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Why Forest Laboratories Inc. Shares Soared

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Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Forest Laboratories , a branded drug developer operating in the U.S. and Europe, galloped higher by as much as 17% after announcing the acquisition of privately held Aptalis for $2.9 billion in cash from TPG Capital.

So what: Normally, you don't see an acquiring company soar like this, but the cost savings and profit outlook given by Forest have investors excited. Aptalis, which is a gastrointestinal disorder and cystic fibrosis drug developer, will add $700 million in revenue by 2015, reduce synergistic costs by as much as $125 million in 2016, and should add an adjusted (non-GAAP) $0.78 to EPS by 2015. Forest will fund the transaction with $1 billion in cash on hand as well as $1.9 billion in debt. Pending regulatory approval, the deal will close in the first-half of this year.


Now what: Finally, something that Forest Labs shareholders can be excited about! The deal couldn't come at a better time because Forest Labs' best-selling drug, Alzheimer's disease treatment Namenda, is going to lose patent protection in 2015. But the revenue from this transaction, and EPS for that matter, should more than cancel out the loss of Namenda, even allowing Forest to potentially pay down some of its debt between the closing of this transaction and Namenda's patent exclusivity loss in 2015. Following Forest's more than doubling in share price I can't say I'm a personal fan of the company, but it no longer belongs on any of my "most perilous pipeline" lists.

Will this top stock run circles around Forest Labs in 2014?
There's a huge difference between a good stock, and a stock that can make you rich. The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for 2014, and it's one of those stocks that could make you rich. You can find out which stock it is in the special free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2014." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

The article Why Forest Laboratories Inc. Shares Soared originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Sean Williams has no material interest in any companies mentioned in this article. You can follow him on CAPS under the screen name TMFUltraLong, track every pick he makes under the screen name TrackUltraLong, and check him out on Twitter, where he goes by the handle @TMFUltraLong. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe thatconsidering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has adisclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Baidu in 2014: Can It Keep Rolling?

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Baidu had a redemptive 2013. Now it's time to see if it can muster a repeat performance in 2014.

China's leading search engine raced back into investor fancy last year. Game-changing acquisitions and accelerating growth projections work wonders on discarded former market darlings. The stock soared 77% last year, and that's pretty remarkable since it was trading lower for 2013 at its midpoint. However, now that Baidu is armed with new toys that will increase its presence in mobile and online video, it will be interesting to see if it can live up to heightened expectations.

Analysts see revenue and earnings growing 37% and 31%, respectively, this year. Global leader Google is only projected to grow its top line by 16% this year, but that's what makes Baidu so magnetic. Google toils away in developed global markets that are growing slowly while Baidu is focusing on the world's most populous nation: China. China offers the one-two punch of a fast-growing economy and a country that's still somewhat early in the online migration cycle. 


Google used to be Baidu's biggest threat, but these days the company that Baidu sees in the distance when it peeks at its rearview mirror is Qihoo 360 . Qihoo 360 also had a great 2013 -- up 176% -- and it's growing faster than Baidu as it begins monetizing the search platform that it rolled out two summers ago.

Investors used to think that Qihoo 360's early success in search would slow Baidu, but a little healthy competition has actually helped. Advertisers still can't abandon Baidu as a marketing platform since it draws the lion's share of search queries. However, the story that will play itself out for Baidu in 2014 isn't just a matter of the four quarterly reports that we'll be getting. The market wants to see how Baidu can piece together the acquisitions that make it a major player outside of search.

Investors got a taste of that when Qunar -- a fast-growing online travel portal -- went public late last year. Baidu has a controlling interest in Qunar, and it remains to be seen if Baidu takes some of its other appendages public this year. Along the way, the critics who argued that Baidu lacked a presence in mobile were silenced last summer when it snapped up the leading app marketplace provider. If that wasn't enough, Qunar's press release last week -- boasting about booking 60,000 air tickets via mobile in a single day -- find few investors questioning if Baidu is too tethered to desktop search.

It should be a solid year of fiscal growth for Baidu, but once again it will likely be its ability to stand out as a dot-com darling with visions beyond 2014 that ultimately drives the stock higher. Since going public in the summer of 2005, Baidu has only lost ground in 2008 and 2012. The odds are in its favor for another healthy year of gains and growth.

Find a dot-com darling closer to home
The one sure way to get wealthy is to invest in a groundbreaking company that goes on to dominate a multibillion-dollar industry. Our analysts have done it before with the likes of Amazon and Netflix. And now they think they've done it again with three stock picks that they believe could generate the same type of phenomenal returns. They've revealed these picks in a new free report that you can download instantly by clicking here now.

The article Baidu in 2014: Can It Keep Rolling? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Baidu and Google. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Wave of Violence Threatens Ambitious Iraqi Oil Goals

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This article was written by Oilprice.com -- the leading provider of energy news in the world

A wave of violence has swept parts of Iraq in 2014 as the central government fights back against Al-Qaeda aligned militants in Anbar Province. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) reportedly took control of Ramadi and Fallujah, bombing police headquarters and killing dozens. On New Year's Day, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki sent in reinforcements to take back control of Anbar Province's two largest cities. The clashes kick off 2014 in much the same way as 2013 ended: a return to violence in a country that had seen important security gains in recent years.

More than 7,800 civilians were killed in Iraq in 2013, the bloodiest year over the past five. The latest violence occurred in Anbar Province, a region that dogged the U.S. military during its decade-long war. ISIL is also engaged in fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and the latest string of events indicates that the violence of the Syrian civil war is spreading deeper into Iraq.


The conflict has yet to affect Iraq's oil fields, and production hit 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, the most since August 2013, according to Bloomberg. To be sure, the violence does not pose an immediate threat to Iraq's oil output, as three-fourths of the country's production comes from the South, and much of the rest from Kurdistan in the North. In fact, according to the EIA, a majority of Iraq's oil production comes from three fields: Kirkuk, and the North and South Rumaila fields near Basra. The latest violence is not located near these areas.

Still, the instability and the loss of control of key cities by the Iraqi government underscores the intense security challenge facing the country as it seeks to ramp up oil production in the coming years. Iraq has a stated goal of tripling oil production to 9 million bpd by 2020. In a 2012 special report on Iraq, the IEA estimates a slightly less rosy figure of 6.1 million bpd by the end of the decade in its central scenario.

With the immense challenges facing Iraq's oil sector, even doubling today's output over the next six years looks rather ambitious. Iraq still has not agreed on a hydrocarbons law that would outline oil governance. Kurdistan is making brazen moves aimed at increasing its independence from the central government in Baghdad. This may help to boost Kurdish oil production, but political conflict between the semi-autonomous region and the Maliki government casts a shadow of uncertainty over the country's oil industry. Most importantly, however, is the violence that threatens the stability of Iraq, which is now the second largest OPEC producer after Saudi Arabia.

While Iraq's failure to meet its ambitious oil production goals may seem to be a problem solely for Iraq, oil consumers around the world may be more dependent than they realize on the oil fields of Rumaila and Kirkuk. Over the next 20 years, according to the IEA's latest World Energy Outlook, Iraq will account for the largest source of additional oil production to global markets. Yet its failure to live up to those hopeful projections -- and given the latest reports of violence, that seems entirely plausible -- will send prices much higher than the 2035 price of $128 per barrel that the IEA predicts, as supply does not keep pace with demand.

The end of OPEC? 
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Recent article from Oilprice.com: Brazil's Energy Sector Faces Considerable Challenges Going Forward

Lukoil Deal Makes Bulgaria Largest Eastern Europe Refiner

The article Wave of Violence Threatens Ambitious Iraqi Oil Goals originally appeared on Fool.com.

Written by Nick Cunningham at Oilprice.com

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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What's Wrong With Microsoft Corporation Stock Today?

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is having another red day, trading down 0.4% in early action. One of the august index's biggest losers is Microsoft , thanks to bad news about the search for a new CEO. Ford leader Alan Mulally most certainly won't take the Microsoft job, removing one of the best potential candidates from Microsoft investors' wish lists.

"I would like to end the Microsoft speculation because I have no other plans to do anything other than serve Ford," Mulally told AP in an interview. "You don't have to worry about me leaving [Ford]."


So there you have it. Perhaps the best turnaround specialist on the market turns out not to be on the market at all. Ford investors love to see that their proven winner will stay at the car company's wheel, while Redmond's shareholders despair. Microsoft shares plunged as much as 1.8% overnight while Ford shares surged as much as 2.1% higher on a generally gloomy trading day.

All bets are off, because there's really no telling who will take Steve Ballmer's job at Microsoft anymore.

The board of directors may have to elevate an insider like COO Kevin Turner or hardware chief Julie Larson-Green, but then they'd run the risk of simply reinforcing the status quo and dooming Microsoft to another few years under the unfocused strategy of recent years.

Is Bill Ruh the next Microsoft CEO? Crazier things have happened. Image source: GE.

I would prefer to see an outsider swoop in to claim the Microsoft throne, followed by a wholesale rebuilding of the board that selected him or her. General Electric is a well-known talent farm for future CEOs, and the company is getting deeper into next-generation computing than its investors have noticed -- why not grab GE's global software head Bill Ruh before he becomes way too important for GE to lose?

If Ruh isn't the final choice here, I sincerely hope that Microsoft is at least looking at fresh-thinking candidates in his mold. This would be a terrible time to rest on Microsoft's admittedly cushy laurels, but a great time to apply the software giant's massive resources to entirely new ideas. Pick another protector of the old ways, and Microsoft stock is dead money for the foreseeable future.

Is this the next Microsoft-style growth stock?
There's a huge difference between a good stock, and a stock that can make you rich. Microsoft has created more than its fair share of millionaire shareholders, but the tech giant is struggling to keep the good times rolling. So maybe it's time to look elsewhere. The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for 2014, and it's one of those stocks that could make you rich. You can find out which stock it is in the special free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2014." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

The article What's Wrong With Microsoft Corporation Stock Today? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Anders Bylund has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Ford. It also owns shares of General Electric and Microsoft. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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FOMC Minutes: Yellen Fed Equals Bernanke Fed

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Paying TaxesThe Federal Reserve is out with its minutes from the December FOMC meeting. We generally warn readers that minutes are often the third look at a Fed meeting, but this pertains to the FOMC meeting where Fed tapering of the $85 billion in monthly bond buying was announced.

Another boost to the importance of these minutes came from the notion that Friday's unemployment reading could have more input on that bond tapering.

There was a support for the tapering at this meeting. Some Fed presidents and governors wanted even more than the $10 billion that was announced, while others wanted a cautious approach. In fact, some seem to have wanted the bond buying to end rather quickly.

Most Fed members believed that jobs would continue improving. There were discussions about guidance, including some wanting to lower the threshold of 6.5% unemployment down to 6% as far as being highly accommodative.

While there has been a healthy discussion around the pace of bond buying, there is no smoking gun here that we could see which signals whether Janet Yellen's Fed will be much different from Ben Bernanke's Fed.

The key takeaways we saw were as follows:

"The Committee also reiterated that it will continue its asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. In the view of one member, a reduction in the pace of purchases was premature and, before taking such a step, the Committee should wait for more convincing evidence that economic growth was rising faster than its potential and that inflation would return to the Committee's 2 percent objective... In their discussion of forward guidance about the target federal funds rate, a few members suggested that lowering the unemployment threshold to 6 percent could effectively convey the Committee's intention to keep the target federal funds rate low for an extended period. However, most members wanted to make no change to the threshold..."

FULL MINUTES ARE HERE


Filed under: Economy

 

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Fed Reduced Bond Buys After Seeing Big Job Gains

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Fed minutes
William Thomas Cain/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesOutgoing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER

WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve agreed last month to modestly reduce its bond purchases by $10 billion a month after seeing stronger job gains and other signs of an improving economy.

But minutes of the December 18-19 meeting released Wednesday showed that some participants worried that financial markets might misread the move as a step toward raising its key short-term interest rate.

The bond purchases are intended to keep long-term rates low, and encourage more borrowing and spending.

In response, the Fed said it would keep its short-term rate low "well past" the time the unemployment rate dropped below 6.5 percent, as long as inflation stayed low.

Some members wanted to lower the unemployment threshold to 6 percent.
But the majority favored looking at a range of measures of the job market -- and not just the unemployment rate -- in making a policy change.

The economy has added an average of 200,000 jobs a month from August through November. The unemployment rate fell to a five-year low of 7 percent.

Many Fed members called the recent job gains "meaningful," according to the minutes. And some felt that the gains were likely to continue and meet the Fed's expectations for a stronger economy in 2014.

The government will release the December employment report Friday.

A private report Wednesday raised expectations for Friday's report. Payroll provider ADP said businesses added 238,000 jobs in December, up slightly from 229,000 in the previous month.

Last month the Fed announced that it would reduce its monthly bond purchases from $85 billion back to $75 billion starting in January. And it said it expected to further reduce the bond purchases in "measured steps" at upcoming meetings, if the economy and the job market continue improving.

Many economists believe the Fed could reduce the bond purchases by an additional $10 billion at each of the Fed's upcoming meetings, if the economy continues to add a healthy number of jobs. At that pace, the Fed would end its program of new purchases by the end of the year.

Some analysts also believe the Fed could go further in strengthening its forward guidance about short-term rates at future meetings now that Janet Yellen has been confirmed as the incoming chairman to succeed Ben Bernanke.

Bernanke will preside at his last meeting on Jan. 28-29. Yellen is expected to take over on Feb. 1. Yellen was a strong supporter of Bernanke's aggressive efforts to revive the economy following the Great Recession and because of that analysts are not looking for any major changes in the direction of policy when Yellen takes over.

Fed interest rate policies are made by the Federal Open Market Committee, which is composed of seven Washington board members and five of the 12 regional bank presidents. The New York Fed president always has a vote on the policy panel and the other four votes rotate annually among the other 11 Fed presidents.

President Barack Obama has the chance to fill four vacancies on the Fed board. Beyond his choice of Yellen to replace Bernanke, Obama has not announced his picks for the other openings. Stanley Fischer, a former economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who served until last June as head of the Bank of Israel, has been mentioned as a choice for vice chairman. Lael Brainard, formerly Treasury's top international official, could be tapped for one of the other openings.

 

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$770 Million Delta Air Lines Upgrades Will Change Seats, Overhead Bins

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Today, Delta Air Lines announced it would be spending $770 million through 2016 to update and upgrade the interiors of its Boeing 757 and 737 aircraft, and its Airbus A319 and A320 aircraft, in an effort to improve the comfort of its passengers. Changes include more overhead bin space for carry-on luggage and new "slim-line" seats, which some people have criticized as contributing to a less comfortable flight.

The airline said that the improvements to 225 domestic narrow-body aircraft will benefit the customers in both the first and economy class cabins. As a part of the investment, Delta will give power at every seat, add new "slim-line" seats that include adjustable headrests, improve and update lavatories, while also adding more efficient and space-saving galleys. In addition, after the modifications are complete, Delta's entire 73-plane fleet of 737-800 aircraft will have in-seat video, and access to satellite television.

Delta will update its 57 A319 and 69 A320 planes, which will include upgrades for more carry-on baggage capacity (which is also true of the 757-200 models). In addition, every A319 and A320 model will feature a widening of its seats from 17.2 to 18.0 inches.


Delta says new overhead bins will increase carry-on baggage space by 50% to 60%.

Some questions have arisen surrounding slim-line seats, which generally are less bulky and weigh up to 30% less than traditional seats. This allows airlines to add more seats onto the planes, while also saving on fuel costs. This benefits the airlines due to both increased revenues and lower costs; however, some passengers have called into question the more crowded nature of the planes. 

The announcement today follows more than $3 billion of investments that Delta has made since 2010 in an effort to improve both the experience of its customers on the planes, as well as in the terminals. This includes a $100 million investment and renovation at New York's LaGuardia airport, as well as the improvements seen at 50 Delta Sky Clubs.

"We're continuing to make smart long-term investments in our products and services to meet the expectations of our customers," said Delta Chief Revenue Officer and Executive Vice President Glen Hauenstein in a statement. "In just six years, we will have made updates to interiors throughout Delta's fleet giving customers improved comfort and more options to work or relax and be entertained."

The article $770 Million Delta Air Lines Upgrades Will Change Seats, Overhead Bins originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Patrick Morris has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Mulally's Rejection Sparks Microsoft's Fall as the Dow Dives

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Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over daily movements, we do like to keep an eye on market changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

The markets are slipping sharply today across the board, with a few gainers helping to keep the Dow Jones Industrial Average from falling deeply into the red. As of 2:30 p.m. EST, the Dow's dropped more than 70 points, with all but a handful of blue-chip member stocks down for the day. Microsoft's leading the pack lower, shedding about 2%, but Boeing has continued its run from last year by gaining about 0.4% today. Let's catch up on what you need to know.

Microsoft's CEO hunt goes on
Microsoft's CEO dilemma goes on, but one thing seems clear: The long-projected front-runner to replace Steve Ballmer won't be taking the job. Ford CEO Alan Mulally announced yesterday that he would stay at his current job through 2014, sending Ford's stock higher while taking down Microsoft shares. It's an understandable disappointment for Microsoft investors: Mulally's done a great job at keeping sales soaring at Ford, with the company in particular posting a 49% sales jump in China in 2013. That's a lost opportunity for Microsoft, but the ongoing uncertainty around Microsoft's leadership is one big trouble hanging over the company's head this year.


Microsoft now doesn't expect to finalize its replacement for Ballmer until at least next month, although the company has said it is close to naming a successor. With Microsoft making new strides in the consumer tech market while looking to maintain its dominance in software, it's pivotal that the company find its next leader soon -- shares have fallen roughly 6% in the past month over the wait.

Boeing hasn't had any trouble with its stock price lately, as 2013's Dow leader continues its ascent today. Boeing's agreement with its largest union for a new eight-year contract has settled investors' nerves and secured labor peace for the near future, an anchor of stability that couldn't come at a better time. Boeing's pushing ahead into the civilian airliner market with such strength that it can't afford a hiccup with labor.

A report yesterday indicates that Boeing's not slowing down at gobbling up new orders, either, as the aerospace giant reportedly inked a $4 billion deal with India's SpiceJet for up to 42 737 MAX aircraft. The 737's long been Boeing's civil aircraft mainstay, and with the company expecting around 70% of new aircraft deliveries between 2012 and 2032 to be single-body craft, expect similar deals in this company's future.

That's music to the ears of Boeing investors. Operating margin has picked up lately at Boeing's commercial aerospace division, gaining more than 2 percentage points in the most recent quarter to rise to 11.6%. Sales are on a roll, with commercial revenue growth far outpacing the sluggishness seen in Boeing's defense division, and the aircraft backlog hasn't seen any remote sign of turbulence over the past year. It's clear skies ahead for Boeing despite last year's run-up: In the long run, this stock has plenty of room to soar.

The one stock you can't ignore this year
Boeing's become an incredible stock lately, but is it your best bet in 2014? The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for 2014, and it's one of those stocks that could make you rich. You can find out which stock it is in the special free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2014." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

The article Mulally's Rejection Sparks Microsoft's Fall as the Dow Dives originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Dan Carroll has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Ford. The Motley Fool owns shares of Ford and Microsoft. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Is Keystone XL's Approval Coming After Train Explosions?

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Is Bakken crude oil more explosive than other types of crude? This question is being explored by the U.S. Department of Transportation's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration after BNSF's recent train derailment and explosion outside of Fargo, N.D. Light sweet crude from the Bakken Shale was involved in three terrific explosions in 2013, leading authorities to test the flammability of the oil. 

While more scrutiny and negative public opinion are cast upon crude-by-rail transportation, TransCanada and other crude producers are hoping more pipeline capacity is approved to move the crude. The most contentious project is currently the northern portion of the Keystone XL pipeline, which is still being reviewed by President Obama. While crude-by-oil accidents are rare, the magnitude of the rare explosions might open the door for more pipeline operators in both the United States and Canada.

Don't miss out on this winner
There's a huge difference between a good stock, and a stock that can make you rich. The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for 2014, and it's one of those stocks that could make you rich. You can find out which stock it is in the special free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2014." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.


This segment is from Tuesday's edition of "Digging for Value," in which sector analysts Joel South and Taylor Muckerman discuss energy and materials news with host Alison Southwick. The twice-weekly show can be viewed on Tuesdays and Thursdays. It can also be found on Twitter, along with our extended coverage of the energy and materials sectors @TMFEnergy.

 

The article Is Keystone XL's Approval Coming After Train Explosions? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Joel South and Taylor Muckerman have no position in any stocks mentioned, and neither does The Motley Fool. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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BlackBerry Returns to Its Roots With This Recent Move

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New CEO John Chen has big plans for struggling Canadian smartphone maker BlackBerry . They just don't involve anything new.

In a move that some might find surprising but seems perfectly sensible, Chen recently gave word that BlackBerry's future, if there is indeed to be one, will be rooted firmly in its past -- the keyboard.

Source: BlackBerry.


Back to the basics at BlackBerry
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Chen, who took over as CEO last November, said he sees BlackBerry's future smartphones as "predominantly" keyboard based. 

Chen's decision signals a major reversal from the previous regime, in which then-CEO Thorsen Heins launched several touchscreen handsets in hopes of stemming the mass defection toward other high-end smartphones such as Apple's iPhone Samsung's Galaxy S4.

So far the results have been disastrous at best. Since the second quarter of 2010, BlackBerry's share of the global smartphone market has plummeted from 18% to less than 1% in the third quarter of 2013 according to IDC. During the same period, the global smartphone market has grown by more than 300%. The reasons for BlackBerry's fall from grace have been well documented at this point. Plagued by corporate infighting and a failure to execute, BlackBerry quickly faded from relevance against Apple and Google in the very smartphone market it helped create.

Chen has already made several shrewd moves to help keep BlackBerry afloat since his appointment, and refocusing on keyboards, where the company still has its fair share of loyalists, is clearly another one. However, what's still hugely unclear is just how positive an impact the renewed concentration on keyboards could have on BlackBerry's bleeding bottom line.

Righting the ship
Although BlackBerry's most recent earnings report was about as ugly as they come, Chen also used the report to introduce several key moves. He overhauled BlackBerry's organizational structure centered around four key areas -- enterprise services, messaging, QNX embedded business and devices. Of equal, if not greater, importance, Chen also announced BlackBerry would begin a five-year strategic partnership with hardware assembly giant Foxconn to handle production of its devices. The Foxconn deal alone helps to greatly reduce the massive inventory risks that have plagued BlackBerry over the last several years.

Source: Wells Fargo.

The market cheered the news, sending BlackBerry's stock up significantly in reaction to the news. This news, as well as other moves Chen has made since his hiring, has helped paint a picture of a more stable BlackBerry.

But is BlackBerry a buy?
It's without dispute that Chen has done wonders to help stabilize BlackBerry, both operationally and psychologically. BlackBerry stock is up 30% since Chen's arrival, although it still remains firmly in the red over more extended time horizons.

With its current market capitalization currently north of $8 billion, it's still somewhat hard to see how BlackBerry presents an attractive value given its business struggles. Analysts are currently projecting BlackBerry to lose money in each of the next nine fiscal quarters, which is as far out as I can find estimates. And it has plenty of cash on its balance sheet and investors who have shown a willingness to double down to save it.

Looking at valuation more closely, BlackBerry currently holds more than $2 billion in net cash on its balance sheet. Assigning another $2 billion in value to its massive patent portfolio values BlackBerry's operations at roughly $4 billion at least as far as back-of-the-envelope figures are concerned.

At that price, I'm not sure I'd be a buyer, and I'm not alone. Although I always take them with a grain of salt, the average analyst rating of the 33 analysts currently issuing ratings on BlackBerry is $6.75. With BlackBerry's shares currently trading hands at right around $8.50, this represents a pretty significant premium to what the pros believe BlackBerry's worth.

Don't get me wrong. BlackBerry and John Chen certainly deserve some credit for making meaningful progress in turning around the ailing Canadian smartphone maker. However, in looking at BlackBerry from 30,000 feet, I find myself worrying that its stock price might appear overly optimistic where we find it today.

A better bet than BlackBerry for 2014
There's a huge difference between a good stock, and a stock that can make you rich. The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for 2014, and it's one of those stocks that could make you rich. You can find out which stock it is in the special free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2014." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

The article BlackBerry Returns to Its Roots With This Recent Move originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Andrew Tonner owns shares of Apple. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Apple and Google. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Is the Stock Market Really About to Pop? Why One 'Bubble' Legend Says No

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The next Bubble
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As the stock market continues its amazing run into record territory, it seems as if every day there's a new expert calling for a top -- often comparing the current state of the market to that of the late '90s, right before the Internet bubble popped. However, Dan Zanger, arguably the most successful investor during that period, disagrees.

"There is certainly some frothy behavior, with many stocks overpriced, while others are priced to perfection, " says Zanger. "However, this market is far from the 'bubble' behavior that we saw in 1998-2000."

Much of a bubble's behavior is rooted in herd mentality.

Zanger knows what he's talking about, having cut his teeth in the markets, with various degrees of success, in the early '90s. But it wasn't until he became a student of William O'Neil's CAN SLIM method, which looks for stocks with strong fundamentals and technically significant chart patterns, that he catapulted to the rarefied heights of the investing world.

Beginning in June of 1998, Zanger spent 18 months turning $10,775 into $18 million -- an unofficial world record for stock market investing -- which translates into a mind-blowing 164,000 percent return (and yes, he has the tax returns to prove it). Just five months later, as the bubble was getting ready to burst, that same account had grown to a massive $42 million dollars, a feat that Trader Monthly ranked among its 20 Greatest Trades of All Time.

Because of his unique experience, Zanger sees significant differences between the current market and the one he operated in during the bubble.

"Price movement in this market is nowhere near what we witnessed in the late '90s," he says. "Back then, you had stocks doubling in two days and some tripling in just five days. Most days, though, you were more likely to see many stocks running up $25 to $75 or stocks like Amazon going from $327 to $600 on the day of a 3-for-1 split. Today we see very few splits, and stocks are not racing up. It would be more accurate to say they are melting up slowly."

As impressive as his returns were during the bubble years, perhaps even more impressive is the fact that when the market crashed, unlike other high-flying investors who lost everything, Zanger saw the warning signs and was able to emerge from the carnage with a good chunk of his fortune intact. So what signs would he look for to determine if the market is nearing the end of a bubble phase?

"Well, excessive price-to-earnings ratios would be a good sign, for one," he says. "For example, the S&P 500 (^GPSC) trading above a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 and stocks racing up in a manner similar to what we just saw with Twitter would qualify. This stock has behaved very much like an Internet stock from the bubble years, going from $41 to $75 in just a few weeks. But as I mentioned before, this same price action would more typically have happened in just a few days during a true bubble like 1998-2000."

In the years since the bubble burst, Zanger has remained involved in the markets, investing his own money and running Chartpattern.com, where he interacts with other investors on a regular basis, helping to teach them the rules and strategies that made him successful. And as for the chances of another true bubble in the markets, Zanger's skeptical -- at least in the short term.

"Much of a bubble's behavior is rooted in herd mentality and fueled by a new set of rookie investors who believe the market will never go down," he says. "I think there are far too many people today who remember the bubble bursting in 2000, so I doubt there are enough people with an undeniable belief in the market -- something that would be needed to make a bubble happen again. At least I hope that's the case."

No man is an island, or even a peninsula, so I encourage you to give me your feedback in the comments below. I also want to hear what other topics you'd like me to write about, so please let me know either by connecting with me on Twitter, or via email.

 

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Why Container Store Group Inc Shares Plunged

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Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of storage products retailer Container Store Group Inc  plummeted 22% today after its quarterly results and outlook disappointed Wall Street.

So what: The stock has rallied nicely since its November IPO on high growth expectations, but the third-quarter results -- EPS of $0.11 on a revenue increase of just 7% -- coupled with downbeat sales guidance for Q4, is forcing analysts to quickly recalibrate their estimates. While the company continues to grow same-store sales and adjusted profit at a solid pace, today's results suggest that it isn't growing fast enough to justify its seemingly lofty forward P/E.


Now what: Management now sees full-year adjusted EPS of $0.40 on revenue of $754 million, versus the consensus of $0.38 and $756.2 million. "With 63 stores today, we have a long runway of growth ahead of us as we expand our store base to realize the 300+ store opportunity that we believe exists," Chairman and CEO Kip Tindell reassured investors. More important, with the stock now off more than 15% from its post-IPO highs, today's hiccup might be providing Fools with a great chance to buy into those long-term growth prospects. 

Another compelling pick for 2014
There's a huge difference between a good stock, and a stock that can make you rich. The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for 2014, and it's one of those stocks that could make you rich. You can find out which stock it is in the special free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2014." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

The article Why Container Store Group Inc Shares Plunged originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Brian Pacampara has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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At Least J.C. Penney Has a Great Personality

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When you have nothing nice to say, give vague glowing praise that doesn't answer the question at hand.

  • How does she look? She has a nice personality.
  • Would you recommend this former employee? He was punctual.
  • How did the holiday-shopping season go, J.C. Penney ? The company is pleased with its performance for the holiday period, showing continued progress in its turnaround efforts.

In short, J.C. Penney has a nice personality -- and it's punctual -- because it's not much to look at and it's not getting the job done.

The struggling department-store chain didn't have a problem bragging about posting positive comps in October for the first time since 2011. It had no problem getting specific when boasting about its 10.1% spike in same-store sales in November. But merely sticking to earlier guidance and voicing pleasure in its turnaround efforts isn't enough.


Growing after posting a horrendous holiday quarter a year earlier was never going to be a major achievement. Comps plunged 31.7% during last year's seasonally relevant period. We never got the monthly breakdown for how November, December, and January went, but it should have been clear that a mere 10.1% increase in November wasn't going to be enough to call this a turnaround. Even then it's not as if J.C. Penney was a lot of help. Comps don't take us beneath the surface to what could very well be squeezed margins on clearance sales. We saw promotional pricing play a major role in October's uptick, and it probably wasn't encouraging to see the merchandise inventory balloon from $3.36 billion to $3.75 billion in the 12-month period through the end of October.

Something's just not right at J.C. Penney, and not just because analysts see another quarterly loss during a reporting period that will find most of its peers soaking in profitability. 

"The market may be cheering the double-digit uptick in comps, but it's an incomplete story," I wrote last month. "Save your applause for when J.C. Penney has actually earned it."

Well, it still hasn't earned the applause. By reiterating its outlook for the quarter that ends this month, J.C. Penney is saying that it still sees positive comps for the entire quarter. But after kicking things off with a 10.1% surge in November, it's not much of a guarantee that December and January will be acceptable. 

Given the market's reaction to its incomplete holiday update, it's safe to say that what "pleases" J.C. Penney is not pleasing investors.

Shop for a real winner in retail
To learn about two retailers with especially good prospects, take a look at The Motley Fool's special free report: "The Death of Wal-Mart: The Real Cash Kings Changing the Face of Retail." In it, you'll see how these two cash kings are able to consistently outperform and how they're planning to ride the waves of retail's changing tide. You can access it by clicking here.

The article At Least J.C. Penney Has a Great Personality originally appeared on Fool.com.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Why TASER International, Inc.'s Shares Jumped

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Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of TASER International, jumped 14% today after announcing new orders.

So what: Thirteen customers ordered new TASER weapons and 29 agencies are deploying TASER SMART weapons or upgrades. Most of the orders took place in the fourth quarter of last year and a dollar amount wasn't announced.  


Now what: What's important is that TASER International is seeing solid order flow for new products from law enforcement. Investors are hoping to see significant growth this year, and with a forward P/E ratio of 54, the expectations are high. I'd like to see more value in shares or bottom-line growth before jumping in, but this order is a step in that direction, so fourth-quarter numbers will be key for the stock.

A stock just for you
TASER International has high hopes for 2014 and so does one of our top stock picks. The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for 2014, and it's one of those stocks that could make you rich. You can find out which stock it is in the special free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2014." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

The article Why TASER International, Inc.'s Shares Jumped originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Travis Hoium has no position in any stocks mentioned, and neither does The Motley Fool. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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3D Systems Unveils Printer for Your Kitchen and Alan Mulally Squashes Microsoft Rumors

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Despite positive private sector jobs data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading lower in mid-afternoon trading, down 0.54%. Private sector payrolls increased by 238,000 jobs last month in the U.S., according to Automatic Data Processing. That figure is good enough to be the highest ADP estimate since November 2012 and was much higher than the expected increase of 200,000 jobs. With that in mind, and as investors wait for the Fed minutes this afternoon, here are some companies making headlines today.

Inside the Dow, Boeing continues to bring in orders for its 737 airplane family and, according to Reuters, Indian budget airline SpiceJet has agreed to buy roughly 40 737 airplanes worth more than $4 billion at list prices. Boeing hasn't officially announced the deal, and SpiceJet declined to comment thus far, although the former did say on Monday that unidentified airlines had placed orders near the end of 2013 for about 164 such medium-sized aircraft. 

Ford CEO Alan Mulally. Photo credit: Ford.

Outside the Dow, Ford's share price is climbing roughly 1.5% today after CEO Alan Mulally finally put to rest speculation about him remaining a candidate for the Microsoft CEO position. "I would like to end the Microsoft speculation because I have no other plans to do anything other than serve Ford," Mulally told the Associated Press in an interview. With rumors swirling for months, it became obvious that this wasn't going to disappear without definitive answers. With the Detroit auto show rapidly approaching Mulally took the right steps to squash these rumors so it wouldn't distract from Ford's important unveiling of its next-generation F-150, its most profitable vehicle.


While 3D Systems and its printers still may seem like science fiction to many consumers, the company continues to crank out innovative products with real applications. Yesterday, 3D Systems introduced the ChefJet series of 3-D printers, which is an entirely new, kitchen-ready printer for edibles. Yes, it's true, you'll soon be able to print food from your own kitchen.

The ChefJet 3-D printer is a countertop-sized printer that will be ideal for single-color confections and cake toppers. The printers materials will be available in multiple flavors including chocolate, vanilla, mint, sour apple, cherry, and watermelon. 3D Systems new ChefJet printer will initially come at a high price -- up to $5,000 -- and will be available in a kitchen near you in the back half of 2014.

3-D printing has the ability to revolutionize the way the world goes about many processes and products, and investing in the right company could be a special opportunity that comes once a generation. 

Will 3D printing end the 'Made-In-China' era?
For the first time since the early days of this country, we're in a position to dominate the global manufacturing landscape thanks to a single, revolutionary technology: 3D printing. Although this sounds like something out of a science fiction novel, the success of 3D printing is already a foregone conclusion to many manufacturers around the world. The trick now is to identify the companies -- and thereby the stocks -- that will prevail in the battle for market share. To see the three companies that are currently positioned to do so, simply download our invaluable free report on the topic by clicking here now.

The article 3D Systems Unveils Printer for Your Kitchen and Alan Mulally Squashes Microsoft Rumors originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Daniel Miller owns shares of Ford. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of 3D Systems and Ford and has the following options: short January 2014 $20 puts on 3D Systems. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Is Investing in Apple a Sin?

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Apple hasn't been a stranger to analyst downgrades since margins began slipping and it began yielding market share to Android products. However, it was treated to one of its more colorful markdowns this week when Standpoint Research analyst Ronnie Moas knocked the stock on ethical concerns.

Moas downgraded the stock -- from hold to sell -- arguing that it's wrong for Apple to be paying its workers $2 an hour while it's hoarding away nearly $150 billion in cash and marketable securities. Moas argues:

They have workers who are doing back-breaking and eye-burning work in depressed states of mind and in many instances have already committed suicide... Instead of treating their employees like human beings, they are treated like animals. If it were not for their employees, Apple would not be where it is today. But instead of giving these people a better life, they give these people the bare minimum and defend this action with the argument that the wage is higher than the average there and in-line with what their competitors are paying.

To be fair, $2 an hour is roughly what Foxconn -- the Chinese contract manufacturer that makes smartphones for Apple and its rivals -- is shelling out to its employees. Under that argument, investors should be avoiding most of the leading makers of consumer electronics. After all, it's not just Apple. 


Sure, just because everybody's doing it doesn't make it right. That's not much of a counter to Moas' bearish thesis. However, Apple is a company that sells products worldwide. Why should it be obligated to piece its components together in the country with the most expensive labor rate?

It's not even just about the money. President Barack Obama pleaded with Steve Jobs to bring production back into this country at a dinner three years ago.  

"Those jobs aren't coming back," Jobs reportedly responded. Forget about how much more all smartphones would cost to assemble closer to home. Jobs argued that Asia offers shorter lead times and a greater pool of skilled factory workers. Money issues aside, it would take longer to roll out new products that were made domestically. 

Apple isn't Ebenezer Scrooge. Apple Store locations in this country pay far more than the other retailers in the same mall. Apple's iPhone kicked off the smartphone revolution that keeps many wireless carrier stores in business. 

Foxconn isn't perfect. Apple is no saint. However, it just seems wrong to be talking down the Cupertino giant because it makes too much money. 

There's certainly a place for social investing, and there are plenty of Fools around here who are passionate about that. However, the best social investing stock ideas come from companies where the practices result in stronger operations. You don't just buy into Chipotle Mexican Grill because of its "food with integrity" mantra. Chipotle's a winner because the queues are long with burrito-seeking fans and its high standards create tastier eats. Chipotle's thought process is admirable, but it's not the secret sauce behind years of consistently positive quarterly comps.  

One can always argue that Apple can do more, and that's probably a fair assessment of every single company. However, to downgrade a stock on moral grounds when outsourcing production to a more expensive contract manufacturer wouldn't necessarily result in a better product or improve consumer perception is just sloppy analysis.

Picking a winning stock for 2014 also isn't a sin
There's a huge difference between a good stock, and a stock that can make you rich. The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for 2014, and it's one of those stocks that could make you rich. You can find out which stock it is in the special free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2014." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

The article Is Investing in Apple a Sin? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Apple and Chipotle Mexican Grill. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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The Polar Vortex Is Putting a Freeze on This Industry

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Chicago during the Polar Vortex. Source: Edward stojakovic on Flickr.

Wicked winter weather is wreaking havoc on North America. Schools are closed, and flights are delayed as it's colder in some spots of America than in the South Pole. Not only that, but the deep freeze is putting a freeze on America's oil and gas industry.


Frozen production
We're seeing companies like ConocoPhillips and Continental Resources warn investors that oil and gas production won't meet expectations because of the cold. The rough winter forced ConocoPhillips to lower its fourth-quarter output to 1.475 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, or Boe/d. That's down from a forecast that had America's top independent oil companies producing as much as 1.525 million Boe/d on the quarter.

Meanwhile, North Dakota's top Bakken Shale producer Continental Resources had to temporarily halt well completion operations in the state. This could have an impact on its profits if the company's efforts to drill new wells remain frozen by the weather.

This week's deep freeze is just the latest in weather issues faced by American oil and gas companies this year. In November, severe winter weather forced Texas-focused Pioneer Natural Resources Company to warn its investors that production was held back. Pioneer noted that the weather significantly affected its production and drilling operations. It was hit hard by "heavy icing and low temperatures that resulted in power outages, facility freeze-ups, truck curtailments, and limited access to its production and drilling facilities" according to a press release issued by the company.

Thawing prices
However, what's bad news for some producers is good news for others. Rising natural gas prices is providing a boost to top producers. For example, Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation's stock is up more than 10% over the past month, and up 3% this week alone. As one of the lowest cost producers of natural gas in the country, Cabot Oil & Gas makes money even if gas prices are low. Because of that, it really turns on the profits when gas prices go up.

If winter's fury continues, it could fuel quite a rally for natural gas producers like Southwestern Energy Company . As the fifth largest natural gas producer in the U.S. Lower 48, Southwestern Energy has the fuel we need to keep warm this winter. Even better for its investors, as gas prices rise, so does the value of the company's natural gas reserves. Last year, the company was crushed when it was forced to write down nearly $3 billion in oil and gas properties because of the low price of natural gas. Rising gas prices ensure that won't happen again this year, and it might even make those properties valuable once again.

Investor takeaway
The Polar Vortex is freezing out most of America. It's causing some of our booming oil production to be shut down in parts of the country. However, it is helping to thaw out the price of natural gas. That could really fuel the returns of top natural gas producers like Cabot Oil & Gas and Southwestern Energy. 

Here's how you can invest in America's energy boom
Record oil and natural gas production is revolutionizing the United States' energy position. That's one reason our weather is now impacting prices. To learn more about the boom, and how to invest in the companies set to profit from it, check our special free report, "3 Stocks for the American Energy Bonanza." Don't miss out on this timely opportunity; click here to access your report -- it's absolutely free. 

The article The Polar Vortex Is Putting a Freeze on This Industry originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Matt DiLallo owns shares of ConocoPhillips. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Big Solar Projects Are Driving Solar Stocks

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For today's solar manufacturers, it's just as important to have strong downstream demand as it is to have low-cost manufacturing. That's why a number of deals signed in the past week are such a strong sign from solar companies hoping to see operations continue to improve in 2014.

Especially in China, where losses have been mounting and facilities have been running below capacity, it's important to win large-scale projects. Here are some of the biggest deals signed by solar companies just in the past few days.

  • ReneSola signed a contract to supply 420 MW, or about a quarter's worth of shipments, with a project developer in Japan. This has been a high-margin market for solar manufacturers recently, so it could help both sales and margins over the next two years, when shipments are scheduled.  
  • Yesterday, Canadian Solar signed a supply agreement for four projects in North Carolina totaling 25.3 MW. It also completed a 30 MW project in Western China that was developed by its subsidiary CSI Solar Power. 
  • Yingli Green Energy signed an agreement to form a joint ventur with Shuozhou Coal Power to develop solar projects in China. The companies have already worked together to build 20 MW of utility scale projects.  
  • Hanwha SolarOne signed a memorandum of understanding to supply OneRoof Energy with 50 MW of modules and work together to identify ways to more efficiently install residential solar systems in the future. It will also supply 11.5 MW to Ikaros Solar for projects in the United Kingdom.

Big supply contracts are becoming the norm in the solar industry, and these are just a few examples of how manufacturers are taking advantage. It's also projected that the first half of this year will be strong for solar installers, so locking up contracts early will ensure they're not left searching for demand.


Most importantly, this should lead to better financials. We've seen module sale prices tick higher in the last three quarters, and ReneSola is expecting an increase again in Q1 of 2014 to $0.68 per watt. That's from a low of $0.61 per watt a year ago, so if manufacturers can increase utilization and increase their sale price per watt, there is tremendous operational upside.

Foolish bottom line
Canadian Solar has already turned improving demand for projects into a profitable quarter, and ReneSola, Yingli Green Energy, and Hanwha SolarOne will need to as well to continue moving higher. 2014 will be a turning point for solar manufacturers, and winning projects like these is one key piece to winning long term.

Another great energy stock for 2014
The solar industry is upending electricity around the world, but there's one company that's upending the world's largest oil cartel. And Warren Buffett is so confident in this company's can't-live-without-it business model, he just loaded up on 8.8 million shares. An exclusive, brand-new Motley Fool report reveals the company we're calling OPEC's Worst Nightmare. Just click HERE to uncover the name of this industry-leading stock... and join Buffett in his quest for a veritable LANDSLIDE of profits!

The article Big Solar Projects Are Driving Solar Stocks originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Travis Hoium has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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Why Galena Biopharma Inc. Shares Roared Higher

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Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Galena Biopharma  advanced as much as 28% after the biopharmaceutical company focused on developing cancer therapies received two price target hikes from Wall Street firms and announced the first patient enrollment in a phase 2 clinical trial for its GALE-301 treatment.

So what: GALE-301 is a cancer immunotherapy that targets the folate binding protein that is overexpressed in breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancer. Immunotherapy research (teaching the body's immune system to recognize and fight back against cancer cells) was very popular among investors in 2013, and the start of a pivotal phase 2 study is certain to excite shareholders. Two price target hikes following this news are also giving shares a lift. Maxim Group raised its price target to $9 from $6, while Piper Jaffray boosted its price target to $7 from $2.75.


Now what: Although shareholders are clearly excited about its FBP immunotherapy, much of Galena's valuation is baked into the success of NeuVax which is currently in phase 3 trials. Unfortunately, the breast cancer trial involving NeuVax is going to take years, so investors will be waiting quite some time without many catalysts. I'm not saying NeuVax won't be successful, but this mammoth rally in Galena's share price is likely unwarranted until we get to see that top-line phase 3 NeuVax data.

Here's a company you should be following closely, instead
There's a huge difference between a good stock, and a stock that can make you rich. The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for 2014, and it's one of those stocks that could make you rich. You can find out which stock it is in the special free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2014." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

The article Why Galena Biopharma Inc. Shares Roared Higher originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Sean Williams has no material interest in any companies mentioned in this article. You can follow him on CAPS under the screen name TMFUltraLong, track every pick he makes under the screen name TrackUltraLong, and check him out on Twitter, where he goes by the handle @TMFUltraLong. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 

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A Promising Development for Noble Energy

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This past weekend, Noble Energy signed a 20-year agreement to supply $1.2 billion worth of natural gas from Israel's offshore Leviathan gas field to the Palestine Power Generation Co. (PPGC).

Noble and its partners, Delek Drilling, Avner Oil Exploration, and Ratio Oil Exploration, will sell as much as 4.75 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas from Leviathan to a plant that PPGC will build in the city of Jenin, located in the Palestinian-controlled northern West Bank.

Leviathan, which Noble discovered in 2010, is estimated to hold as much as 19 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and is one of the largest deepwater gas discoveries of the past decade. Production from the field is expected to commence in late 2017. Noble will serve as the field's operator, with a 39.66% stake, while Delek Drilling and Avner Oil Exploration each hold a 22.67% interest, with Ratio Oil Exploration accounting for the remaining 15%.


A big step for Noble
Analysts looked favorably on the deal, which marks the first long-term agreement to export gas from Leviathan to surrounding markets. According to Oppenheimer's Fadel Gheit, Noble will generate stronger returns by selling gas to nearby Middle Eastern countries, as opposed to exporting it to more distant markets, because of the relatively lower capital investment involved.

Supplying areas like Palestine or Jordan would only require constructing "a few miles of pipeline," which would be significantly cheaper than building liquefied natural gas export facilities to ship the gas to Europe and other more distant regions, he said in a recent interview.

In addition, the metrics of the deal came in better than expected. A supply commitment of 4.75 BCM of natural gas at a price of $1.2 billion implies that Noble and its partners will receive roughly $7.15 per Mcf, or thousand cubic feet, of natural gas. That's markedly higher than the $6.25 per Mcf that analysts expected, according to a recent note by Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

Overall, Noble's opportunity in the eastern Mediterranean is truly phenomenal. In addition to Leviathan, the company boasts large stakes in the Tamar gas field off the Israeli coast and Cyprus' Aphrodite field, which represent a combined resource potential of roughly 40 trillion cubic feet. As these fields are developed over the next several years, they should generate strong returns and cash flow for the company, assuming cost overruns and delays can be avoided and Israeli export policies remain favorable.

Noble's other opportunities
But Noble's not just a one-trick pony. It's also got a sizable portfolio of onshore U.S. assets, primarily in Colorado's DJ Basin and Pennsylvania's Marcellus Shale, which provide a strong and stable production base. Roughly 70% of the company's 2014 capital budget will be allocated to onshore U.S. plays.

In the DJ Basin, the company should benefit from a recent acreage swap with Anadarko Petroleum that gives it a more contiguous land position in the play, as well as efficiencies resulting from centralization of field facilities and less sand work. With plans to drill roughly 320 operated horizontal wells in the basin, Noble expects production to grow by at least 20% this year.

In the Marcellus, the company should continue to benefit from drilling longer laterals in the wet gas region of the play, which resulted in 50% sequential production growth during the third quarter. It also reported solid production figures for wells drilled by partner CONSOL Energy in the dry gas region of the play, thanks in part to using shorter spacing between frac stages. The joint venture partners expect to drill 170 Marcellus wells this year.

Sitting pretty
Having secured its first long-term agreement to supply gas from Leviathan, and with more agreements to supply either Israel or other nearby markets likely to be announced this year, Noble is sitting pretty. With several years of inventory across the U.S. and the eastern Mediterranean, as well as exciting exploratory prospects in Equatorial Guinea and the Gulf of Mexico, Noble is poised to deliver peer-leading production growth over the next several years that should handsomely reward its shareholders.

Noble Energy is just one of many companies helping drive the record oil and natural gas production that's revolutionizing the United States' energy position. That's why the Motley Fool is offering a comprehensive look at three energy companies set to soar during this transformation in the energy industry. To find out which three companies are spreading their wings, check out the special free report, "3 Stocks for the American Energy Bonanza." Don't miss out on this timely opportunity; click here to access your report -- it's absolutely free.

 

The article A Promising Development for Noble Energy originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Arjun Sreekumar has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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