outpaced content acquisition costs by a small margin, and subscription revenue nearly tripled. That will help Pandora diversify aware from a purely ad-supported model. Going forward, one of Pandora's greatest opportunities will be to continue focusing on the local ad market, which is its fastest growing segment. Additionally, local ads fetch higher prices.

In this segment of Tech Teardown, Erin Kennedy discusses Pandora's earnings report with Evan Niu, CFA, our tech and telecom bureau chief.


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The article Pandora's Third-Quarter Results Make Investors Hit "Pause" originally appeared on Fool.com.

Erin Kennedy and Evan Niu, CFA, both own shares of Apple. The Motley Fool recommends Apple, Google, and Pandora Media and owns shares of Apple and Google. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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3 Must-Learn Lessons From Bitcoin's Surge

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Bitcoin has become a global financial phenomenon, soaring from under $1 less than three years ago to nearly $850 recently. But even if you've missed out on the Bitcoin craze, it's not too late to get valuable insight about the digital currency.

In the following video, Dan Caplinger, The Motley Fool's director of investment planning, talks about three lessons everyone needs to take from Bitcoin. First, Dan notes that prices of any investment can climb much further than you'd think possible, especially when demand becomes extremely high. Next, Dan points out that investments that rise in value almost always include big declines along the way. Just as Bitcoin has suffered many plunges of 50% or more in its short history, so too have stocks like Netflix and Chipotle Mexican Grill  experienced substantial declines that interrupted their long upward moves. Even the Dow Jones Industrials have suffered through major bear markets in their inexorable rise over the decades.

Dan concludes by noting that any successful investment inevitably gets Wall Street interested, with a Bitcoin ETF in the works. In the end, Dan advises that investors be careful about Bitcoin and its prospects, but to learn the lessons it has to teach you about investing more generally.


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The article 3 Must-Learn Lessons From Bitcoin's Surge originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Dan Caplinger has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill and Netflix. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Here's the Next Revolution for the Train Industry

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Natural gas as a transportation fuel is a hard sell to the general population. However, fleet vehicles have been happily making the switch. Staring next year, railroad CSX will be testing out new gear from General Electric that will allow trains to run on either natural gas or diesel—big news for an industry that last made a fuel switch over 50 years ago.

Cars and trucks
Clean Energy's focus is to get natural gas deeper into the transportation industry. It's concentrated on fleet vehicles since the gasoline infrastructure is too deeply ingrained in the individual market. Although it's been slow going at times, this effort is starting to gain traction.

For example, the company estimates that 60% of all new garbage trucks sold this year will be powered by natural gas. That's up from less than 10% just five years ago. And the company has partnered with big industry players like Waste Management along the way. That trash hauler estimates that each natural gas powered truck reduces diesel use by 8,000 gallons a year, cutting both fuel and maintenance costs, and reducing emissions.


That's why both are happily pushing forward with natural gas—Waste Management, for example, has the largest gas powered fleet in the trash industry. And Clean Energy is working on a similar fuel switch in the long-haul truck space, which it believes is a $25 billion market opportunity. It's working with GE on that, recently inking a deal with the conglomerate's finance arm to provide loans for natural gas truck purchases.

More than trucks...
General Electric, however, has its sights on more than just the nation's highways. It has been building fueling solutions that could be installed at individuals' homes -- a long-shot idea -- and on shifting trains to natural gas. The latter is an idea that is ready to roll in a big way.

GE is partnering with CSX to test equipment that will allow a train to run on either diesel or natural gas as early as next year. Offering both fuels is a huge benefit for the train companies because it provides them with the ability to use the cheapest fuel now and in the future should natural gas prices rise. In fact "LNG technology has the potential to offer one of the most significant developments in railroading since the transition from steam to diesel in the 1950s," according to CSX.

Natural gas' low price has driven increased demand from various industries. Being at the forefront of the adoption of natural gas technology in so many different ways is a huge benefit for GE, which also provides products and services in the drilling space. Although the industrial giant is much larger than this one niche, look for natural gas to play an increasingly important role at the company.

For CSX and the other train companies, meanwhile, you could soon start to see discussions of fleet conversions and cost savings—just like what's taking place in the trash space with companies like Waste Management. And it's a good bet that Clean Energy won't be far behind in trying to provide services to CSX and its peers.

For example, Clean Energy supplies natural gas to some 400 fueling stations but it doesn't own all of them. Since neither GE nor CSX is likely to turn into a natural gas company, Clean Energy could easily enter the picture to supply the natural gas to power CSX's trains. That's even more likely since the GE/CSX test involves liquified natural gas, or LNG. LNG requires a process to create and Clean Energy has quickly become an expert at doing it.

The future is now
Natural gas is quickly gaining traction in the transportation industry. If the GE/CSX text works out, look for railroads to begin a multi-year switch to the fuel like what's transpiring now at companies like Waste Management. That will be a boon for General Electric and likely Clean Energy, too.  

The energy boom didn't create itself. These 3 companies played a big role

Record oil and natural gas production is revolutionizing the United States' energy position. Finding the right plays while historic amounts of capital expenditures are flooding the industry will pad your investment nest egg. For this reason, the Motley Fool is offering a comprehensive look at three energy companies set to soar during this transformation in the energy industry. To find out which three companies are spreading their wings, check out the special free report, "3 Stocks for the American Energy Bonanza." Don't miss out on this timely opportunity; click here to access your report -- it's absolutely free. 

The article Here's the Next Revolution for the Train Industry originally appeared on Fool.com.

Reuben Brewer has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Clean Energy Fuels and Waste Management. The Motley Fool owns shares of CSX, General Electric Company, and Waste Management. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Steel Is Cooked If This Auto Trend Catches Fire

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BMW's new i3 all-electric vehicle has taken a detour from usual car-building techniques, integrating advanced materials to reduce weight. That's helped the company increase the vehicle's range, reduce recharge times, and is a warning shot across the bow of steel companies like AK Steel and Nucor .

A weighty issue
One of the biggest factors in how far an automobile can travel for a given amount of energy boils down to physics. Heavier objects are harder to move—lighten the object and it moves more easily. That's why car companies have been looking to integrate lighter metals into their cars. AK Steel and Nucor are both working to create lighter, yet still strong metals to meet that need.

And the resurgence of the U.S. auto industry has been a boon to results in an industry that has been struggling. To give some perspective on that, AK Steel generates about half of its revenues from auto customers. And Nucor considers the car market key to its growth, noting that automotive is one "of the strong markets out there today" in its third quarter conference call.


Fiber is good for you
BMW's new i3 should be a big concern to this steel duo. The automaker has chosen to shift from steel to carbon fiber, trumpeting the use of "extremely strong, yet lightweight Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastic" in advertising. That's the type of high-tech product made by companies like Hexcel and Cytec Industries .

Although the technology is used in many fields, the most public shift has been in aviation. For example, by using light weight but strong carbon fiber technology, Boeing's  787 uses 20% less fuel than similarly sized aircraft. That's just the tip of the iceberg, though, because Hexcel brags that its materials are used "on virtually every commercial and military aircraft produced in the western world."

Cytec, which focuses on creating value-added products, counts aerospace, structural adhesives, automotive and industrial coatings, electronics, inks, mining, and plastics as key markets. Although you can find the company's materials in golf clubs, the real growth area is in gaining market share in automobiles and aviation. While BMW's i3 is at the leading edge in the auto arena, the technology is already proving itself at Boeing.

Big trouble in big steel?
That's why you need to watch BMW's i3. For example, one of the reasons why AK Steel and Nucor have experienced such success in the auto space is safety. Steel has historically been the strongest, and thus safest, material to use. If the i3 flounders because customers aren't comfortable with the carbon fiber shift, steel companies will have more time to adjust. If customers don't mind carbon or, worse, if it turns into a selling point, other automakers will jump on the carbon bandwagon.

The next issue to watch will be safety. If BMW's i3 scores poorly in safety testing or if real life results prove that carbon fiber isn't as safe as steel, then there is less to worry about. If carbon holds up to steel's standards, however, AK Steel in particular could face increasing pressure on its top and bottom lines.

Price, though, is probably the biggest hurdle for the technology right now. Carbon fiber is expensive. It's one thing to put it in an airplane and another to put it into a car. BMW is a high-end car company, so it can charge a premium price and get away with it. Ford would find that tactic more difficult.

That will help protect steelmakers like Nucor and AK Steel for now. But carbon fiber prices will fall over time. If the price falls enough, the material could even invade other steel strongholds like washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners.

Keep a watchful eye
Carbon fiber isn't posing a huge threat to AK Steel or Nucor today. However, BMW's use of the material in the i3 will be an important test for you to watch. If the material proves itself, and the price comes down enough, big steel could see carbon makers like Hexcel and Cytec Industries turn into fierce competitors in more than just the auto space.

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The article Steel Is Cooked If This Auto Trend Catches Fire originally appeared on Fool.com.

Reuben Brewer has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Ford and Nucor. The Motley Fool owns shares of Ford. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Here's Why You Could Kill America's Energy Boom

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Photo credit: Royal Dutch Shell

America's energy boom has enough fuel to create more than one million new jobs by 2020. That's just part of the story here. At the same time, the industry needs to back fill thousands of jobs that will be made available by its soon to be retiring workforce.


A recent article on Rigzone pointed out four major recruiting trends that were poised to plague the oil and gas industry. Two of those top trends were the shortage of talent and the industry's aging workforce. A lack of skilled workers in the future could put an abrupt end to America's energy boom, as it could cause labor costs to spiral out of control.

The aging energy workforce
Overall, the American workforce is getting older. Over the next five to ten years, half of the current workforce is expected to retire. The energy workforce is much older due to the low oil prices in the 1980s and the subsequent decline of America's energy industry. In fact, that average age of an oil and gas worker is 50. That is putting added pressure on the industry's ability to grow now that oil and gas production is booming.

One area of particular concern is skilled tradesmen such as welders. It's a profession that's expected to grow about 15% through 2020. Overall, America will need 50,000 additional welders in the decade ahead, with the energy industry being a key source of those new jobs. However, when combined with looming retirements of many of these skilled professionals, the need is even greater.

Engaging tomorrow's workforce
The upcoming "crew change" as it's being termed has energy companies looking to partner with educational institutions in an effort to get ahead of addressing this challenge. ConocoPhillips , for example, has partnered with the National Energy Education Department Project, or NEED to provide teachers with energy curriculum and training. The purpose is to engage students in energy and science and to encourage them to consider pursuing a career in the energy industry. By engaging students early, and getting them excited about energy, ConocoPhillips can potentially reap the rewards later if these students decide to pursue a career in the energy industry.

Global oil companies like Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil are making similar commitments to education, with a focus on science. Shell has been a longtime supporter of the National Science Research Center, which is implementing comprehensive and research-based science programs. Similarly, ExxonMobil has committed to supporting the National Math and Science Initiative as well as a range of other educational programs.

By engaging students in science and technology the industry can help students to identify their passions early and pursue a career and not just a job. By turning more kids on to science, the industry will have a greater candidate pool, which could enhance its ability to provide the world with more energy.

Digging deeper
A great example of this is geologists. Each year American universities produce just 430 geologists. At the same time schools are churning out more than 43,000 lawyers. There simply will not be enough geologists to meet future demand. In fact, by 2020 America will need seven thousand more geologists than are employed today, that's faster than average jobs growth of 21%. By empowering students and engaging them to help solve tomorrow's energy issues, the industry really can make a difference in our nation's future.

Final thoughts
Right now energy production in America is booming. It has us on the cusp of energy independence. That dream, however, could slip away if there are not enough skilled workers to replace those that are retiring, let alone fill the more than one million jobs the industry is poised to create. That's why it's great to see these companies investing in students now, because even if they don't pursue a career in energy, their future will be better because of the industry's involvement. 

Invest in America's energy boom

Record oil and natural gas production is revolutionizing the United States' energy position. While the industry faces its share of hurdles, its making an incredible difference on America's energy future. The boom could impact your future as well. That's why the Motley Fool has prepared this special free report, "3 Stocks for the American Energy Bonanza." Don't miss out on this timely opportunity; click here to access your report -- it's absolutely free. 

 

The article Here's Why You Could Kill America's Energy Boom originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Matt DiLallo owns shares of ConocoPhillips. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Nissan Agrees With Tesla: Hydrogen Cars Won't Work

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Nissan's Leaf represents a big bet on battery-electric technology. But the company has also made a bet on hydrogen cars, and now its CEO is saying that he's skeptical of hydrogen's chances. Photo credit: Nissan.

Tesla Motors  CEO Elon Musk has made his feelings on hydrogen fuel-cell cars clear: He thinks the technology is a dead end. Of course, you'd expect him to say that: With Tesla, he's made a huge bet on hydrogen's biggest rival, battery-electric cars. It's only natural that he'd talk down the competition. 


But this week, Nissan  CEO Carlos Ghosn expressed his own skepticism about hydrogen-car technology -- and while Nissan has made its own big bet on battery-electric cars, it has also joined with Ford  and Daimler in a project to bring fuel-cell vehicles to market later this decade. 

What's the deal? In this video, Fool contributor John Rosevear explains where Ghosn's skepticism is coming from -- and why some of his arguments against hydrogen cars are worth considering carefully.

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The article Nissan Agrees With Tesla: Hydrogen Cars Won't Work originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor John Rosevear owns shares of Ford and General Motors. The Motley Fool recommends Ford, General Motors, and Tesla Motors and owns shares of Ford and Tesla Motors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Better Buy: Merck, Pfizer, or Johnson & Johnson?

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It doesn't get much bigger in big pharma than Merck , Pfizer or Johnson & Johnson . All three are packing pipelines to offset patent expirations. But, is one a better buy than another?

Debating earnings
One of my favorite ways to evaluate whether big companies will continue to reward investors with buybacks and dividends is to consider operating margins. The ability to translate revenue into profit is critical to long-term success. In addition to funding future dividends and buybacks, a strong operating margin provides fuel for drug research, development, acquisitions too.

Among these three, operating margins have turned up for J&J and are showing early signs of improvement at Pfizer. However, they remain depressed at Merck, which suggests sluggish net income growth. The fact that J&J's operating margin is highest positions it nicely for future growth.


MRK Operating Margin (TTM) Chart

Source: Operating Margin data by YCharts.

Of the three, net income is greatest at Pfizer, where the rate increase has accelerated this year. J&J's net income has also improved, while Merck's has been heading lower.

MRK Net Income (TTM) Chart

Source: Net income data by YCharts.

While operating margins and net income give some insight, you get a clearer picture when you consider each companies history of underpromising and overdelivering on quarterly earnings. Management teams that understand how Wall Street rewards and punishes companies know that keeping analyst expectations in check is important.  

Merck and J&J both get high marks in this regard, both outpacing analyst earnings projections in each of the past four quarters. Pfizer has also done a nice job, beating in three of the last four quarters.

EPS Surprise %

Company

  Dec. 2012   

  March 2013  

  June 2013   

  Sept. 2013   

Merck

2.50%

7.60%

1.20%

4.50%

Pfizer

6.80%

(8.90)%

1.80%

3.60%

Johnson & Johnson 

1.70%

2.90%

6.50%

3.00% 

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

But those beats aren't translating into analyst euphoria. Over the past 90 days, analysts have taken Merck's forward earnings expectation down by 5% as they model for lower Singulair sales. That drug lost patent protection last year.

Pfizer is also wrestling to offset the threat of generics. The company lost protection for its blockbuster Lipitor in November 2011, and sales of the drug were 27% lower year over year in the third quarter. Pfizer also lost protection for Viagra in Europe this past summer. That caused Viagra's third-quarter sales to slump 11% compared to last year.

Johnson & Johnson isn't immune to the patent cliff, either. The company faces patent expiration for its high-profile blockbuster Remicade as early as 2015, and generic drug maker Hospira has already won approval in Europe for its biosimilar version of the drug. However, despite that threat, analysts have bumped up their earnings outlook on sales strength of J&J's prostate cancer drug Zytiga and hopes for a successful launch of its hepatitis C drug simeprevir.

EPS Trends

 

Merck

Pfizer

Johnson & Johnson 

 

Next Year  

Next Year  

Next Year

Dec 2014

Dec 2014

Dec 2014

Current Estimate

3.49

2.29

5.85

7 Days Ago

3.49

2.29

5.84

30 Days Ago

3.56

2.31

5.83

60 Days Ago

3.68

2.3

5.82

90 Days Ago

3.68

2.3

5.82

% Change from 90 Days Ago

(5.16)%

(0.43)%

0.52%

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Debating valuation
Switching over to valuation, investors are paying more for each dollar of Pfizer and J&J sales than they have in five years. Merck's price-to-sales ratio is similarly high relative to historical levels.

MRK PS Ratio (TTM) Chart

Source: P/S data by YCharts.

Investors are paying a lot for trailing 12 month earnings per share at Merck and J&J too. If we discount the spike in Merck, we see P/E ratios for each are near five year highs. Pfizer is a different story. Investors are paying near the low end for future earnings ahead of generic threats.

Source: P/E data by YCharts.

If we compare the companies forward P/E to the five-year P/E low, Merck is more expensive than its large cap health care peers, while Pfizer and J&J are less expensive than those peers.

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

If we assume investors will pay closer to the historical norm for earnings at Merck, applying a P/E ratio target of 15.5 to forward earnings estimates gets a back-of-napkin target price of $54.10, which is 12.67% higher than its trading currently.

If we assume Pfizer will trade in the middle of its trailing and forward P/E ratio over the coming year, it appears overvalued by as much as 18%. However, if we use the five-year average P/E ratio for Pfizer, it could be 9.5% undervalued. That's a fairly wide spread and should make you cautious.

Over at Johnson & Johnson, taking the midpoint between its trailing and forward P/E gets us a potential 15% return. Of course, whenever you make such assumptions, you take a leap of faith. Any number of things can occur causing investor enthusiasm to rise or fall, and that could drastically change target P/Es. After all, past performance never guarantees future returns.

Metrics

 Merck 

Pfizer

 Johnson & Johnson 

Trailing P/E

32.26

8.84

21.03

Forward P/E

13.76

13.98

16.12

Current Share Price

$48.01

$32.01

$94.30

Forward EPS Estimate

$3.49

$2.29

$5.85

Target P/E

15.50

11.41

18.58

Target Price Forward EPS * Target P/E

$54.10

$26.13

$108.66

Potential Return

12.67%

(18.37)%

15.23%

Sources: Yahoo! Finance and author's calculations.

Foolish final thoughts
Johnson & Johnson offers peer-leading operating margins, rising net income, and the best history of beating analyst expectations. J&J is also the only one of the three where analysts are increasing, rather than decreasing, next year earnings estimates.

And, while J&J investors are paying near historical highs for sales and earnings, it may offer the biggest potential for upside based on my target P/E estimates. As a result, J&J appears to have the edge when compared to both Merck and Pfizer. But, that assumes investors remain enthusiastic about Zytiga and simeprevir, two drugs targeting very competitive markets.

A big growth stock you'll want to check out
This incredible tech stock is growing twice as fast as Google and Facebook, and more than three times as fast as Amazon.com and Apple. Watch our jaw-dropping investor alert video today to find out why The Motley Fool's chief technology officer is putting $117,238 of his own money on the table, and why he's so confident this will be a huge winner in 2013 and beyond. Just click here to watch!

The article Better Buy: Merck, Pfizer, or Johnson & Johnson? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Todd Campbell has no position in any stocks mentioned. Todd owns E.B. Capital Markets, LLC, an institutional research firm. E.B. Capital's clients may or may not own positions in the companies mentioned. Todd also owns Gundalow Advisors, LLC. Gundalow's clients do not own positions in the companies mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Johnson & Johnson. The Motley Fool owns shares of Johnson & Johnson. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Dollar Stores Are Still Popular With Middle-Class Consumers

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The financial crisis and the economy's slow-paced recovery have been a huge boost for business at dollar stores. These discount retailers' share prices have soared throughout this period, and some shareholders have benefited from increasing dividends as well. The low prices these retailers offer have attracted consumers struggling with depressed home values, a restricted credit market, and a tough job sector.

As the middle-class consumer continues to be affected by some of these issues, retailers like Dollar Tree Stores and Family Dollar Stores continue to report healthy profits.

The growth in share value for these companies has been impressive. Dollar Tree traded at slightly less than $10 per share at the start of 2008. After two stock splits in 2010 and 2012 aimed at keeping share prices low, Dollar Tree shares have risen to $59 per share and are valued at 18 times 2015 earnings.


In comparison, Family Dollar Store shares traded at around $19 per share in 2008 and currently trade at $70 per share; the stock's price-to-earnings ratio is 16 times 2015 earnings. Family Dollar's dividends have also risen steadily during this period.

Continued, albeit cautious, growth expected
Dollar Tree's latest second-quarter results for the period ended Aug. 3 showed an increase in diluted earnings per share of 9.8% to $0.56. The operating margin increased 10 basis points during the quarter to 10.9%. The company opened 81 stores during the period and expanded or relocated 32 stores. Retail sales space grew by 7% versus a year ago to 42 million square feet.

Predictions for the third quarter estimate that sales will range between $1.87 billion to $1.92 billion, assuming a single-digit increase in same-store sales. Diluted EPS is expected to be between $0.54 and $0.59 per share.

Family Dollar Stores' fourth quarter ended on Aug. 31, and the retailer delivered adjusted diluted EPS of $0.86, up 14.7%. Comparable-store sales were flat during the period. For the fiscal year, the company reported an increase of 4.4% in adjusted and diluted EPS to $3.80 and higher comparable-store sales by 3%.

The company expects growth over the near term -- 500 new stores opened in fiscal 2013 and plans are in place to open 525 stores in fiscal 2014. It has adopted a cautious stance going into the new fiscal year as it works to increase market share, improve inventory turnover, and provide greater value to its customers.

Are dollar stores a better value than Wal-Mart?
There's a sense that a part of the middle class may be trading down to dollar stores as prices for some consumable and discretionary items found in discount retailers, like Wal-Mart Stores , can seem too pricey. Kristen Bentz, executive director at private equity firm PMG Venture Group, told CNN she believes this may be the case, as middle-class consumers continue to deal with a decline in purchasing power.

Wal-Mart's latest third-quarter earnings saw consolidated net sales rise 1.6% to $114.9 billion. Total revenue reported was $115.7 billion, up 1.7% from a year ago but below the $116.8 billion Wall Street was hoping for.

Mike Duke, Wal-Mart's president and CEO, stated that while the current retail environment remains competitive, the company has aggressive plans to increase holiday sales. Economic uncertainty is a headwind for the business and Duke believes "some customers feel uncertainty about the economy, government [and] job stability."

The slow growth is expected to continue into the first month of the fourth quarter. Wal-Mart also remains committed to reducing operating expenses as a percentage of net sales by 100 basis points by fiscal year 2017.

My Foolish conclusion
As conflicting economic data continues to come out, the U.S. economy appears to be on a path moving one-step forward and two steps back. Uncertainty and weakness in the job sector should continue to negatively impact consumer spending. This can drive more consumers to shop at dollar retailers while they wait for income levels to stabilize and show signs of a stronger positive momentum going forward.

As Wal-Mart falls, who rises?
To learn about two retailers with especially good prospects, take a look at The Motley Fool's special free report: "The Death of Wal-Mart: The Real Cash Kings Changing the Face of Retail." In it, you'll see how these two cash kings are able to consistently outperform and how they're planning to ride the waves of retail's changing tide. You can access it by clicking here.

The article Dollar Stores Are Still Popular With Middle-Class Consumers originally appeared on Fool.com.

Eileen Rojas has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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3 Reasons to Sell Your Cable Stocks Today

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Last week, shares of Time Warner Cable  were up big again, after further speculation that the company could merge with Charter Communications It was just the latest catalyst to drive shares of the cable provider group, which also includes potential acquirer Comcast , higher. However, while these stocks have had a great year, it's probably in your best interest to avoid the entire group right now. 

Here are the three biggest reasons you should steer clear of cable. 

Reason 1: A false sense of security 
I rarely, if ever, feel the need to write a piece that urges people to avoid a stock or a sector. Since the information regarding the risk of any given sector is usually common knowledge, I tend to believe that the market generally operates efficiently and prices stocks with high risks accordingly. Yet there still are cases where Mr. Market gets it wrong, by not panicking enough, and that is the sum of my fears with the cable sector.


Of all the misunderstandings that investors have about this sector, perhaps the most worrisome is the idea that it is "safe." There are reasons, regarding the future of these businesses, that make this idea false, but let's start with the numbers. Most investors who view these stocks as safe view them as such because they have good dividends and seem like they'd be steady growers. 

While their dividends have been fairly stable, Comcast and Time Warner actually both have dividends under 2% -- below the average payout of all S&P 500 companies. All three of these companies are trading near 52-week highs; Time Warner and Comcast both trade around 20 times earnings; and Charter hasn't turned a profit in years. The real reason that these companies seem safe is that they're all we've ever known when it comes to home entertainment.

Furthermore, the idea of investing in an individual stock simply because it seems "consistent" or pays a dividend is fundamentally flawed. You can buy an index of dividend stocks, or blue chips, with far less risk in many funds and ETFs. In my opinion, when you're putting your real money behind a company that could go belly-up -- and every company could -- you should believe it is on the cusp of big things. 

The traditional TV business model is at the beginning of a fundamental decline. If you disagree with me on this fact, then you very well may decide to hold on to shares, but just know that even Time Warner CEO Glenn Britt has admitted the industry is in "denial" over the challenges from digital entertainment.

The variety of sources that we get entertainment from is expanding, and thus, so is competition for traditional cable providers.

This fascinating article from Business Insider showcases the data that points out how vast the threat to TV, and cable, from digital and mobile viewing is. In the article, we see that TV's market share of U.S. media consumption has declined by 7% in just four short years, and that fewer households even have a TV. All the while, since 2010, the number of new cable subscriptions has declined by more half a million, yet shareholders remain blissfully unaware or unfazed as they push all of these stocks higher. 

What all of these companies represent is a potential trap. We, the viewing public, have known the "consistency" of television and cable for decades, but it faces some serious challenges today. While I don't believe the traditional TV will ever go away, I do believe that content from digital and mobile sources will splinter advertising dollars and hinder these cable providers' growth. 

It's worth noting that Comcast does have other non-cable businesses such as NBC that provide original content. That makes Comcast much less risky than Charter and Time Warner, and even companies like DISH Network, but I wanted to include it in this discussion for two reasons.

  1. Comcast still earns the majority, 65%, of its business from cable and Internet subscriptions.
  2. Comcast has been mentioned as the second, and perhaps preferred, suitor to acquire Time Warner Cable.

I don't know who is purchasing Time Warner; it could be Comcast or it could be nobody. The point is, nobody knows, and any catalyst based on these rumors is pure speculation. 

The fact that these stocks, especially Charter Communications, were up on this news last week is very troubling. In Charter Communications you have a business that went bankrupt a few years ago, and has been largely unprofitable since, up more than 60% this year on speculation of a merger. That's pretty risky fare, especially when you consider the merger would just be buying into another potentially declining cable business, and not an original content provider (e.g., Comcast buying NBC). Sure, a merger would consolidate competition and improve margins, but that might be a wash with increased digital competition. 

Foolish conclusion: Invest in tomorrow
I feel that the best investments are born when great businesses meet the game-changing trends of tomorrow. The only recommendation I can give is to limit your individual stock picks to a few select businesses that meet that criteria. 

In other words, if you believe that cable TV will withstand a mobile onslaught of competitors unscathed, or if you really believe in the management team at Charter Communications, then you may want to hold on to your shares. But if you don't feel that way, or if you aren't sure in either case, you may want to consider selling your shares.

There's nothing wrong with taking a profit now, and avoiding an uncertain future. 

What might the future of TV look like?
The future of television begins now... with an all-out $2.2 trillion media war that pits cable companies like Cox, Comcast, and Time Warner against technology giants like Apple, Google, and Netflix. The Motley Fool's shocking video presentation explains why the only real winners are these three lesser-known power players that film your favorite shows. Click here to watch today!

The article 3 Reasons to Sell Your Cable Stocks Today originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Adem Tahiri has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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What Happened to These 3 Market Dogs of 2013?

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Benjamin Graham, one of history's greatest investors, taught many investors -- including Warren Buffett, his student at Columbia University -- that the best way to find prospective investments was to search the papers weekly to find the market's most depressed stocks. So I've taken it a step further and searched for some of the most depressed stocks of this year in an attempt to try and figure out what went wrong and what the future holds for these market dogs.

Slashing dividends
First up is dividend slasher Atlantic Power , down 69% year to date.

What went wrong? Historically, Atlantic Power was a dividend company, paying out what seemed to be a secure annualized dividend yield of around 10% in monthly payouts. However, earlier this year the company slashed its payout from $0.10 per share per month to $0.03 per share per month. For many, this seemed like a prudent move, considering the company needed to conserve cash for expansion and debt repayments, but greedy dividend investors punished the company


But what does the future hold? It now seems Atlantic Power is in a better position than it was before. For example, Atlantic's dividend yield of 10.2% is now covered twice by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and, amortization -- a.k.a. EBITDA -- whereas before it was barely covered by EBITDA.

It's also important to remember that utility companies require a lot of capital equipment, which can lead to high depreciation costs. So, although a company may report a loss, it can actually be making a cash profit. This is exactly the case for Atlantic. Indeed, while the company reported a loss for the fiscal third quarter, it actually generated free cash flow of $38 million -- more than enough to cover the dividend payout.

What's more, the company is selling off noncore assets to reduce debt and reinvesting cash into renewable-energy assets, which should pay off over the long term. Green energy is supposed to be the next big thing, right? 

All in all, Atlantic's dividend appears to be safe for now, the company is committed to debt reduction, and investments in renewable-energy technologies should lead to long-term profits. Atlantic looks attractive at these levels -- did I mention the company also trades at a discount to book value?

Falling foul of the FDA
Next up we have Intuitive Surgical , which has lost about 22% this year.

Intuitive was originally sent sliding after the company revealed back in July that its da Vinci robot operating systems were under investigation by the FDA. It was also reported that the FDA was surveying surgeons about the safety of robot products.

What's more, the FDA reportedly found a number of deficiencies in Intuitive's incident reporting history. Things only got worse at the beginning of this month when the FDA revealed that the number of adverse incident reports involving Intuitive's robots had more than doubled this year. Granted, an increase in incidents naturally accompanies the increasing adoption of surgical robots.

But what now? More incident reports and increasing FDA scrutiny are hurting Intuitive's sales. In particular, the company reported that during its fiscal third quarter it only sold 101 da Vinci robot systems, compared with 155 a year earlier. Many analysts now believe that unless Intuitive comes up with some conclusive data on the benefits of the system, sales will continue to decline. However, there have been suggestions that Intuitive's problems are due to the fact that hospitals have been hesitant to spend large amounts of cash on the company's expensive robotic devices, as hospitals face many financial challenges.

Granted, Intuitive is buying back $1.5 billion of its own stock with the impressive cash balance it has built up during the past few years, which works out at about 10% of the company's market capitalization. Based on numbers reported for the fiscal third quarter, Intuitive has cash worth $31.60 per share.

Nonetheless, Intuitive continues to trade at a high earnings multiple, which, based on that fact that the company's sales are declining, looks to be unwarranted. Moreover, some might question the company's motives in using cash to buy back stock trading at a high earnings multiple.

Unless Intuitive can prove that its equipment is better than human surgeons, the company's sales will likely continue to decline. In addition, buying back stock at these levels does not look like good fiscal management. Maybe avoid this one for now.

A not-so-precious miner
Lastly, we have miner Coeur Mining .

What went wrong? Coeur, like the rest of the mining industry, is suffering from contracting profit margins as costs rise and precious-metals prices fall.

But what now? Unfortunately, Coeur's fortunes are, for the most part, tied to the silver market and Federal Reserve policy. That said, the company's outlook is not all guesswork, as there are some signs that Coeur could be driving its own fortunes.

For example, between now and fiscal 2016, Coeur is targeting a compounded 25% increase in silver production, which should mitigate some declines in the silver price. In addition, according to fiscal second-quarter numbers, Coeur's net debt-to-equity ratio was less than 5%, which gives me confidence that the company will be able to ride out these tough times in the silver market.

Having said all of that, according to my research, Coeur's average all-in sustaining cash cost of production per ounce of silver is around $19.43 based on fiscal second-quarter numbers, which indicates that the company's profit margin per ounce of silver sold at current prices is only around $1. 

Still, Coeur is trading at a discount to book, and in my opinion, this always mitigates some risk when investing in companies with a mixed outlook like Coeur. Taking a longer-term view, I feel Coeur is destined for greatness. The company is preserving cash and ramping up production, and it should benefit from rising silver prices in the long term.

It takes time
So in the case of Coeur and Atlantic, it would appear that investors have punished the companies for short-term mistakes with no concern for their long-term outlooks. It's no secret that investors tend to be impatient with the market, but the best investment strategy is to buy shares in solid businesses and keep them for the long term. In the special free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich," The Motley Fool shares investment ideas and strategies that could help you build wealth for years to come. Click here to grab your free copy today.

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The article What Happened to These 3 Market Dogs of 2013? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Rupert Hargreaves has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Intuitive Surgical. The Motley Fool owns shares of Intuitive Surgical. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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