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Will Kinross Gold's New Mine Offset Lower Prices?

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Gold prices have shown no mercy for gold miners this year. It's no surprise that companies like Kinross Gold , Eldorado Gold , and Yamana Gold trade near their yearly lows. Despite this, Kinross Gold recently opened its high-grade Dvoinoye mine in Russia. Will it help the company weather the gold price storm?

Slashing expenditures
The price of gold falls fast, and companies have a hard time keeping pace with it and pushing their costs lower. Kinross Gold sold its production for an average $1,331 per ounce in the third quarter. This number will clearly be lower in the fourth quarter barring some sort of miracle.

Capital expenditures are the first thing to slash in such an environment. Kinross Gold lowered its 2013 capital expenditure guidance from $1.6 billion to $1.4 billion. What's more, the company expects that its 2014 capital spend would come in the $800 million-$900 million range.


The Dvoinoye mine in Russia will contribute 235,000-300,000 ounces of gold annually for Kinross. The company will spend just $200 million-$300 million on growth next year, as $600 million is going to be spent on the sustaining capital.

Eldorado Gold makes similar moves. The miner has delayed the expansion of its Kisladag project in Turkey. Eldorado has already reduced this year's capital expenditures budget by 36% and exploration budget by 48%.

Yamana Gold has managed to decrease its all-in sustaining costs by 12% since the first quarter. Despite unfavorable price conditions, Yamana is expecting a production increase in the fourth quarter. However, as most other miners, Yamana is targeting significantly lower expansionary capital levels in 2014.

Some safety cushion left
The long-term problem that can arise for gold miners is that they cannot defer new projects forever. At some point, a company must replenish depleting reserves. However, this problem is not likely to occur in the short or even medium-term. Companies' project pipelines were fueled by increases in gold prices in previous years. All they have to do now is complete what they've already started.

To do this, producing an ounce of gold must be cheaper than selling it. Kinross is in good position with its new Dvoinoye mine, as Russia is a low-cost territory for the miner. In the first three quarters of the year, Kinross had an all-in sustaining cost of $1,045 per ounce. As Dvoinoye reaches full production, this figure is likely to decline further.

Given that the company cut its capital expenditures target for the next year and suspended the dividend, Kinross has some safety cushion against the further drop in gold prices. With $932 million of cash on hand in the end of the third quarter and $1.5 billion of undrawn credit facility, Kinross' financial position looks solid. The company's long-term debt is less than $2.1 billion, and there are no material debt maturities prior to 2016.

Bottom line
Kinross' financial position and cost profile look good, but downside risks persist. If gold prices continue to decline, it's likely that the company will not contribute any money to growth in the coming year. Also, I don't expect that the dividend will be reinitiated in 2014.

The company already trades at an almost 25% discount to book, but is likely to trade even lower in the near term. Gold price decline dominates investors' minds right now, and miners' shares will test their yearly lows as gold drifts down to $1,200 per ounce.

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The article Will Kinross Gold's New Mine Offset Lower Prices? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Vladimir Zernov has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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What Is the Penalty for Not Getting Health Insurance?

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You may have heard that, under Obamacare, everyone is required to have health insurance -- or pay a penalty. This is technically called the individual mandate, but it doesn't apply to everyone. Use this guide to determine if you're exempt from the penalty, what the tax penalty will cost you, and how it will be enforced -- and use this information to weigh your options when making decisions about getting insured.

Who is exempt from the individual mandate?
First, let's take a quick quiz. Are you:

  • A member of a religion that is known for objecting to insurance (including Medicare and Social Security)?
  • A member of a known health care-sharing ministry?
  • American Indian?
  • An individual/family whose household income falls below the tax threshold (i.e., you don't file a federal tax return)?
  • An individual who has been without health-care coverage for less than three consecutive months?
  • Suffering from certified hardship that prevents you from enrolling in coverage?
  • An individual/family with a household income that puts the lowest cost insurance plan at greater than 8% of your income?
  • Incarcerated, and not awaiting the disposition of charges against you?
  • An undocumented immigrant, U.S. national, or alien?
  • A citizen who has been abroad for more than one year?

Did you answer yes to any of these questions?

If so, you're exempt from the individual mandate! Depending on your exemption, you may need to file for a certificate of exemption through your marketplace. If you're exempt, you essentially don't have to worry about the individual mandate or the penalty for noncompliance. 


How much is the tax penalty?
Those of you who didn't fall into one of the exemption categories will need to buy health insurance before March 31 or pay the penalty. The tax penalty will be phased in starting in 2014 and will be in full effect by 2016.

The government calculates your penalty in one of two ways. The first way is to charge you a fee per adult and another fee per child, but no more than a set total per family; the second way is to charge you a percentage of your family income. You don't get to pick -- your penalty will be the higher of the two sums.

By 2016, you will have to pay the greater of $695 per adult and $347.50 per child (no more than $2,085 per family) or 2.5% of your family income. Following is a fee table starting from 2014.

How will the tax penalty be enforced?
The easy answer is that the government will enforce the penalty through your tax filings. If you choose to take the penalty, but you're unable to afford the payment when tax time comes, the IRS will work out a solution for you. In regard to the individual mandate tax penalty, the IRS cannot impose a lien or levy, or send what you owe to collections.

Tried finding insurance, but running into glitches on the government marketplace sites?
Try an established health insurance marketplace site such as eHealthInsurance.com to see your complete range of options. Be sure to select 2013 to see the plans available now: To see Obamacare plans, select 2014 in your search.

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The article What Is the Penalty for Not Getting Health Insurance? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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The 2014 Chevy Silverado Is Still Losing Ground

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When General Motors launched its new 2014 Chevy Silverado pickup -- and its near-twin, the GMC Sierra -- it was hoping to reach parity with industry leader Ford Motor . Ford's F-Series trucks have been the best selling nameplate in the U.S. for decades, but combined, the Silverado and Sierra have been right behind the F-Series in sales volume. Unfortunately, thus far the new trucks haven't had the desired effect on sales.

The 2014 Chevy Silverado (Photo: General Motors)


Instead, GM's desire to raise average transaction prices, along with Ford's targeted use of incentives , have actually allowed Ford to gain market share at the expense of the 2014 Chevy Silverado and the GMC Sierra.

Modest sales growth
GM executives have repeatedly stated that everything is fine with the new pickup launch. However, the 2014 Chevy Silverado's sales numbers have been nothing to write home about. In November, GM sold 34,386 Silverados and 14,362 Sierras, for a total of 48,748 full-size pickups, up 15% year-over-year .

That sales gain doesn't look nearly as good when you consider that GM had a terrible month for pickup sales in November 2012 . Furthermore, Ford -- which had a strong sales performance last November -- put together another solid gain, with F-Series sales up 16.5% last month .

The F-150 may be due for an overhaul, but it still outsells the competition easily (Photo: Ford)

In fact, Ford has now posted seven straight months of selling at least 60,000 F-Series pickups . This has allowed it to win back all of the market share it lost to GM earlier this year, and then some.

In November specifically, Ford sold 65,501 F-Series trucks -- 34% more than GM's total (combining Silverado and Sierra). Looking back over the last four months in total, Ford has outsold GM in the full-size pickup market by more than 20%.

Missed opportunity

The 2014 Chevy Silverado release was probably GM's best opportunity to level the pickup playing field with Ford, but that hasn't happened. It's true that GM has gained ground in terms of pricing, but Ford's pickups still have the highest average selling price in the market, despite the discounts that have helped the F-Series gain market share.

The competition with Ford will only get tougher next year. Ford is expected to introduce its next-generation F-Series pickup in early 2014, which will hit dealer lots later in the year. The new Ford F-Series trucks are expected to resemble the "Atlas" concept, which incorporates a number of enhancements, particularly to fuel economy .

The next-generation Ford F-150 may be similar to the "Atlas" concept truck (Photo: Ford)

In total, the new Ford F-150 could offer a 3 mpg improvement in fuel economy compared to the 2014 models . Since one of GM's main marketing messages is that the 2014 Chevy Silverado offers better fuel economy with a V8 engine than a Ford F-150 with a V6 EcoBoost, Ford has a lot to gain by leapfrogging GM in fuel economy again .

If GM is looking to narrow the market-share gap with Ford, it has a relatively short window of opportunity. The pickup market tends to be fairly "sticky" -- it's hard to break a buyer's loyalty to one brand -- so GM's best chance to gain share is while it has a product advantage. By this time next year, Ford will have the newest truck on the block, giving it the initiative in the race for market share.

Foolish bottom line
The 2014 Chevy Silverado has been well-received (as has its twin, the 2014 GMC Sierra), and GM executives claim that they are happy with the rollout so far. However, from a market-share perspective, the new pickups have not succeeded yet. Despite having the oldest product in the pickup market, Ford is actually gaining share, as GM has resolutely held the line on discounting.

The problem for GM is that Ford will release its own new pickup in less than a year. If GM is having trouble gaining share while cutting back on incentives today, it will be even harder to drive sales growth without discounts next year. GM executives should therefore consider being a little more aggressive on pricing for the 2014 Chevy Silverado in order to gain share while it still has the newest truck among the Big Three.

Given how high pickup margins are -- and how many repeat buyers there are -- long-term share loss is probably a bigger concern than incremental margin erosion. Today, GM has arguably the best pickup on the market . A year from now, that might no longer be the case. It's time to strike while the iron is hot.

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The article The 2014 Chevy Silverado Is Still Losing Ground originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Adam Levine-Weinberg has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Ford and General Motors. The Motley Fool owns shares of Ford. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Should ExxonMobil Break Itself Up?

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As it's often said, breaking up is hard to do. That's especially true in the energy world, where integrated behemoths like ExxonMobil simultaneously operate several different businesses across the upstream, midstream, and downstream spectrum. This has pronounced benefits, including lower volatility of overall results, since one segment's suffering is commonly offset by another's strength.

At the same time, an oil major splitting up may unlock value for shareholders. That was the mentality behind ConocoPhillips spinning off its refining and midstream businesses, and it's worked out very well. ExxonMobil's shares have underperformed both the overall market and many of its closest competitors this year, which begs the question: Would shareholders benefit from a break-up?

Are the parts worth more than the whole?
That's got to be the key question if ExxonMobil were to ponder a break-up. It's a consideration that merits discussion, especially considering the success ConocoPhillips had in its own spinoffs. You'll recall that ConocoPhillips spun off its refining unit, Phillips 66 , last year. Phillips 66 even went a step further, spinning off its own midstream assets into master limited partnership Phillips 66 Partners .


The move by ConocoPhillips to make these businesses independently traded entities has indeed worked to shareholders' advantage. The spinoffs have unlocked considerable value, despite Phillips 66 seeing business deteriorate due to poor refining margins.

Consider that its refining business, the company's largest segment by far, saw earnings collapse by half through the first nine months of the year. This has more than offset growth in other areas, including its chemicals and specialties businesses. In all, Phillips 66 reported 15% lower earnings through the first three quarters. And yet, even while struggling so much this year, Phillips 66 shares sit at a 52-week high.

Phillips 66 Partners presents an interesting story, as it's a self-described 'growth-oriented' MLP. That means while Phillips 66 Partners yields just 2%, not nearly as much as many oil and gas MLPs, its focus is on growth. Phillips 66 Partners saw huge demand when it held its initial public offering earlier this year, meaning investors are obviously on board with its strategy.

Its units had an IPO price of $23 and quickly surged 30% to nearly $30 per unit on the first day of trading. As a result, there's precedent that indicates ExxonMobil's separate businesses may be worth more than the sum of the parts.

The risk of going it alone
Of course, the flip side of this argument deserves attention. The risk of underperformance of one or more of its individual segments is a very real concern. The integrated model ExxonMobil currently employs allows for inherently less volatility of its underlying results.

As previously mentioned, the poor environment for refining has severely affected most refiners, including Phillips 66. ExxonMobil's own refining unit is performing poorly as well, which is overshadowing relatively strong performance in other areas of its business. Consider that ExxonMobil's earnings fell 18% in the third quarter and are down 31% year to date, due almost entirely to its refining difficulties.

As a result, should ExxonMobil spin off its refining (or other) segments, investors in those particular units would be more vulnerable should business conditions worsen. However, investors may appreciate having the option to pick and choose which businesses they'd like to invest in. ConocoPhillips, Phillips 66, and Phillips 66 Partners each currently enjoy rising share prices while ExxonMobil has underperformed the market this year.

Should ExxonMobil follow a similar path as ConocoPhillips, it's true that each individual business would no longer enjoy the relative comfort of being under one big umbrella. On their own, specific businesses are clearly more susceptible to the troubles of their respective industries. That hasn't had a pronounced negative effect on ConocoPhillips, Phillips 66, or Phillips 66 Partners to this point. And that means ExxonMobil may have enough evidence to support a decision to break up.

OPEC hates it, Buffett loves it
Imagine a company that rents a very specific and valuable piece of machinery for $41,000... per hour (that's almost as much as the average American makes in a year!). And Warren Buffett is so confident in this company's can't-live-without-it business model, he just loaded up on 8.8 million shares. An exclusive, brand-new Motley Fool report reveals the company we're calling OPEC's Worst Nightmare. Just click HERE to uncover the name of this industry-leading stock... and join Buffett in his quest for a veritable LANDSLIDE of profits!

The article Should ExxonMobil Break Itself Up? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Bob Ciura has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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A Revolution in Mining Is Underway

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A revolution in mining is currently under way. Caterpillar is leading the field in automated mining equipment, which is driving down costs, boosting output and improving safety.

The last year has been a landmark year for automation within the mining industry as, back in July, a fleet of fully automated mining trucks was deployed for the first time. This space-age tech was deployed in Australia, where a fleet of 45 self-directed 240-ton Caterpillar mining trucks took the field and their deployment sent shivers around the industry.

The truck in question is Caterpillar's 793F off-highway truck, famed as one of the lowest cost per ton trucks available to the mining industry. Traditionally, these trucks would require four drivers in four shifts to operate at maximum efficiency 24 hours a day. So, Caterpillar's initial test fleet of 45 trucks would require 180 drivers, each on a salary of more than $100,000 per year; with automation there is no need for this high-cost labor.


This kind of automation and cost cutting is exactly what the mining industry needs as it grapples with rising costs and falling revenues. Actually, one of the industry's most concerning factors is the rapidly rising cost of skilled labor. Specifically, the cost of building an iron ore mine in Australia has almost doubled over the past five years to almost $195 per tonne, mostly due to rapidly rising wages.

This kind of automation and regeneration is also exactly what Caterpillar needs. In particular, as capital spending within the mining industry slows, Caterpillar's contracting revenue is falling rapidly. However, as mines upgrade their old trucks to newer, automated systems in an attempt to reduce costs, Caterpillar should see some strength in its order book.

One of many benefits
Nonetheless, falling labor costs are only one of many benefits that the mining industry will get from automation. Reduced incident rates, less down time, fewer mistakes, fuel efficiency and reduced wear and tear are all added benefits of using an automated fleet without human mistakes. Still, the fleet will need to be controlled, and this is done from a control center, but the trucks are programmed to operate in the most cost-effective and efficient way.

Rio Tinto is the leader in autonomous mining with one of the largest autonomous truck fleets working across three mines within Australia. The speed at which Rio has deployed these fleets highlights how desperate the industry is to use this tech.

Rio claims that the biggest success of the Autonomous Haulage System, or AHS, is that the trucks can work 24 hours a day with a much higher level of safety, as they never get distracted or tired, like human drivers. Additionally, the company states that its decision to use the system was supported by fact that the company would no longer need to deal with the hassle of moving human drivers back and forth between the remote mines.

The AHS is a key component in Rio's strategy of employing next-generation technology to increase efficiency, reduce costs, and improve health and safety. Rio has already reported a 10% improvement in utilized time with the AHS at its Pilbara mine in Australia. In the multi-billion dollar world of megamining a 10% improvement in utilization can add hundreds of millions to the company's bottom line.

Shifting oil
Suncor
is another company planning to introduce an AHS. If we factor in the 10% improvement that Rio has seen, we can gauge how beneficial this will be to Suncor's investors.

At present, Suncor's overall production cost per barrel of oil is around $35 and the company's year-to-date average barrel per day production from oil sands is 347,000. A 10% increase after the introduction of an AHS would lead to an average daily production of 382,000 barrels per day from oil sands. In effect this would add an extra $3.5 million a day, $1.3 billion a year to the company's top line. That's only a 3.3% boost to 2012 revenue. However, these numbers are only estimates and it is likely that the company would note lower costs from the transition as well, improving profit margins.

Foolish summary
The age of automation is just beginning within the mining industry, and it should lead to lower costs and larger profits. Caterpillar, as one of the pioneers behind this technology, should see a huge boost to sales as miners' clock onto the cost savings that can be achieved by using this technology. Thankfully, this comes at a time when the company is struggling due to poor levels of mine capital spending. However, I feel that this technology is something that miners will want to spend their hard-earned cash on.

See our top stock for the new year
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The article A Revolution in Mining Is Underway originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Rupert Hargreaves owns shares of Caterpillar. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Is Hewlett-Packard Stock a Buy After Its Recent Earnings Rally?

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If you'd have told tech investors two years ago that then-struggling Hewlett-Packard would have trounced the performance of any of the names in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from which Hewlett-Packard was expelled earlier this year, you'd probably have raised more than your fair share of eyebrows.

Source: HP.

Fast-forward to today, and HP, under the guidance of CEO Meg Whitman, has made some impressive strides to plug the many holes that threatened to bring down Hewlett-Packard years ago.

But what about next year?
And even despite having nearly doubled in 2013 alone, HP remains perhaps one of the most challenging investment calls in tech as we roll into the new year.


In assessing its financial performance, it becomes clear HP isn't exactly shooting the lights out. In its most recent quarter, HP saw revenue and profits both decline amid fierce competition in virtually every area of its business. Worse yet, those same headwinds appear likely to last well into next year, if not further. However, when you look at its current pricing, HP still looks like a compelling value on paper.

So what's the verdict? Is HP still a home-run stock or a horror story in the making?

In this video, tech and telecom analyst Andrew Tonner gives his opinion on Hewlett-Packard stock at today's prices.

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The article Is Hewlett-Packard Stock a Buy After Its Recent Earnings Rally? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Andrew Tonner has no position in any stocks mentioned. Follow Andrew and all his writing on Twitter at @AndrewTonnerThe Motley Fool recommends Cisco Systems and owns shares of IBM. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Why This Oil Shift Is Likely to Be a Profitable One

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Resource diversification has allowed BHP Billiton  to remain profitable despite generally weak mining markets. Looking to further diversify, BHP recently pushed deeper into oil and natural gas because of relatively high oil prices.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold followed suit this year. The problem is that drilling for oil is outside of their comfort zones. That's why Canada's Teck Resources moving into the oil sands makes more sense.

Similar but different
Drilling and mining are similar businesses but are different enough that a company can't easily transfer base knowledge between operations. And machinery and equipment can't really be shared, either. So, in some important ways, they are wildly different businesses.


That's one of the reasons why Freeport bought Plains Exploration & Production and McMoRan Exploration, for a total cost of around $19 billion, earlier this year. By purchasing a driller, it didn't need to learn new skills. Oil and gas now comprises about a quarter of Freeport's business.

And although the move is still relatively recent, in the third quarter the company noted that an "impressive and significant contribution from" oil and gas was a big support to the top and bottom lines. Clearly, management is happy with the move, particularly since copper and gold prices fell 9% and 16%, respectively, through the first three quarters, year over year, while oil prices remain strong.

BHP Billiton made a similar push in 2011 when it bought Petrohawk Energy for around $15 billion. In fiscal 2013, which ended in June, BHP saw similar weakness to Freeport in its mined materials, including iron ore, copper, and coal, that led to a bottom-line decline of about 30%. However, oil prices only dipped 4% and natural gas prices were up 17%. All in, BHP's likely been just as happy as Freeport to own a drilling business.

Change can be risky
That said, drilling for oil isn't the same as mining for copper and iron ore. BP is the poster child for drilling disasters, but ExxonMobil and Shell aren't strangers to such issues. That's why the oil move Teck Resources is making is so logical. Teck isn't trying to learn new skills or taking on new risks like BHP and Freeport did; it's just going to mine the stuff in the Canadian oil sands.

Teck, which mines for coal and other resources, has partnered with Suncor and Total on the Fort Hills Oil Sands project. Both are experienced oil companies, with Suncor holding a key position in the oil sands. Each brings something important to the table.

And Teck believes Fort Hills has an expected life of greater than 50 years versus most oil operations, which face "very steep depletion curve[s]." But, the best part is that it "will be large truck and shovel operations and... [will] allow us to leverage what is our core competency in this business and that is large scale bulk mining." In other words, Teck just has to be Teck to make this work.

The miner expects that it will eventually get about 13 million barrels of oil a year for its 20% stake in the operation after it starts up in late 2017. That gives Teck plenty of time to get ready for selling oil, which is the only "new" task it really needs to learn.

A different approach
So while BHP and Freeport have benefited from taking on the risks of oil drilling, Teck has gone down a different path. Although that doesn't guarantee success, mining for oil reduces the business risk that Teck must face as it, too, incorporates a new resource into its portfolio. That could make the miner an interesting contrarian play for those seeking a diversified miner -- and nothing else.

The best way to invest in energy?
Imagine a company that rents a very specific and valuable piece of machinery for $41,000... per hour (that's almost as much as the average American makes in a year!). And Warren Buffett is so confident in this company's can't-live-without-it business model, he just loaded up on 8.8 million shares. An exclusive, brand-new Motley Fool report reveals the company we're calling OPEC's Worst Nightmare. Just click HERE to uncover the name of this industry-leading stock... and join Buffett in his quest for a veritable LANDSLIDE of profits!

  

The article Why This Oil Shift Is Likely to Be a Profitable One originally appeared on Fool.com.

Reuben Brewer has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Total SA. (ADR). The Motley Fool owns shares of Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful

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This past Wednesday marked the one-year anniversary of the real-money Inflation-Protected Income Growth portfolio. The year-in-review article that celebrated that portfolio's first successful year omitted one company whose stock is in that portfolio, pipeline giant Kinder Morgan . That stock was left out of the review for a very good reason: On Wednesday, Kinder Morgan's stock fell on disappointing guidance, and that drop provided me too good an opportunity to pass up.

On the drop, I bought shares in my wife's IRA, paying $33.16 per share (plus commissions). By buying, the Fool's disclosure rules meant I couldn't mention the stock until now. At that price, Kinder Morgan's anticipated $1.72 dividend over the next year hands her IRA a nearly 5.2% yield. In addition, the prospects for continued dividend growth that made the company a worthy IPIG portfolio pick are still fundamentally in place, although the growth may not be as quick as previously anticipated.

What made it time to buy?
Kinder Morgan doesn't often go on sale in the market. In fact, almost immediately after it was originally selected for the IPIG portfolio, its shares leaped past my buy-below price. Indeed, it almost got away from the portfolio because its shares quickly became too pricy to buy. Only a subsequent correction knocked the company's shares down to where they became reasonable to buy.


This past Wednesday, while the shares were down on the news, a quick valuation estimate suggested that Kinder Morgan still looked to be worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $36 per share. The 2014 dividend, while lower than initially expected, is still anticipated to be higher than the 2013 dividend was at this time last year, which helps buffer the drops from the lower expected growth rates. A market price around $33 with a valuation around $36 on Kinder Morgan was a deal too good to pass up.

Do as Buffett says
As master investor Warren Buffett has said, "[T]ry to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." While the IPIG portfolio is willing to buy companies trading at up to a reasonable estimate of their fair values, it's also willing to pay less than that estimate, should the market offer such an opportunity. A valuation discipline helped the IPIG portfolio not overpay for Kinder Morgan when the shares were at risk of getting away, and it helped it buy other companies at decent discounts.

Perhaps the clearest case of the IPIG portfolio's picking up a discount by being greedy and buying when others were fearful came from defense contractor Raytheon . Raytheon was selected when the defense sequester spooked investors out of its shares. Raython's stock fell so far that, even if the worst of what was expected from the sequester happened, the stock still looked reasonably priced. When reality turned out better than fears, Raytheon shares took off -- and the IPIG portfolio benefited.

Similarly, the IPIG portfolio picked up shares of pharmacy retailer Walgreen at a relatively bargain price. When selected, Walgreen was finishing up a fight over reimbursements with pharmacy benefits manager Express Scripts that cost Walgreen nearly $4 billion in annual revenue.

The market feared that Walgreen wouldn't get the customers back, but the IPIG portfolio was willing to buy anyway, because Walgreen's stock looked reasonably priced even if those customers stayed away. When Walgreen's business started showing signs of recovery, its stock bounced back -- and the IPIG portfolio benefited

Solid companies at reasonable prices
While the IPIG portfolio will happily take advantage of a bargain if the market chooses to offer it one, the portfolio is primarily focused on owning solid companies purchased at reasonable prices. So long as their dividends look capable of continuing to grow, their balance sheets don't become overleveraged, and their valuations look reasonable, existing IPIG picks can remain in the portfolio. With a collection of stocks that share those key characteristics, the portfolio finished this past week looking like this:

Company Name

Purchase Date

Total Investment (Including Commissions)

Current Value
Dec. 6, 2013

Current Yield
Dec. 6, 2013

United Technologies

Dec. 10, 2012

$1,464.82

$2,000.16

2.12%

Teva Pharmaceutical

Dec. 12, 2012

$1,519.40

$1,506.70

3.21%

J.M. Smucker

Dec. 13, 2012

$1,483.45

$1,773.44

2.22%

Genuine Parts

Dec. 21, 2012

$1,476.47

$1,879.56

2.63%

Mine Safety Appliances

Dec. 21, 2012

$1,504.96

$1,805.76

2.39%

Microsoft

Dec. 26, 2012

$1,499.15

$2,109.80

2.92%

Hasbro

Dec. 28, 2012

$1,520.60

$2,225.68

3.09%

NV Energy

Dec. 31, 2012

$1,504.72

$1,988.28

3.21%

UPS

Jan. 2, 2013

$1,524.00

$2,048.60

2.42%

Walgreen

Jan. 4, 2013

$1,501.80

$2,268.40

2.22%

Texas Instruments

Jan. 7, 2013

$1,515.70

$2,044.03

2.76%

Union Pacific

Jan. 22, 2013

$805.42

$986.04

1.92%

CSX

Jan. 22, 2013

$712.50

$943.50

2.16%

McDonald's

Jan. 24, 2013

$1,499.64

$1,548.80

3.35%

Becton, Dickinson

Jan. 31, 2013

$1,518.64

$1,950.30

2.01%

AFLAC

Feb. 5, 2013

$1,466.35

$1,799.28

2.22%

Air Products & Chemicals

Feb. 11, 2013

$1,510.99

$1,861.67

2.59%

Raytheon

Feb. 22, 2013

$1,473.91

$2,340.36

2.54%

Emerson Electric

April 3, 2013

$1,548.12

$1,881.04

2.56%

Wells Fargo

May 30, 2013

$1,525.48

$1,632.07

2.72%

Kinder Morgan

June 21, 2013

$1,518.37

$1,407.42

4.89%

Cash

   

$644.19

 

   

 

Data from the iPIG portfolio brokerage account, as of Dec. 6, 2013.

The power of dividends over time
While an individual dividend may seem like a small thing, over time, dividend stocks can make you rich. It's as simple as that. While they don't garner the notability of high-flying growth stocks, they're also less likely to crash and burn. Also, over the long term, the compounding effect of the quarterly payouts, as well as their growth, adds up faster than most investors imagine.

With this in mind, our analysts sat down to identify the absolute best of the best when it comes to rock-solid dividend stocks, drawing up a list in this free report of nine that fit the bill. To discover the identities of these companies before the rest of the market catches on, you can download this valuable free report by simply clicking here now.

To follow the IPIG portfolio as buy and sell decisions are made, watch Chuck's article feed by clicking here. To join The Motley Fool's free discussion board dedicated to the IPIG portfolio, simply click here.

The article Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful originally appeared on Fool.com.

Chuck Saletta owns shares of Aflac; Texas Instruments; Microsoft; McDonald's; Genuine Parts; Raytheon; United Technologies; Wells Fargo; Teva Pharmaceutical Industries; Emerson Electric; Becton, Dickinson; Walgreen; Union Pacific; Hasbro; UPS; CSX; J.M. Smucker; Air Products & Chemicals; Mine Safety Appliances; Kinder Morgan; and NV Energy. The Motley Fool recommends Aflac; Becton, Dickinson; Emerson Electric; Express Scripts; Hasbro; Kinder Morgan; McDonald's; Mine Safety Appliances; Teva Pharmaceutical Industries; UPS; and Wells Fargo and owns shares of CSX, Express Scripts, Hasbro, Kinder Morgan, McDonald's, Microsoft, Raytheon, and Wells Fargo. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Why Apple Will Dominate This Christmas

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Things seem to be going Apple's way right now, just in time for the crucial holiday season. In the following video, David Meier and John Reeves talk about why Apple is likely to exceed expectations this Christmas.

David notes that Apple has updated its important products, and that customers still love using its devices. So far, usage data at the beginning of the holiday shopping season has been favorable to Apple.

John and David believe Apple still represents a great investing opportunity, since the overall market still feels growth will be elusive for the company. Long-term investors might want to consider buying shares at these prices.


Get in on this tech trend
Interested in the next tech revolution? Then you'll need to learn about the radical technology shift some say forced the mighty Bill Gates into a premature retirement. Meanwhile, early in-the-know investors are already getting filthy rich off it, by quietly investing in the three companies that control its fortune-making future. You've heard of one of them, but probably not of the other two. To find out what they are, click here to watch this shocking video presentation!

The article Why Apple Will Dominate This Christmas originally appeared on Fool.com.

David Meier and John Reeves own shares of Apple. The Motley Fool recommends Apple and owns shares of Apple and China Mobile. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Dow 20,000 in 2015?

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Predictions are silly and usually wrong. However, in this segment from The Motley Fool's everything-financials show, Where the Money Is, analysts David Hanson and Matt Koppenheffer debate the probability of the Dow Jones Industrials  hitting 20,000 by the end of 2015. Matt takes the bull case, while David isn't as quick to hop aboard.

3 winning Dow stocks
If you're looking for some long-term investing ideas, you're invited to check out The Motley Fool's brand-new special report, "The 3 Dow Stocks Dividend Investors Need." It's absolutely free, so simply click here now and get your copy today.

The article Dow 20,000 in 2015? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Proof People Don't Hate Bank of America

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While many have denounced the banking services provided by the biggest banks like Bank of America , JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup , and others -- the most recent evidence shows their actions don't match their words.

The past
Over the last 20 years, there have been a number of dramatic changes in the banking landscape thanks to regulatory changes, paradigm shifts, and broad consolidation in the banking industry.

In the 1990s, the Reigle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act allowed banks to acquire other banks across state lines provided they met capital requirements, and the repeal of the Glass-Steagall gave banks the ability to have both commercial and investment banking operations.


The consolidation is no more evident than at the top, where of the five largest banks in 1994, the second bank acquired the first, and the third acquired the fourth in a dramatic example of the "bigger and better" mind-set that drove many executives at the helm of these largest banks.

Then (1994)Now (2013)
BankAmerica Corp Bank of America
NationsBank Corp Bank of America 
Chemical Banking Corp JPMorgan Chase 
Banc One Corp JPMorgan Chase 
Citicorp Citigroup

The present
As a result of this consolidation, the total number of banks in the U.S. has fallen from almost 13,000 in 1994 to approximately 6,950 today.

The end result of all of this is that the five largest banks went from having only 12% of total deposits in 1994, to almost 40% at the end of the second quarter of this year. Even more strikingly, the three largest banks in the U.S. had roughly 8.5% of deposits in 1994, to nearly 33% -- or more than $3 trillion -- today. The infographics below outline the dramatic changes in the banking industry over the past 20 years.

Although the ease by which a customer can switch from bank to bank has perhaps never been easier, the reality is that Americans are showing with their wallets -- even if they may not say it -- that they don't mind that their deposits are held by megabanks and not the smaller ones.

The future
Although the largest banks still hold a commanding lead in the share of deposits, the reality is, a major shift is coming to the banking sector. But if you want to learn how to take advantage of the impending bank renaissance, click below to discover the one company leading the way. You see, this fast-growing company is poised to disrupt big banking's centuries-old practices. And it stands to make early investors like YOU a fortune... if you act now. Our brand-new investor alert, "Big Banking's Little $20.8 Trillion Secret," lays bare every banker's darkest secret for the world to see. Simply click HERE for instant access!

The article Proof People Don't Hate Bank of America originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Patrick Morris owns shares of Bank of America. The Motley Fool recommends Bank of America. The Motley Fool owns shares of Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Why You Should Avoid Wal-Mart

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Consumer spending is slowing in the U.S., and the effects can be easily seen in the lackluster earnings results many retailers have recently posted. People are not willing to open their wallet,s even though their overall income has increased.

As a result,Wal-Mart announced disheartening third-quarter results that didn't meet analysts' expectations. Also, its dull outlook made investors largely unhappy.

The numbers
Wal-Mart's revenue inched up slightly to $114.9 billion. However, analysts expected sales of $116.8 billion. Comparable-store sales in the U.S. decreased 0.3% as fewer customers flocked to Wal-Mart stores. This was mainly because customers restricted their spending as they are trying to save every penny that they can.


The company's Sam's Club segment performed better with a comparable-store sales increase of 1.1%, since Sam's Club provides products at much lower prices to its members. In fact, Costco Wholesale , which operates membership warehouses, posted a 5% increase in its same-store sales as budget-conscious customers made bulk purchases from its warehouses in order to save money.

Although Costco witnessed higher customer traffic, an increase in costs led to a lower than expected bottom line in its recently reported quarter. Wal-Mart has been facing stiff competition from Costco in the warehouse segment. Moreover, Costco plans to expand its presence in Mexico by adding new stores and launching a Mexican e-commerce website. Wal-Mart also has a strong presence in Mexico.

Another factor which played a key role in Wal-Mart's underperformance was the closure of 50 stores in Brazil and China, which reduced revenue from the retailer's international segment. However, the retailer plans to add 100 stores in China in the years to come.

Endless challenges
Wal-Mart has a number of challenges which need to be overcome. Apart from macroeconomic factors such as low consumer demand, the retailer has to fight stiff competition from other players.

One of the challenges for Wal-Mart has been show-rooming. The emergence of online retailers such as Amazon.com , which delivers products at lower prices with the click of a mouse, has affected Wal-Mart's sales. Customers simply try on clothes in Wal-Mart stores and then buy them online from Amazon. Although Wal-Mart has expanded its e-commerce business significantly, it cannot compete on price with Amazon since the latter has no store-related costs. Additionally, Amazon has been expanding AmazonFresh, which will compete with Wal-Mart's grocery delivery business.

Wal-Mart has been trying to provide the lowest possible prices in order to attract the maximum number of customers, and it plans further price cuts. However, this will affect its margins as well as its bottom line. This justifies the lowered outlook that Wal-Mart provided with its quarterly results. The retailer now expects adjusted earnings between $5.11-$5.21 per share for the fiscal year, versus the range of $5.10-$5.30 per share it provided earlier.

The takeaway
Wal-Mart has not been able to live up to investors' expectations. Its disheartening results were accompanied by a dull outlook, leading to a drop in its stock price. Moreover, it has been witnessing declining store traffic, lower comps, and increased competition in all of its segments. Thus, a prudent investor should stay away from this company.

As Wal-Mart falls, who rises?
To learn about two retailers with especially good prospects, take a look at The Motley Fool's special free report: "The Death of Wal-Mart: The Real Cash Kings Changing the Face of Retail." In it, you'll see how these two cash kings are able to consistently outperform and how they're planning to ride the waves of retail's changing tide. You can access it by clicking here.

The article Why You Should Avoid Wal-Mart originally appeared on Fool.com.

Pratik Thacker has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Amazon.com and Costco Wholesale. The Motley Fool owns shares of Amazon.com and Costco Wholesale. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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What Everyone Ought to Know About the Bakken

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The Bakken has become the biggest development in the U.S. energy industry since Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. And while it has created enormous wealth for investors, you might not know exactly what's going on. Here's what everyone ought to know about the Bakken.

Production has increased 10x over the past five years
In the years leading up to 2008, production in the Bakken averaged less than 80,000 bpd. But adoption of technologies like hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have unlocked the play's bounty. In September, output from the formation hit a record 867,000 bpd, over a 10-fold increase within five years.

But this growth story is far from over. According to estimates from Goldman Sachs, total Bakken output could exceed 1.4 million bpd by 2019. 


Thicker margins are on the way
Not only is production growing, but more of those revenue figures are trickling down to the bottom line. Across the Bakken, operators are reporting declines in well completion costs due to a shift toward pad drilling, the falling price of hydraulic fracturing services, and other operational efficiencies. 

Oasis Petroleum  has been one of the top cost-cutters in the region, reducing its average well completion costs 25% over the past year to $8 million last quarter. When you multiply those cost savings over the 28 net wells the company drilled last quarter, Oasis will shave $70 million off the cost of its drilling program. 

70% of Bakken crude is shipped by rail
In January 2012, pipelines shipped three quarters of all crude oil output out of the Bakken with rail and trucks accounting for the rest. But new pipeline capacity has struggled to keep up with surging production. Today, those figures have almost completely reversed with rail moving 70% of Bakken production. 

Crude-by-rail has become an increasingly important marketing option for Bakken operators. EOG Resources , for example, now ships nearly all of its Bakken production via rail. The move has allowed the company to exploit differentials across the continent and secure the highest price possible for its output. 

But pipeline capacity should catch up. Enbridge , one of the largest shippers in the region, has almost doubled Bakken takeaway capacity to 475,000 bpd over the past two years. The company recently announced that it would add another 225,000 bpd to that figure by 2016.

Warning: Regulations could slow growth
In late September, an oil pipeline in northwestern North Dakota spewed an estimated 20,600 barrels of crude oil into a farmer's field. More troubling was the fact that it took regulators 12 days to alert the public.

This raises two issues for investors. First, will there be a public backlash against Bakken development after images of oil-soaked wheat fields are published? Second, does North Dakota have the regulations and infrastructure in place to accommodate this boom?

Indeed, new regulations against hydraulic fracturing are already in the works. The Obama Administration, in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management, is proposing new legislation to set standards for well integrity and managing polluted water. And while the law will only apply to Federal lands, the bill could serve as a model for state regulators on private lands. 

The Bakken is just the beginning
As big as the Bakken is, the real prize may lie deeper underground. According to the United States Geological Survey, the Three Forks formation could contain 3.7 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil. That figure is slightly larger than the Bakken and could be revised higher as technology improves. 

Industry players have provided even more optimistic assessments. Rick Bott, President and Chief Operating Officer of Continental Resources , told analysts in September, "What [the Bakken] looks like in terms of recovery factor and recoverable reserves was about 24 billion barrels of oil. But if you add the deeper benches and depending on what recovery factor you use, those deeper benches could move the amount of oil in play to 32 billion to 45 billion barrels of oil. So that's an exciting number to be going after." 

Foolish bottom line
Will the Bakken producers be able to meet these challenges? A year ago, pipeline constraints meant it wasn't clear if surging output could be shipped to market. Five years ago, it wasn't apparent if the Bakken would be viable at all. North Dakota operators are no strangers to adversity.

The shale revolution is far from over
Record oil and natural gas production is revolutionizing the United States' energy position. Finding the right plays while historic amounts of capital expenditures are flooding the industry will pad your investment nest egg. For this reason, the Motley Fool is offering a comprehensive look at three energy companies set to soar during this transformation in the energy industry. To find out which three companies are spreading their wings, check out the special free report, "3 Stocks for the American Energy Bonanza." Don't miss out on this timely opportunity; click here to access your report -- it's absolutely free. 

 

The article What Everyone Ought to Know About the Bakken originally appeared on Fool.com.

Robert Baillieul has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of EOG Resources. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Robert Baillieul has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of EOG Resources. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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This Oil Town Topples the Hedge Fund Ghetto

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Oil pump jack near Midland, Texas. Photo credit: Flickr/Paul Lowry

America's energy boom is reaching new heights. Its latest feat has it ascending past Wall Street according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This latest data shows that Midland, Texas, is now America's top-earning metro area.


The Texas town knocked Fairfield, Conn., off its long-held perch to take the title. Fairfield, which has held this title for 26 years, relies heavily on income derived by providing financial services. Midland, on the other hand, is in the heart of the Permian Basin and is seeing a revival thanks to America's new energy boom.

It has been a great few years for the 275,000 residents of the Midland metro area. Per capital income in the Midland metro area rose by $3,600 last year to an average of $83,049. The Bridgeport metro area, on the other hand, saw average income drop by $950 last year to a total of $81,068.

Midland has been on the rise for a while now. According to Forbes, it is ranked as the second best small city in America for jobs, which is up from fourth in 2011. The city saw 6.3% year-over-year growth in employment while its unemployment rate is the lowest in Texas as it's now less than 4%.

What's truly amazing is that the oil boom hitting Midland is only just beginning. Energy companies like Pioneer Natural Resources and Concho Resources  only recently switched from drilling vertical wells to drilling horizontally in this legacy oil basin. So, while the basin already produces 14% of America's oil, the pump is just starting to get primed.

Pioneer Natural Resources is one of the companies with the best position to profit from the Permian's future. The company has already drilled some Texas gushers, and it sees the potential to drill nearly 38,000 future wells on its acreage in the Permian Basin. Overall, it sees resource potential of nearly seven billion barrels of oil equivalent.

Another company to keep a close eye on is Concho Resources. It's a pure play in the Permian and it is just beginning to transition more of its operations to horizontal drilling. Because of this, Concho Resources recently announced an accelerated growth plan to double its production by 2016.

A final name to keep an eye on is EOG Resources . Not only is EOG Resources one of the best-positioned oil companies in America, it is simply printing money these days. But it has focused a lot of its recent attention on the Eagle Ford and Bakken. Going forward, it has a vast opportunity in the Permian Basin that is underappreciated by the market because the focus is on those two new shale plays. Over the long term, the Permian could be a big future opportunity for EOG Resources.

America's oil boom has turned Midland Texas into one of the most well-off cities in America. But the boom in Midland appears to be just getting started. That's great news for investors as it means that there is still time to invest in America's energy boom.

Learn more about investing in America's energy boom

Record oil and natural gas production is revolutionizing the United States' energy position. It's bringing economic prosperity to places like Midland, Texas. It can also help your portfolio to prosper. To get started, check our special free report, "3 Stocks for the American Energy Bonanza." Don't miss out on this timely opportunity; click here to access your report -- it's absolutely free. 


The article This Oil Town Topples the Hedge Fund Ghetto originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Matt DiLallo has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of EOG Resources. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Sarepta's Rocky 2013

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This year was a clash of positive clinical data and regulatory uncertainty for Sarepta Therapeutics .

Regulatory uncertainty won -- or, rather, became certain in a negative way.

SRPT Chart


SRPT data by YCharts

On the plus side
There's little doubt that Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug eteplirsen is working on the patients in the phase 2 trial.

If you weren't convinced in April, when the 74-week data was presented, or in June, when the 84-week data was revealed, the 96-week data in September should certainly be enough to convince you that the lack of a decline in distance patients can walk is real. That's nearly two years without a decline of less than 5% from baseline for those who were able to take the test; it's hard to argue that's a fluke.

Yet ...
Investors couldn't shake the idea that the data wouldn't be enough to persuade the Food and Drug Administration to issue an accelerated approval. The data from the phase 2 trial comes from just 10 patients, after all.

In April, the FDA said it wanted to see the data before advising the company on whether it should apply for accelerated approval. The rather unheard-of move seemed like a good sign; a green light to apply meant the FDA would probably approve the drug.

But the FDA backtracked a little in July, telling Sarepta that it should just apply and the agency would make a decision once it had the full data package. A pre-approval was off the table, but at least there was still the possibility of an accelerated approval.

Without much to go on and a final FDA decision about a year away, Sarepta's valuation was all over the place.

A November to remember
And then the FDA did a 180, telling Sarepta that an accelerated approval was off the table and the biotech needed to run a placebo-controlled phase 3 trial to get the drug approved. The stock dropped substantially as short-term investors jumped ship. A potential approval is now more than two years away, considering the time it'll take to agree with the FDA on a trial design, enrolling and running the trial, crunching the numbers, and for the FDA to review the application.

The agency seems to be spooked by the phase 3 failure of Prosensa  and GlaxoSmithKline  Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug drisapersen. It looks bad for the FDA to issue an accelerated approval and then have to pull the drug off the market because the drug doesn't work in a larger population or a side effect is discovered after it's used on more patients.

Of course, it'll look bad if the agency delayed an approval for nothing, denying patients the drug for years, but no one will lose a job over it. It's a culture that keeps the agency conservative.

Biotech investors would be wise to keep that in mind the next time there's regulatory uncertainty with a drug.

Our top pick for 2014
The market stormed out to huge gains across 2013, leaving investors on the sidelines burned. However, opportunistic investors can still find huge winners. The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has just hand-picked one such opportunity in our new report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2014." To find out which stock it is and read our in-depth report, simply click here. It's free!

The article Sarepta's Rocky 2013 originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Brian Orelli and The Motley Fool have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Investors Shouldn't Be Worried About This Recent Decline

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Rowan Companies has not had a good second half. The company's shares performed well during the first half of the year as the company reported better than expected earnings but since the beginning of July, the stock has underperformed the market with declines accelerating in the last month or so. However, I believe that investors should not be worried

Indeed, Rowan's future looks rosy as the company is set to take delivery of four new high-spec ultra-deepwater drillships during the next few years, which will catapult the company's earnings higher. Actually, this is one of those rare opportunities in investing where Rowan's earnings are almost certain to drive higher in the next few years, with very little risk of Rowan not meeting target.

Revenue locked in
In particular, three of Rowan's four new units are already contracted out for delivery, for a day rate of just over $600,000, until 2017. This gives investors a huge amount of clarity of where Rowan's earnings are going to head for the next few years.


All in all, when Rowan's four new units come online, they will add $2.4 million per day to Rowan's revenue, approximately $876 million per year. Rowan's revenue was just under $1.4 billion during 2012, so we can see how much of an effect this will have on earnings.

As I have already mentioned above, with three of these units already contracted out this revenue growth is almost guaranteed, according to the company's last reported fleet status report.

One of a kind
However, Rowan would appear to be one of the only mid-sized drillers that is looking at this kind of guaranteed revenue growth in the short to medium term. For example, the company's close peer, Atwood Oceanics has four ultra-deepwater drilling units under construction for delivery through 2015; but so far, only two of these units are already contracted out. What's more, the two units already 'on contract' are forecast to bring in less than $600,000 per day for the company.

Actually, although Atwood reports that the estimated day rate for these units will be between $580,000 and $595,000, a side note in the company's most recent fleet status report notes that upon delivery from the shipyard, both units will be mobilized in the Mediterranean at a day rate of $400,000 to $420,000, significantly below their projected day rates.

A cold wind
Meanwhile, Ocean Rig UDW has five units set for delivery through 2015, which will nearly double the company's current fleet. Unfortunately, only three of these five units is on a contract for longer than one year and one unit is yet to find a contractor.

Ocean Rig does not provide detailed day rates for its units, but what is of concern is the fact that Ocean rig is facing a contract expiration cliff between 2015 and the first half of 2016. During this period, approximately 80% of Ocean Rig's units are going to come 'off contract,' leaving only two units yet to be delivered contracted out beyond this date. Unfortunately, this leaves Ocean Rig looking venerable at a time. Transocean, one of the industry's largest participants, is reporting that a 'cold wind' is blowing across the sector as oil exploration and production companies postpone drilling programs in an attempt to force day rates on drilling units down.

Other opportunities in deepwater drilling
Imagine a company that rents a very specific and valuable piece of machinery for $41,000... per hour (that's almost as much as the average American makes in a year!). And Warren Buffett is so confident in this company's can't-live-without-it business model, he just loaded up on 8.8 million shares. An exclusive, brand-new Motley Fool report reveals the company we're calling OPEC's Worst Nightmare. Just click HERE to uncover the name of this industry-leading stock... and join Buffett in his quest for a veritable LANDSLIDE of profits!

 

The article Investors Shouldn't Be Worried About This Recent Decline originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Rupert Hargreaves has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Atwood Oceanics. The Motley Fool owns shares of Atwood Oceanics. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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5 Oil Stocks for 2014

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Photo credit: Flickr/Loco Steve.

Oil production in America is booming. We're producing more oil than we have in nearly two decades. That's fueling strong returns for oil producers, including several lesser-known oil companies that aren't yet on investors' radars. Here's a brief look at five oil stocks for 2014 that aren't yet household names that could be poised for a big year thanks to America's energy boom.


Big position in the Eagle Ford Shale
Penn Virginia expects to grow its oil production by as much as 85% in 2014. The company already had a strong showing in 2013 after it made a transformation acquisition to bolster its position in the Eagle Ford shale. Because of that deal, Penn Virginia now has 67,000 net acres and 890 future drilling locations in the Eagle Ford, with a plan to grow those to 100,000 net acres and 1,000 drilling locations in the future. That oil rich position has Penn Virginia set to have another strong showing in 2014.

Profiting off the Permian
The Permian Basin has been around since the 1920s. However, new areas of the legacy oil field are being unlocked thanks to horizontal drilling. That has oil stocks such as Pioneer Natural Resources and Concho Resources poised for great things in 2014 and beyond.

Pioneer Natural Resources holds about 900,000 acres in the Spraberry/Wolfcamp areas of the Permian Basin. The company recently drilled some really great wells, which bodes well for its opportunities in the years ahead. Overall, Pioneer Natural Resources believes it's sitting on more than 7 billion barrels of recoverable oil and gas in its Permian Basin acreage. That's an unbelievable oil position and one reason investors need to keep an eye on Pioneer Natural Resources in 2014. 

Concho Resources is another solid oil stock for 2014. Like Pioneer, it has a vast oil-rich position in the Permian Basin. As a result, Concho recently decided to accelerate its drilling program, which will now see the company doubling its oil production by 2016. That accelerated growth should fuel solid returns for Concho Resource investors over the next few years.

Emerging oil stocks
The last two oil stocks are two emerging names that could have big years in 2014. Both Abraxas Petroleum and Carrizo Oil & Gas have interesting positions in some of America's emerging oil and gas basins.

Abraxas Petroleum has acreage in developing plays such as the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian Basin, as well as emerging basins such as the Powder River Basin and the Duvernay in Canada. The company is focusing all of its capital to drill for oil and liquids, which has resulted in a 57% jump in its liquids production since 2011. Recent non-core asset sales have enabled Abraxas Petroleum to bolster its drilling program. As a result, 2014 could be the year that Abraxas Petroleum emerges as an appealing growth stock for oil investors.

It's a similar story for Carrizo Oil & Gas. The company has positions in the Marcellus, Utica, Eagle Ford, and Niobrara. Its focus on developing its oily plays has it on pace to deliver 47% oil production growth in 2013. Its 2014 plan has Carrizo continuing to focus a lot of attention on drilling in the oil-rich Eagle Ford, as well as drilling the liquids-rich Utica Shale and the oily Niobrara. Put it all together, and Carrizo Oil & Gas is well positioned for a successful 2014. 

Investor takeaway
America's oil boom is creating a major opportunity for smaller oil companies like these five to achieve really stunning growth. That sent all five of these oil stocks soaring higher in 2013, with more gains possible in 2014.

Three more great stocks from America's oil boom
Record oil and natural gas production is revolutionizing the United States' energy position. It's also fueling profits into the portfolio of investors. If its not yet fueling your portfolio, check our special free report, "3 Stocks for the American Energy Bonanza." Don't miss out on this timely opportunity; click here to access your report -- it's absolutely free. 

The article 5 Oil Stocks for 2014 originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Matt DiLallo and The Motley Fool have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Why Natural Gas Could Save Coal

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Natural gas is an increasingly abundant resource in the United States. It's so cheap that it's being integrated into the transportation sector, which sets the stage for lower fuel costs. That, in turn, could lead to cost savings for transporting coal by rail -- which would make coal used for power cheaper. 

Gas is great!
Natural gas is a wonderful fuel because it burns more cleanly than coal. However, the usefulness of a fuel is a combination of cost, environment, and energy. In the United States, natural gas is cheap and abundant because of shale drilling. That's led a host of industries to convert to using gas.

For example, Waste Management has more than 2,200 natural gas powered vehicles and recently opened its 50th natural gas fueling station. Every natural-gas truck it buys means it avoids buying 8,000 gallons of diesel. No wonder the trash-hauling industry has made such a concerted shift toward natural gas, increasing such truck purchases from less than 10% of annual acquisitions to more than 60% in just five years.


Long-haul trucks are on the verge of following Waste Management and other trash haulers down a similar path. There's the potential to increase natural gas truck purchases from less than 1% of new purchases to more than one-third in the next five years.

United Parcel Service , for example, has made a commitment to purchase 1,000 long-haul trucks powered by liquefied natural gas. That will add to its already impressive total of more than 2,700 natural gas vehicles (most of which are not long-haul trucks).

How big a deal is this switch to LNG? United Parcel Service says that it can reduce fuel costs by 30% to 40% based on recent natural gas prices. No wonder Waste Management has been buying so many natural gas vehicles. And now that long-haul LNG trucks are increasingly available, including financing supported by a Clean Energy Fuels and General Electric partnership, it seems likely that the trucking industry is ready to start the shift, too.

But what about coal?
That's where trains come into play. GE is also working with CSX to test new gear that will allow a train to run on either natural gas or diesel. Assuming train companies pay about the same amount for fuel as truckers, that could lead to cost savings of up to 40% a year on fuel. Trains have run largely on diesel for around 50 years, so this switch is historic. And it sets up an interesting situation for coal.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, trains transport about 70% of the coal electric utilities use, and transportation makes up about 40% of the end-cost of using coal. This makes rail costs a big part of the equation in the choice between coal or natural gas. Between 2000 and 2010, the cost to ship coal increased 50%. Companies like CSX didn't have much choice but to raise prices, however, because its costs were heading higher.

Source: EIA 

Assuming CSX and GE can make the switch to natural gas work, fuel-cost savings would likely be passed onto customers. At the same time, demand for natural gas will be increasing in the trucking (UPS) and train spaces, with an abundance of GE's help, which supports natural gas prices. Thus, the cost-benefit analysis might just start to favor coal in a more meaningful way.

Not unique
Don't dismiss this scenario. The cost of natural gas in Germany has led gas-fueled power plants to operate at a loss. With cheap and abundant coal, U.S. utilities won't need much of a push to shift their mix back in favor of the fuel.

Watch UPS to see if it can follow the lead of Waste Management, which will provide further evidence that GE and CSX can pull off a similar train switch. If the dominoes fall right, the next five years could be good to coal.

The U.S. energy revolution is just getting started
Record oil and natural gas production is revolutionizing the United States' energy position. Finding the right plays while historic amounts of capital expenditures are flooding the industry will pad your investment nest egg. For this reason, the Motley Fool is offering a comprehensive look at three energy companies set to soar during this transformation in the energy industry. To find out which three companies are spreading their wings, check out the special free report, "3 Stocks for the American Energy Bonanza." Don't miss out on this timely opportunity; click here to access your report -- it's absolutely free. 

The article Why Natural Gas Could Save Coal originally appeared on Fool.com.

Reuben Brewer has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Clean Energy Fuels and United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool owns shares of CSX and General Electric Company. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Is Now the Time to Be Cuckoo for Yahoo!?

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In one of the latest moves in Yahoo!'s ongoing corporate makeover, the Internet portal has announced plans to increase its share buyback program to $5 billion. The search engine has seen a steady increase in returns since CEO Marissa Mayer took the helm in July 2012; it recently reached a new 52-week high, perhaps thanks to its stake in one of the most hotly anticipated IPOs of the year: Alibaba.

There may be a lot of positive hype surrounding Yahoo! lately, but buzz does not necessarily a solid stock make. Is Yahoo! putting its money where its mouth is, or is this company merely flying further than expected on overblown market predictions?

The timing of the buyback
Generally, a company could be buying back large amounts of its own stock either in an attempt to make outstanding shares more valuable to current investors or, as Motley Fool CEO Tom Gardner explained in a recent interview, to simply balance out its stock options. The latter tends to be a less favorable option, suggesting the company is paying less attention to its current market value and focusing more on keeping its head above water.


In Yahoo!'s case, this stock buyback may come at a moment when its shares are at a reasonable price and likely to climb higher. A little more than a year into her CEO tenure, Mayer has already transformed Yahoo! from a fading relic of Web 1.0 into a promising content portal.

She's by no means out of the woods just yet. Much of her first year on the job was spent snatching up new talent and injecting life into Yahoo!'s corporate culture, at the expense of its operating margins. Mayer's next act is to use these new assets to create content that leads to monetization. If the hotly anticipated Alibaba IPO fares well, its success could provide an additional buffer into phase 2 of Mayer's plan for Web domination.

The state of Alibaba
So what exactly is going on with Alibaba anyway? The company is being hailed as China's answer to Amazon.com, but it actually consists of 25 different types of e-commerce marketplaces. As of Alibaba's March 2013 year-to-date findings, two of these platforms, Taobao (a consumer-to-consumer marketplace) and its business-to-consumer complement Tmall, saw gross merchandise volume of 1 trillion yuan, or $165 billion.

Yahoo! holds a huge stake in Alibaba, and that has not gone unnoticed by the search engine's shareholders. As of October, Yahoo! owns 523.6 million shares in the Chinese mecca of online marketplaces, and if Alibaba's IPO (rumored to be slated for some time in early 2014) is successful, that stake could grow in value -- and fast. The potential here is huge, and Yahoo!'s got a front-row seat for the action.

Promising or premature?
There's a long road ahead for Yahoo!, as the company tries to put its new investments and acquisitions to work into something profitable. However, it's smart for the company to have something for shareholders in the meantime -- a buyback will help make Yahoo! stock more valuable if and when its success as a Web portal starts to take off, and its hold on Alibaba offers plenty of leverage while it figures out exactly how to do just that. All may be quiet on the Yahoo! front for now, but something big could happen soon, and any investor who wants early entry to the action has an opportunity to snatch it up right now.

Interested in the next tech revolution?
Then you'll need to learn about the radical technology shift some say forced the mighty Bill Gates into a premature retirement. Meanwhile, early in-the-know investors are already getting filthy rich off of it... by quietly investing in the three companies that control its fortune-making future. You've likely heard of one of them, but you've probably never heard of the other two... to find out what they are, click here to watch this shocking video presentation!

The article Is Now the Time to Be Cuckoo for Yahoo!? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Caroline Bennett has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Yahoo!. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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5 Stocks That Bounced Back in 2013

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It was one of my gutsier calls late last year. I took a look at some of the biggest losers of 2012 -- stocks that were down by as little as 24% and as much as 81% year to date -- and predicted that they would bounce back

I didn't expect to be right on all of them -- there's a reason why these investments had fallen out of favor. However, I felt there were enough catalysts in place to provide at least a modest bounce in 2013. The five market calls turned out better than I could have imagined, soaring between 69% and 195% in 2013.

There are still a handful of trading days left in 2013, but I may as well punch out now, as I plan to be back later this week with five stocks that should bounce back in 2014.


Let's line these picks up.

 CompanyShare Price Dec. 31, 2012Share Price Dec. 9, 2013Gain
The Active Network $4.91 $14.50* 195%
Groupon $4.86 $9.62 98%
Hewlett-Packard $14.25 $27.25 91%
Baidu $100.29 $171.90 71%
Zynga $2.36 $3.99 69%

Source: Yahoo! Finance. *Active Network acquired on Nov. 15, 2013.

It's a pretty remarkable showing. The average stock gain of 105% easily trounces the S&P 500's 27% return in that time. Even the worst of the performers -- Zynga's 69% pop -- is more than double the gain of the general market. 

The Active Network was the big winner, nearly tripling after the leader in endurance event registrations agreed to be acquired at $14.50 a share. The company behind Active.com was in the right place at the right time as the country flocked to marathons and 5K runs as social and lifestyle fitness events. Active Network just struggled with profitability, and that may be easier to overcome now that it's not under pressure to deliver on a quarterly basis.

Groupon has nearly doubled. The daily-deals model was exposed as flimsy last year. Merchants weren't sold on the repeat business they were hoping to achieve by selling introductory deals for a quarter on the dollar, and flash-sale shoppers tired of impulsively snapping up Groupon deals that they wouldn't go on to use. Groupon's model began to evolve for the better late last year. It started to move into physical goods, and it began to milk its growing Rolodex of small merchant connections to offer other business services including credit card processing. The plan is working. Groupon has turned a profit every quarter this year, and analysts see revenue growth accelerating from 8% this year to 14% come 2014.

Hewlett-Packard was another big winner in 2013. It's still far from perfect. Folks aren't buying PCs, and HP isn't much of a factor in smartphones and tablets the way it is in desktops and laptops. However, HP remains the world's largest seller of PCs, and that's still a very lucrative business that the tech bellwether has used to diversify into higher-margin business services. The end result is that analysts see HP's bottom line growing from $3.56 a share last year to $3.67 a share this year. We're not talking blazing speed here, but clearly this wasn't a stock that should have started off the year trading at just four times earnings.

Baidu has gone from zero to hero this year. China's leading search engine began the year with uncertainties as a smaller rival began gaining ground with a rival search platform that it introduced in the summer of 2012. Baidu actually slumped through the first part of 2013, bottoming out in April. It went on to hit all-time highs after making some savvy acquisitions that made it a leading player in streaming video and mobile apps. Baidu's latest quarter was a blowout, with revenue climbing 42% and the revitalized dot-com darling expecting growth for the current quarter to accelerate. 

Finally, we have Zynga. It's the relative laggard with its 69% year-to-date pop, and it's also the one whose fundamentals haven't really improved this year. Zynga's leadership in mobile games has suffered as finicky players move on from its once-hot diversions. Bookings are down. Profitability continues to be elusive. However, Zynga began the year worth less than the cash on its balance sheet. That was crazy. Zynga also brought in a seasoned video game vet to come in as CEO, giving investors hope that a new strategy will help the cash-rich company get back on track.

All in all, it turned out to be a pretty solid list of comeback candidates. Given the market's rally in 2013 it will be harder to sift through this year's losers to find stocks that will bounce back, but I'm going to give it a shot later this week.

Let's go for a big winner in 2014
There's a huge difference between a good stock, and a stock that can make you rich. The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for 2014, and it's one of those stocks that could make you rich. You can find out which stock it is in the special free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2014." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

The article 5 Stocks That Bounced Back in 2013 originally appeared on Fool.com.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Baidu. The Motley Fool owns shares of Baidu. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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